Journal & Proceedings of the Royal Society of New South Wales, vol. 153, part 1, 2020, pp. 119–130. ISSN 0035-9173/20/010119-12

Obituary Lord Robert (Bob) May OM, AC, FRS, FAA, FTSE, DistFRSN (Baron May of Oxford) 8 January 1936–28 April 2020

Len Fisher School of Physics, University of Bristol Email: [email protected]

f I had to choose one word to describe lege. The privileged members of a certain IBob May1, whom I knew as a scientist, Sydney club learned this to their cost when activist and friend from the late 1960s, that the Sydney University chess team, with word would be “integrity.” Bob was a seeker Bob at the head, turned up for a tourna- after truth, and his integrity was absolute. ment scheduled to start at 8pm, only to be He was a lover of games, and saw science as a informed by a waiter that the members were game of trying to understand the world and still eating dinner and would be down when how it worked. His success at this game took they were ready. Bob’s very direct response him to the heights as President of the Royal was to break open the cupboards containing Society of London and the recipient of many the chess sets, set up the boards, and start scientific honours. He also had a powerful the chess clocks at 8pm in the opponents’ sense of social responsibility. This was one absence. of the factors in his move from pure phys- When he received the Order of Merit ics to study the problems of ecology, and in 2002 (a personal gift from the Queen, which eventually led to his accepting a posi- restricted to 24 members) Bob was thrilled, tion as Chief Scientific Adviser to the U.K. but not overawed. He reputedly found him- Government and becoming an outspoken self trying to explain Fermat’s Last Theorem spokesman for conservation and the dangers to her. “Don’t worry, ma’am” he said, seeing of climate change. the expression on her face, “there won’t be Bob was famous for his directness, which a quiz.” most of us who knew him or worked with Bob was an excellent teacher, and would him experienced at some stage in our lives. It list the points that he intended to make at was coupled with a strong sense of fairness, the beginning of a lecture, and tick them and a complete disregard for rank or privi- off as the lecture proceeded. He carried this practice through to his many public 1 Much of the information in this obituary has lectures in later life, which covered topics come from Bob’s colleagues and friends. The quoted ranging from chaos theory and the spread of passages, where not otherwise acknowledged, come primarily from an ABC Radio National interview BSE and AIDS to global warming and the with Robyn Williams in 2011 (https://www.abc.net. wiles of politicians. In his honour I adopt au/radionational/programs/scienceshow/australian- scientific-superstars-no.1---robert-may/3745700)

119 Journal & Proceedings of the Royal Society of New South Wales Fisher — Obituary: Lord Robert (Bob) May OM, AC, FRS, FAA, FTSE, DistFRSN the same practice in this obituary, which I once teased him about his choice of sub- puts some emphasis on Australian aspects. jects, and suggested tongue-in-cheek that he It will cover: had switched to physics because it was easier • Early days as a physicist at Sydney Uni- than chemistry. I received the indignant versity (to 1972) reply that he had come top in chemistry as well, but found physics more rewarding. • Transition to Professor of Zoology at After the then-obligatory time “over- Princeton (1973–1988) seas” as a lecturer in applied mathematics • Moving to England as Royal Society Pro- at Harvard University (where he met his fessor (joint between Oxford University wife Judith2, then an undergraduate student and Imperial College London) and Fellow at Brandeis), Bob returned to the physics of Merton College, Oxford (1988–2020). department at Sydney University in 1962. Early days at Sydney University (to 1972) Those were heady days. Professor Harry Messel, brought in to run the School in Bob’s parents separated when he was seven, 1952, had raised it from a state that Bob later and he and his younger brother grew up described as “rather moribund” to a world- in the home of their grandparents. He class status in many areas, particularly in attended Sydney Boys’ High School, where astronomy, cosmic ray research and plasma his experience of the inspiring chemistry physics, with Bob publishing prolifically in teacher Lenny Basser stimulated him to the latter. begin the study of chemical engineering at Messel also established the International Sydney University in 1953 (shades of Nobel Science School to encourage bright high Laureate Paul Dirac, who began his career school students to follow careers in science. in theoretical physics studying electrical Bob was especially pleased when the Federal engineering at Bristol University). He was Government later established (through the also a member of the all-conquering debat- School) a prize for Leadership in Science, ing team, and later claimed that this gave named at Bob’s suggestion after Len Basser. him a useful training for his dealings with Basser taught eight eventual Fellows of the politicians. Royal Society of London in the course of All engineering students took the same his career, including a President (Bob) and first-year courses, which involved hon- a Nobel Prize winner (John Cornforth). He ours chemistry, honours mathematics, but also taught a number of other future sci- only pass-level physics. Bob sat in on the ence professors, including the pharmacolo- honours physics lectures as well, because gist Garry Graham, and Hans Freeman, who some of his friends were doing it. When it did a post-doc with Linus Pauling before came to examination time, where he was returning to set up Australia’s first X-ray only obliged to take the pass physics exam, diffraction laboratory at Sydney University. he decided to try the honours exam as “an Bob summarized the Physics School’s interesting game,” even though he hadn’t activities in an article “Profile of a Phys- studied for it. He came top. Eventually ics Department” for The Australian Physi- he switched to physics and mathematics, gaining his B.Sc. (Hons) and the University medal in 1956 and a PhD in 1959. 2 Judith née Feiner.

120 Journal & Proceedings of the Royal Society of New South Wales Fisher — Obituary: Lord Robert (Bob) May OM, AC, FRS, FAA, FTSE, DistFRSN cist (“single issues fifty cents per copy”) in uated within the School of Physics, would June 1970. By this time he was knocking on be “of lesser interest to the readers of this the door of a chair, and had in fact been journal” but added as a footnote “Actually, offered one in theoretical physics at the rival the procedure by which the computing University of New South Wales. It was an department selects its pulchritudinous pro- offer that he probably used as a lever to grammers would be of fairly wide interest. secure one of Sydney University’s first two Unfortunately, the department’s published personal chairs at the age of 34 — an early research on this topic is as scant as the mini- example of his unobtrusive but very effec- skirts themselves.” tive political ability, where he characteristi- He could hardly have got away with that cally used directness as a cover for subtlety. these days. The 1970 article was a classically sardonic In general, though, the article gave a fair May production, and hardly calculated to (if colourful) assessment of the environment endear him to some of his colleagues. Speak- in which Bob found himself in 1970. His ing of the possible (but artefactual) quark wife Judith and daughter Naomi were very tracks observed by the cloud chamber group, central to that environment, which may he wrote “The group is currently famous (or have changed drastically when the parents notorious) for its identification … ”. Com- smelled smoke coming from the kitchen menting on the video lectures to large first- early one morning. Bob told me proudly at year classes, he said “The kindest thing to dinner that night that the smoke had come say about these telly lectures is that they are from four peaches that little Naomi (then improving; certainly an inordinate amount 3) had put on the stove top and turned the of work is being put into them.” elements up to various levels to compare But he gave credit where credit was due, the effects. He was convinced that she pointing out for example that “more than would become a scientist, but she eventu- half the 50-odd pulsars so far catalogued ally became a prominent Californian artist. have been found by the Mills Cross group.” Bob finished his article by describing “the He could also be quite funny about his own other minor projects which keep the theo- theoretical work. “Some of this work makes reticians quiet.” These included “topics in contact with experiments,” he said “and the behavioural sciences (e.g. The Theory of some of it is so abstract as to be quite inde- Voting); and playing bridge at lunch time.” fensible.” He also liked word play. Speaking I met Bob through bridge, and we even of one of his own major theoretical contri- won the Australian Universities champi- butions: “Following on from S.T. Butler’s onship together. Bob was very keen on his seminal work in the field of direct nuclear bridge, although inclined to become rather reactions (or, more colourfully, stripping reac- emotionally involved. Former post-graduate tions [my emphasis]), the group has devel- student Robert Hewitt told me of the time oped a new approach … ”. when Bob threw his cards at a window in Sometimes the gags went a bit far by frustration. Unfortunately, the window was today’s PC standards. He thought that the open, and the cards had to be retrieved from activities of the Computer Department, sit- the car park below.

121 Journal & Proceedings of the Royal Society of New South Wales Fisher — Obituary: Lord Robert (Bob) May OM, AC, FRS, FAA, FTSE, DistFRSN

The two Bobs were also involved in bring- company when Stuart was recovering from ing more students to the department. In a heart attack, and Bob had decided that those days, different departments in the bridge would be an appropriate therapy. I Science faculty could attract PhD students ventured the comment that they must be with scholarships by awarding them first really pleased to have Bob in the Depart- class honours as undergraduates. It became ment, and received the rather grumpy reply clear that physics was losing out since it had from Stuart that it would be OK if he could stricter standards. The two Bobs set about ever be persuaded to talk about physics. quantifying the standards depending on a Because Bob was already starting to think score of credits, distinctions and high dis- about the problems that would occupy tinctions earned over the first three years of the rest of his life. One of these was game undergraduate study. That made it difficult theory — working out the best strategies for any department to suddenly promote for interacting with other people on the students to 1st class honours. assumption that they were using their best Bob’s great pride was the time that we strategies. I occasionally pulled his leg that beat the U.S. National team; an event that his outrageous bid against the U.S. team was he never failed to remind me of, no matter his first and only experimental investigation what the subject of our conversation or of this topic. email exchange might be. In fact he was just about to publish a Non-bridge players can skip the next two paper3 on one aspect of game theory. It was paragraphs, although they bear on what his first outside the realm of pure physics, follows. Briefly, we were non-vulnerable and concerned with how to get the fairest against vulnerable opponents, and playing result possible in an election. a weak no trump system. I had passed, the That topic was no accident. Bob was very opponent on Bob’s right had passed, and concerned with fairness, and with applying Bob found himself with a hand containing rigorous mathematical thinking to social just one jack. He knew that his left-hand questions. Harry Messel had been pushing opponent must be loaded. him to think about even broader issues, and So he opened one no trump! A brilliant how to apply physics to biology in general. psychic gamble, knowing that I wouldn’t The linking factor was the burgeoning move- dump him in the soup because I had already ment for Social Responsibility in Science. passed, and that he could hardly lose more It was driven by sociologists like Sol Encel than the Americans would otherwise gain. and Stephen Hill FRSN, along with science The Americans were so flummoxed that they teacher Telford Conlon and physics profes- ended up in game when they had a lay-down sor Peter Mason from Macquarie University. grand slam, which our partners at the other Especially, from the point of view of this table duly found, and which turned out to obituary, it was driven by Sydney University be the difference between the two teams. zoology professor Charles Birch, later to be Bob was not the only bridge enthusiast in a founding member of the Club of Rome. the Department. Professor Stuart Butler was another, and I was rather awestruck to find myself in his and Charles Watson-Munro’s 3 “Some mathematical remarks on the paradox of voting.” Behavioral Science 16, 143–151 (1971)

122 Journal & Proceedings of the Royal Society of New South Wales Fisher — Obituary: Lord Robert (Bob) May OM, AC, FRS, FAA, FTSE, DistFRSN

Bob was enthusiastically involved, and Charles Birch, the co-author of the lead- this was how he found his way almost by ing textbook on the subject, was fascinated accident into the field of ecology. He said, by Bob’s discovery, and acted as midwife in in his interview with Robyn Williams, “In what followed. Briefly, Bob was due to take a discovering what I was being conscience- sabbatical break, working on plasma physics stricken and socially responsible about, I at Culham in the U.K. and astrophysics at had read a book by Ken Watt on ecology the Institute for Advanced Study in Prince- and resource management.”4 It espoused the ton. Birch wrote to his biological friends view, common at the time and supported by in both places, urging them to deflect Bob observation, that complicated ecosystems towards more ecological pursuits. would be more stable than simpler ones by The plan worked a treat, and population virtue of their very complexity. biologist Robert MacArthur, then suffer- Bob, being Bob, was sceptical, and decided ing from advanced pancreatic cancer, even to check out the question mathematically. urged Bob to take his Princeton chair after He found that the opposite was the case. he had gone. He was especially impressed Large complex systems with random links when Bob saw immediately the mathemat- between their members should, in fact, be ical solution to an important problem in less stable. niche overlap with which MacArthur had The resultant 1972 Nature paper5, which been struggling for some time.6 has had over 2000 citations, took the ecolog- But Bob was happy in Sydney, and ical community by storm, and has provided returned to do his thinking there. He did the foundation for much of its activities ever it in some odd places. One of these was the since. The theorem that Bob proved (which bridge table, where I more than once found had been proved earlier by Eugene Wigner myself landed in a surreal contract because in a physics context) became known as the Bob had manœuvred the bidding so that he May-Wigner theorem, and the disagreement could be dummy and get on with some cal- between ecological theory and observation culations on a small piece of paper on the was called the May paradox. Resolving it corner of the table. has been one of the central goals of ecologi- Another favourite thinking place was the cal science. In principle it is easy to resolve tennis court. Bob was an avid player, and since, as Bob once said “Ecosystems are with his friend Rod Cross could often be the winnowed products of evolution, they found practising on the university courts are not random.” But “what are the special on a Wednesday afternoon. Bob was by now structures that … reconcile exploiting more doing numerical calculations of population niches, having more species and being more growth and decay, and plotting the result- complicated with robustness against distur- ant graphs using a programmable calcula- bance?” The question is an important one in tor (he hated programming the university’s our increasingly disturbed world. bigger computers). The calculator was in the Third Year laboratory, and supposedly 4 Kenneth E.F. Watt Ecology and Resource Manage- ment: a Quantitative Approach. New York: McGraw- Hill (1968). 6 Robert M. May & Robert H. MacArthur “Niche overlap as a function of environmental variability” 5 “Will a large complex system be stable?” Nature Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the 238, 413–414 (1972) USA 69, 1109–1113 (1972)

123 Journal & Proceedings of the Royal Society of New South Wales Fisher — Obituary: Lord Robert (Bob) May OM, AC, FRS, FAA, FTSE, DistFRSN for the use of students, but Bob took it over, still looking, Bob continued “I’ve changed rather to the dismay of the students and my mind. I’d like to do it.” Bonner said staff member in charge. It was so slow (espe- “Great” and that was that. cially by today’s standards) that he had to The work poured out of him, in what Bob check it out after every second game to see described as the most productive period of whether the program had finished. That cal- his scientific life. He edited the standard culator should really be in a museum, since textbook Theoretical Ecology: Principles and it played a central role in the development Applications. He expanded greatly on his sem- of chaos theory. inal work on ecological networks and niches. The tennis competitions took place on And he laid the foundations for chaos theory. Saturdays in Sydney’s Eastern suburbs, The latter came about as the result of a where Bob could not access his calcula- puzzle. Bob had been working in Sydney tor. He could not bear to be mentally idle, on a key equation, derived by the Belgian though, so set up a chess board at the side of mathematician Pierre Verhulst as long ago the tennis court, with the clock to be tapped as 1838, which describes how population between games. growth must slow down as it approaches The tennis games had an interesting later the limit of the resources available, and even upshot. Rod became an expert in the physics become negative if it overshoots that limit. of tennis racquets, and a frequent consultant The equation is oh so simple, but behaves to the International Tennis Federation. He in an extraordinary way depending on the attended an ITF meeting in London in 2003, rate of growth, first breaking into “boom” and suggested that Bob be invited to give and “bust” regimes at around a population the after-dinner speech, which was a great tripling rate, and eventually breaking into success. The following year the ITF gave Bob wild (chaotic) oscillations at a critical higher free tickets for the Wimbledon finals. He rate (just above 3.596), called the “point of and Judith found themselves sitting next to accumulation,” with the symbol lambda. Michael Parkinson, and Judith, who along Bob couldn’t figure out what was going with Bob seldom if ever watched television, on. Outside his office in Sydney, he had a asked him what he did for a living! notice board. According to James Gleick in his book Chaos, there was at one stage a Transition to Professor of Zoology notice that read “What the Christ happens at Princeton (1973–1988) when lambda gets bigger than the point of It was Judith who stimulated Bob’s move accumulation?” In fact, as Bob once told to Princeton. Some Australian ecologists me, the language was rather more colourful (especially at ANU) had been urging him than that. to join their groups, but Judith argued Eventually, in Princeton, he figured it that Princeton was a chance that might out, and produced one of his most famous not come again. So, according to Bob “I papers “Simple mathematical models with pick[ed] up the phone, rang the chairman very complicated dynamics,”7 which has John Bonner, and said `Have you fixed on been cited over 7500 times. In that same year Robert [MacArthur]’s successor or are you still looking?’” When told that they were 7 Nature 261, 459–467.

124 Journal & Proceedings of the Royal Society of New South Wales Fisher — Obituary: Lord Robert (Bob) May OM, AC, FRS, FAA, FTSE, DistFRSN he also produced the wonderfully quirky lar,” swung wildly between the theoretical, “Ecology of dragons8,” in which he discussed the practical, and the bureaucratic. Much (among other things) the over-exploitation of it is covered in the many obituaries that of dragons for pharmacological purposes, appeared after his death. Here I can cover which may have led to their extinction. It only a few highlights. was a theme that was to reappear in more One undoubted highlight was his work serious vein many times in his later career. with Roy Anderson at Imperial College. He later used it cleverly to suggest that cli- Together, the two built on Bob’s earlier work mate change may well lead to a resurrection to develop the now-accepted framework for of sleeping dragons from their slumbers.9 epidemiological modelling.10 “Mathemati- During his time at Princeton, Bob also cal epidemiology” became a field of biology, became the chairman of the university “central to understanding the dynamics and research board. It was a position for which control of infectious disease.”11 It proved to he turned out to be ideally fitted. He also be of great value in understanding and con- chaired a committee to discuss the safety of trolling the AIDS epidemic in Africa, the the university’s recombinant DNA research, BSE outbreak in the UK, and the world- and made sure that the local community was wide SARS and COVID-19 epidemics. included in the discussions. During this time Bob moved frequently Bob would also return to Australia fre- between Oxford and London, although quently during this time, and lectured at Oxford was always his first choice. I once the International Science Schools that had asked him where he stayed in London, and been set up by Harry Messel in 1966, 1968, he replied that he and Judith had a flat in 1972, 1985 and 1987. On these occasions he Chelsea. I must have expressed some envy, would always contact Bob Hewitt ahead of because he went on to say laconically “Well, time and ask him to round up “the usual I have won a few prizes.” suspects” for a game of bridge. He certainly had. They included the But things were moving. In the U.K. Pro- Balzan Prize for biodiversity, the Copley fessor Sir Richard Southwood from Merton medal of the Royal Society, the Japanese College, Oxford, and others were conspiring Blue Planet Prize for “contributing signifi- to bring Bob to the U.K., with the bait of a cantly to the improvement of the global Royal Society Professorship (joint between environment,” and the Crafoord Prize for Oxford and Imperial College London) and ecological research. The latter is awarded a Fellowship of Merton College, not to men- tion the croquet lawn and real tennis court. 10 R.M. Anderson & R.M. May “The population Move to England (1989–2020) dynamics of microparasites and their invertebrate hosts,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of Bob’s career in the U.K., later described London B 291, 451–524 (1981) by his Merton College sponsors as “stel- 11 J.A.P. Heesterbeek & M.G. Roberts “How math- ematical epidemiology became a field of biology: a commentary on Anderson and May (1981) ‘The popu- 8 Nature 264, 16–17. lation dynamics of microparasites and their inver- tebrate hosts’ Philosophical Transactions of the Royal 9 Andrew J. Hamilton, Robert M. May & Edward K. Society of London B 370 20140307 (2015) http://doi. Waters “Here be dragons,” Nature 520, 42–422 (2015). org/10.1098/rstb.2014.0307

125 Journal & Proceedings of the Royal Society of New South Wales Fisher — Obituary: Lord Robert (Bob) May OM, AC, FRS, FAA, FTSE, DistFRSN for disciplines that complement those for meeting in the Cabinet office where he said which the Nobel Prizes are awarded, and is of one proposal “that’s absolute bullshit.” As of similar value. he left, in company with William Walde- Bob also found his way into the power grave, the latter said “I suspect that’s the structures of various organizations where first time anyone’s ever said `bullshit’ in the he thought he might be able to promote Cabinet office. But it shouldn’t be the last.” his social responsibilities, and especially One obituary reported that Bob was his concern with conservation, and with reproved by the cabinet secretary for swear- making science more a central art of public ing on the grounds that it was the first time dialogue. He became a trustee of Kew Gar- that the f-word had been used in the Cabinet dens in 1991, and of the Nuffield Founda- room. Sir Nicolas Bevan, former secretary tion in 1993, driving its student programmes. to the Speaker of the House of Commons, He was appointed to the Joint Nature Con- wrote a letter pointing out that it was not servancy Council in 1994, and also became the first time, and described the time in 1973 Chairman of Trustees of the Natural His- when Edward Heath had described a paper tory Museum in the same year. Later, he under discussion as “f***ing awful.” would join HSBC’s Corporate Sustainability Bob had a great deal of respect for Tony Board, become an adviser to Tesco’s Sustain- Blair, whom he described to me several times able Consumption Institute, and join the as being “very bright.” It was a compliment U.K.’s Climate Change Committee. that he did not extend to very many other He also began to give public lectures. Ian members of the Government, and he gener- Sloan FRSN was present at one of these12, ally made a point of avoiding them and only organized in conjunction with Bob’s visit speaking to Blair directly. That was as far as to Australia for a conference “Chaos in Aus- he went in talking with me about his dealings tralia.” The lecture was at the Powerhouse with politicians. He may have been very direct, Museum, which seats around 300. But many but he also knew how to keep a confidence. more were present, and to accommodate One of Bob’s major goals as Government them all Bob suggested that he give the lec- Chief Scientist was to explain the impor- ture twice. It was a roaring success on both tance of science to policy makers, and to occasions. guide the ways in which it was used. One The biggest surprise of all, though, was of his first actions was to produce a report when he became Chief Scientific Adviser on the efficiency of British science, showing to the U.K. Government under John Major, that it was the most efficient in the world and then Tony Blair. when it came to global impact. It was while he was preparing this report Chief Scientific Adviser to that a British food research group came the U.K. Government (1995–2000) under press attack for wasting public money, The tales of Bob’s time as a scientific adviser after being awarded a spoof Ig Nobel Prize are legion. He was certainly direct in his for studying how breakfast cereals became approach. Bob himself told the story of a soggy when milk was added. In fact, the research was entirely funded by industry, but that didn’t stop the press. Bob was jus- 12 As was your humble editor — REM.

126 Journal & Proceedings of the Royal Society of New South Wales Fisher — Obituary: Lord Robert (Bob) May OM, AC, FRS, FAA, FTSE, DistFRSN tifiably annoyed, and wrote a sharp letter Sadly, he was unsuccessful (as all subse- to organizer Marc Abrahams demanding quent holders of the post have been) in per- that no more of these prizes be awarded to suading the majority of politicians about the British groups. importance and significance of science. “It Marc showed me the letter once, and it would be quite helpful,” he said at the end of certainly was a beauty. Unfortunately it had his tenure “if some members of government the opposite effect, including my own Ig found out who I was.”13 Nobel in 1999 for using physics to work out the best way to dunk a biscuit. This was the President of the Royal Society consequence of a project that I had used in (2000–2005) my efforts to make science more accessible Bob was knighted during his tenure as Chief by showing how scientists think about eve- Government Scientist, and it was as Sir ryday problems. One of my most treasured Robert May that he was elected as Presi- possessions is the letter that I received out dent of the Royal Society of London in 2000, of the blue from Bob, whom I had not seen following in the footsteps of such luminar- for some time, congratulating me on the ies as Isaac Newton, Joseph Banks, and T.H. success of my endeavours. Huxley. Bob commented that the major- Things took an interesting turn in the next ity who supported his candidature were year, when our mutual friend and colleague keen that the Society should become more Sir Michael Berry (like Bob, a Royal Society involved in public affairs, but there was a Research Professor), along with real Nobel substantial minority who did not approve. laureate André Geim, were offered an Ig He had had the idea while in his Gov- Nobel Prize for using a magnet to levitate ernment role that the best way to hold an a frog. This was again work with a substan- enquiry into an issue where science was the tive purpose (to show that this theoretically focus was “to get some scientific peer who possible effect could be realized in practice), had not been involved to get a group of and the frog was chosen as a quirky-sounding scientific experts to give an analysis of the subject of about the right weight. Michael lessons to be learned.” The lessons in this felt constrained to write to Bob (who, as then case concerned mad cow disease (BSE), but President of the Royal Society, Michael liked Bob’s idea was not taken up, and the very to refer to as his “boss”) about whether he expensive Phillips Inquiry took place, which and André should accept the award. Eventu- Bob later described as “a legalistic enquiry ally they did, making André the only person that would go on for years until everybody in the world to have an Ig Nobel Prize and was safely retired.” The Phillips Inquiry did a real Nobel Prize. in fact take three years, cost £60M, and came Another of Bob’s actions was to prepare to at least one wrong conclusion (that the guidelines for scientific advice to Govern- disease was due to a rogue prion as a spon- ment, where he advocated “a presumption of taneous mutation). openness in explaining the interpretation of scientific advice” — a presumption that was 13 Sadly, it has taken the COVID-19 pandemic to unfortunately diminished, and eventually induce politicians in the U.K. and Australia to act on lost by subsequent governments. scientific advice, at least on medical advice. We can still hope for action on climate science advice. [Ed.]

127 Journal & Proceedings of the Royal Society of New South Wales Fisher — Obituary: Lord Robert (Bob) May OM, AC, FRS, FAA, FTSE, DistFRSN

With his new role in the Royal Society, Member of the House of Lords Bob had another chance. The problem this (2001–2017) time was foot-and-mouth disease, and the In 2000 the Blair Government established government agreed to ask the Society to a “House of Lords Appointments Commis- hold an independent enquiry along the lines sion” whose job was to make recommenda- that Bob had suggested earlier. The enquiry tions for the appointment of non-partisan cost around 1% of the Phillips enquiry, and life peers. The very last time that we met produced its report in less than 12 months. in 2017, Bob told me gleefully “You just The report was also effective, causing the EU applied for them.” And he did, wanting to to change its rules on vaccination so as to be known as Lord May of Woollahra. But it minimize the chances of the problem being seems that the Australian protocol people repeated. were not happy with this idea, and so he Bob was not afraid to voice his opin- became The Lord May of Oxford. ions, and in his role as President of the But why did he want to be a Lord at all? Royal Society he publicly accused Presi- The answer may lie in his suggestion years dent George W. Bush of “fiddling while the earlier about the use of scientific peers to 14 world burns” by ignoring climate change. lead enquiries. It was a role that he could He would later point out in a lecture to the still usefully serve, especially after his term 15 Royal Society of Chemistry that the very as President of the Royal Society was over, phrase “climate change” had been invented and he took full advantage. He sat on the by a Bush adviser to displace the more spe- Science and Technology Committee, and cific “global warming.” contributed to 53 debates in his usual inci- His scorn for sloppy thinking was not sive style. confined to politicians. I was present on one He also sat several times on the Economic occasion at the Royal Society when Bob was Affairs Committee, and thereby hangs a tale. in the chair at a meeting where a prominent In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis Bob biologist attempted to give a physics parallel teamed up with Andy Haldane, now the to a biological effect. “That’s wrong,” said chief economist of the Bank of England and Bob loudly. regarded by Time magazine as one of the Bob’s “in your face” comments about 100 most influential people in the world, major issues with a scientific component to examine this crisis between a network (especially climate change) sometimes of financial institutions. The idea was to caused controversy, and provoked opposi- examine the network from the perspective 16 tion from those with vested interests but of Bob’s ecological network theory, and set a trend for the Society that continues to see whether this offered any ideas for to this day. avoiding future crises. It did, and the result was the brilliant “Systemic risk in banking 14 https://web.archive.org/web/20050315035945/ ecosystems.”17 http://www.commondreams.org/headlines05/0307-03. htm 15 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_rFUC_5hBwI 16 https://www.thegwpf.org/images/stories/gwpf- 17 Andrew G. Haldane & Robert M. May “Systemic reports/montford-royal_society.pdf risk in banking ecosystems,” Nature 469, 351–355 (2011).

128 Journal & Proceedings of the Royal Society of New South Wales Fisher — Obituary: Lord Robert (Bob) May OM, AC, FRS, FAA, FTSE, DistFRSN

But there was a snag. Bob told me that him to say “There is no risk” or, at worst they tried all five of the major economics “There is negligible risk.” Nor were they journals, and that it was rejected by all of interested in his comparisons with measles, them. That is why the paper was eventually where the risks have been quantified. published in Nature — a premier journal for Bob was at his best in explaining science to scientists, but not read by economists. Per- non-scientists in an exact but understand- haps they should. able way. His abrupt, incisive style was less Bob certainly enjoyed his time in the suited to getting over the message about House of Lords — including the bridge com- what this meant, even though he was well petition, where I would get regular reports aware of “how inherent uncertainties and about his success (especially when he won imprecisions in the area of human social a brilliancy prize). But his success in using behaviour can affect our ability to gather it as a lever to advance the cause of science and interpret statistical information about in political decision-making was perhaps ourselves.” more problematic. But no other style, whether that of Atten- He had more success when it came to the borough, Sagan, Asimov or others, has been many public talks that he was now giving. notably more successful in making science The Darwin lectures of 2011 were a particu- more a part of our culture. Bob was a living lar example, where he spoke18 on the topic example of how this could be achieved, and “What does the future hold?” and argued that perhaps that is his greatest legacy — that, the rise in fundamentalism in both East and and the stimulus that he gave to so many West is a reaction to the cooperative change of us. that we need, but which would mean sac- Bob’s portrait in Australia’s National Por- rifice of individual liberties (or, worse still, trait Gallery shows him with a taxidermy property). specimen of an extinct thylacine on his lap. He also gave talks on science advice and To him, science was a game, but the con- policy making, based on his experience as servation of our planet and its inhabitants Chief Government Scientist, where he had certainly was not. His induction as a Dis- begun his tenure with the belief that his job tinguished Fellow of the RSNSW at Gov- was to speak truth to power. As he said in ernment House was presided over by Marie one talk19, he and other scientists sometimes Bashir, whom his wife Judith remembers as found this difficult because politics has a “saying such nice things.” We could do with different tribal culture. This was especially more like him, even though in many respects so when it came to public expressions about he was totally one of a kind. risk. With the MMR vaccine, for example, he was rapped over the knuckles for using — Len Fisher the scientists’ precise expression “There is no evidence that there is anything to worry about,” when his political masters wished

18 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PRat04F6ZyM 19 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_rFUC_5hBwI

129 Journal & Proceedings of the Royal Society of New South Wales Fisher — Obituary: Lord Robert (Bob) May OM, AC, FRS, FAA, FTSE, DistFRSN

References May, R.M. (1970) “Profile of a physics Anderson, R.M. & May, R.M. (1981) “The department,” The Australian Physicist (June population dynamics of microparasites issue, 87–90. and their invertebrate hosts,” Philosophical May, R.M. (1971) “Some mathematical remarks Transactions of the Royal Society of London B on the paradox of voting,” Behavioral Science 291, 451–524. 16: 143–151. Gleick, J. (1987) Chaos: Making a New Science, May, R.M. (1972) “Will a large complex system Viking. be stable?” Nature. 238 (5364): 413–414. Haldane., A.G. & May, R.M. (2011) “Systemic May, R.M. & MacArthur, R.H. (1972) “Niche risk in banking ecosystems,” Nature 469: overlap as a function of environmental 351–355. variability” Proceedings of the National Hamilton, A.J., May, R.M. & Waters, E.K. Academy of Science of the USA 69, 1109–1113. (2015) “Here be dragons,” Nature 520, 42–422. May, R.M. (ed.) (1976) Theoretical Ecology: Heesterbeek, J.A.P. & Roberts, M.G. (2015) Principles and Applications, O.U.P. “How mathematical epidemiology became a May, R.M. (1976) “Simple mathematical field of biology: a commentary on Anderson models with very complicated dynamics,” and May (1981) ‘The population dynamics of Nature 261 (5560): 459–467. microparasites and their invertebrate hosts’,” May, R.M. (1976) “The ecology of dragons,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of Nature 264: 16–17. London B 370 20140307 http://doi.org/10.1098/ Watt, K.E.F. (1968) Ecology and Resource rstb.2014.0307 Management: a Quantitative Approach. New York: McGraw-Hill.

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