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French Intercity Saint-Quentin-En-Yvelines Outlook to Stable from Positive on Slowed Debt Reduction; 'AA-/A-1+' Affirmed

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French Intercity Saint-Quentin-En-Yvelines Outlook to Stable from Positive on Slowed Debt Reduction; 'AA-/A-1+' Affirmed Research Update: French Intercity Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines Outlook To Stable From Positive On Slowed Debt Reduction; 'AA-/A-1+' Affirmed December 11, 2020 Overview PRIMARY CREDIT ANALYST - Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines will likely see a smaller surplus after capital accounts and reduce Stephanie Mery debt at a slower pace over the coming two years due to COVID-19-related constraints on Paris revenue, increased contributions to equalization, and trimmed central government transfers. + 0033144207344 stephanie.mery - Nevertheless, we expect the intercity's robust liquidity position, tight control over operating @spglobal.com expenditure, and decelerated capital expenditure will soften the impact on its budgetary SECONDARY CONTACT results. Hugo Soubrier - We are revising our outlook on Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines to stable from positive and affirming Paris our 'AA-/A-1+' ratings. hugo.soubrier @spglobal.com - The stable outlook reflects our expectation that, despite a contraction in the operating margin ADDITIONAL CONTACT through 2020-2022, Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines' economic activity will begin to recover from mid-2021, with gradually improving budgetary results that usher in robust operating balances EMEA Sovereign and IPF and a slowly declining debt burden over the outlook horizon. SovereignIPF @spglobal.com Rating Action On Dec. 11, 2020, S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on French Intercity of Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (SQY) to stable from positive. At the same time, we affirmed the 'AA-' long-term and 'A-1+' short-term issuer credit ratings. Outlook The stable outlook reflects our expectation that, while reduced revenues and, in particular, a temporary decrease of corporate value added tax (CVAE) will weaken SQY's fiscal results, the intercity's budgetary positions are strong enough to withstand COVID-19-related headwinds. We currently assume that SQY will continue to implement its investment program, albeit with less www.spglobal.com/ratingsdirect December 11, 2020 1 Research Update: French Intercity Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines Outlook To Stable From Positive On Slowed Debt Reduction; 'AA-/A-1+' Affirmed vigor than historically. This will dent surpluses and drag on SQY's efforts to alleviate the debt burden. Downside scenario We could lower the ratings in the next two years if the effects of the pandemic contributed to a larger contraction and prolonged weakness in operating revenues. Ratings pressure could also stem from looser fiscal discipline that resulted in weaker performance and a less favorable liquidity position. Upside scenario We could raise the ratings over the next two years if the intercity were to restore its budgetary performance and result in robust operating balances, for example, that would enable SQY to reduce its debt burden faster than we currently forecast, while maintaining a very favorable liquidity position. Rationale We expect COVID-19-related economic impacts will weigh on SQY's operating revenue in the next couple of years. This, alongside increasing contributions to equalization and marginally lower central government transfers, slightly deteriorates the intercity's operating balance. However, we expect SQY to weather the shock and continue to report strong credit metrics, thanks to its disciplined pursuit of financial stability and expenditure control. Although the debt burden remains comparatively high, we recognize the intercity's commitment to deleveraging and we think it will ease its debt burden over the next two years thanks to structural, albeit lower, surpluses. Furthermore, SQY has solid liquidity. The intercity's new executive government, appointed after the June 2020 local elections, will decide on its capital plan in first-quarter 2021. We will monitor the plan's effect on budgetary and liquidity metrics. Sustained--but reduced--surpluses should help SQY gradually alleviate its debt burden by 2022 COVID-19 fallout will have a limited impact on SQY's operating performance in 2020. More severe effects, however, will materialize in 2021 and 2022, due to the upcoming sharp decline in the CVAE (almost one-fifth of operating revenue in 2020). We estimate the French economy will contract by 9% in real terms this year, and this will likely prompt a drop in value-added taxes that will primarily affect revenue in 2022 because of advance payments. This, coupled with increasing contributions to equalization and marginally lower central government transfers, leads us to expect a slight deviation in the budget trajectory compared with our previous forecasts. In our base-case scenario, we expect SQY's operating surpluses will remain high, averaging 19% of operating revenue through 2022 (versus 27% in 2019). SQY's operating performance benefits from its tight control over operating expenditure (opex), with precise savings targets that make allowances for the rise in equalization spending. Together with capital revenue, these operating surpluses will fully cover the intercity's capital expenditure, which we expect will average €44 million per year over 2020-2022. Although the average balance after capital accounts should decrease through 2022 (to 6.5% of total revenue on average from 8% in 2019), budgetary performance remains very strong in an international comparison. www.spglobal.com/ratingsdirect December 11, 2020 2 Research Update: French Intercity Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines Outlook To Stable From Positive On Slowed Debt Reduction; 'AA-/A-1+' Affirmed Thanks to a track record of very strong performance, SQY has significantly reduced its direct debt. We now anticipate that debt will decrease, although at a slower pace, by 2022. We forecast tax-supported debt, which includes public-private partnerships, at 167% of operating revenue at end-2022, compared with 175% in 2019. We consider exposure to contingent liabilities as significant. That said, we believe the corresponding risks are low given that those liabilities mainly relate to social housing, for which we consider the national financial and regulatory framework supportive. Recurring surpluses, notably on the ancillary budget for urban planning, enabled material cash accumulation. We expect cash will amount to more than 100% of the debt service in the next 12 months. In addition, SQY has satisfactory access to external liquidity sources, demonstrated by regular access to a varied pool of domestic banks. Moreover, like all French local and regional governments, SQY benefits from regular and predictable cash flows from central government transfers and tax payments. Prudent financial management, a wealthy and resilient local economy, and the institutional framework keep COVID-19-related headwinds at bay Located in the wealthy department of Yvelines, near Paris, SQY is a prominent economic center in terms of business and research on both the regional and national level. This translates into a comparatively high GDP per capita nationally. SQY is home to many corporate headquarters and research and development centers. Although the notable presence of the automotive sector creates some concentration, we note that the local economy has been gradually diversifying toward the aeronautics and banking sectors, among other industries. Still, we observe that these sectors in particular will be severely hit by the recession and restrictions triggered by the pandemic. SQY operates within an institutional framework that is marked by a high degree of stability and flexibility in an international context. French intercities generally have the ability to match expenditure well with revenue and often anticipate reforms well in advance. The French parliament approved in December 2019 a national reform of local taxation. As a result, from 2021 French intercities will not receive the proceeds of the housing tax (10% of SQY's operating revenue in 2020). Instead, they will receive a share of national VAT without any leeway on the rate. In 2021, SQY will receive a share equal to the proceeds of the housing tax in 2020. Then, because the amount of VAT will fluctuate with economic growth, the intercity will not bear the cost of the likely drop in VAT in 2020. We believe this would have a limited impact in terms of SQY's revenue flexibility and revenue growth in the medium term. However, we anticipate that SQY's budgetary performance will feel the weight of an increase in the mandatory contribution to the municipal equalization fund. Because of its former special status as a "syndicat d'agglomération nouvelle" (SAN), SQY has contributed significantly less than other cities and intercities to this fund. The central government decided in 2018 to remove this advantage. Although the reform is gradual and should not have a substantial impact on a consolidated basis, it will constrain the main budget, which has to be balanced on a stand-alone basis. Tight control over spending should mitigate this pressure. The intercity's management framework remains strong. It uses a prudent approach, consisting of solid budget monitoring, clear budgetary and debt targets, detailed and realistic financial planning, and careful debt management. We expect debt reduction will continue through 2022, though at a slower pace, but remain above SQY's own deleveraging target of at least €4 million per year. This will be achieved thanks to strong control over opex. We view positively management's decision to set precise savings targets in terms of opex in order to absorb the increase in www.spglobal.com/ratingsdirect December 11, 2020 3 Research Update: French Intercity Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines
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