[target 50–60m, actual 76m incl 73-87 on materialss] Integrative design for radical energy and materials efficiency at lower cost IIASA internal seminar Laxenburg, 02 September 2019 M OUN KY T C A I O N R I N E STIT U T Amory B. Lovins Cofounder and Chairman Emeritus, RMI (www.rmi.org) Independent contractor, Lovins Associates LLC
[email protected] Copyright © 2019 Lovins Associates LLC. All rights reserved. Thank you for this opportunity to “re-mind” you about how to design whole systems for radical efficiency in using energy, water, metals, and other resources. The practice I’ll summarize applies orthodox engineering principles but asks different design questions in a different order and therefore gets very different answers. I recently presented this material as a six-day intensive course, and my team is developing various other tools to help turn this approach from rare to common. * Clean watts are the easy part I won’t be talking today (rather tomorrow) about energy supply. Modern renewables now provide two-thirds of the world’s net additions of electric capacity, thanks to their powerful business case. Our bigger challenge is capturing modern negawatts. * Reduced energy intensity has had 30× the impact of renewable growth (United States, 1965–2018p, not weather-normalized, EIA data) 250 Primary energy use if at 1975 efficiency and structure 200 1975–2018p savings Energy saved by reduced intensity from intensity reduction: 150 2,589 qBTU 100 Primary energy use, 1965–1975 Actual primary energy use 50 Growth in renewable energy use 1975–2018p growth in total renewable output: U.S.