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Initial Appraisal: Case for Change Highlands and Islands Region February 2020 STPR2: Initial Appraisal: Case for Change - Highlands and Islands Region

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Initial Appraisal: Case for Change Highlands and Islands Region February 2020 STPR2: Initial Appraisal: Case for Change - Highlands and Islands Region Strategic Transport Projects Review (STPR2) Consultancy Support Services Contract Initial Appraisal: Case for Change Highlands and Islands Region February 2020 STPR2: Initial Appraisal: Case for Change - Highlands and Islands Region STRATEGIC TRANSPORT PROGJECTS REVIEW #2 Project No: B2356701 Document Title: STPR2: Initial Appraisal: Case for Change – Highlands and Islands Region Document No.: 2 Revision: Draft for Publication Date: 26/02/20 Jacobs UK Ltd. 95 Bothwell Street Glasgow, Scotland G2 7HX United Kingdom T +44.(0)141 243 8000 F +44 (0)141 226 3109 www.jacobs.com © Copyright 2020 Jacobs UK Ltd and AECOM Limited. The concepts and information contained in this document are the property of Jacobs and AECOM. Use or copying of this document in whole or in part without the written permission of Jacobs and AECOM constitutes an infringement of copyright. Limitation: This document has been prepared on behalf of, and for the exclusive use of Jacobs’ and AECOM client, and is subject to, and issued in accordance with, the provisions of the contract between Jacobs, AECOM and the client. Jacobs and AECOM accepts no liability or responsibility whatsoever for, or in respect of, any use of, or reliance upon, this document by any third party. Strategic Transport Projects Review (STPR2) Consultancy Support Services Contract STPR2: Initial Appraisal: Case for Change - Highlands and Islands Region Contents 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................. 1 2. Context ........................................................................................................................ 4 2.1. Policy Context ....................................................................................................... 4 2.2. Geographical Context ........................................................................................... 6 2.3. Socio Economic Context ....................................................................................... 7 2.4. Environmental Context ........................................................................................ 25 2.5. Transport Context ............................................................................................... 26 2.6. Context Summary ............................................................................................... 31 3. Problems & Opportunities.......................................................................................... 33 3.1. Approach to Problem & Opportunity Identification .............................................. 33 3.2. Problem & Opportunities ..................................................................................... 34 4. Transport Planning Objectives .................................................................................. 57 4.1. National and Regional Objectives ....................................................................... 57 5. Approach to Option Generation and Sifting ............................................................... 61 5.1. Approach ............................................................................................................. 61 5.2. Next Steps .......................................................................................................... 64 Strategic Transport Projects Review (STPR2) i STPR2: Initial Appraisal: Case for Change - Highlands and Islands Region Figures Figure 1: The four key phases of the Scottish transport appraisal guidance........................ 1 Figure 2: Highlands and Islands Study area ........................................................................ 2 Figure 3: Policy Review ....................................................................................................... 5 Figure 4: Urban-Rural 2016 Scottish Government 6-Fold Classification .............................. 7 Figure 5: Highlands and Islands Largest Settlements by Population 2016, 2018 Population and Population Density ........................................................................................................ 8 Figure 6: Top 10 Settlements Population Change ............................................................... 9 Figure 7: Population Age Structure Comparison – 2011 to 2018 ....................................... 10 Figure 8: Travel to Work Mode Share ................................................................................ 11 Figure 9: Car Ownership .................................................................................................... 11 Figure 10: Distance Travelled to Work ............................................................................... 12 Figure 11: Index of GVA, Highland Council and Scotland, 2008-2018 .............................. 13 Figure 12 Sector GVA Share Highland Council vs Scotland 2018 ..................................... 14 Figure 13: Index of GVA, Islands and Scotland, 2008-2018 .............................................. 15 Figure 14: Sector GVA Share Islands vs Scotland 2018.................................................... 15 Figure 15: Index of GVA, Moray and Scotland, 2008-2018................................................ 16 Figure 16: Sector GVA Share Moray and Scotland, 2008-2018 ........................................ 17 Figure 17: Percentage of People Working in Each Industry Sector for Highlands and Islands Region ................................................................................................................... 18 Figure 18: Transport Expenditure (%) relative to Household Budgets ............................... 19 Figure 19 :Access to Key Employment Centres by Public Transport ................................. 20 Figure 20: Access to Employment Central Highland and Moray ........................................ 21 Figure 21: Highlands and Islands Region - Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation ............ 22 Figure 22: Elgin Overall SIMD ........................................................................................... 23 Figure 23: Inverness Overall SIMD .................................................................................... 23 Figure 24: Proposition of Population with a Long Term Physical or Mental Health Condition ........................................................................................................................................... 24 Figure 25: Environmental Baseline .................................................................................... 25 Figure 26: Highlands and Islands Transport Network ........................................................ 26 Figure 27: Stakeholder Engagement ................................................................................. 34 Figure 28: SIMD - Access Deprivation ............................................................................... 35 Figure 29: Transport Expenditure (%) relative to Household Budgets ............................... 37 Figure 30 Transport Poverty in the Highland and Islands Region ...................................... 38 Figure 31 Passenger and Car numbers of Ullapool to Stornoway Route by year .............. 40 Figure 32: Far North Line Journey Times to Inverness ...................................................... 43 Figure 33: No Car Ownership in the Highlands and Islands (Click image to enlarge figure) ........................................................................................................................................... 48 Figure 34: Average Distance to Charging Points ............................................................... 53 Figure 35: Broadband Connectivity (Highlands and Islands Local Authorities vs All Local Authorities) ......................................................................................................................... 54 Figure 36 Approach to Option Generation and Sifting ....................................................... 63 Figure 37: The Sustainable Investment Hierarchy ............................................................. 64 Strategic Transport Projects Review (STPR2) ii STPR2: Initial Appraisal: Case for Change - Highlands and Islands Region Tables Table 1: Total Entries & Exits (000s) and Percentage Change between 2012/13 and 2017/18 ..... 28 Table 2: Highlands and Islands Top Five Rail Stations by 2017/18 Patronage and Top Five Stations by 10-Year Growth (000s) 2007/08-2017/18 ................................................................................. 28 Table 3: Highlands and Islands Ferry Services .............................................................................. 29 Table 4: Length of the Highlands and Islands Road Network by Type ........................................... 30 Table 5: Passenger Numbers Change at Highlands and Islands Airports Since 2012. .................. 31 Table 6: Viable Working Day (10am-4pm) in Scottish Cities from Various Settlements ................. 36 Table 7: Local and Regional Fares ............................................................................................... 39 Table 8: Highlands and Islands vs Scotland % Peak Hour Traffic Flow Changes 2012/13 to 2017/18 ......................................................................................................................................... 41 Table 9: Diversion Routes ............................................................................................................. 45 Table 10: National TPOs and the Regional Objectives .................................................................
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