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Kazakhstan: PPP Opportunities in a Young Country

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Kazakhstan: PPP Opportunities in a Young Country Kazakhstan: PPP Opportunities in a Young Country THE CHALLENGE IS AROUND THE CORNER 30th of June 2008 This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by Chemonics International Inc. Contract No. AFP-I-00-03-00035-00 Task Order#1 The author’s views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. CONTENTS Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................ 1 Section I: Investment Climate ............................................................................................................................ 2 Section II: Kazakhstan’s Experience in PPP Projects .................................................................................... 9 Section III: Law Amendments and New PPP Program in Kazakhstan .................................................... 12 Section IV: Recommendations ......................................................................................................................... 21 Annexes Annex A ............................................................................................................................................... 29 Annex B ............................................................................................................................................... 31 Annex C ............................................................................................................................................... 33 KAZAKHSTAN: PPP OPPORTUNITIES IN A YOUNG COUNTRY iii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Several years ago, Kazakhstan started a few public-private partnership (PPP) initiatives, particularly in the transport sector (specifically with railway projects). These initial projects were designed during two periods, one before the Law on Concessions was passed in 2006 and one after this important milestone.1 The principal characteristics of these projects were that once the concessionaire was selected, a public company (Kazyna or Samruk) could participate in the special purpose vehicle to facilitate the financial feasibility of the concession. At the same time, the debt instruments were guaranteed by the government to encourage the participation of the pension funds in the system. Currently, the government is working on several proposals to update the Law on Concessions with the objective of facilitating the participation of private companies and increasing competition for the projects. The principal mechanism it is considering to accomplish these goals is co-funding the project and also backing the projects with guarantees. Currently the law enables the government to provide to the concessionaire guarantees for infrastructural bonds within the limits of concession agreements, guarantees for loans attracted to finance concession projects; the transfer of exclusive rights related to running a concession object; and the provision of grants in kind in line with Republic of Kazakhstan legislation. With the proposed changes in the law, the government can include co-financing of concession projects, compensation for certain amount of investment costs of the concessionaire, and guarantees of consumption by the Government of certain amount of goods (works, services). Another important set of proposals would protect users from being subject to double tariffs from the concessionaire as well as the public sector. Another important change is the formal creation of a PPP unit that will dictate guidelines for each project and will orient every institution responsible for PPP projects in each step of the PPP process. In this report, we describe the experience with PPPs in Kazakhstan and analyze the investment climate with respect to the economic and financial situation. Next, we describe the principal amendments to the Law on Concessions that the government presented to Parliament. Finally, based on our experience with successful PPPs in Western countries that could be applicable to the Kazakhstan context, we make recommendations in support of the PPP program Kazakhstan is currently preparing to launch. Our recommendations are divided in four important themes: investment climate, institutional organization, procedures, and business design. We strongly recommend that the government adhere to the principles and measures necessary to achieve high levels of credibility. Proving a trustworthy partner is the most important factor in creating and maintaining a successful and sustainable PPP program in a young country with strong economic indicators. The challenge is around the corner!! 1 This law does not allow concessions in the mining sector, which are regulated in the Law “On Mineral Wealth and Mineral Wealth Use.” KAZAKHSTAN: PPP OPPORTUNITIES IN A YOUNG COUNTRY 1 Section I: Investment Climate 1. Attracting Foreign Investment Of Central Asian countries, Kazakhstan has attracted sizeable foreign investment in the past 10 years. During that time, it has received around 80 percent of the total foreign investment coming to the region. In 2007 alone, foreigners have invested $43.5 billion in the country, which is equivalent to 42 percent of its GDP. Around 75 percent of the total investment was in the oil, gas, and mining sectors and related services. Professionals interviewed were very optimistic about the country’s capacity to attract more foreign investment in the near future, and they suggested that it is necessary to diversify this foreign investment in areas other than oil, gas, and mining. They also mentioned that PPPs in infrastructure could provide an opportunity for this diversification. Nevertheless, the energy sector will remain a draw. One important project that will generate more investment is the Kashagan oilfield, which will begin operating in 2011. The National Fund (also called National Oil Fund, since the major part of its money comes from oil revenues, remaining money being from other raw material sectors, privatization and state land sale) was established in Kazakhstan to promote economic stability in periods when oil production and/or the price of oil might be low. Parliament supervises this Fund, and it operates as a national reserve. The Fund can also help to mitigate inflation risk and to support the diversification of Kazakhstan’s economy through the creation/funding of institutions promoting new business like the Kazyna Sustainable Development Fund, Kazakhstan Development Bank, National Innovation Fund, Agriculture Development Program, and others. Kazakhstani professionals do not expect that changes in the tax code related to the export oil duty will damage foreign investment. The duty can generate around $1 billion for the government, and this sum is in addition to the $23 billion collected in the National Oil Fund. 2. Country Classification With Respect to Income According to World Bank’s classification,2 Kazakhstan is an upper-middle-income country with a GNI per capita in 2006 of $3,870.3 Neighboring countries like China, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan are lower-middle-income countries with GNI per capita between $906 and $3,595. On the other hand, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are lower-income countries with GNI per capita below $906. Only one of the Kazakhstan’s neighbors is upper middle income country: the Russian Federation. Kazakhstan ranks 71st out of 178 countries in the 2008 World Bank Doing Business report. This group of indicators shows Kazakhstan as an attractive country to businesses interested in long- term contracts in Central Asia. In addition, the country has had strong economic growth in the last eight years as well as economic and political stability. According to the World Bank, the most important risks it faces, in the short run, are to maintain macroeconomic and financial stability and, in the long run, to manage its potential “Dutch disease” problems adequately. 2 World Bank Atlas method 3 Although the estimated gross national income per person is $5,010 for 2007. KAZAKHSTAN: PPP OPPORTUNITIES IN A YOUNG COUNTRY 2 Figure 1: Kazakhstan Map 3. Economic Growth, Inflation, and International Economic Indicators Kazakhstan’s economic growth rate has been one of the highest in former Soviet countries in the last eight years, reaching an annual GDP of as high as 9.8 percent in 2000 and more than 8.5 percent in 2007. The principal resources bringing in higher revenues for Kazakhstan are oil, natural gas, copper, and zinc. The expected annual inflation rate is around 17 percent for this year, up from 10.8 percent last year. This trend could trigger an increase in interest rates by the National Bank of Kazakhstan (the central bank). Economic growth — projected to be 6.7 percent this year — will be lower than any other time in the last 10 years Even so, this rate is not bad for a period with many external shocks. This lower level of growth is explained by slow construction and credit expansion. After the economic crisis of 1998, Kazakhstan introduced a free-floating exchange rate for its currency, the tenge. However, the National Bank of Kazakhstan can participate in the market as it did in 2007 when the liquidity problem of the banking system required intervention to create equilibrium in the exchange rate market. Currently, one dollar is sold for 120 tenge. Last year, the National Bank of Kazakhstan used 25 percent of its reserves to protect the value of the tenge. Last year,
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