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Zhejiang Dingli 27 Jun 2019 CMB International Securities | Equity Research | Company Update Zhejiang Dingli - A (603338 CH) BUY (Initiation) A structural growth story in a cyclical sector Target Price RMB75.00 Up/Downside +32% We believe aerial working platform (AWP) is entering a structural growth Current Price RMB56.95 trajectory as the rising labor cost in China will make AWPs incrementally cost competitive compared with the traditional scaffolding. With AWP fleet size of only 13% of that in the US, we see explosive growth potential in China over the coming China Capital Goods years. We believe Zhejiang Dingli, a Chinese based pure AWP manufacturer, is set to become the major beneficiary given its global presence, first mover Wayne Fung, CFA (852) 3900 0826 advantage, cost competitiveness, brand recognition and strong management [email protected] execution. We forecast Dingli to deliver an impressive earnings CAGR of 34% in 2019E-21E, with further upside coming from potential capacity additions. Initiate with BUY and TP of RMB75. Stock Data Mkt Cap (HK$ mn) 19,749 Explosive growth potential in China driven by structural factors. Avg 3 mths t/o (HK$ mn) 110 According to International Powered Access Federation (IPAF), the fleet size 52w High/Low (HK$) 61.04/30.73 of AWP in China grew 29% YoY to 78k units in 2018, representing only ~5% Total Issued Shares (mn) 346.8 Source: Bloomberg of the world’s total. Rising labor cost, time cost and more awareness of safety issue make AWP more attractive to scaffolding in China. Our case analysis Shareholding Structure suggests that the cost savings by applying AWP can reach 19% at present. XU Shugen 47.5% Assuming another 40% increase in labor cost in five years (similar to the Deqing Zhongding Equity 13.4% Investment Management increment in 2013-2018), the cost savings will widen to 26%, making AWP CCASS (Hong Kong) 3.6% even more attractive to users. XU Zhilong 3.1% Free float 32.7% Established global network; Well-designed capacity expansion plan. Source: Shanghai Stock Exchange Unlike other types of construction machinery makers in China, Dingli has established its footprints in the developed markets such as Europe and the Share Performance Absolute Relative US. This put Dingli at a favorable position to capture the growth opportunity in 1-mth +25.6% +18.8% China. Dingli raised its designed capacity from 5k units in 2014 to 26k units in 3-mth -1.6% -3.1% 2018. A new production line for 3.2k units of boom lift will commence operation 6-mth +37.5% +9.2% Source: Bloomberg in mid-2020. It is worth noting that the ASP of boom lift is 6x of that of the scissor lift (the major product of Dingli at present). 12-mth Price Performance (RMB) 603338 CH Valuation premium justified on secular growth outlook. Our TP of RMB75 66.0 SHSZ300 (rebased) is based on 30x 2020E P/E. Our target multiple is based on the peak valuation 56.0 level since 2016. Our target valuation is well-supported by our estimated 46.0 earnings CAGR of 34% in 2019E-21E. Unlike other types of construction 36.0 machinery names that are more cyclical in nature, Dingli is offering a structural 26.0 growth potential and we believe it is justified for a growth stock valuation. 16.0 6.0 6/2018 9/2018 12/2018 3/2019 6/2019 Earnings Summary Source: Bloomberg (YE 31 Dec) FY17A FY18A FY19E FY20E FY21E Revenue (RMB mn) 1,139 1,708 2,278 3,148 4,171 Auditor: BDO YoY growth (%) 64.0 49.9 33.4 38.2 32.5 Net income (RMB mn) 283 480 633 869 1,147 Please cast your valuable vote EPS (RMB) 0.85 1.38 1.83 2.51 3.31 for CMBI research team in the YoY growth (%) 10.8 62.7 31.8 37.3 32.0 2019 Asiamoney Brokers Poll: EV/EBITDA (x) 52.0 37.4 25.6 18.2 14.1 https://euromoney.com/brokers P/E (x) 66.9 41.1 31.2 22.7 17.2 P/B (x) 9.0 7.6 6.3 5.1 4.0 Yield (%) 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 ROE (%) 17.2 20.0 22.0 24.6 26.1 Net gearing (%) Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash Source: Company data, CMBIS estimates PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE 1 ACCESS KEY TO OUR REPORTS ON BLOOMBERG: CMBR 27 Jun 2019 Contents Focus Charts ................................................................................................................ 3 AWP has been widely applied in the US and Europe .................................. 4 What is AWP? ................................................................................................................. 4 Major markets in the world ........................................................................................... 4 China AWP is at the early stage of development .......................................... 7 Low penatration rate in China ...................................................................................... 7 AWP is getting more efficient and cost effective due to rising labor cost in China ................................................................................................................................ 7 Quantifying the cost savings ....................................................................................... 9 Competitive landscape .......................................................................................... 10 Major players ................................................................................................................ 10 Investment positives .............................................................................................. 12 Dingli has already established its global presence ............................................... 12 Strong growth driven by strategic transformation years ago .............................. 12 Well-designed capacity expansion plan and efficiency enhancement .............. 12 Further product mix enhancement with more sales of boom lift ........................ 14 Clear position and pricing strategy .......................................................................... 15 Earnings projection ................................................................................................ 15 We forecast revenue CAGR of 35% in 2019E-21E .................................................. 15 Gross margin to sustain in the foreseeable future ................................................ 15 We forecast 34% net profit CAGR in 2019E-21E ..................................................... 16 Solid balance sheet for upcoming capex ................................................................ 16 Financial Summary ................................................................................................. 17 Valuation premium well-supported by strong earnings outlook......... 18 Historical valuation range .......................................................................................... 18 Initate with BUY with TP of RMB75 ........................................................................... 18 Major risk factors ..................................................................................................... 20 More new players entering the AWP industry in China ........................................ 20 Weaker-than-expected construction activities in China ....................................... 20 Uncertainties on the US economy and trade dispute ............................................ 20 Increase in component cost ....................................................................................... 20 Exchange rate risk ....................................................................................................... 20 Appendix: Dingli’s key products ....................................................................... 21 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE 2 27 Jun 2019 Focus Charts Figure 1: AWP fleet size comparison Figure 2: AWP rental revenue comparison Units US$ bn 700,000 14 600,000 12 500,000 10 400,000 8 300,000 6 200,000 4 100,000 2 0 2017 2018 2019E 0 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E Europe (10 major countries) USA China Europe (10 major countries) USA China Source: IPAF, CMBIS estimates Source: IPAF, CMBIS estimates Figure 3: Major AWP players revenue comparison Figure 4: Major AWP players net profit comparison US$ mn US$ mn 9,000 60% 500 80% 8,000 450 70% 50% 7,000 400 60% 40% 350 50% 6,000 300 40% 5,000 30% 250 30% 4,000 20% 200 20% 3,000 10% 150 10% 2,000 100 0% 0% 1,000 50 -10% 0 -10% 0 -20% Terex Oshkosh Linamar Haulotte Aichi Zhejiang Terex Oshkosh Linamar Haulotte Aichi Zhejiang Corporation Corporation Corporation Group Corporation Dingli Corporation Corporation Corporation Group Corporation Dingli 2017 2018 Growth (2018) - RHS 2017 2018 Growth (YoY) - RHS Source: Company data, CMBIS Source: Company data, CMBIS Figure 5: Dingli’s revenue and growth Figure 6: Dingli’s net profit and growth (RMB mn) Other RMB mn 1,400 80% 4,500 64% 70% business 70% 4,000 62% 70% 60% Forklifts 1,200 50% 3,500 60% 45% 50% 1,000 50% 3,000 38% 50% Vertical lifts 800 39% 2,500 33% 32% 40% 37% 37% 28% 32% 32% 40% 2,000 30% 600 Scissor lifts 30% 1,500 18% 400 20% 20% 1,000 10% 10% 10% Boom lifts 200 500 10% 0 0% 0 0% Growth 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E (YoY) - RHS Net profit Growth (YoY) - RHS Source: Company data, CMBIS estimates Source: Company data, CMBIS estimates PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE 3 27 Jun 2019 AWP has been widely applied in the US and Europe What is AWP? Aerial work platform (AWP), or Mobile elevating work platform (MEWP), is a mechanical device used to provide temporary access for people or equipment to inaccessible
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