Consumption Behavior of German Households
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Intertemporal and Intratemporal Household Consumption Allocation – Empirical Analysis and Policy Reform Simulation based on German Microdata INAUGURAL-DISSERTATION zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades eines Doktors der Wirtschaftswissenschaft (doctor rerum politicarum) des Fachbereichs Wirtschaftswissenschaft der Freien Universität Berlin vorgelegt von Diplom-Volkswirt Martin Beznoska Berlin, 2013 Erstgutachter: Prof. Viktor Steiner, Freie Universität Berlin Zweitgutachter: Prof. Frank Fossen, Freie Universität Berlin Tag der Disputation: 25. Oktober 2013 Intertemporal and Intratemporal Household Consumption Allocation – Empirical Analysis and Policy Reform Simulation based on German Microdata Thesis Acknowledgements First of all, I would like to thank my principle supervisor, Viktor Steiner, who encouraged me to write a doctoral thesis and continuously supported me. While writing my thesis, I have benefited a lot from his thoughtful suggestions and the inspiring and motivating discussions we had. I would also like to thank my second supervisor, Frank Fossen, for writing the secondary report and for the helpful comments in several seminars at Freie Universität Berlin. I would also like to especially thank my co-author Richard Ochmann for the great collab- oration on our two papers (Chapter1 and Chapter2) and his continuous support and help covering all kinds of challenges of scientific work. I learned a lot from him and benefited from his LATEX skills. I also want to thank him for reading major parts of this thesis, giving helpful comments and correcting language mistakes. I had the opportunity to write my doctoral thesis as a research associate in the public economics department of DIW Berlin. I would like to thank all members of the department for helpful comments, the support and the motivating atmosphere during all stages of my work. My special thank goes to Peter Haan, the head of the department. I am grateful to him for his intense support and for being always available for discussion. Another special thank goes to Stefan Bach for the interesting collaboration on policy consulting projects, which were very instructive experiences. Moreover, I profited very much from his acquisition of project funding. Throughout my work at DIW Berlin and FU Berlin I benefited from discussions with my colleagues: Hermann Buslei, Ronny Freier, Johannes Geyer, Luke Haywood, Daniel Kempt- ner, Holger Lüthen, Kai-Uwe Müller, Davud Rostam-Afschar, Erika Schulz, Martin Simmler, Johanna Storck, Natasha Volodina and Katharina Wrohlich. I am also grateful to Nicole Haase for always helping me in administrative issues, to Adam Lederer who corrected lan- guage mistakes and to the IT department of DIW Berlin for providing the great research infrastructure. Supply of the EVS and the LWR data by the Federal Statistical Office (Statistisches Bundesamt) via scientific use file or research data center (Forschungsdatenzentrum) is also gratefully acknowledged. I would like to thank the whole team of the Forschungsdatenzentrum iii iv and especially Matthias Klumpe for the support and commitment of providing the data. Last but not least, I want to thank Christoph Strangfeld for long and intensive discussions about economics, as well as Matthias Manhertz for reading parts of this thesis and correcting language mistakes. I would also like to thank my brother and my parents for the support during the whole time. Contents Preface 1 1 The Consumption-Savings Decision in the Short-Run9 1.1 Introduction.....................................9 1.2 The Model...................................... 13 1.2.1 Consumption and Savings in a Demand Context............. 14 1.3 Empirical Strategy................................. 17 1.3.1 Definition of Consumption and Savings.................. 17 1.3.2 Estimation.................................. 18 1.3.3 Quantile Regressions............................ 19 1.4 Data and Descriptive Evidence on Household Consumption........... 20 1.4.1 Data and Simulation of the Tax Rate................... 20 1.4.2 Descriptive Micro Evidence on Household Consumption......... 21 1.5 Results........................................ 23 1.6 Conclusion...................................... 30 1.7 Appendix - Data and Definition of Income and Savings............. 32 1.7.1 Data..................................... 32 1.7.2 Treatment of Durables........................... 32 1.7.3 Definition of Income and Savings..................... 33 1.7.4 Imputation of Wealth............................ 34 1.8 Appendix - A Module of Income Taxation.................... 36 1.9 Appendix - Interest Rate Elasticity........................ 44 1.10 Appendix - Results................................. 45 2 Consumption over the Life Cycle - The Relevance of Liquidity Constraints 49 2.1 Introduction..................................... 49 2.2 The Model...................................... 52 2.2.1 The Income Process and the Consumption Growth Equation...... 53 v CONTENTS vi 2.2.2 The Excess Sensitivity Test........................ 55 2.2.3 The Switching Regression Approach.................... 56 2.3 Data and Descriptive Evidence.......................... 58 2.3.1 Data..................................... 58 2.3.2 Construction of the Pseudo-Panel..................... 59 2.3.3 Descriptives................................. 60 2.4 Results........................................ 61 2.4.1 Results for the Income Process...................... 62 2.4.2 Results for the Shock Model........................ 63 2.4.3 Results for the Excess Sensitivity Test.................. 68 2.5 Conclusion...................................... 70 2.6 Appendix - Results................................. 72 3 A Demand System of Energy, Mobility and Leisure 79 3.1 Introduction..................................... 79 3.2 A Demand System Involving Leisure....................... 81 3.3 Data and Empirical Strategy............................ 84 3.3.1 Lewbel Prices................................ 84 3.3.2 Data Issues and the Constructing of the Commodity "Leisure"..... 85 3.3.3 Estimation.................................. 86 3.3.4 Combining the Extensive and Intensive Elasticities of Leisure...... 92 3.4 Descriptive Evidence................................ 93 3.5 Results........................................ 98 3.6 Interim Conclusion................................. 109 3.7 The Incidence of the Green Taxes on Gasoline and Diesel in Germany..... 110 3.8 Data for the Microsimulation........................... 111 3.9 Results from the Distributional and Welfare Analysis.............. 112 3.10 Conclusion...................................... 116 3.11 Appendix - Descriptives.............................. 118 3.11.1 Distribution of the Simulated Marginal Tax Rates............ 118 3.11.2 Distributions of the Hours Worked by Year and Subsample....... 120 3.12 Appendix - Results................................. 122 3.12.1 Heckman Wage Equations......................... 122 3.12.2 Discrete Choice Participation Model and Demand System Estimation - Parameters.............. 125 3.12.3 Demand System Estimation - Uncompensated Elasticities....... 131 CONTENTS vii General Conclusions 133 List of Tables 139 List of Figures 143 Bibliography 154 Summary 155 German Summary 159 Preface Motivation Since 2000, an increasing inequality of incomes and wealth, as well as frequently appearing global macroeconomic turbulences have put no longer considered research questions back on the agenda.1 In times of volatile financial markets and income and a growing inequality, questions about the welfare of people and of the economy gain importance. Volatility and a trend of increasing concentrations at the tails of the welfare distribution yielded a rethinking in economic research and fiscal policy. The theory of Keynes(1936) got a comeback as a guideline for stabilization policy in terms of the crisis. In micro analysis, welfare economists are searching for new ways to define true economic wealth and to measure the wealth of people and distributional analyses as well as economically efficient and sophisticated methods of redistribution are of interest among economists. Furthermore, increased public debt and deficits due to the financial crisis in 2008 and the lasting Euro crisis force governments in Europe and the United States to increase the public revenue. The thesis at hand focuses on several issues regarding the consumption behavior of private households. The contributions of this dissertation have micro- and macroeconomic perspec- tives and implications relating to intertemporal consumption and the taxation of consumption goods. Due to increased public debt and deficits, the value-added tax (VAT) is seen as a cost- efficient instrument to raise the public revenue (see e.g. Alt, 1983) and there is a shift in the relevance for the public budget from income taxation toward this tax over the last decades in Germany. Though, recent studies on the tax incidence of the VAT find a regressive distri- butional effect, which means that the poorest individuals face the highest relative tax burden compared to their net income (see e.g. Ochmann, Bach, and Beznoska, 2012). Besides the value-added tax, there are other commodity taxes that became popular in the last years, for instance taxes on polluting goods in the course of a rising environmental awareness in the 1See for the evolution of income concentration Bach, Corneo, and Steiner(2009), and for an estimated wealth distribution Bach, Beznoska, and Steiner(2013), which both studies consider the case of Germany. 1 PREFACE