LONDON BOROUGH OF (HOUNSLOW HIGH STREET QUARTER) COMPULSORY PURCHASE ORDER 2015

PROOF OF EVIDENCE ON BEHALF OF THE ACQUIRING AUTHORITY ALISTAIR PARKER BA BPL MRICS MRTPI CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD

12 FEBRUARY 2016 A PROPOSAL FOR

PROOF OF EVIDENCE – ALISTAIR PARKER, BA BPL MRICS MRTPI

TABLEOFCONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION 2

PREAMBLE SCOPE OF EVIDENCE BACKGROUND

2 HOUNSLOW TOWN CENTRE 6

STATUS COMPETITON

3 PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT 11

ASSESSMENT

4 LEASING 13

HIGH STREET QUARTER

5 REQUIRED LAND AND OBJECTIONS 16

HIGH STREET

6 CONCLUSION 17

APPENDICES APP 1 GLA ‘ACCOMMODATING GROWTH’ JULY 2014 APP 2 WEST ALLIANCE ‘OVER THE EDGE’ OCTOBER 2008 APP 3 LONDON PLAN 2015 2.15 ANNEX 2 APP 4 GLA ‘LONDON TOWN CENTRE HEALTH CHECK ANALYSIS’ 2013 APP 5 GLA ‘LONDON TOWN CENTRE HEALTH CHECK ANALYSIS REPORT’ FEBRUARY 2009 APP 6 PMA ‘HOUNSLOW PROMIS RETAIL REPORT’ JANUARY 2016 APP 7 R TYM & PRTS ‘JOINT RETAIL NEEDS STUDY UPDATE’ MAY 2010 APP 8 WESTFIELD’S ANNUAL REPORT 2011 APP 9 PMA ‘HOUNSLOW PROMIS RETAIL REPORT’ OCTOBER 2007 APP 10 GVA ‘WEST LONDON RETAIL NEEDS STUDY’ 2007 APP 11 GLA ‘LONDON TOWN CENTRE HEALTH CHECK ANALYSIS’ 2006 APP 12 OUTER LONDON COMMISSION ‘LONDON PLAN 2011’ 3RD REPORT. JULY 2014 PARA 2.2.4 APP 13 GLA ‘TOWN CENTRES’ SPG JULY 2014 APP 14 DCLG ‘PLANNING FOR TOWN CENTRES’ DECEMBER 2009 APP 15 COMPETITION COMMISSION ‘ACQUISITION BY CINEWORLD GROUP OF PICTUREHOUSE’ REPORT 8 OCTOBER 2013 APP 16 INSPECTORS REPORT ‘EALING -LAND AT NEW BROADWAY AND BOND ST COMPULSORY PURCHASE ORDER 2014’ JULY 2015 APP 17 FOOD & BEVERAGE GAP ANALYSIS APP 18 BARRATT ANNUAL REPORT AND ACCOUNTS JUNE 2015 APP 19 GLA ‘HOUSING IN LONDON 2015’ SEPTEMBER 2015 APP 20 LB HOUNSLOW ‘LOCAL PLAN’ SEPTEMBER 2015

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1 INTRODUCTION

PREAMBLE 1.1 My name is Alistair Lewis Waterson Parker. I am a lead Partner of the Cushman & Wakefield Retail Development team (“C&W”) of 43-45 Portman Square, London. I hold a BA (Hons) degree and a Bachelor of Planning in Town & Country Planning from the University of Manchester. I am a professional Member of both the Royal Town Planning Institute and the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors and an RICS registered valuer. I am also a Member of the British Council of Shopping Centres Advisory Board, the British Property Federation Development & Regeneration Committee and the British Council of Shopping Centres Urban Development Committee. I am also a Member of the Outer London Commission advising the Mayor on how different parts of Outer London can realise their economic potential.

1.2 I have been engaged in the practice of leisure and retail planning, agency and development consultancy at C&W for 35 years and have led the firm’s Retail Development Department for some 20 years. The Department advises public authorities, developers, investors and landowners in formulating, evaluating and delivering major town and city centre retail, leisure and mixed-use property development throughout the UK and abroad. I have also advised retail companies on new departmental stores including the John Lewis Partnership.

1.3 A partner of Cushman & Wakefield since 1989, I have played an integral role in implementing a number of major developments collectively representing to date some 1.164 million sq m. On behalf of the public sector, these include LIVERPOOL ONE (234,000 sq m 1998-2008), CANTERBURY Whitefriars (41,800 sq m 1996-2005), BASINGSTOKE Festival Place (84,000 sq m 1994-2003) STAINES Two Rivers (36,000 sq m 1994-2001) and BANBURY Castle Quay (23,400 sq m 1992-2000). Notable experience abroad includes the CAIRO Citystars (740,000 sq m 1988-2004), BEIRUT Souks (128,000 sq m 1995-2001), SHARJAH Sahara (46,500 sq m 1997-2002) and LISBON Vasca da Gama (47,700 sq m 1994-1998). Many of these schemes incorporated substantial residential provision; for example, Cairo Citystars had 450 apartments and Liverpool One had over 500 flats.

1.4 My involvements on behalf of development companies in schemes with a multiplex cinema and supporting leisure include WOKING Peacocks (46,470 sq m 1992), HARROW St George (19,500 sq m 1996), ISLINGTON N1 Centre (13,600 sq m 2003), WREXHAM Eagles Meadow (37,100 sq m 2008) and EALING Filmworks (17,500 sq m retail & cinema plus 160 flats: current).

1.5 I have given expert evidence at numerous planning and compulsory purchase inquiries and in the High Court. Such includes the Compulsory Purchase Order (CPO) inquiries relevant to the schemes noted above at Liverpool, Canterbury, Basingstoke, Islington, Staines, Ealing and Banbury together other CPOs for stalled schemes such as SHEFFIELD New Retail Quarter.

1.6 C&W is one of the world's largest commercial real estate services firms with over 250 offices in 60 countries, employing more than 43,000 professionals. The firm advises on all aspects of commercial real estate. It has a pre-eminent retail/leisure reputation in the UK and is recognised as a market leader in retail development, agency, investment and consultancy across the UK. It holds both the Estates Gazette and the Property Awards for retail & leisure advisor/agency awards of the year for 2012, 2013 and 2014. C&W’s residential business, established in 1973, specialises in development, consultancy and disposal services throughout the UK, with a dedicated London New Homes agency.

1.7 I have been concerned in advising Wilson Bowden Developments Ltd (a wholly owned subsidiary of Barratt Developments Ltd) (“Barratts”) in their partnership with the London Borough of Hounslow (“the Council”) in respect of the potential development scheme and the subject matter of this Inquiry since early 2012. C&W has provided advice to Barratts on town planning policy, urban design, site valuations, development viability, occupier demand, investment requirements and development partnerships.

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1.8 I am well acquainted with the town centre facilities of Hounslow and the subject of this Inquiry and with the relevant background having been personally concerned as the development advisor to Barratts since November 2012 and to a previous client on this site in 2002-03.

SCOPE OF EVIDENCE 1.9 My expert evidence will cover the advice my practice gave to Barratts on further leisure and retail floor space within the town centre of Hounslow and the redevelopment of this site. I will comment on the present shopping and leisure provision and make observations as to the feasibility, viability, impact and implementation of the High St Quarter (HSQ) scheme as proposed by Barratts which has the benefit of planning consent.

1.10 In considering some of the matters at issue in this Inquiry, I have examined the present leisure and retail facilities in Hounslow and those competing facilities in West London. I have examined the disposition, content and layout of the High St Quarter scheme and have had regard to the interest received to date from major national companies to take representation within the scheme.

1.11 My evidence to this Inquiry falls into three parts:

a) a review of the existing leisure and retail provision within Hounslow town centre, past development and relevant policy;

b) an outline of the advice given by C&W to Barratts and a summary of how the proposals evolved; and

c) an analysis of the likely impact of the permitted scheme on the town centre and consideration as to its feasibility together with observations on its implementation from which I would conclude that:

i) successful implementation of the High St Quarter scheme is required to ensure the continued vitality and viability of the town centre as a whole;

ii) successful implementation of the High St Quarter scheme will rest upon securing tenants of quality and that discussions to date with such operators provide sufficient confidence in the scheme’s implementation;

iii) that there is sufficient demand to fully support the proposals, and;

iv) that successful implementation of the proposals fundamentally rests upon the confirmation of the Orders that are the subject matter of this Inquiry.

BACKGROUND 1.12 London has a complex polycentric pattern of over 200 international, metropolitan, major and district town centres providing some 10.9 million sq m of leisure and retail floorspace of which some 7.1 million sq m is in retail use. The town centre network is dynamic and the scale, role and function of centres changes over time. In 2008-2013, for example, London’s town centres experienced a net loss of floorspace (68,000 sq m), with a gain of 2.56 million sq m and loss of 2.62 million sq m (Appendix 1 GLA ‘Accommodating Growth in Town Centres’ July 2014)

1.13 The four yearly London town centre healthchecks (PAC/GLA 1994-2013) are critical to monitoring change in London’s town centres. The 2009 and 2013 GLA Town Centre Health Checks confirms changing patterns of retail within London. Whilst there was a modest 140,000 sq m net increase of retail across Greater London between 2007-2012, that reflected 175,000 sq m of new convenience floorspace of which 73% was ‘out of town’ balanced against 35,000 sq m of lost High Street comparison floorspace. Both Inner and Outer London town centres saw a significant decrease in their total comparison goods retail floor

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space; an average of 5% for Outer London centres and 3% for inner London centres. Space left by declining comparison retail has, to a degree, been taken by an increase in services and catering uses leaving increased vacancy rates. Outer London centres like Hounslow fared worse than inner London centres. Inner London’s town centres had a 5% vacancy rate increase but Outer London Town Centres saw an average rise of 43%. The healthchecks confirmed the rising concern over London’s major suburban centres. The West London Alliance, a partnership between seven West London local authorities, commissioned a report addressing the health of the major town centres in North and West London.

“Many of the boroughs have quite rightly placed town centres as a top priority for investment, but considerable efforts are needed to reverse the trends seen in outer London and to deal with new patterns of economic activity, residential settlement and movement”. (Appendix 2 West London Alliance ‘Over the Edge’ Oct 2008)

1.14 Hounslow is a major suburban centre that originally grew as a location at the junction of the old Roman road from Brentford to Staines and the post-Roman Bath Road, which were the principal routes into London from the west. The later Stuart/Georgian development resulted in a typical roadside settlement, with a number of coaching inns alongside houses fronting the ‘Great Bath Road’ with outbuildings and burgage plots to the rear. Such a pattern is still visible in the contemporary town layout. The area was dominated by Hounslow Heath and its military role to the extent that when the Metropolitan District railway arrived in 1883-1886, the end station was called ‘Hounslow Barracks’ (now Hounslow West). 1.15 It was the post WW1 growth supported by the second wave of suburban rail – particularly the Piccadilly Line extension in 1933 -and trams/trolley buses that led to the present inter war suburban town centre character with low development densities. The inter war expansion replaced the traditional industries with large scale rail, aircraft and tram manufacture and, following the building of the Great West Road, with corporate manufacturing along the ‘Golden Mile’; the largest industrial complex in West London. By the mid-1970s, half the labour force worked in manufacturing and were exposed badly to the manufacturing job losses in the 1980s. Heathrow airport’s expansion and the subsequent growth in service employment led to Hounslow still being a net importer of labour. 1.16 Hounslow town centre is a major suburban town centre classified as a Metropolitan Centre (Appendix 3 London Plan 2015 2.15 Annex 2), the 11th largest town centre in London. It faces strong competition from Kingston and Ealing as well as district centres like Staines and Feltham together with the 205,000 sq m centre at Shepherds Bush.

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1.17 The 1987 completion of the enclosed Treaty shopping centre by Taylor Woodrow in partnership with the Council significantly upgraded the town centre’s retail status. The development secured the 8,872 sq m Debenhams department store and the 1,951 sq m Gateway store (now Wilko) and still today represents some 25% of the prime retail provision. The 5.8 acre site was created by demolishing Library and Civic Hall buildings (1905) and infilling Treaty Road. Even after its completion, many thought the town centre remained under shopped.

“The need for a covered shopping centre in Hounslow had been obvious for many years and shoppers and traders were going elsewhere because of inadequate shopping units and chronic traffic problems. Hounslow's first covered centre, the Treaty Centre, opened in September 1987 after more than 10 years of planning. Today the 270,000-sq ft centre of 36 retail units, a Debenhams department store and Gateway supermarket is almost completely let and trading well. The centre has contributed substantially to the regeneration of central Hounslow, providing the town with much-needed facilities such as a public library and parking in addition to the superb range of shops. It has helped to redress the leakage of trade to Kingston and has become a successful centre in its own right. However, evidence suggests that the town is still relatively undershopped. The total retail floorspace has grown only 4.8% per year compared with the Greater London average of 7%” (Neville Pearson ‘Shopping Centre Development’ Estates Gazette 28 Oct 1989).

1.18 Nearly 20 years later, there was a modest improvement in the town’s offer with the Blenheim Centre (Phase 1) opening with a 7,153 sq m Asda food store together with 3,000 sq m of retail. There has been no major enhancement of the town’s offer for close to three decades.

1.19 In common with most town centres, Hounslow has faced ongoing challenges from the retail trends of spatial decentralisation (off centre retail), structural concentration (shift from independent to multiples), internet digitisation and expenditure polarisation (to larger centres).

“There is no doubt that retail in general is going through a time of fundamental transition. Shopping patterns are changing as customers learn to embrace new technology, both online and through mobile

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devices, and in terms of food shopping, switch to shopping little and often, in smaller-format foodstores. Retailers are being forced to adapt to these changing shopping patterns. Comparison goods retailers are reducing their store numbers, concentrating their activities in ‘flagship’ stores in high-profile locations, and embracing technology such as ‘click & collect’. Convenience goods retailers are focussing on increasing the number of smaller outlet stores whilst finding ways to improve the efficiency of their older, larger-format stores. There is no doubt that centres at all levels of the retail hierarchy across London need to adapt in order to ensure their long-term survival” (Appendix 1 GLA ‘Accommodating Growth in Town Centres’ July 2014 para 3.2.47).

1.20 The Council had long sought the HSQ redevelopment in the town centre on what was known as Key Site One. Identified in the 1990 Hounslow town plan, the subject site has been the subject of two planning resolutions to approve scheme applications, two planning permissions, two draft Compulsory Purchase Orders (1994 & 2015), two supplementary planning documents, four development agreements and six development partners nominated in 1993, 1995, 2000², 2012 and 2013.

1.21 The Council selected Barratts in November 2013. The development agreement was exchanged in March 2014, the cinema prelet to Cineworld in May 2015 and planning permission granted for the HSQ scheme in November 2015. The agreed scheme is considered an essential part of repositioned Hounslow to ensure its future vitality and viability.

1.22 The required High St Quarter scheme site is largely owned by the Council but also encompasses the ownerships of Legal & General, Royal Mail Group and those concerned with 174-180 High Street. These land interests are the subject of the proposed Order.

1.23 It is clear, in my view, that Hounslow remains an important Outer London town centre but one that needs to adapt in order to survive and prosper. It has long had a large vacant site in the heart of its town centre and has long sought to secure the development scheme.

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2 HOUNSLOW TOWN CENTRE

STATUS 2.1 Hounslow is one of the 12 designated London Metropolitan centres (Appendix 3 London Plan 2015 2.15 Annex2). The town centre has a commercial floorspace of 176,000 sq m including 67,000 sq m of offices. The average office provision for ‘metropolitan’ centres, excluding Croydon, is some 101,000 sq m. The leisure provision of 25,699 sq m is below the average 28,600 sq m provision (Appendix 4 GLA ‘London Town Centre Health Check Analysis’ 2013). The GLA reports refer to ‘leisure’ as being catering (use class Retail A3, A4 & A5) together with cinemas, theatres, bingo venues and concert halls (use class D2). The property market usually refers to ‘Retail’ as being all use classes A1 - A5 and to ‘Leisure’ as D2 use class.

2.2 The ‘metropolitan’ status is usually considered appropriate for town centres with over 100,000 sq m of retail floorspace (Appendix 5 GLA ‘London Town Centre Health Check Analysis Report’ February 2009). Hounslow has a retail floorspace of some 85,000 sq m (GLA estimate derived from Goad); the smallest of 12 of London’s metropolitan centres. It is ranked by PMA PROMIS as 108th of their 200 UK PROMIS centres (non-food multiples score) and classified as a ‘Major Town’ (Appendix 6 PMA ‘Hounslow PROMIS Retail Report’ January 2016). The 2006 Venue Ranking for Hounslow was 165th which fell to 180th by 2013. Ealing similarly fell from 100th to 132nd but Hammersmith improved from 149th to 128th and the area saw the new Westfield London entrant at 22nd. The GLA Health Check reports (2009 & 2013) confirm the Hounslow Metropolitan Centre ranking on a number of measures is well below the other Metropolitan Centres.

2.3 The leisure offer in 2009 was 18,542 sq m being 15.87% of the floorspace compared to a London average of 24% and to centres like Angel Islington, Fulham and Camden with over 35% (Appendix 5 GLA ‘London Town Centre Health Check Analysis Report’ February 2009). By 2013, and in common with most London centres, the Hounslow leisure offer had substantially increased (by 39%) but it now still only represents 21% of floorspace as against the London average of 26% (Appendix 4 GLA ‘London Town Centre Health Check Analysis’ 2013). The 2,890 sq m restaurant provision (use class A3) recorded was the lowest, alongside Haringey, of all the Metropolitan centres. The average A3 provision in London’s metropolitan centres was 4,977 sq m. It’s also important to note that the quality as well as the quantum is important. There are only 3 ‘branded’ offers (A3) in the town centre which is an extraordinarily poor provision for a major town centre (see Appendix 17). It is therefore very important, in my view, for the town centre’s quality restaurant provision to be substantially increased in order to offer the wider facilities now sought by their users.

2.4 In 1960, three cinemas operated in the town centre; the Regal/ABC (1937-1977 at 34/62 Staines Rd: 2,100 seats), The Dominion (1931-1961 at 714/722 London Rd: 2,000 seats) and the Alcazar or Grenada (1913-1960 at 31 Staines Rd: 1,100 seats). The Alcazar, located next to the ABC, was Hounslow’s first purpose built cinema. Both were demolished to make way for a supermarket. Hounslow is the only Metropolitan centre without a multiplex cinema offer with the exception of Ealing. The Ealing metropolitan centre is actually a combination of both West Ealing and Ealing Broadway town centres but the Filmworks scheme in Ealing Broadway will provide an 8 screen multiplex. The 190,000 sq m mixed use development is being undertaken by a partnership between LB Ealing and Land Securities. The site was secured by the Minister’s confirmation of the CPO in October 2015.

2.5 The out of town leisure and retail provision in the centre’s catchment which competes against the town centre is now 42,180 sq m; equivalent to about half of the town centre’s retail floorspace. Hounslow has also faced the new competition from the Westfield London development which is just some 8 miles away at Shepherds Bush; a 30 minute Tube /car journey time. This 121,000 sq m enclosed shopping centre with 4,500 car spaces opened in October 2008. In addition, a further 57,131 sq m was permitted in 2014 to facilitate an extension anchored by a 21,390 sq m John Lewis store. The perceived impact on Hounslow has been significant given the estimate for Hounslow’s 48,430 sq m comparison turnover at £252.7 M turnover (Appendix 7 R Tym & Prts ‘Joint Retail Needs Study Update’ May 2010) compared to Westfield London’s at

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around £960 M (Appendix 8 Westfield Annual Report 2011): nearly four times the size of Hounslow’s comparison trade.

2.6 Hounslow is a relatively prosperous London Borough; broadly in line with Ealing, Hackney and Greenwich (2012/13 median household income was £35,300 v Greater London £39,100). It’s population growth over 2001-2011 was 17.6%, the 5th largest growth rate in the UK. Whilst the catchment prosperity and population has grown substantially, the town centre now serves a smaller shopping population from a larger catchment (Appendix 9 PMA ‘Hounslow PROMIS Retail Report’ October 2007 & January 2016). This largely reflects the polarisation of expenditure to the greater and better centres, out of town retail development and new competition like Westfield London. The scope for Hounslow to now compete on a pure A1 retail basis is heavily constrained.

2.7 As noted, there has been no major retail development since the 1987 opening of the Treaty Centre and no significant retail development in Hounslow since the 2006 completion of the Blenheim Centre. The 2006 completion of Feltham’s 93,000 sq m mixed use redevelopment of an old precinct incorporating 13,200 sq m of retail ensured further retail expenditure within the Borough. However, it was the 1997 completion of Feltham’s Leisure West Park on Air Park Way with a 14 screen Cineworld, bingo /bowl offer and 4 restaurant pods that really ensured Feltham’s role as the area’s premier leisure destination. Most Hounslow cinema goers use the Feltham Cineworld (74%) with Richmond’s Odeon (11.3%) as a 2nd choice (Appendix 10 GVA ‘West London Retail Needs Study’ August 2007).

2.8 The 2006 Healthcheck data included town centre car parking and it was notable that Hounslow had the largest surface car parking provision of all 200 London centres; probably in reflection of the scale of sites like Key Site 1 held for redevelopment that were in ‘temporary’ car parking use (Appendix 11 GLA ‘London Town Centre Health Check Analysis’ 2006).

2.9 The latest GLA Health Check (2013) suggests that Hounslow has seen a 2% decline in its retail floorspace since 2009; less than the Outer London average (see para 1.13 above). Only 76% of its space was now the ‘higher order’ comparison floorspace; the lowest of all London’s Metropolitan centres. The Council report a town centre retail stock of 70,120 sq m which is lower than the Goad derived data used by the GLA healthchecks and is probably a more accurate figure. Nevertheless, the town centre still offers nearly 48,000 sq m of comparison floorspace (68% of total retail) which still makes it one of London’s major town centres with a ‘higher order’ offer.

TABLE 1 | HOUNSLOW RETAIL FLOORSPACE 2014 USE UNIT NOS AREA M² AV M² PER UNIT Convenience 35 17,530 507 Comparison 122 47,900 393 Services 41 4,840 118 TOTAL 198 70,270 SOURCE: LBH ‘RETAIL DEVELOPMENT SUPPLY’ ED18 NOTE 2015

2.10 This ‘higher order’ role is confirmed by past survey data. Hounslow remains at the heart of a wide district catchment rather than a smaller local catchment judged by high proportions of ‘walk in’ trade. The in-centre surveys for the ‘West London Retail Needs Study’ found that 49% of respondents arrived by car, 44% by bus and only 6% had walked (Appendix 10 GVA ‘West London Retail Needs Study’ 2007). This might be contrasted to the comparable ratios of 12% car, 45% bus and 21% walk in for Ealing Broadway and 9% car, 21% bus and 39% walk in for Hammersmith. Past data also suggests it has a higher order shopping offer with most users coming, as one would expect, for comparison goods rather than food and using the centre less frequently (Appendix 10 GVA ‘West London Retail Needs Study’ 2007).

2.11 Retail expenditure in Hounslow today is anchored by the principal comparison stores of Debenhams department store (8,550 sq m), Next (2,415 sq m), H&M (2,415 sq m),TK Maxx (2,210 sq m) and

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Primark (1,900 sq m) together with the Asda (7,260 sq m) and Aldi (1,190 sq m) food offers. The H&M and Next stores opened in Nov-Dec 2014 in the old Woolworths building after a £10 M refurbishment of the Treaty Centre. The continued and important presence of a department store distinguishes Hounslow from other centres like Ealing and Hammersmith.

2.12 Marks & Spencer did operate an Outlet store (2,130 sq m) in Hounslow but, after 80 years in the town centre, closed it in September 2015. This was part of the company’s decision to close three traditional stores, one Simply Food store, and five Outlet stores that sell end-of-season clothing. The closures reflect the conclusion that the company had too much non-food floorspace in too many locations (see para 2.2).

2.13 The Treaty Centre remains the prime retail location forming 25% of the prime retail area. It occupies a site of approximately 2.16 hectares and is anchored by the Debenhams, Wilko and New Look (see Figure 1) and, in part, by the new H&M and Next stores.

Figure 1 TREATY CENTRE Tenant plan

2.14 Both retail studies (Appendix 10 GVA ‘Joint West London Retail Needs Study’ August 2007 / Appendix 7 R Tym ‘Joint Retail Needs Study Update’ May 2010) identified that Hounslow had a relatively good choice of mainstream fashion retailers but an under-provision of high quality fashion brands. When benchmarked against other competing West London centres (such as Richmond, Kingston and Brent Cross), there was an under-provision of high quality fashion and specialist retailers in the town centre.

2.15 In common with many centres during the recession, prime retail rents declined from £1,076 per sq m in 2005 to £807 per sq m in 2012. Prime rentals levels have largely remained unchanged since that time whilst more prosperous comparable London centres have seen some modest growth. However, the town centre remains the 13th largest in London and the principal economic hub for one of London’s largest Boroughs.

2.16 Provided a multiplex cinema is secured, retail demand for A3-A5 in a modern scheme is high. Retail demand for A1 is more limited. Without demand from large comparison stores to anchor a scheme, to draw pedestrian flow in from the High Street and to generate the shopping traffic, there will not be sufficient A1 demand to support a major shopping centre development. The last two such major space requirements that might, in combination, anchor a scheme were H&M and Next who took space in the Treaty Centre.

2.17 Hounslow is a classic example of the Outer London town centre where retail turnover and growth has been constrained by the trends noted (in para 1.13 above) of out of town development, polarisation to the larger centres and the impact of the internet. The vital need for such town centres to diversify to include a wider mix of uses, including employment, new retail formats, leisure and community facilities as well as housing has been well set out.

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“The Commission firmly believes that many of the town centres in outer London may need to reinvent and re-imagine themselves to ensure they are resilient to negative effects of polarisation brought about by a contraction in the projected demand for comparison retail floor space combined with the other changes to retail activity and consumer behaviour such as multi-channel retailing. The aim is to improve the quality of the whole place (Appendix 12 Outer London Commission ‘London Plan 2011’ 3rd Report. July 2014 para 2.2.4).

“The Commission believes it is important that town centres diversify their offer by developing alternative functions and activities to draw people back and support their retail base. It is acknowledged that retail is just one part of a town centre economy. Concentrating economic activity in the centre will increase footfall which will then support activity on the high street. The Commission feels that town centres are influenced and shaped by a range of other factors such as infrastructure, connectivity, proximity, communities, vision, branding, public realm, public safety, hours of opening, culture, office, housing and parking. Encouraging a range of social, community and economic uses as well as developing the evening economy will help to drive footfall and encourage people to use town centres more …” (Appendix 12 Outer London Commission ‘London Plan 2011’ 3rd Report. July 2014 para 2.2.28).

2.18 Policy subsequently confirmed that planning authorities should look to;

“the potential for centres to adapt and evolve to becoming thriving community hubs accommodating a diverse range of uses including leisure, culture, tourism, night time economy, employment and housing alongside traditional retailing, civic functions, community services and social infrastructure … [and] .. implementation of policy to secure the diversification and housing potential of town centres through mixed use intensification should support a strategic and co-ordinated approach to development and regeneration, rather than piecemeal incremental changes” (Appendix 13 GLA ‘Town Centres’ SPG July 2014).

COMPETITION 2.19 As noted, Hounslow’s development growth capacity has also been constrained by competition from other centres and developments within the Borough. In 1987, the 26,370 sq m two level Treaty shopping centre opened. Over the subsequent 29 years, there has been little substantial improvement to the Hounslow offer whilst Shepherds Bush, Feltham, Fulham, Acton, Wembley and Uxbridge saw 277,041 sq m of new retail floor space and 58 new cinema screens.

WESTFIELD LONDON 148,000 2008 17 SCREEN VUE FELTHAM CENTRE 27,871 2006 FELTHAM LEISURE ,650 1997 14 SCREEN CINEWORLD UXBRIDGE CHIMES 36,700 2001 9 SCREEN ODEON FULHAM BROADWAY 18,200 2002 9 SCREEN VUE ACTONROYALLEISURE 12,500 1994 9SCREENVUE WEMBLEY DESIGNER OUTLET 21,120 2013 9 SCREEN CINEWORLD

2.20 Still in the West London retail development pipeline are the deferred development schemes of the Brent Cross extension (60,776 sq m) and Ealing Filmworks (7,000 sq m plus 9 new screens) together with the new Westfield London extension (57,131 sq m), Southall Gas Works (14,200 sq m) and Quintain’s next Wembley development phase (17-30,000 sq m); at least some 159,110 sq m of new retail floorspace.

2.21 Four miles south west of Hounslow and within the Borough is Feltham. The Feltham Centre is a 92,900 sq m mixed use scheme that was completed in the summer of 2006. The scheme encompasses 850 residential units (50% affordable) with 23,225 sq m of retail and restaurant use, a Travel Lodge hotel, offices, library, health centre and nursery. The retail is anchored by a 7,430 sq m Asda and a 4,645 sq m Matalan.

THE LONDON BOROUGH OF HOUNSLOW (HOUNSLOW HIGH STREET QUARTER) CPO 2015 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 10 A PROPOSAL FOR

PROOF OF EVIDENCE – ALISTAIR PARKER, BA BPL MRICS MRTPI

2.22 The development, which was completed by Thornfield Properties and funded by Morley Fund Management (now Aviva) represented the refurbishment, redevelopment and extension of a 1960’s shopping precinct (Longford Centre) on a 3.82 ha site. Designed for comprehensive development in the 1996 UDP and outlined in a 1999 Planning Brief, the project was key to Feltham’s renewal and rejuvenation of brutalist social housing blocks. Thornfield acquired the old precinct for £10 M and agreed terms with the Council who held the other half of the site. Following planning permission in 2002, the Council published a CPO Order (2003) which was confirmed in 2004. The residential element was delivered by Barratt Homes who undertook part of the construction and purchased the residential component. This completed scheme might be compared to what was being promoted, at the same time, for the Key Site 1 site in Hounslow. In a less favourable town centre, a major mixed use scheme was developed and successfully completed over 2000-2006.

THE LONDON BOROUGH OF HOUNSLOW (HOUNSLOW HIGH STREET QUARTER) CPO 2015 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 11 A PROPOSAL FOR

PROOF OF EVIDENCE – ALISTAIR PARKER, BA BPL MRICS MRTPI

3 PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT 3.1 The subject HSQ site has long been designated in policy for major development. No satisfactory alternative site has been identified. Few, if any, have suggested the right scheme would work on a smaller site. Furthermore, few have suggested there is not the need for major development on this 2.48 ha site which has been in temporary use for the past decade.

3.2 I commended this development opportunity to Barratts in November 2012 in the anticipation the Council would seek a development partner. I was familiar with the site’s history. There were a number of reasons why the previous schemes did not come forward. Amongst the most important reasons were the inability to secure a major anchor store, insufficient retail demand to support a major shopping centre development, insufficient quantum of residential provision and inadequate integration with the High Street.

3.3 Where the market demand was clearly identifiable was for additional catering. As noted, Hounslow has a lower catering offer than comparable centres and the ‘dine out’ market had grown substantially. In addition, the demand for a modern multiplex, or vital anchor operator, was long outstanding. A modern cinema facility within the town centre was always seen as being a desirable facility and important to generating dining footfall. As the London market evolved, the multiplex became the vital engine or anchor operator necessary to secure the wider range of dining needed for the wider town centre offer.

“The cinema sector has traditionally provided the anchor development of many leisure schemes as these facilities secure sufficient footfall and financial viability. Local authorities also commonly see good quality cinema facilities as an essential requirement for their local communities” (Appendix 14 DCLG ‘Planning for Town Centres’ December 2009).

3.4 Past leisure analysis has long acknowledged both the capacity and market demand for further cinema screens in Hounslow. The site has long been allocated for cinema provision.

“In Hounslow, the Feltham multiplex is the most popular cinema in West London, serving the west of the Borough. Existing cinema provision elsewhere in the Borough is, however, particularly limited with only a small arts cinema in Brentford. A new multiplex will open in Hounslow as part of the Blenheim Phase 2 scheme, filling a gap in provision in this location. (Appendix 10 GVA ‘Joint West London Retail Needs Study’ August 2007).

3.5 The recent provision of new cinemas in West London is set out in para 2.4 above. A 6/8 screen offer is some 2,500 sq m, an 8/10 screen is some 3,000 sq m and a 10/12 some 3,500-4,000 sq m. The three largest operators – Odeon & UCI Cinemas Holdings Ltd, Cineworld and Vue Entertainment Holdings (UK) Limited – provide approximately 70% of all screens (Appendix 15 Competition Commission ‘Acquisition by Cineworld Group of Picturehouse’ report 8 October 2013). The three largest operators have market shares of some 21-25% and operate some 750-860 screens respectively. All three operators expressed interest in taking the HSQ multiplex.

3.6 In the UK, multiplexes tend to be located in out-of-town sites with parking like Acton Royal, in urban retail parks like Feltham Leisure West or in shopping centres like Westfield London. Non-multiplex cinemas are typically located in town centres and frequently show more specialised films. However, the distinction between different types of cinemas had been eroded by more complex fragmentation, with cinema exhibitors programming the most successful films for each cinema on a week-by-week basis. A small but increasing number of cinemas are now offering a premium experience at a relatively higher price featuring enhanced levels of comfort, fewer seats and upmarket food and drink. These trends are particularly evident in London with a larger proportion of multiplexes being located in urban areas, with much lower proportion of customers accessing by car (only 31% travel by car) and with shorter travel times – about 90% of customers travel under 20 minutes in London. Consequently it is more important for London’s town centres to have their own adequate cinema offer.

THE LONDON BOROUGH OF HOUNSLOW (HOUNSLOW HIGH STREET QUARTER) CPO 2015 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 12 A PROPOSAL FOR

PROOF OF EVIDENCE – ALISTAIR PARKER, BA BPL MRICS MRTPI

3.7 Mixed use urban schemes anchored by cinemas in London include Islington’s N1 centre (13,600 sq m) with H&M /10 screen Vue (2003), Finchley (30,000 sq m) with Habitat /12 screen Vue (1998) and Fulham Broadway scheme (18,208 sq m) with Sainsburys Central /9 screen Warner Vue (2002). A number of such schemes are currently being progressed; one is the Ealing Filmworks scheme, with a multiplex anchor, 7,500 sq m of supporting retail and 160 flats, which is being progressed by Land Securities having secured site assembly.

“Underlying the Order is a scheme, which offers in prospect a new cinema for Ealing with new restaurant, café, retail and gallery activities together with new pedestrian routes through the western part of the town centre ….. The proposal has full planning permission and provides reasonable certainty that the scheme will be completed within a firm timescale, ending a long period of uncertainty for local residents and the wider population of Ealing. These factors constitute a strong case for confirmation of the Order” (Appendix 16 Inspectors Report ‘EALING -Land at New Broadway and Bond St Compulsory Purchase Order 2014’ July 2015).

3.8 The key solution to successful development on this site was to reduce the envisaged retail scale, anchor the scheme around a full leisure offer, target the A3 market, increase the residential provision, ensure closer integration with the existing High Street and design to modern public realm standards. This was the approach that the Developer adopted in their September 2013 submission to the Council.

ASSESSMENT 3.9 It was my conclusion that an increased residential provision on the Phase 2 site was fundamentally required in order to have a viable development proposal capable of addressing the policy objectives. Financially, our initial appraisals confirmed that the cinema would need to be supported by retail (A3) units and residential arranged over and that the pedestrian flow would need to be drawn into the site to support the A3 units through the careful placement of the multiplex cinema entry. The A1 retail would need to be limited and arranged as;

a) either small units close to the High Street for retailers like Fatface or Paperchase b) or as larger units close to the Asda for lifestyle/homeware products c) or a specialist small food store like Little Waitrose

3.10 The approved HSQ scheme will provide for 9,830 sq m (GEA) of retail (A1-A5), a 5,267 sq m multiplex and 527 housing units served by 513 basement car spaces. This, in conjunction with the Blenheim Centre, will represent a combined 18,253 sq m of retail, 8,084 sq m of leisure and 861 housing units anchored by a food store, multiplex and health club; a comparable quantum to the Feltham scheme (see para 2.7 above). In contrast to previous schemes, the central HSQ scheme axis and central square orientation will be parallel to the High Street with three links into the High Street and one new internal street up to the Blenheim centre and its Asda store. The central High Street link will be via Smithy Lane; with the historic street widened to satisfactorily serve the new role. The retail provision will comprise 12 restaurants and 7 shop units. The multiplex entry has been carefully positioned to anchor the restaurants arranged around the central square.

THE LONDON BOROUGH OF HOUNSLOW (HOUNSLOW HIGH STREET QUARTER) CPO 2015 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 13 A PROPOSAL FOR

PROOF OF EVIDENCE – ALISTAIR PARKER, BA BPL MRICS MRTPI

Figure 2 HSQ SCHEME Design format March 2015 4 LEASING 4.1 Barratts aims to develop a unique leisure led mixed use proposal by creating a new high quality public space in the centre of the site which is overlooked and occupied by active uses such as cafes, restaurants, residential apartments and the cinema foyer. There will be some 12 café/restaurant units to lease. After negotiations in late 2013 with all three major operators, the Developer decided to select Cineworld (Cine-UK Ltd) as the operator for the critical multiplex cinema anchor. The agreed 5,267 sq m / 10 screen multiplex will be the centrepiece of the new piazza, clad in gold effect and punctured metal panels. The preleasing agreement was exchanged in May 2015 and this enabled the leasing team to progress the other required prelets.

4.2 C&W have assessed the current A3 market demand and considered the demand likely to be generated by the HSQ scheme by its extension of the town centre leisure offer. The town centre is currently under represented in the restaurant brand market with Nando’s, KFC and McDonald’s being the only national A3 restaurants in the immediate vicinity. A composite schedule suggested potential demand from over 25 formats with an average unit requirement of 340 sq m. We have undertaken initial market testing and have identified in excess of 16,250 sq m of potential occupier requirements which we believe will be relevant for the High Street Quarter (Appendix 17 Food & Beverage Gap Analysis).

4.3 I remain confident that potential requirements exceed the proposed supply to the margin necessary to be firstly confident of completion of a successful tenant mix and, secondly, that the forecast pricing will be secured at the levels necessary to ensure successful delivery. To date, terms have been agreed and legal documentation is progressing with the following companies;

TGI FRIDAY 464 M² SMASHBURGER 264 M² BELLA ITALIA 331 M² LAS IGUANAS 335 M² 1,394 M²

THE LONDON BOROUGH OF HOUNSLOW (HOUNSLOW HIGH STREET QUARTER) CPO 2015 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 14 A PROPOSAL FOR

PROOF OF EVIDENCE – ALISTAIR PARKER, BA BPL MRICS MRTPI

4.4 Negotiations are also progressing with Five Guys and Pizza Express representing a further 543 sq m NLA. These collectively represent to date 30% of the 6,407 sq m NLA retail floorspace. Understandably, unit occupiers are frequently reluctant to commit so far ahead of the scheme’s planned opening date so this progress is very satisfactory. The current tenant mix planning for the HSQ scheme is set out below (Figure 3) and clearly shows the intent to focus on family led casual dining offers to address specific market demand.

4.5 In Figure 3 HSQ – current tenant mix plan for A3 December 2015

terms of A1 retail demand, we have identified a number of retailers who have presence in town centres similar to Hounslow. Having tested a diverse selection of these likely requirements, I’m confident that there is some 3-5,000 of deliverable A1 retail demand for the High Street Quarter. In my opinion, the A1 occupiers should be approached after the multiplex and the key A3 brands were secured in order to fully demonstrate the household/lifestyle opportunity of trading between the leisure piazza and the Asda foodstore. Consequently we recommended marketing the larger Units 10 and 11 some 24 months ahead of intended practical completion. The optimal time, in my view, to offer the smaller A1 retail units at the High Street end of the scheme to market will be about 12 months prior to practical completion. The current tenant mix plan for the A1 retail is illustrated below.

THE LONDON BOROUGH OF HOUNSLOW (HOUNSLOW HIGH STREET QUARTER) CPO 2015 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 15 A PROPOSAL FOR

PROOF OF EVIDENCE – ALISTAIR PARKER, BA BPL MRICS MRTPI

Figure 4 HSQ - tenant Mix A1 January 2016

4.6 There seems little need to set out the scale of the demand for further residential provision in West London; particularly in a metropolitan centre that lies between two Tube stations on the Piccadilly Line. As Barratt notes;

“the market for new homes remains strong across Britain, with demand continuing to exceed supply” (Appendix 18 Barratt Annual Report and Accounts June 2015).

4.7 London’s population is expected to grow by about a million between 2011 and 2021, passing its previous peak of 8.6 million sometime in the next few years and reaching around 10 million by 2031.Estimates of the need for additional housebuilding in London fall within a range of 50,000-80,000 units per year. Housing completions are well below this level; 2012-13 saw 21,900 net conventional completions and 23,640 in 2013-14. The Mayor’s Housing Strategy contains an ambition to build almost 49,000 new homes per year over the next two decades (Appendix 19 GLA ‘Housing in London 2015’ September 2015).

4.8 Hounslow’s population growth has been the 5th fastest in the UK. The last 2011 Census found that the borough population has been growing faster than originally projected, leading to increased levels of housing need and changes to the housing types required. The Local Plan sets out strategic policies to deliver a minimum of 12,300 new homes using evidence from the 2013 London-wide Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (Appendix 20 LB Hounslow ‘Local Plan’ September 2015).

4.9 The supply shortage has driven increased market pricing. Since the 2008 peak, house prices in Hounslow have risen by 29.5%, while house prices are also expected to grow by at least 12% over the next 5 years. At present, Hounslow remains relatively affordable; prices are currently 25.5% lower than the London average and the Borough is currently placed as the 12th most affordable borough in London as a whole.

4.10 As perhaps an indication of both demand and affordability, Galliard’s Trinity Square scheme in Hounslow apparently holds the record for the fastest residential flats sales. Their 215 starter units of some 28 – 45 sq m reportedly sold out in three hours on 5 November last year at sales rates of £650-700 psf.

4.11 The HSQ scheme will provide 527 units (41% affordable) orientated towards a higher mix of 1 and 2 bed provision with only 8% in 3 bed units.

THE LONDON BOROUGH OF HOUNSLOW (HOUNSLOW HIGH STREET QUARTER) CPO 2015 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 16 A PROPOSAL FOR

PROOF OF EVIDENCE – ALISTAIR PARKER, BA BPL MRICS MRTPI

HIGH STREET QUARTER SCHEME 4.12 The development, in my opinion, wholly meets the policy requirements and Council’s development objectives. It is a mixed use urban leisure led scheme that comprehensively provides;

a) a modern multiplex cinema and supporting retail reinforcing the commercial leisure offer b) integration with the High Street and the new street to the Blenheim Centre, c) substantial residential provision d) and a new public square for the town centre,

4.13 If it were not possible to assembly the site and undertake the HSQ scheme, then a substantial part of the diversification strategy to protect the centre’s vitality and viability would be not be achieved. As a policy objective pursued for two decades, the subject site was to be a key part of the renewal of Hounslow to secure its continued role.

4.14 Without the implementation of the HSQ scheme and the restoration of the critical cinema offer, Hounslow is likely to continue its steady decline towards a more localised convenience shopping role with the majority of higher order shopping migrating to nearby centres like Westfield London and Kingston.

4.15 It has long been envisaged that HSQ could, in a similar manner to centres like Camden or Islington, offer a vibrant mix of retail, culture and leisure in an authentic urban environment supported by a significant office working population and a prosperous residential community. Without the HSQ scheme, the town centre will remain reliant its limited retail and restaurant offer.

4.16 I am confident that the HSQ scheme, carefully crafted to meet specific market demand, will successfully address occupier need and will be successfully leased at the requisite pricing to ensure viability. The leasing progress to date, achieved some 55 months before the envisaged opening date, is concrete evidence that the scheme can be successfully delivered.

THE LONDON BOROUGH OF HOUNSLOW (HOUNSLOW HIGH STREET QUARTER) CPO 2015 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 17 A PROPOSAL FOR

PROOF OF EVIDENCE – ALISTAIR PARKER, BA BPL MRICS MRTPI

5 REQUIREDLANDANDOBJECTIONS 5.1 The HSQ site definition has largely remained the same for the past decade. As noted, the Council own the majority of the site and have been purchasing the residential properties along Holloway Road with three remaining interests in legals and three interests remaining outstanding.

5.2 David Conboy’s evidence details progress made on site assembly and the agreements reached with Legal & General and the Royal Mail Group. Three properties on the High Street have been included in the Order.

HIGH STREET 5.3 Number 174 High Street is the eastern boundary to Smithy Lane and comprises of a 233 sq m shop with two floors of offices over. The other side of Smithy Lane is framed by 178 High Street and 180 High Street. The properties are required in order to widen Smithy Lane to the extent required to enable the primary entrance into the new public square.

5.4 The new ‘street’ entrance off the High Street needs to be of sufficient scale to enable the envisaged shopping traffic, to provide required sight lines into the scheme and to properly frame the main entrance into the new square. The scheme design provides for a minimum 9m ‘street’ width at its narrowest with shop units of some 7-10m depth either side; a total of approximately 26-27m. The required width for urban streets depends on function, use and design. A common minimum standard is 9.5 m being a 5.5 m (18 ft) carriage way plus two 2m pavements. The famed Essex Design Guide (1997 – 2005 edit) suggests a minimum minor access road at 7.8m with one 2m pavement and one 1m pavement.

5.5 By way of further context, I note that the standard shopping design in the UK, evolved over decades of experience, usually requires clear ‘mall widths’ of 11-12m with single sided upper galleries at a minimum of 4-4.5m. It seems quite clear that the scheme needs some 20-25m to provide an adequate entry off the High Street.

5.6 Smithy Lane is presently only some 5.56m in width between 174 and 178 High Street. An adequate entry into the scheme affording proper sight lines needs to be wider. In addition, the entry vitally needs to be framed with active retail frontage. The flank wall of 174 High Street is some 25.63m long and two brick walls of that length would militate against the scheme success. Consequently, the HSQ frames a widened entry with shallow shop units on both sides necessitating the incorporation of the specified High Street interests.

THE LONDON BOROUGH OF HOUNSLOW (HOUNSLOW HIGH STREET QUARTER) CPO 2015 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 18 A PROPOSAL FOR

PROOF OF EVIDENCE – ALISTAIR PARKER, BA BPL MRICS MRTPI

6 CONCLUSIONS 6.1 A comprehensive urban entertainment and residential scheme is a critical part of the strategy to diversify the town centre offer and to maintain Hounslow’s vitality and viability. The Local Planning Authority has long sought the comprehensive redevelopment of this site. The UDP 2003 defined this as a key site seeking a major mixed use regeneration. Since that time, the Council has continually sought to secure a regeneration scheme on the site to maintain the town centre’s status, role and function.

6.2 Earlier leisure and retail development schemes failed without a key comparison store anchor, with inappropriate office provision and without sufficient residential. The HSQ scheme, in my opinion, is the feasible and viable scheme and the financial commitment of Barratts, the Cineworld commitment and key brand leasing to date is ample evidence of that.

6.3 After many years of unsuccessful development partners and proposed schemes, the Council selected Barratts as its development partner in November 2013, exchanged the agreement in March 2014 and granted planning permission in September 2015. As noted, the anchor multiplex has been preleased, the unit leasing is progressing well and demand for the residential provision is very strong.

6.4 It is clear from the long history of the HSQ site that there was no reasonable prospect of the required comprehensive scheme delivered by any other route that the one now being taken by the Council; that the required scheme was not achievable by other means than compulsory purchase.

6.5 I have reaffirmed my confidence in the scheme’s viability, the strong occupier demand, the available financial resource and developer’s experience and expertise. It is now over 38 years since the last cinema in Hounslow closed and over 10 years since this major part of the town centre has been in temporary use. The last substantial impediment to the HSQ scheme delivery is the confirmation of the Order to ensure necessary certainty on site assembly. I would respectfully ask the Inspector to recommend confirmation of that Order.

Alistair Parker Partner, Cushman & Wakefield

THE LONDON BOROUGH OF HOUNSLOW (HOUNSLOW HIGH STREET QUARTER) CPO 2015 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 19