Crossrail 2 NIC Supplementary Submission. Crossrail 2 NIC Supplementary Submission Version 1.1, 12 February 2016 Document reference: NIC2 1 Crossrail 2 NIC Supplementary Submission. Table of Contents 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 4 1.1 About this submission ...................................................................................... 4 1.2 Our ‘ask’ of the NIC .......................................................................................... 4 2 Supplement to the June 2015 Strategic Case ......................................................... 6 2.1 About this section ............................................................................................. 6 2.2 London’s agglomeration - driven economy, its transport network requirements and emerging constraints on growth ...................................................................... 7 2.3 Evidence that Crossrail 2 is the most effective scheme, and that it is needed by the early 2030s ................................................................................................ 24 2.4 Mitigating risks to the delivery of the economic uplift enabled by Crossrail 2 . 33 3 Funding ................................................................................................................. 37 3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 37 3.2 Executive Summary ....................................................................................... 38 3.3 Summary of the KPMG scoping exercise ....................................................... 41 3.4 Potential funding building blocks .................................................................... 49 3.5 Potential components of a revised funding plan ............................................. 54 4 Opportunities to reduce costs ................................................................................ 57 4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 57 4.2 The Full Regional Scheme ............................................................................. 57 4.3 Scope for Cost Reduction .............................................................................. 67 4.4 Phasing of construction .................................................................................. 67 4.5 South Western branches ................................................................................ 74 4.6 Stations and Route Variants .......................................................................... 78 Appendix A Programme ........................................................................................... 81 Appendix B – Strategic Goals and Objectives .......................................................... 83 Appendix C – London Underground Network Crowding, 2031 Baseline, peak direction only ............................................................................................................ 84 Appendix D – Summary capacity constraint typology .............................................. 86 2 Crossrail 2 NIC Supplementary Submission. Appendix E Illustration showing constraints at a typical Central London rail (National Rail or Underground) station .................................................................................... 87 Appendix F – “Peak Tube” ....................................................................................... 88 Appendix G : Impacts at Waterloo Station of an alternative capacity solution on the SWML to Crossrail 2 ................................................................................................ 91 Appendix H The impacts of Crossrail 2 on crowding across the London and South East Rail and Underground network ........................................................................ 93 Appendix I The evidence that transport investment supports growth ....................... 94 Appendix J – High Level Station Assessment .......................................................... 98 3 Crossrail 2 NIC Supplementary Submission. 1 Introduction 1.1 About this submission This document and its appendices form the second part of TfL’s submission to the National Infrastructure Commission (NIC) in response to its ‘Call for Evidence’. The first part covered London’s strategic challenges, the options and priorities for addressing them, and the experience of other cities (questions 1, 2 and 5), and was submitted on 14 January. The focus of this submission is Crossrail 2, building on the Strategic Outline Business Case (SOBC) submitted in June 2015. In particular, it responds to questions raised by the NIC on funding (covered in chapter 3 of this submission) and options to reduce costs and increase benefits (covered in chapter 4). Discussion with NIC commissioners and officers have also highlighted certain questions about the case for Crossrail 2 which this submission also seeks to address, as part of a broader restatement of the strategic case (chapter 2). The analysis in this paper presents a ‘snapshot’, undertaken in response to the NIC’s questions in the time available. It does not make formal recommendations, or constitute a update to the business case. TfL and Network Rail, as co-promoters of Crossrail 2, are currently undertaking a comprehensive programme of analysis and optimisation, including a systematic assessment of responses received as part of the recent public consultation. Designs continue to evolve as engineering and other constraints at each location are better understood. This will come together to inform selection of a Single Preferred Option in summer 2016, following which the Business Case will be updated, as set out in the programme contained in Appendix A. Any decisions to amend the scheme to save costs should be made only as part of that process, in the light of all the evidence, in order to ensure continuing public involvement in the scheme. We expect to continue to engage with the NIC on these issues over the coming months. 1.2 Our ‘ask’ of the NIC The SOBC made the case for £250 million of development funding needed to allow a hybrid bill to be submitted in late 2017 and Royal Assent to be secured by 2020. The Department for Transport (DfT) has since indicated that, due to the timing of the various hybrid bills required for HS2, a window exists in 2018 for a Crossrail 2 bill. If that opportunity is missed the next available date would be in the next Parliament, unless Government resource and parliamentary time can be found to pursue two bills in parallel. 4 Crossrail 2 NIC Supplementary Submission. A hybrid bill submission in 2018 would result in a Development Phase funding requirement of £188 million in this Parliament, rather than £250 million. Short of cancellation, maintaining the project in a state that would allow it to be developed through to powers in the next Parliament would require a team similar in size to today’s, at an estimated at c.£80million over this Parliament. The 2018 (rather than 2017) bill timetable would defer significant capital expenditure from the early 2020s (as considered in Figure 16 on page 63) and lead to railway services operating from 2031 rather than 2030. We are therefore asking the NIC to recommend that the Government: Commits in principle to a hybrid bill submission in 2018, noting that the programme in Appendix A provides a Review Point in March 2018 at which that commitment can be affirmed; and Commits to allocating sufficient funds for a hybrid bill process – an estimated £188 million in this Parliament. If insufficient parliamentary time or funding is made available, there is a significant risk of setting the project back by at least half a decade. This would result in a transport network that severely constrains London’s economic growth by the 2030s, and missed opportunities for increasing the city’s housing supply, as well as loss of potential for cost efficiency, through the transfer of knowledge and systems from Crossrail, which are likely to be lost in the event that the bill submission is delayed until the next Parliament. 5 Crossrail 2 NIC Supplementary Submission. 2 Supplement to the June 2015 Strategic Case 2.1 About this section The purpose of this section of the submission is to provide supplementary material to the Strategic Case submitted as part of the Strategic Outline Business Case (SOBC) in June 2015. There are three parts: (i) London’s agglomeration - driven economy, its transport network requirements and emerging constraints on growth This part reiterates the core purpose of the scheme and the importance of the wider economic rationale to the transport case. In particular it sets out the relationship between London’s rapidly growing ‘agglomeration economy’, the regional labour market and the transport system. It identifies a series of transport system constraints forecast to emerge as London grows, that will hinder and eventually reverse this process if not adequately addressed. (ii) Evidence that Crossrail 2 is the most effective scheme, and that it is needed by the early 2030s This part sets out the alternative options for addressing the constraints identified in part (i) and why Crossrail 2 is the most effective solution. It also provides evidence showing that it needs to be delivered in the early 2030s in order to avoid transport system constraints hindering agglomeration-driven growth, and the associated