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Program At-A-Glance
Sunday, 29 September 2019 Dinner (6:30–8:00 PM) ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ Monday, 30 September 2019 Breakfast (7:00–8:00 AM) Session 1: Extratropical Cyclone Structure and Dynamics: Part I (8:00–10:00 AM) Chair: Michael Riemer Time Author(s) Title 8:00–8:40 Spengler 100th Anniversary of the Bergen School of Meteorology Paper Raveh-Rubin 8:40–9:00 Climatology and Dynamics of the Link Between Dry Intrusions and Cold Fronts and Catto Tochimoto 9:00–9:20 Structures of Extratropical Cyclones Developing in Pacific Storm Track and Niino 9:20–9:40 Sinclair and Dacre Poleward Moisture Transport by Extratropical Cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere 9:40–10:00 Discussion Break (10:00–10:30 AM) Session 2: Jet Dynamics and Diagnostics (10:30 AM–12:10 PM) Chair: Victoria Sinclair Time Author(s) Title Breeden 10:30–10:50 Evidence for Nonlinear Processes in Fostering a North Pacific Jet Retraction and Martin Finocchio How the Jet Stream Controls the Downstream Response to Recurving 10:50–11:10 and Doyle Tropical Cyclones: Insights from Idealized Simulations 11:10–11:30 Madsen and Martin Exploring Characteristic Intraseasonal Transitions of the Wintertime Pacific Jet Stream The Role of Subsidence during the Development of North American 11:30–11:50 Winters et al. Polar/Subtropical Jet Superpositions 11:50–12:10 Discussion Lunch (12:10–1:10 PM) Session 3: Rossby Waves (1:10–3:10 PM) Chair: Annika Oertel Time Author(s) Title Recurrent Synoptic-Scale Rossby Wave Patterns and Their Effect on the Persistence of 1:10–1:30 Röthlisberger et al. -
Ex-Hurricane Ophelia 16 October 2017
Ex-Hurricane Ophelia 16 October 2017 On 16 October 2017 ex-hurricane Ophelia brought very strong winds to western parts of the UK and Ireland. This date fell on the exact 30th anniversary of the Great Storm of 16 October 1987. Ex-hurricane Ophelia (named by the US National Hurricane Center) was the second storm of the 2017-2018 winter season, following Storm Aileen on 12 to 13 September. The strongest winds were around Irish Sea coasts, particularly west Wales, with gusts of 60 to 70 Kt or higher in exposed coastal locations. Impacts The most severe impacts were across the Republic of Ireland, where three people died from falling trees (still mostly in full leaf at this time of year). There was also significant disruption across western parts of the UK, with power cuts affecting thousands of homes and businesses in Wales and Northern Ireland, and damage reported to a stadium roof in Barrow, Cumbria. Flights from Manchester and Edinburgh to the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland were cancelled, and in Wales some roads and railway lines were closed. Ferry services between Wales and Ireland were also disrupted. Storm Ophelia brought heavy rain and very mild temperatures caused by a southerly airflow drawing air from the Iberian Peninsula. Weather data Ex-hurricane Ophelia moved on a northerly track to the west of Spain and then north along the west coast of Ireland, before sweeping north-eastwards across Scotland. The sequence of analysis charts from 12 UTC 15 to 12 UTC 17 October shows Ophelia approaching and tracking across Ireland and Scotland. -
The Effects of Diabatic Heating on Upper
THE EFFECTS OF DIABATIC HEATING ON UPPER- TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLOGENESIS by Ross A. Lazear A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science (Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences) at the UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN - MADISON 2007 i Abstract The role of diabatic heating in the development and maintenance of persistent, upper- tropospheric, large-scale anticyclonic anomalies in the subtropics (subtropical gyres) and middle latitudes (blocking highs) is investigated from the perspective of potential vorticity (PV) non-conservation. The low PV within blocking anticyclones is related to condensational heating within strengthening upstream synoptic-scale systems. Additionally, the associated convective outflow from tropical cyclones (TCs) is shown to build upper- tropospheric, subtropical anticyclones. Not only do both of these large-scale flow phenomena have an impact on the structure and dynamics of neighboring weather systems, and consequently the day-to-day weather, the very persistence of these anticyclones means that they have a profound influence on the seasonal climate of the regions in which they exist. A blocking index based on the meridional reversal of potential temperature on the dynamic tropopause is used to identify cases of wintertime blocking in the North Atlantic from 2000-2007. Two specific cases of blocking are analyzed, one event from February 1983, and another identified using the index, from January 2007. Parallel numerical simulations of these blocking events, differing only in one simulation’s neglect of the effects of latent heating of condensation (a “fake dry” run), illustrate the importance of latent heating in the amplification and wave-breaking of both blocking events. -
As Diagnosed with a Generalized Omega Equation and Vorticity Equation
Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography ISSN: (Print) 1600-0870 (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/zela20 The extratropical transition of Hurricane Ophelia (2017) as diagnosed with a generalized omega equation and vorticity equation Mika Rantanen, Jouni Räisänen, Victoria A. Sinclair, Juha Lento & Heikki Järvinen To cite this article: Mika Rantanen, Jouni Räisänen, Victoria A. Sinclair, Juha Lento & Heikki Järvinen (2020) The extratropical transition of Hurricane Ophelia (2017) as diagnosed with a generalized omega equation and vorticity equation, Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 72:1, 1-26, DOI: 10.1080/16000870.2020.1721215 To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1721215 Tellus A: 2020. © 2020 The Author(s). View supplementary material Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. Published online: 03 Feb 2020. Submit your article to this journal Article views: 504 View related articles View Crossmark data Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at https://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=zela20 SERIES A DYANAMIC METEOROLOGY Tellus AND OCEANOGRAPHY PUBLISHED BY THE INTERNATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE IN STOCKHOLM The extratropical transition of Hurricane Ophelia (2017) as diagnosed with a generalized omega equation and vorticity equation 1Ã 1 1 2 By MIKA RANTANEN , JOUNI RÄISÄNEN , VICTORIA A. SINCLAIR , JUHA LENTO , and HEIKKI JÄRVINEN1, 1Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research/Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland; 2CSC–IT Center for Science, Espoo, Finland (Manuscript Received 14 June 2019; in final form 20 November 2019) ABSTRACT Hurricane Ophelia was a category 3 hurricane which underwent extratropical transition and made landfall in Europe as an exceptionally strong post-tropical cyclone in October 2017. -
The Extratropical Transition of Hurricane Ophelia (2017) As Diagnosed with a Generalized Omega Equation and Vorticity Equation
The extratropical transition of Hurricane Ophelia (2017) as diagnosed with a generalized omega equation and vorticity equation 1 1 1 1 Mika Rantanen , Jouni Räisänen , Victoria A. Sinclair and Heikki Järvinen 1 I nstitute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland Hurricane Ophelia was a category 3 hurricane which underwent an extratropical transition and made landfall in Europe as an exceptionally strong post-tropical cyclone in October 2017. In Ireland, for instance, Ophelia was the worst storm in 50 years and resulted in significant damage and loss of life. In this study, the different physical processes affecting Ophelia’s transformation from a hurricane to a mid-latitude cyclone are studied. For this purpose, we have developed software which uses OpenIFS model output and a system consisting of a generalized omega equation and vorticity equation. By using these two equations, the atmospheric vertical motion and vorticity tendency are separated into the contributions from different physical processes: vorticity advection, thermal advection, friction, diabatic heating, and the imbalance between the temperature and vorticity tendencies. Vorticity advection, which is often considered an important forcing for the development of mid-latitude cyclones, is shown to play a small role in the re-intensification of Ophelia as an extratropical storm. This is because the effects of divergent and non-divergent components of vorticity advection mainly cancelled each other out, resulting in a net effect close to zero. However, our results show that diabatic heating was the dominate forcing in both the tropical and extratropical phases of Ophelia. Furthermore, we calculated in more detail the diabatic heating contributions from different model parameterizations. -
A Classification Scheme for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones
A CLASSIFICATION SCHEME FOR LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES BASED ON PRECIPITATION VARIABLES DERIVED FROM GIS AND GROUND RADAR ANALYSIS by IAN J. COMSTOCK JASON C. SENKBEIL, COMMITTEE CHAIR DAVID M. BROMMER JOE WEBER P. GRADY DIXON A THESIS Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree Master of Science in the Department of Geography in the graduate school of The University of Alabama TUSCALOOSA, ALABAMA 2011 Copyright Ian J. Comstock 2011 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED ABSTRACT Landfalling tropical cyclones present a multitude of hazards that threaten life and property to coastal and inland communities. These hazards are most commonly categorized by the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Potential Disaster Scale. Currently, there is not a system or scale that categorizes tropical cyclones by precipitation and flooding, which is the primary cause of fatalities and property damage from landfalling tropical cyclones. This research compiles ground based radar data (Nexrad Level-III) in the U.S. and analyzes tropical cyclone precipitation data in a GIS platform. Twenty-six landfalling tropical cyclones from 1995 to 2008 are included in this research where they were classified using Cluster Analysis. Precipitation and storm variables used in classification include: rain shield area, convective precipitation area, rain shield decay, and storm forward speed. Results indicate six distinct groups of tropical cyclones based on these variables. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank the faculty members I have been working with over the last year and a half on this project. I was able to present different aspects of this thesis at various conferences and for this I would like to thank Jason Senkbeil for keeping me ambitious and for his patience through the many hours spent deliberating over the enormous amounts of data generated from this research. -
Historical Perspective
kZ _!% L , Ti Historical Perspective 2.1 Introduction CROSS REFERENCE Through the years, FEMA, other Federal agencies, State and For resources that augment local agencies, and other private groups have documented and the guidance and other evaluated the effects of coastal flood and wind events and the information in this Manual, performance of buildings located in coastal areas during those see the Residential Coastal Construction Web site events. These evaluations provide a historical perspective on the siting, design, and construction of buildings along the Atlantic, Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, and Great Lakes coasts. These studies provide a baseline against which the effects of later coastal flood events can be measured. Within this context, certain hurricanes, coastal storms, and other coastal flood events stand out as being especially important, either Hurricane categories reported because of the nature and extent of the damage they caused or in this Manual should be because of particular flaws they exposed in hazard identification, interpreted cautiously. Storm siting, design, construction, or maintenance practices. Many of categorization based on wind speed may differ from that these events—particularly those occurring since 1979—have been based on barometric pressure documented by FEMA in Flood Damage Assessment Reports, or storm surge. Also, storm Building Performance Assessment Team (BPAT) reports, and effects vary geographically— Mitigation Assessment Team (MAT) reports. These reports only the area near the point of summarize investigations that FEMA conducts shortly after landfall will experience effects associated with the reported major disasters. Drawing on the combined resources of a Federal, storm category. State, local, and private sector partnership, a team of investigators COASTAL CONSTRUCTION MANUAL 2-1 2 HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE is tasked with evaluating the performance of buildings and related infrastructure in response to the effects of natural and man-made hazards. -
Notable Tropical Cyclones and Unusual Areas of Tropical Cyclone Formation
A flood is an overflow of an expanse of water that submerges land.[1] The EU Floods directive defines a flood as a temporary covering by water of land not normally covered by water.[2] In the sense of "flowing water", the word may also be applied to the inflow of the tide. Flooding may result from the volume of water within a body of water, such as a river or lake, which overflows or breaks levees, with the result that some of the water escapes its usual boundaries.[3] While the size of a lake or other body of water will vary with seasonal changes in precipitation and snow melt, it is not a significant flood unless such escapes of water endanger land areas used by man like a village, city or other inhabited area. Floods can also occur in rivers, when flow exceeds the capacity of the river channel, particularly at bends or meanders. Floods often cause damage to homes and businesses if they are placed in natural flood plains of rivers. While flood damage can be virtually eliminated by moving away from rivers and other bodies of water, since time out of mind, people have lived and worked by the water to seek sustenance and capitalize on the gains of cheap and easy travel and commerce by being near water. That humans continue to inhabit areas threatened by flood damage is evidence that the perceived value of living near the water exceeds the cost of repeated periodic flooding. The word "flood" comes from the Old English flod, a word common to Germanic languages (compare German Flut, Dutch vloed from the same root as is seen in flow, float; also compare with Latin fluctus, flumen). -
Severe Weather Planning Guidance for HSE Services
Severe Weather Planning Guidance for HSE Services This Guide was updated by the HSE Emergency Management Office HSE National Emergency Management Office Stewarts Care Limited, Stewarts Hospital, Mill Lane, Dublin 20, D20 XT80 Version Version 2 Date October 2019 Review date September 2020 Foreword As has been evidenced in recent years Severe Weather can have a significant impact on HSE service provision. The Government “Be Winter-Ready Information Campaign” provides advice and information to help the public to be better prepared to deal with a period of Severe Weather. The Office of Emergency Planning has prepared a booklet “Be Winter-Ready” and developed a website www.winterready.ie to provide practical advice and contact details of the main services that can provide help in extreme weather-related emergencies. This initiative brings together all the relevant services to provide practical advice to the public. As HSE managers it behooves us to increase the resilience of all key services and mitigate the impact that Severe Weather may have on the day to day running of the HSE. We must keep in mind that Severe Weather will not just impact HSE services; it will impact on other associated businesses those providing service support and those in our supply chain, in Ireland and globally. Therefore we must prepare our services and personnel and undertake detailed contingency planning. To assist managers conduct this Severe Weather planning we have developed a Severe Weather checklist and associated guidance for managers. This new format is flexible and has the adaptability to cater for the diverse range of HSE services and facilities. -
A Complex Aerosol Transport Event Over Europe During
A complex aerosol transport event over Europe during the 2017 Storm Ophelia in CAMS forecast systems: analysis and evaluation Dimitris Akritidis1, Eleni Katragkou1, Aristeidis K. Georgoulias1, Prodromos Zanis1, Stergios Kartsios1, Johannes Flemming2, Antje Inness2, John Douros3, and Henk Eskes3 1Department of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece 2European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, UK 3Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands Correspondence: D. Akritidis ([email protected]) Abstract. In mid-October 2017 Storm Ophelia crossed over western coastal Europe, inducing the combined transport of Sa- haran dust and Iberian biomass burning aerosols over several European areas. In this study we assess the performance of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) forecast systems during this complex aerosol transport event, and the po- tential benefits that data assimilation and regional models could bring. To this end, CAMS global and regional forecast data are 5 analyzed and compared against observations from passive (MODIS: Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer aboard Terra and Aqua) and active (CALIOP/CALIPSO: Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization aboard Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) satellite sensors, and ground-based measurements (EMEP: European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme). The analysis of CAMS global forecast indicates that dust and smoke aerosols, dis- cretely located on the warm and cold front of Ophelia, respectively, are affecting the aerosol atmospheric composition over 10 Europe during the passage of the Storm. The observed MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) values are satisfactorily repro- duced by CAMS global forecast system, with a correlation coefficient of 0.77 and a fractional gross error (FGE) of 0.4. -
2014 National Survey Identifies Top Hurricane Myths
2014 NATIONAL SURVEY IDENTIFIES TOP HURRICANE MYTHS A survey commissioned by the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes (FLASH)® by Harris Interactive from March 3 - 5 found that three myths about hurricane preparedness and mitigation persist among those most at-risk for storms. Click here for full survey results. MYTH: I need to evacuate based on the strength/wind speed of a hurricane. FINDING: 84% incorrectly believe evacuations are based on hurricane wind speed. FACT: Hurricane evacuation zones are defined by the threat of storm surge and inland flooding rather than wind speed or hurricane category because storm surge is the greatest threat to life and property. ACTION: Find out today if you live in a hurricane evacuation zone by contacting your local officials or visiting www.flash.org/hurricane-season. Always plan and stay alert for evacuation orders throughout hurricane season and heed the orders when issued. BACKGROUND: Storm surge is a large volume of water pushed ashore by winds associated with the storm. Storm surge can cause flood water levels to rise quickly and flood large areas – sometimes in just minutes, posing a significant threat for drowning. Evacuation zones are based on hurricane storm surge zones determined by the National Hurricane Center using ground elevation and an area’s vulnerability to storm surge. "Most people think of wind with a hurricane, but in recent years, water from storm surge and inland flooding has done the most damage and killed the most people," said Rick Knabb, Ph.D., Director of NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NHC). “Families need to find out if they live in an evacuation zone today, have a plan in a place and immediately follow evacuation orders when issued.” Despite what many believe, tropical storms, Category 1 and 2 hurricanes, post-tropical cyclones and even Nor’easters can all cause life-threatening storm surge. -
Convective-Scale Downdrafts in the Principal Rainband of Hurricane Katrina (2005)
Convective-scale Downdrafts in the Principal Rainband of Hurricane Katrina (2005) Anthony Carl Didlake, Jr. A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science University of Washington 2009 Program Authorized to Offer Degree: Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington Graduate School This is to certify that I have examined this copy of a master’s thesis by Anthony Carl Didlake, Jr. and have found that it is complete and satisfactory in all respects, and that any and all revisions required by the final examining committee have been made. Committee Members: ______________________________________________________________________ Robert A. Houze, Jr. ______________________________________________________________________ Clifford F. Mass ______________________________________________________________________ John M. Wallace Date: ____________________________________________ In presenting this thesis in partial fulfillment of the requirements for a master’s degree at the University of Washington, I agree that the Library shall make its copies freely available for inspection. I further agree that extensive copying of this thesis is allowable only for scholarly purposes, consistent with “fair use” as prescribed in the U.S. Copyright Law. Any other reproduction for any purposes or by any means shall not be allowed without my written permission. Signature _________________________________ Date _____________________________________ University of Washington Abstract Convective-scale Downdrafts in the Principal Rainband of Hurricane Katrina (2005) Anthony Carl Didlake, Jr. Chair of the Supervisory Committee: Professor Robert A. Houze, Jr. Department of Atmospheric Sciences Airborne Doppler radar data collected during the Hurricane Rainband and Intensity Change Experiment (RAINEX) document downdrafts in the principal rainband of Hurricane Katrina (2005). Inner-edge downdrafts (IEDs) originating at 6-8 km altitude created a sharp reflectivity gradient along the inner boundary of the rainband.