THE GOLDEN TOUCH Rolling with the Lords of the Craps Table by Mattathias Schwartz
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A Probabilistic Study of Dice Control in Craps
Golden Arm: A Probabilistic Study of Dice Control in Craps Donald R. Smith Robert Scott III Abstract This paper calculates how much control a craps shooter must possess on dice outcomes to eliminate the house advantage. A golden arm is someone who has dice control (or a rhythm roller or dice influencer). There are various strategies for dice control in craps. We discuss several possibilities of dice control that would result in several different mathematical models of control. We do not assert whether dice control is possible or not (there is a lack of published evidence). However, after studying casino-legal methods described by dice-control advocates, we can see only one realistic mathematical model that describes the resulting possible dice control, that in which the four faces on a rotating (horizontal) axis are favored. This is the model that we analyze in this paper. Keywords: craps; dice; dice control; probability Donald R. Smith Associate Professor Department of Management and Decision Sciences Monmouth University [email protected] Robert Scott III Professor Department of Economics, Finance, and Real Estate Monmouth University [email protected] UNLV Gaming Research & Review Journal t Volume 22 Issue 1 29 Wine loved I deeply, dice dearly (William Shakespeare, King Lear, Act 3, Scene 4) Introduction Craps is a unique casino game because the shooter directly affects (i.e., picks up and throws) the gambling instruments (dice). Craps players, more than other casino gamblers, may be the most susceptible to Langer’s (1975) illusion of control where they think they can control the outcome of a random game. -
Mississippi Gaming Regulations
MISSISSIPPI GAMING REGULATIONS 2013 Edition Revised format June 2013 Table of Contents Title 13: Gaming .......................................................................................................................................... 16 Part 1: Organization and Administration ................................................................................................... 16 Part 1 Chapter 1: GENERAL PROVISIONS .................................................................................................... 16 Rule 1.1 Appointment Of Committees. ................................................................................................... 16 Rule 1.2 Definitions. ................................................................................................................................ 16 Part 1 Chapter 2: PUBLIC AND CONFIDENTIAL RECORDS .......................................................................... 16 Rule 2.1 Definitions. ................................................................................................................................ 16 Rule 2.2 Confidential Records. ................................................................................................................ 18 Rule 2.3 Sealing Of Documents. .............................................................................................................. 19 Rule 2.4 Access To Public Records. ......................................................................................................... 19 Rule 2.5 Access To -
1952 Washington UFO Sightings • Psychic Pets and Pet Psychics • the Skeptical Environmentalist Skeptical Inquirer the MAGAZINE for SCIENCE and REASON Volume 26,.No
1952 Washington UFO Sightings • Psychic Pets and Pet Psychics • The Skeptical Environmentalist Skeptical Inquirer THE MAGAZINE FOR SCIENCE AND REASON Volume 26,.No. 6 • November/December 2002 ppfjlffl-f]^;, rj-r ci-s'.n.: -/: •:.'.% hstisnorm-i nor mm . o THE COMMITTEE FOR THE SCIENTIFIC INVESTIGATION OF CLAIMS OF THE PARANORMAL AT THE CENTER FOR INQUIRY-INTERNATIONAL (ADJACENT TO THE STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK AT BUFFALO) • AN INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION Paul Kurtz, Chairman; professor emeritus of philosophy. State University of New York at Buffalo Barry Karr, Executive Director Joe Nickell, Senior Research Fellow Massimo Polidoro, Research Fellow Richard Wiseman, Research Fellow Lee Nisbet Special Projects Director FELLOWS James E. Alcock,* psychologist. York Univ., Consultants, New York. NY Irmgard Oepen, professor of medicine Toronto Susan Haack. Cooper Senior Scholar in Arts (retired), Marburg, Germany Jerry Andrus, magician and inventor, Albany, and Sciences, prof, of philosophy, University Loren Pankratz, psychologist, Oregon Health Oregon of Miami Sciences Univ. Marcia Angell, M.D., former editor-in-chief. C. E. M. Hansel, psychologist. Univ. of Wales John Paulos, mathematician, Temple Univ. New England Journal of Medicine Al Hibbs, scientist, Jet Propulsion Laboratory Steven Pinker, cognitive scientist, MIT Robert A. Baker, psychologist. Univ. of Douglas Hofstadter, professor of human Massimo Polidoro, science writer, author, Kentucky understanding and cognitive science, executive director CICAP, Italy Stephen Barrett, M.D., psychiatrist, author. Indiana Univ. Milton Rosenberg, psychologist, Univ. of consumer advocate, Allentown, Pa. Gerald Holton, Mallinckrodt Professor of Chicago Barry Beyerstein,* biopsychologist, Simon Physics and professor of history of science, Wallace Sampson, M.D., clinical professor of Harvard Univ. Fraser Univ., Vancouver, B.C., Canada medicine, Stanford Univ., editor, Scientific Ray Hyman.* psychologist, Univ. -
The Theory of Dice Control
SMARTCRAPS.rtf Smart Craps Page 24 of 163 The Theory of Dice Control This chapter is intended as a brief summary only on dice control and the physical skill of dice setting. If you want to master the physical skill of dice setting, you will want to read and consult with some of the resources in the "Resources »Page 7" section of this documentation. Unlike card counting in blackjack, dice setting is a physical skill, and cannot be mastered through reading and mental practice alone. Dice setters attempt to control the physical throw of the dice in such a way as to influence the outcome of the dice. This skill, when used consciously at different points in the game, generates a non-random distribution of outcomes, which the shooter hopes reverses the casino's edge in the game to the player's favor. To understand the physics of dice control, let's look at an actual craps table: Figure 1: Axes of rotation on a craps table With these labels, we can see that a shooter will be throwing the dice along the X axis toward the end of the table. Generally, a skilled dice setter will hold the dice together, parallel to the Z axis, as shown below: SMARTCRAPS.rtf Smart Craps Page 25 of 163 Figure 2: Throwing the dice parallel to the Z axis of the table A typical controlled shooter is attempting to cause the dice to rotate only around the Z axis. In theory, any spin in the Y or X axis can introduce unexpected bounces and a less controlled outcome. -
State of the States 2020 the AGA Survey of the Commercial Casino Industry a Message from the American Gaming Association
State of the States 2020 The AGA Survey of the Commercial Casino Industry A Message from the American Gaming Association June 2020 Dear Gaming Industry Colleague: gaming. Sports betting was being legalized at an unprecedented pace, with 20 states and the District of I am pleased to present State of the States 2020: Columbia having passed legislation allowing consumers The AGA Survey of the Commercial Casino Industry, to bet on sports with legal, regulated operators. the American Gaming Association’s (AGA) signature research report and the definitive economic analysis The AGA continues its important work as your of U.S. commercial gaming in 2019. advocate. Here in Washington, DC, we continue to cultivate Congressional champions from gaming 2019 marked another record-setting year for the communities and strengthen our voice on Capitol commercial gaming segment. Helped in part by the Hill. In states across the country, we are working with expansion of legal sports betting, the commercial industry leaders and regulators to give operators and casino sector logged its fifth consecutive year of suppliers more flexibility in running their businesses gaming revenue growth in 2019—surging 3.7 percent and evolve regulation to meet the demands of our to $43.6 billion, a new historic high. 21st century hospitality industry. At the end of 2019, Americans never had a higher On a personal note, it has been a privilege to get to opinion of our industry and nearly half said they know many of you during my first year as the AGA’s planned to visit a casino over the next year. -
The Person Whose Turn It Is to Roll the Dice Is the “Shooter.” the Results of the Shooter’S Rolls Will Determine the Outcome for All Players
CRAPS HOW TO PLAY The person whose turn it is to roll the dice is the “shooter.” The results of the shooter’s rolls will determine the outcome for all players. On the shooter’s first roll, or “come-out,” players wager by placing chips on either the Pass Line or the Don’t Pass Line. If the shooter rolls a 7 or 11 on the first throw, Pass Line bets win. If a 2, 3, or 12 is thrown, Pass Line bets lose. Conversely, if the shooter throws a 2 or 3, Don’t Pass wagers win. If a 7 or 11 is thrown, Don’t Pass bets lose. If a 12 is thrown, it is a “push” and no one wins. If a 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10 is rolled, that number becomes the “point,” and is marked on the betting layout with a puck. If he/she rolls this point again before rolling a 7, bets on the Pass Line win, while Don’t Pass bets lose. Then the shooter starts over with a brand new roll. Let’s start with an explanation of Craps terms and how they apply to the game. COME OUT ROLL - This is either the first roll of the dice with a new shooter, or the first roll of the dice after the shooter has made a point. A point is established on the Come Out Roll if the shooter rolls 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10. This point must then be rolled again before a 7. Any Player, including the shooter, may either bet on the Pass Line or the Don’t Pass Line prior to the Come Out Roll. -
Experiments in Dice Control Robert H
Pair-a-Dice Lost: Experiments in Dice Control Robert H. Scott III Donald R. Smith “We may throw the dice, but the Lord determines how they fall” (Bible.com). This paper presents our findings from experiments designed to test whether we could use a custom-made dice throwing machine applying common dice control methods to produce dice rolls that differ from random. In earlier research we used a popular method of dice control to calculate how much “control” a shooter needs to overcome the casino’s advantage (Smith and Scott, 2018). We found that a shooter only needs an 8.031% level of control (0% is random and 100% is perfect horizontal-axis control of both dice) to erase the casino’s advantage of 1.41% for a standard pass line bet.1 This finding supports a common claim among dice controllers that you do not need to throw the dice perfectly every time to win, simply throwing the dice with a little more control than a random throw is enough. The natural follow-up question is: Can a human being achieve the desired level of control under normal casino conditions? This question has not been answered elsewhere. Even documented evidence of extremely long craps hands is not as intuitively convincing as it may appear. We decided to run experiments to see if a dice throwing machine that generally mimics the biomechanical properties of expert craps players (e.g., back spin, on-axis throw, repeatable throwing angle etc.) could achieve at least a break-even level of control. Using our machine (named “Lucky Lil”) on a 6’ foot craps table we filmed dice throws using a Phantom® VEO4K 990s high-speed digital camera that captured video in 4K resolution. -
In Dogs We Trust? Intersubjectivity, Response-Able Relations, and the Making of Mine Detector Dogs
Journal of the History of the Behavioral Sciences, Vol. 50(1), 1–36 Winter 2014 View this article online at Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com). DOI: 10.1002/jhbs.21642 C 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. ⃝ IN DOGS WE TRUST? INTERSUBJECTIVITY, RESPONSE-ABLE RELATIONS, AND THE MAKING OF MINE DETECTOR DOGS ROBERT G. W. KIRK The utility of the dog as a mine detector has divided the mine clearance community since dogs were first used for this purpose during the Second World War. This paper adopts a his- torical perspective to investigate how, why, and to what consequence, the use of minedogs remains contested despite decades of research into their abilities. It explores the changing factors that have made it possible to think that dogs could, or could not, serve as reliable detectors of landmines over time. Beginning with an analysis of the wartime context that shaped the creation of minedogs, the paper then examines two contemporaneous investi- gations undertaken in the 1950s. The first, a British investigation pursued by the anatomist Solly Zuckerman, concluded that dogs could never be the mine hunter’s best friend. The second, an American study led by the parapsychologist J. B. Rhine, suggested dogs were potentially useful for mine clearance. Drawing on literature from science studies and the emerging subdiscipline of “animal studies,” it is argued that cross-species intersubjectivity played a significant role in determining these different positions. The conceptual landscapes of Zuckerman and Rhine’s disciplinary backgrounds are shown to have produced distinct approaches to managing cross-species relations, thus explaining how diverse opinions on minedog can coexist. -
CRAPS BETS Come out Roll
CRAPS CRAPS BETS Come Out Roll: The first roll of the dice at the opening of the game or the next roll of the dice after a decision with respect to Pass Bet and Don’t Pass Bet. Come Out Point: A total of 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10 thrown by the shooter on the Come Out roll. Pass Line: A Pass Line wager is placed immediately prior to the Come Out roll. You win on 7 and 11 and lose on 2, 3, or 12 on the Come Out roll. If any other number rolls, it’s your point. If your point rolls before 7, you win. If 7 rolls before your point, you lose and the dice move to the next shooter. Pass Line Bets cannot be reduced or removed after the point is established. This bet pays even money. Don’t Pass Line: A bet on this line plays the game in reverse of the Pass Line. You lose on 7 and 11 and win on 2 and 3 on the Come Out roll. When 12 is rolled, it’s a Standoff. When 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10 rolls, it is the point. You are betting that 7 will be rolled before the point. This bet must be placed before the Come Out roll, but may be removed or decreased after a point is established; however it may not be replaced or increased after such removal or reduction. This bet pays even money. Come: You can bet on Come at any time after the Come Out roll. -
Rules-For-Basic-Craps.Pdf
Craps Rules Rules and how to play Craps: The basics Casino Craps (or Bank Craps), a dice game, is one of the most exciting casino games. It is common to hear yelling and shouting at a craps table. It is played on a purpose-built table and two dice are used. The dice are made after very strict standards and are routinely inspected for any damage. As a matter of course, the dice are replaced with new ones after about eight hours of use, and casinos have implemented rules in the way a player handles them. To begin, the Shooter (one of the players) must bet at least the table minimum on either the Pass Line or the Don't Pass Line (sometimes called 'win' or 'right' bets and 'don’t win' or 'wrong' bets). The shooter is presented with multiple dice (normally five) by the Stickman, and must choose two to roll with. The remaining dice are returned to the Stickman's Bowl and are not used. The shooter must handle the dice with one hand only when throwing and the dice must hit the walls on the opposite end of the table. In the event that one or both dice are thrown off the table, they must be inspected (usually by the stickman) before putting them back into play. The craps table can accommodate up to about 20 players, who each get a round of throws or at 'shooting' the dice. If you don't want to throw the dice, you can bet on the thrower. Several types of bets can be made on the table action. -
Casino Craps
CASINO CRAPS Introduction: Casino Craps is played by players against the house. Players take turns rolling the dice. The player rolling the dice is called the “shooter”. The game is played in rounds, with the first roll of a new round called the “come out roll”. Player wager money against the casino on the outcome of first roll, or of a series of rolls of two dice. Rules of Play: On the come out roll if the total of the two dice is 2, 3,7,11 or 12 the round ends immediately and the shooter must roll another come out roll. A result of 2, 3 or 12 is called „craps‟ while a result of 7, 11 is called a „win‟ or a „natural‟. When any other number (4,5,6,8,9 or 10) is rolled on the come-out roll, this number becomes what is called the point. If a point is established, then the shooter will re-roll the dice continuously until either a 7 is rolled or the point is rolled again. If the shooter rolls point again, the round ends and the game start over with the same shooter rolling another come-out roll. If the shooter rolls a 7 instead of the point, this is called a „seven- out‟, the round ends, and the dice pass to the next player to the left, who becomes the new shooter. Betting: Players can make any of a large number of bets. Most of these are betting on the outcome of the first roll (win or craps) or on the way the round will end (point comes or a seven out). -
Use It! Don't Lose It
7th Grade IP 612-2 UseUse It!It! Don’tDon’t LoseLose It!It! DAILY LANGUAGE PRACTICE By Marjorie Frank Use It! Don’t Lose It! LANGUAGE Daily Skills Practice Grade 7 by Marjorie Frank Thanks to Erin Linton for her assistance in researching topics, checking facts, and tracking down trivia. Illustrated by Kathleen Bullock Cover by Geoffrey Brittingham Edited by Jill Norris Copy edited by Cary Grayson ISBN 978-0-86530-652-3 Copyright ©2006 by Incentive Publications, Inc., Nashville, TN. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise) without written permission from Incentive Publications, Inc., with the exception below. Pages labeled with the statement ©2006 by Incentive Publications, Inc., Nashville, TN are intended for reproduction. Permission is hereby granted to the purchaser of one copy of USE IT! DON’T LOSE IT! LANGUAGE DAILY SKILLS PRACTICE 7 to reproduce these pages in sufficient quantities for meeting the purchaser’s own classroom needs only. 2345678910 090807 PRINTED IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA www.incentivepublications.com Don’t let those language skills get lost or rusty! As a teacher you work hard to teach language skills to your students. Your students work hard to master them. Do you worry that your students will forget the material as you move on to the next concept? If so, here’s a plan for you and your students—one that will keep those skills sharp. Use It! Don’t Lose It! provides daily language practice for all the basic skills.