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LED LCD TV E-Reader LCD Monitor Mini Note 3D TV AMOLED OPPORTUNITIES Smart Phone Smart TV Flexible

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LED LCD TV E-Reader LCD Monitor Mini Note 3D TV AMOLED OPPORTUNITIES Smart Phone Smart TV Flexible Growth or Stagnation? - Opportunities & Challenges in Display Industry Jongchan Yoo Vice President Displaybank Co. Ltd., [email protected] URL : www.displaybank.com All contents of this file are copyright by the author and Displaybank Opportunities & Challenges Opportunities & Challenges Component Shortage Economic Crisis Oversupply CHALLENGES e-Reader y AMOLED str LED LCD TV du Smart TV In 3D TV lay Flexible sp Emerging Market Smart Phone Di Digital Broadcasting Mini Note FPTV LCD Monitor OPPORTUNITIES All contents of this file are copyright by the author and Displaybank 2 Contents Opportunities & Challenges in Display Industry Challenges • External Impact : Undermined Economy • Unbalance of Supply & Demand • Over-Investment of TFT LCD • Shortage in Key Component Opportunities • Strong Demand for LED LCD TV • 3D, New Criterion of Display • Various Personal Mobile Application • AMOLED, as post-TFT LCD? All contents of this file are copyright by the author and Displaybank Challenges Challenges •• ExternalExternal ImpactImpact :: UnderminedUndermined EconomyEconomy •• UnbalanceUnbalance ofof SupplySupply && DemandDemand •• OverOver--InvestmentInvestment ofof TFTTFT LCDLCD •• ShortageShortage inin KeyKey ComponentComponent All contents of this file are copyright by the author and Displaybank 4 External Impact : Undermined Economy Undermined Economy KRW/US$ Trend A survey taken in the last week of August by the polling firm StrategyOne suggests that fence sitting by home buyers will dramatically increase in the fourth quarter. Some 87 percent of consumers say they do not plan to make a big-ticket purchase (such as a house or car) in the next 3 to 4 months. Nearly half, 49 percent, say they have already delayed making a big-ticket purchase during the past few months. Only 13 percent said they plan to make a big purchase during the balance of the year. As they brace for a second downturn, Americans are cutting their spending and preparing for an extended financial siege. Just 5 percent think there will be a full economic recovery by the end of this year, and only another 21 percent see recovery taking place by the end of 2011. Half of all Americans polled (50 percent) see a recovery not coming until sometime after the end of 2011, and about a quarter (23 percent) doubt our economy will ever fully recover. Almost two in three Americans (65 percent) say a double-dip recession -- defined as a recession followed by a short-lived recovery, followed by another recession -- is now likely to happen. Among those who expect a double-dip recession, nearly half (44 percent) fear it will be worse than the first one, with 21 percent worried it will be "much more severe." Just 24 percent think the second recession will be less severe. As far as their personal finances, only one of four Americans expects to recover by the end of the year. Nearly half, 46 percent, don't expect to recover until the end of 2011 or later; 26 percent say they will never recover financially. "The American public -- characteristically optimistic and resilient -- is looking around and seeing more and more dark storm clouds approaching on the horizon," said Bradley Honan, senior vice president of StrategyOne. "Not only has confidence in the economy been severely undermined, there are now real, significant doubts emerging about our country." (Source : UPI, 9th Sep 2010, quotation from StrategyOne survey) (Source : KEB, Sep 2010) All contents of this file are copyright by the author and Displaybank 5 LCD Panel Over Supply Over Supply Worldwide TFT LCD Panel Demand & Supply Over Supply 0 ~ 8% Balance Q1'09 Q1'10 Q1'11 Q1'12 Q1'13 Q1'14 Demand Supply Glut (Source : ‘Large Area TFT-LCD Panel Supply & Demand Analysis’, Displaybank, Jun. 2010) All contents of this file are copyright by the author and Displaybank 6 ‘Glut’ effected to Price and Profit Over Supply Panel Price (US$) Glut Ratio(%) OPM(%) Q1'04 Q1'05 Q1'06 Q1'07 Q1'08 Q1'09 Q1'10 * OPM (Operating Profit Margin) : Sum of SEC, LGD, AUO, CMO and Sharp (Source : ‘Large Area TFT-LCD Panel Supply & Demand Analysis’, Displaybank, Jun. 2010) All contents of this file are copyright by the author and Displaybank 7 Over Investment to China Over Investment 2010 2011 2012 2013 Korea LGD - Gen8 (120K) SEC- Gen8 (70+30K) LGD- Gen8 (60+30K) Taiwan CMI - Gen8 (30K) AUO- Gen8 (50+30K) Japan IPS - Gen8 (45K) BOE- Gen6 (90K) China BOE- Gen8 (90K) Supply Capacity Trend CEC- Gen6 (60+20K) LongFei- Gen8 (90K) TCL - Gen8 (60K) SEC - Gen7.5 (100K) CEC - Gen8 (90K) AUO - Gen7.5 (90K) CMI - Gen8 (60K) Operating or under construction Decided the construction LGD - Gen8 (60+60K) Under discussion (Not fixed) BOE - Gen8 (60K) All contents of this file are copyright by the author and Displaybank 8 Key Component Shortage Component Shortage . LED BLU(LGP, LED Chip, Reflector...), Driver IC, Glass, POL... Factor – Fast Demand Growth Lead to Shortages on Raw Material and Production Capacity – Small-scale Productions on Various Products (Diversified Specs - Frame rate, BLU) – Due to Worsened Cost Competition, Avoids Supply Diversified Product Lineup HD CCFL 60Hz FHD FHD LED 60Hz HD CCFL 120Hz LED 120Hz HD HD 3D 240Hz CCFL 3D 120Hz All contents of this file are copyright by the author and Displaybank 9 BLU Key Components Supply Chain Component Shortage BLU Components Supply Chain Optical Component Film LGP Diffusion Plate Back Coating/Cutting Cutting/Polishing/Patterning Cutting Light Source CCFL (Ass’y) BLU Maker LCM TFT-LCD Module LED Chip LED PKG LED Module Others Electric Components Structures (Tape, etc) (Inverter, Driver, etc) (Chassis, Mold Frame, etc) New Components for Edge Type LED LCD TV (Source : ‘Light Guide Plate (LGP) for LED LCD TV 2010 ‘, Displaybank, Q1’10) All contents of this file are copyright by the author and Displaybank 10 LGP Shortage Situation Component Shortage LGP Manufacturing Process & Shortage Extrusion Patterning Sheet Cutting/ MMA PMMA (Printing/ BLU Maker (Casting Polishing Laser) Sheet) Raw material stage Process stage Large size Companies Specialized to Chemical Area Small/Medium size Companies Specialized to Process Area Shortage and takes rather longer Shortage and takes rather shorter to ease the situation to ease situation (Big investment amount and (Rather smaller investment amount and longer time to secure capacity) rather shorter time to secure capacity) Serious Shortage Shortage (Source : ‘Light Guide Plate (LGP) for LED LCD TV 2010 ‘, Displaybank, Q1’10) All contents of this file are copyright by the author and Displaybank 11 LED Weather Forecast by Segment Component Shortage LED Weather Forecast by Segment Short-term Long-term Price Trend Remarks Balance Balance Ingot makers increasing capacity but takes Ingot Shortage Shortage On a rise time to catch up rising demand Despite no problem with the capacity, Substrate Shortage Shortage On a rise there is a shortage of ingot Wafer and chip makers increasing capacity Wafer/Chip Balance Balance~oversupply On a fall by adding rapid MOCVD reinforcement Not enough growth engine Package Balance Balance~oversupply On a fall except for large-size BLU Application Balance Balance On a fall Lighting market’s growth is not fast enough Serious Not good situation OK Good situation (Source: ‘LED Package Market & Industry Outlook’ Displaybank, Q2’10) All contents of this file are copyright by the author and Displaybank 12 WW LED Packaging Demand Forecast Component Shortage Worldwide LED Packaging Demand, (Bil.Units) (Source: ‘LED Package Market & Industry Outlook’ Displaybank, Q2’10) All contents of this file are copyright by the author and Displaybank 13 Opportunities Opportunities .. StrongStrong DemandDemand forfor LEDLED LCDLCD TVTV .. 3D,3D, NewNew CriterionCriterion ofof DisplayDisplay .. VariousVarious PersonalPersonal MobileMobile ApplicationApplication .. AMOLEDAMOLED ,, asas postpost--TFTTFT LCD?LCD? All contents of this file are copyright by the author and Displaybank 14 TV Mega Trend Transition LED & 3D TV Smart TV Network 3D TV Connected TV Ultra Slim New Experience LED BLU Frame Rate Better Picture Quality , 120Hz/240Hz Slim Design Save Energy (Green) Full HD Improve Resolution Response Time Flat Panel Display Larger Size Better Picture Quality (Source: ‘3D TV Industry Analysis and Market Forecast’, Displaybank, Q2’10) All contents of this file are copyright by the author and Displaybank 15 WW TV Market Forecasts LED & 3D TV Worldwide TV Market & GDP Forecast 166 176 184 192 197 201 207 227 242 255 267 277 Mil.Units (Source: ‘Worldwide TV Shipment and Forecast’, Displaybank, Q3'10 / ‘World Economic Outlook’, IMF, Jul. 2010) All contents of this file are copyright by the author and Displaybank 16 Major TV Makers’ Business Plan in 2010 LED & 3D TV TV Business Plan by Major Brand (Mil.Units) 2009 2010 (Business Plan) LCD TV LCD TV LED LCD TV 3D TV LED LCD TV (%, in Max Case) Samsung 26.8 38 13 2.3 34% LG 16.3 28 6~7 1.0 23% Sony 15.1 23 62.3 26% Sharp 9.8 12 60.3 50% Philips 7.2 10 4~5 0.1~0.2 45% Toshiba 8.5 12 3~4 0.3 29% Panasonic 6.3 10 2~3 0.0 25% Vizio 5.9 8 3~4 0.5 44% Total 95.9 147 44~49 6.9 31% 2009 2010 (Business Plan) Plasma TV Plasma TV 3D TV 3D Plasma TV (%, in Max Case) Panasonic 5.7 7.5 1.2 15.6% Samsung 3.5 4.4 0.3 6.8% LGE 3.1 4.0 0.1 2.5% (Source: ‘LED LCD TV Makers Roadmap & Market Forecast’, Displaybank, Q2'10) All contents of this file are copyright by the author and Displaybank 17 TV Retail Price forecast (CCFL vs. LED) LED LCD TV 40” FHD LED TV (120Hz) VS CCFL TV (60Hz) Price Forecast (US$) 2,500 2,000 40”FHD LED TV (120Hz) x2.0 1,500
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