THE VELVET REVOLUTION – ARMENIAN VERSION IVLIAN HAINDRAVA 113 EXPERT OPINION ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÓÔÒÀÔÄÂÉÉÓÀ ÃÀ ÓÀÄÒÈÀÛÏÒÉÓÏ ÖÒÈÉÄÒÈÏÁÀÈÀ ÊÅËÄÅÉÓ ×ÏÍÃÉ GEORGIAN FOUNDATION FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES EXPERT OPINION IVLIAN HAINDRAVA THE VELVET REVOLUTION – ARMENIAN VERSION 113 2019 The publication is made possible with the support of the US Embassy in Georgia. The views expressed in the publication are the sole responsibility of the author and do not in any way represent the views of the Embassy. Technical Editor: Artem Melik-Nubarov All rights reserved and belong to Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, including electronic and mechanical, without the prior written permission of the publisher. The opinions and conclusions expressed are those of the author/s and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies. Copyright © 2019 Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies ISSN 1512-4835 ISBN 978-9941-8-0960-6 Early parliamentary elections in Armenia on December 9 put a legal end to a nine- month process of the change of power. The Velvet Revolution, as it was labeled by the principal creator of this revolution, Nikol Pashinyan, is over. The complex stage of fulfilling the revolutionary promises begins which will reveal whether or not it was worth a try. Let me start telling about the 2018 adventure of our neighbor and friend – Armenia – with a “confession testimony.” Almost a year ago at a discussion held at the Levan Mikeladze Foundation, I argued that, despite the new constitutional model to come into force (more about this later), Armenia was not going to face any major shock waves. Since events have unfolded in a dramatically different fashion, the only remaining consolation is that I supported my prediction at that time with seemingly convincing data. Judge for yourself. In the last pre-revolutionary parliamentary election held in April 2017, the ruling (Republican) party won almost 50% of the votes and secured a comfortable majority in the National Assembly (Parliament) - 58 seats out of 105.1 Along with them, the parliamentary mandates have been distributed to more so long-term partners than rivals (rarely – the opposite) of the Republicans, Prosperous Armenia party (31) (the very same Tsarukyan’s Alliance) and Dashnaktsutyun (7). The representatives of a brand new bloc, Yelk, (A Way Out), consisting of three newly founded parties, gained nine mandates. At the time, it seemed that precisely Yelk’s getting into the Parliament was a kind of surprise; however, nobody gave it any special importance. The victorious Republicans once again demonstrated generosity and, despite the absence of legal and political necessity, formed a majority coalition with Dashnaktsutyun. After a short timeout, elections for the Yerevan City Council took place in May in which only three entities participated – the Republican Party, the Yelk bloc and the Apricot Country party. Others boycotted the elections for various reasons. The Republicans took more than 70% of the votes (46 seats out of 65) and, according to the law, retained the Office of Mayor. Yelk won 21% of the votes (14 seats) while the apricot lovers – almost 8% (five mandates). 3 In a nutshell, as usual everything settled smoothly for the ruling power and the process of constitutional reform approached its logical end. However, at this juncture a brief historical detour is necessary in order to unveil some important circumstances. For the first time, Serzh Sargsyan became the President of Armenia after the February 2008 elections when he overcame the country’s first President, Levon Ter-Petrosyan, who returned to politics after a ten-year break. Those controversial elections triggered public unrest when Robert Kocharyan, who was still President-in-office at that time, made the decision to disperse protesters by force and introduced a state of emergency in the capital. Ten people were killed and 230 injured (including 30 policemen) on March 1 as a result of clashes between protesters and units of law enforcement agencies. Still, 40 days later the first presidential term of Serzh Sargsyan started. Precisely five years later (in February 2013), Serzh Sargsyan was reelected, this time – without any casualties and turmoil. Not wasting any time, he began to think about his future standing after the expiration of his second (and last) presidential term and took necessary steps to secure it. For this purpose, he initiated constitutional reform and thoroughly tailored the relevant process: first, he created a commission on constitutional amendments in September 2013 and then he approved amendments proposed by the commission in March 2015. Not surprisingly at all, the parliamentary majority supported the reform (in October) and the country’s population finally approved the new version through a referendum held in December. Legally, the change was about the transition from a presidential republic to a parliamentary one. However, in actuality, such a transformation would allow the farsighted Sargsyan to move legitimately and without any trouble from the weakened presidential chair into the Prime Minister’s empowered one after the presidential elections in the spring of 2018. Such a metamorphosis was expected to happen smoothly because both the President and the Prime Minister would have been elected by the Parliament where Sargsyan’s own party was controlling a comfortable majority (see above). 4 Serzh Sargsyan not only planned the constitutional process wisely Armen Sargsyan but also carefully selected his Armen Sargsyan was born in 1953. ceremonial successor (coincidently He graduated from Yerevan State with a surname similar to his University, Faculty of Theoretical own) to the President’s office. Physics and Mathematics. He was a The Armenian National Assembly lecturer in the same faculty in 1976- with a decisive majority – 90 1984. Afterwards, he worked in his profession at the Universities of votes against ten – elected Armen Cambridge and London. Sargsyan as the President of the Sargsyan was the Ambassador of country on March 2, 2018. Not Armenia to the UK in 1992-1995 and only the Author of this material 1998-2000. He was the Head of the (which he frankly stated above) Armenian Mission to the EU in 1995- but also no domestic or foreign 1996. From November 1996 until expert, observer, analyst, reporter, February 1997, he was the Prime political scientist or even a simple Minister of Armenia (During Levon mortal at that point would ever Ter-Petrosyan’s presidency). The real have thought that the votes cast reason for his rapid resignation is “against” by the leader of the Yelk unknown to date. He was replaced by faction – Nikol Pashinyan and his Robert Kocharyan. associates, were harbingers of the He established and led Eurasia House cataclysmic events that unfolded International in 2000. At various in a short while. times, he was consulting companies such as British Petroleum, Alcatel and It should be noted here that Telefonica. Pashinyan crusaded not so much For the third time he was appointed against Mr. Armen Sargsyan’s the Ambassador of Armenia to the UK presidency (maybe he was not in 2013. even against it at all) but rather against the prolongation of Mr. Serzh Sargsyan’s power. So, he decided to bring his own arguments to each compatriot directly and for that purpose walked across his country, village by village, talking, explaining and convincing. As the development of the events has shown, his method proved to be successful and on March 31, accompanied by a growing army of supporters, Pashinyan headed off towards Yerevan from Armenia’s second largest city, Gyumri. 5 His arrival in the capital was very timely indeed. On April 14, the Republican Party and the Dashnaks made public their (or whoever’s it was) not at all unexpected intention to propose Serzh Sargsyan’s candidacy for the post of Prime Minister (since September 2016, Karen Karapetyan was occupying the post). On April 16, he was officially nominated in the Parliament and on April 17 elected with 77 votes against 17. During these days, mass demonstrations erupted in Yerevan spearheaded by Nikol Pashinyan. The slogans were simple and negatively comprehensive: No to Sargsyan’s Premiership – No to Impotent Governance, No to Corruption, No to Poverty and Unemployment. On April 17, after Serzh Sargsyan’s appointment as Prime Minister, Pashinyan made everybody – friend and foe alike – aware about the launch of the Velvet Revolution (nationwide and peaceful). From April 20, people resorted to a blockade of Yerevan’s transportation system and even the active Defense Minister’s car (together with the Minister) found itself blockaded by angry citizens (however, the Minister was soon rescued by law enforcers). The President (correct – Armen Sargsyan) called upon the confronting parties to engage in a dialogue and, consequently, a meeting between Pashinyan and Sargsyan (Serzh) was held on April 22. However, Serzh in his formalwear and Nikol in his camouflage jacket failed to reach an understanding. The short-term result of this failure was the government’s belated attempt at repressions – Nikol Pashinyan and tens of protesters were detained which was followed by a tsunami of protests and the final demoralization of the governmental structures. “Nikol Pashinyan is right and I am wrong” – Serzh Sargsyan admitted and resigned on April 23. Detainees of the past few days were immediately released from their detention. The fight was not over but its fate was practically sealed. Symbolic blood was shed (Pashinyan, for example, cut his hand while trying to cross a barbed wire fence installed by police) but there were no victims. The transfer of power lasted for another two weeks. In the National Assembly, Gagik Tsarukyan, along with his colleagues from Prosperous Armenia, decided not to play on the nerves of the anxious population and provided complete support to the Yelk bloc and its leader.