Preliminary Electoral Rolls 2012 ACCURATE BUT INCOMPLETE An Assessment of Voter Lists Displayed for Public Scrutiny in March 2012 13% Voters not Verified in Areas of their Residence 20 Million Potentially Missing on Rolls ir Electio a n F N & e t w e e o r r k F FAFEN Free and Fair Election Network www.fafen.org Free and Fair Election Network Preliminary Electoral Rolls 2012: Accurate But Incomplete All rights reserved. Any part of this publication may be produced or translated by duly acknowledging the source. 1st Edition: June 2012. Copies 2,500 FAFEN is governed by the Trust for Democratic Education and Accountability (TDEA) TDEA-FAFEN Secretariat: 224-Margalla Road, F-10/3, Islamabad, Pakistan Email: [email protected] Website: www.fafen.org Twitter: @_FAFEN Table of Contents Acknowledgments i Abbreviations ii Executive Summary 2 Background 6 Methodology of Assessment of PER 2012 8 Key Findings 10 1. One in every eight voters not verified at his/her address given in PER 2012 10 2. Families of almost two thirds of unverified voters also not found on addresses given in PER 2012 10 3. More women than men voters not verified at residential addresses 11 4. One fifth of adult population potentially not registered as voters 11 5. Negligible number of voters misallocated 12 6. Voter entries on PER 2012 highly accurate 14 7. Quality of Display Period 15 7.1 Voter accessibility to display centers 15 7.2 Facilitation of voters at display centers 16 7.3 Materials available at display centers 17 7.4 Participation of women voters 18 7.5 Participation of political parties 18 7.6 Corrective measures by ECP 19 7.7 Claims filed at display centers 19 Annexes 21 Annexure 1: Population estimates (Economic Survey of Pakistan 2011-12) 23 Annexure 2: Questionnaires and Checklists used in the Assessment 24 Annexure 3: List of display centers visited for List-to-Voter Assessment 28 Annexure 4: List of localities visited for People-to-List Assessment 42 Annexure 5: District-wise number of display centers visited by FAFEN observers for observation of Display Period processes 51 Acknowledgements The Free and Fair Election Network (FAFEN) wishes to acknowledge with appreciation the hard-working FAFEN monitors and their supervisors for implementing this assessment during the Display Period for Preliminary Electoral Rolls 2012 between February 29 and March 20, 2012. Many personnel at the FAFEN Secretariat also deserve commendation for their essential contributions to the design of this assessment as well as the data cleaning and analysis. FAFEN thanks the Election Commission of Pakistan for encouraging and facilitating this assessment. In particular, FAFEN wishes to express appreciation for the District Election Commissioners and Display Center In- charge Officers in the display centers around the country who cooperated with our efforts. Finally, FAFEN acknowledges the financial support of the Department for International Development (DFID) and Embassy of the Kingdom of Netherlands through The Asia Foundation (TAF) for all of FAFEN's governance programming, of which this assessment is a part. Board of Trustees i Abbreviations CNIC Computerized National Identity Card DCIO Display Center In-charge Officer DER Draft Electoral Rolls DFID Department for International Development ECP Election Commission of Pakistan FAFEN Free and Fair Election Network FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas FER Final Electoral Rolls ICT Islamabad Capital Territory KP Khyber Pakhtunkhwa MoE Margin of Error NADRA National Database and Registration Authority PCO Pakistan Census Organization PER Preliminary Electoral Rolls TAF The Asia Foundation UKaid United Kingdom Agency for International Development ii Executive Summary The five-year term of the National Assembly of Pakistan comes to an end on March 17, 2013. As part of its preparations for the forthcoming general elections, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has finalized Electoral Rolls in July 2012. The new rolls replaced the previous Finalized Electoral Rolls 2007 (FER 2007) used in the general elections of 2008. The new electoral rolls have been necessitated as part of the ECP’s efforts to improve the quality of future elections, which included a legal amendment to make CNICs mandatory for voter registration. The ECP adopted rigorous and methodical processes in the preparation of new rolls, including eliciting the services of NADRA. The rolls were finalized after their public scrutiny managed by the ECP between February 29 and March 20, 2012. Eligible voters were thus provided a valuable opportunity at 55,000 display centers set up across country to confirm their registration status and to request corrections to erroneous identification details on the Preliminary Electoral Rolls 2012. In an effort to independently verify the accuracy and completeness of PER 2012, FAFEN undertook a study encompassing three separate assessments – List-to-Voter, People-to-List and Display Period Process Assessment. The study was carried out in systematically sampled locations and display centers across the country by a total of 1,916 trained FAFEN observers. The objectives of the study were to assess: 1. The extent to which individuals listed in PER 2012 are registered in the polling areas of their residence (where they will go to cast ballots on Election Day) 2. The correctness of voters' other data in PER 2012 3. The extent to which eligible voters are not yet registered in PER 2012 4. The quality of the processes at display centers during the public scrutiny of PER 2012 Methodology of Assessment The List-to-Voter Assessment, which is focused primarily on the accuracy of the voters list, verified a statistical sample of names taken from the electoral roll by visiting the addresses listed and interviewing those registered voters. The List-to-Voter Assessment was conducted in 2,134 sampled locations in four provinces, Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The sample size included 20,068 voters listed on PER 2012 – 9,850 women and 10,218 men. Standardized checklists were employed to record each selected voter's Voter Number, Household Number, Name, CNIC Number and Address extracted from the electoral roll. The presence of each voter was verified at his/her listed address in addition to confirming other vital identification details. The People-to-List Assessment, which is focused primarily on the completeness of the voters list, was conducted in 2,114 sampled locations in four provinces, ICT and FATA. Ten households were randomly selected in each of the sampled locations and one eligible voter was interviewed at each household, producing a sample size of 19,278 respondents – 9,141 females and 10,137 males. Trained FAFEN staff filled standardized checklists with the Name, CNIC Number and Address of each interviewed individual and then verified their registration status and accuracy of identifying details against the designated electoral roll of each respective area. The Display Period Process Assessment was conducted at 6,557 Display Centers in 1,196 sampled Union Councils in four provinces and in ICT and FATA. FAFEN observed the quality of display period processes administered by the ECP in order to analyze their fairness, neutrality and transparency against the ECP's Manual of Instructions provided to the officials assigned for display center management. Free and Fair Election Network 2 www.fafen.org Summary of Key Findings 1. List-to-Voter Assessment Ÿ One in every eight registered voters (13%) could not be confirmed to be residing at the address listed in PER 2012. Ÿ Of voters not verified of their addresses, more than one-half of their families (58%) were not found to be residing at the addresses given in PER 2012. In other words, every eligible member of these families may be registered to vote in the wrong location (with the wrong address). Ÿ Slightly more female voters than male voters are not verified of the addresses. Nationwide, 14% of registered women voters were not found to be living at their given addresses, while the same was true for 12% of male registered voters. Ÿ The names of voters on the electoral rolls were found to be accurate in 99% of cases. Ÿ The CNIC numbers checked on PER 2012 also were accurate in 99% of cases. 2. People-to-List Assessment Ÿ About 3.4% of eligible voters who have CNICs are not registered in PER 2012, which means that almost 3.6 million CNIC holders may have been erroneously left off the voters' list, while 20 million adults of voting age may be missing on the rolls altogether. The highest incidence of under-registration of eligible voters with CNICs was documented in Sindh. Nationwide, 3.5% of the unregistered eligible voters are female, while 3.4% are male, with higher rates of disparity in ICT, FATA and Balochistan. Ÿ About 1% of verified voters are registered in areas where they do not reside. Most misallocations were found in ICT and Balochistan. Approximately 0.4% of verified voters were found to be misallocated to electoral areas within the same province/region, while about 0.3% were misallocated to electoral areas in other provinces/regions. Ÿ Approximately 20% of registered voters' names were not fully accurate when checked against the voters' list. The names of 37% of registered voters were not accurate on the lists in Balochistan, while in Sindh the names of 25% of voters could not be verified in full. However, these discrepancies may have been due to hand-written errors in transcription of names. Ÿ The CNIC numbers of 99% of the voters listed by observers at selected households were observed to be correct in the lists. 3. Display Period Process Assessment 3.1 Voter accessibility to Display Centers Ÿ The vast majority of display centers (94%) established by the ECP were in locations that were easily accessible to the public.