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China Digital Consumer Trends in 2019

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China Digital Consumer Trends in 2019 China digital consumer trends 2019 Discovering the next wave of growth Authors: Lambert Bu, Shenzhen Jacob Wang, Shanghai Kevin Wei Wang, Hong Kong Daniel Zipser, Shenzhen September 2019 Copyright © McKinsey & Company 2019 China digital consumer trends 2019 Discovering the next wave of growth China’s rise as a global leader in ecommerce has China’s 855 million digital consumers - among been nothing less than stunning. This year, online some of the most avid users of mobile phones and retail sales are expected to swell to $1.5 trillion, social media in the world - represent one of the representing a quarter of China’s total retail biggest prizes for global marketers. sales volume, and more than the retail sales of the ten next largest markets in the world – combined. (Exhibit 1) Exhibit 1 Online retail transaction value Online retail transaction value (2019 forecast1) 2019 forecast1 2017-19 CAGR % % of total retail value in USD Russia $135 Bn $30 Bn Canada $55 Bn 14% 22% 24% 5% 26% 11% United Korea $90 Bn Kingdom 22% 22% China’s online China USA retail market is $600 Bn Germany ~$1.5 Tn France Japan 15% 11% larger than the $80 Bn $65 Bn 24% 25% next 10 markets 9% 9% $115 Bn 15% 10% combined India 5% 9% Brazil $40 Bn $30 Bn 36% 3% Indonesia $15 Bn 13% 4% 36% 4% Argentina $7 Bn 21% 3% 1. Online B2C and C2C market; Forecast for year-end 2019 SOURCE: iResearch and MOFCOM for China; eMarketer; McKinsey China Digital Consumer Trends 2019 But things are getting a lot tougher: Growth of And an increasingly crowded marketplace has led online retail sales is cooling, dipping from the to fierce competition between brands, pushing up heady 40 and 50 percent annual rates seen in the the cost of acquiring new customers and retaining early part of the decade to 25 percent compound them. For example, the CPM (cost per 1,000 annual growth in the past few years. (Exhibit 2) consumer impressions) of advertisements placed on Tmall’s baby channel has increased on average by 60 percent since 2017. Discovering the next wave of growth 1 Exhibit 2 EE-commerce-oee gross oss merchandizing ehaniin volume (GMV) ole growth oh % yearyear-on-year-on-year 134% 47% India 31% China 27% US 15% 14% 2014 15 16 17 2018 SOURCE: McKinsey China Digital Consumer Trends 2019; eMarketer These and other challenges –like the rising are there other ways to leverage these events sophistication of Chinese consumers–are upping beyond slashing prices? the ante for consumer-facing companies. Brands In an effort to find answers to these questions, looking for the next wave of digitally-fueled McKinsey surveyed over 4,300 digital consumers growth in China are grappling with a number of from across four city tiers and rural areas in China, thorny questions: and from a range of ages and income levels. To Omnichannel shopping: Looking beyond the better understand their digital behavior, we asked hype, are initiatives like omnichannel retail them questions about their digital activities, how services really taking off in China, and where they allocate their spending, and their purchasing should we place our bets to capture a return on decision journeys. our investment? We complemented this field research with Social media and commerce: China is the land category specific expert interviews, as well as of social media, and some brands are already insights drawn from our experience working monetizing the attention they are generating with some of China’s most innovative and fastest- through social channels. How can we tap into the growing domestic and multinational consumer- trend? How can we start building relationships facing companies. In this report, we explore directly with consumers that enable us to collect five major areas of opportunity for consumer- more granular and actionable data on them? facing marketers: Lower-tier cities: Most marketers have focused 1. Digitally-powered physical retail innovation: their attention on capturing consumers in high-tier Crafting an intentional strategy to tap into cities. But with more than 50 percent of digital omnichannel behavior. consumers residing in lower tier cities, how can we 2. Social commerce: Monetizing social craft a value proposition that appeals to them? attention and engaging with consumers Key Opinion Leaders/Consumers (KOLs/ through direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels. KOCs): KOLs/KOCs wield a lot of influence, but 3. Small town youth: Identifying the next how should we tailor our strategy to drive short- pocket of customer growth. term sales while building the brand? 4. KOLs / KOCs: Fine-tuning the levers of Shopping events and discounts: The major consumer influence. annual and semi-annual shopping events like Double 11 and 618 are playing an increasingly 5. Sales events and discounts: Data-enabled important role in driving sales. But what impact pricing and promotions. are these events having on our profitability, and 2 China digital consumer trends 2019 Digitally-powered physical retail innovation Crafting an intentional strategy to tap into omni-channel behavior In 2014, online retail sales in China were growing For example, 88 percent of online apparel so fast they started to eat into the sales of consumers said they had shopped in physical traditional physical channels. Brands started to stores in the past 3 months, compared to shutter stores, as customers flocked to digital 83 percent in 2017. (Exhibit 3) channels. But since 2017, Chinese shoppers have made a noticeable shift back to physical stores, especially shopping malls and mono-brand retail stores. According to our survey, young consumers in tier 1 and 2 cities are leading the trend. Discovering the next wave of growth 3 Exhibit 3 DiialDigital consumer onse shopping shoin behavior ehaio across physical aoss channels hsial hannels # of shopping malls % of digital apparel consumers who shopped in a physical channel in the past 3 months1 +11% ea-on-ea oh 88% 83% 5,666 5,133 4,629 2017 2019 Le on onses eas old) in 2016 17 2018 ie - iies SOURCE: iConsumer 2016 and 2017; McKinsey China Digital Consumer Trends 2019; Winshang McKinsey & Company 3 Sales figures support these findings. While overall Meanwhile, consumers continue to blur the sales in physical retail channels carrying multiple boundaries between online and physical channels. brands like department stores continued to lose For apparel, China’s largest e-commerce category, share to online channels, mono-brand stores in 85 percent of shoppers now engage with both China enjoyed a sizable uptick in sales, rising from online and offline touchpoints, rising from just 2 percent year-on-year growth in 2016 to 80 percent in 2017. (Exhibit 4) 8.3 percent in 2017. Exhibit 4 niOmni-channel-channel influence inlence on purchasing on urchasin decisions eisions Percentage of apparelof apparel shoppers shoppers who engage who withengage both online with bothand offline online touchpoints and offline touchpoints Consumer decision journeys Online only 12% 8% Purely online Shopped online at least once Touch-and-feel offline, purchase 4% 61% during last 3 online months Online + Offline 69% 85% 49% Truly omni-channel 32% Evaluate online, purchase offline 39% Offline only 8% Did not shop online during No evaluation 12% last 3 months 7% Purely offline Evaluation channel Purchase channel SOURCE: McKinsey China Digital Consumer Trends 2019 4 China digital consumer trends 2019 The in-store experience is key to the revival If brands are worried about losing these of physical retail. Despite the convenience of information-hungry, mobile-savvy customers shopping online, some of the most fundamental to competitors, another finding from our survey needs consumers have can only be fulfilled by might help to allay those fears. With the right visiting a store. Seeing and feeling products in-store experience, 80 percent of consumers firsthand; trying on and testing products; watching who use their mobile phones in the store to product demonstrations; and the immediate research products end up buying products of the accessibility of products in the store: These are same brand, and more than 50 percent will even what distinguish physical shopping experiences buy in the stores they visit as a showroom. from online ones. (Exhibit 5) And increasingly, Chinese consumers are combining their experience shopping at physical retail stores with their online buying decisions. The proportion of consumers saying they use their mobile phones to research products while shopping in a store, what is often referred to as the “showroom effect,” has more than doubled to 63 percent in just the past two years. Exhibit 5 Omni-channel presence in the “showroom effect” Shoppers who conduct Impact on final purchasing decisions Top 5 reasons for conducting mobile research in a Percent of online apparel shoppers who research in-store mobile research physical store online in physical stores Percent of online apparel shoppers Impact Purchase decisions Learn more about product details 63 Buy in this 55 store Check price Sales maintained within brand Buy from another 17 81% store Check comments 31 Buy online 28 Buy another 16 Check popularity (sales volume) Potential sales brand leakage to other brands Buy a different 3 19% product Check for more convenient purchase method 2017 2019 SOURCE: McKinsey China Digital Consumer Trends 2019 Discovering the next wave of growth 5 The revival of physical stores is fueling another initiatives has exploded, with the share of survey exciting trend with the potential to entirely respondents saying they have experienced such reshape
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