The China and Eurasia Forum Quartery Vol 5 No 2
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THE CHINA AND EURASIA FORUM QUARTERLY Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Volume 5, No. 2 May 2007 The China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly is a Central Asia-Caucasus & Silk Road Studies Program publication. The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program is a joint transatlantic independent and externally funded research and policy center. The Joint Center has offices in Washington and Uppsala, and is affiliated with the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University and the Department of Eurasian Studies of Uppsala University. It is the first Institution of its kind in Europe and North America, and is today firmly established as a leading center for research and policy worldwide, serving a large and diverse community of analysts, scholars, policy-watchers, business leaders and journalists. The Joint Center aims to be at the forefront of research on issues of conflict, security and development in the region; and to function as a focal point for academic, policy, and public discussion of the region through its applied research, its publications, teaching, research cooperation, public lectures and seminars. The China and Eurasia Forum is an independent forum which seeks to bring together regional experts, academics, government policy makers, and business leaders with an interest in the growing relationship between China and Eurasia. Focusing primarily on Sino-Central Asian, Sino-Russian, and Sino-Caucasian relations, the aim of China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly is to foster discussion and information sharing between a geographically distant community that recognizes the significance of China's emergence in this important part of the world. The journal aims to provide our readers with a singular and reliable assessment of events and trends in the region written in an analytical tone rather than a polemical one. Upcoming Issues * August 2007 – (Deadline for Submissions August 1, 2007). * November 2007 – (Deadline for Submissions October 1, 2007) Subscriptions Subscription inquiries and requests for hard copies should be addressed to: The China and Eurasia Forum, The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036, United States or The China and Eurasia Forum, The Silk Road Studies Program, Uppsala University, Box 514, SE-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden. E-mail: [email protected] or call +46 - 18 - 471 72 63. Visit our Website at: www.chinaeurasia.org The publisher and sponsors assume no responsibility for any statements of fact or opinion expressed in the articles or commentaries. Printed in Sweden by Uppsala University © Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, 2007. The China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly (ISSN 1653-4212) is published by the Central Asia- Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program <www.silkroadstudies.org>. Map used in the cover design is courtesy of the University of Texas Libraries, The University of Texas at Austin. THE CHINA AND EURASIA FORUM QUARTERLY Volume 5, No. 2 May 2007 Editor-in-Chief Niklas Swanström Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program Johns Hopkins University, Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies & Silk Road Studies Program, Sweden. This publication was made possible with the support of The Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs THE CHINA AND EURASIA FORUM QUARTERLY EDITORIAL BOARD Editor-in-Chief Niklas Swanström Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program Johns Hopkins University, U.S. & Silk Road Studies Program, Sweden E-mail: [email protected] Assistant Editors Christopher Len Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program E-mail: [email protected] Nicklas Norling Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program E-mail: [email protected] Senior Advisors Daniel L. Burghart Malia K. Du Mont National Defense University, Co-Founder of the China-Eurasia Forum United States and Former Associate Editor of the CEF Quarterly. Currently at the CNA Svante Cornell Corporation, United States Research Director of the Central Asia- Caucasus Institute, U.S. & Silk Road Matthew Oresman Studies Program, Sweden Co-Founder of the China-Eurasia Forum, Former Director of the China-Eurasia David M. Finkelstein Forum and Former Editor of the CEF The CNA Corporation, United States Quarterly, United States Pan Guang S. Frederick Starr Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, Chairman of the Central Asia-Caucasus China Institute, United States Bates Gill Farkhod Tolipov Center for Strategic and International National University of Uzbekistan, Studies, United States Uzbekistan Zhao Huasheng Dmitri V. Trenin Fudan University, China Carnegie Endowment for International James A. Millward Peace, Russia Georgetown University, United States THE CHINA AND EURASIA FORUM QUARTERLY Volume 5, No. 2 May 2007 Contents The New Nomads? The American Military Presence in Central Asia Dan Burghart .....................................................................................................5 Not Much of a Game: Security Dynamics in Central Asia Michael Mihalka ...............................................................................................21 A Match Made in Heaven? Strategic Convergence between China and Russia Kyrre Elvenes Brækhus and Indra Øverland .................................................... 41 Kazakhstan’s Security Interests and Their Implications for the U.S.- Kazakh Relationship Olga Oliker ......................................................................................................63 The Rise of Islam in Muslim Eurasia: Internal Determinants and Potential Consequences Galina M. Yemelianova ................................................................................... 73 On the Edge of the Big Muddy: The Taliban Resurgence in Afghanistan Thomas H. Johnson .......................................................................................... 93 The Hydroelectric Sector in Central Asia and the Growing Role of China Sebastien Peyrouse........................................................................................... 131 New Silk Road Paper Burma/Myanmar’s Ailments: Searching for the Right Remedy by Christopher Len and Johan Alvin This 108 page Silk Road Paper analyzes the myriad challenges facing Burma/Myanmar today and discusses the role the international community should play in order to help the country embark on a genuine and sustained path of recovery. The Paper is available from the Offices of the Joint Center cited on the inside cover of this issue, or freely downloadable in PDF format at www.silkroadstudies.org Editor’s Note Dear Colleagues and Friends, This spring has so far witnessed a number of events which will prove to have major implications for the security situation and the geo-political alignments in Eurasia. Russia has stepped up its activity in Central Asia, especially in the energy sector but also through an expanded military presence. The European Union has under Germany’s presidency for the first time demonstrated intent to take the strategic significance of Central Asia seriously. Meanwhile, the U.S.’ deployment at Manas airport in Kyrgyzstan is looking increasingly uncertain after a fatal shooting of a Kyrgyz citizen combined with a Kyrgyz domestic political opinion questioning a continued U.S. presence. China has maintained a relatively low profile in the past months and most of its attention seems focused on infrastructural development. This is both in the energy sector with the planned China-Uzbekistan pipeline as well as in the further development of the Asia-Europe transport corridor via Xinjiang and Central Asia. Despite the significance of Central Asia, the world’s attention is on Afghanistan. The country is spiraling downwards in radicalism and 2007 increasingly appears to be the make-or-break year for this country’s distressing development; either the Taliban will continue its offensive and further adapt the tactics used by insurgents in Iraq or the ISAF will be able to counter this before it reaches its tipping point. As Thomas Johnson argues in his article in this issue, what seems to be the key to win back the country is to win back the hearts and minds of the Afghan people. This needs to be complemented by a troop surge. Heavy investments in infrastructure and institution building may also be required to give Afghanistan tools to manage its own future. However, even if this could be accomplished, the U.S. and NATO’s mission in Afghanistan is increasingly becoming more and more dependent on Pakistan’s stability. Musharraf’s increasingly fragile position, his dependency on the radical Muttahida Majles-e-Amal, and the upcoming general elections will have major implications for stability in the region, and indeed for Afghanistan’s and Pakistan’s future. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has so far had limited success in acting as a security provider for the region and it is becoming increasingly evident that a continued NATO and U.S. presence in the region is crucial. Even if SCO has stepped up its activity in both the economic field, in cooperation with the CSTO, and its engagement with Pakistan, India, Iran, Mongolia, and Afghanistan, there is little in way of effective cooperation as of today. This spring has witnessed a number of exercises: the recent “Issyk Kul Anti-Terror-2007” 4 exercise in Kyrgyzstan in May and the CSTO’s