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Eirgrid, “Tomorrow's Energy Scenarios 2019 Ireland,” Tomorrow’s Energy Scenarios 2019 Ireland Planning our Energy Future EirGrid – Tomorrow’s Energy Scenarios 2019 Ireland • Planning our Energy Future • Page a Disclaimer EirGrid has followed accepted industry practice in the collection and analysis of data available. While all reasonable care has been taken in the preparation of this data, EirGrid is not responsible for any loss that may be attributed to the use of this information. Prior to taking business decisions, interested parties are advised to seek separate and independent opinion in relation to the matters covered by this document and should not rely solely upon data and information contained herein. Information in this document does not amount to a recommendation in respect of any possible investment. This document does not purport to contain all the information that a prospective investor or participant in the Single Electricity Market may need. For queries relating to this document please contact: [email protected]. Published October 2019. COPYRIGHT NOTICE All rights reserved. This entire publication is subject to the laws of copyright. This publication may not be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or manual, including photocopying without the prior written permission of the Transmission System Operator. ©EirGrid Plc. 2019 The Oval, 160 Shelbourne Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4, D04 FW28, Ireland. EirGrid – Tomorrow’s Energy Scenarios 2019 Ireland • Planning our Energy Future • Page b Table of contents Foreword .. ..................................................................................................................................1 Document Structure ...................................................................................................................2 Glossary of Terms .......................................................................................................................3 Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................5 1. Key changes from the consultation .........................................................................................6 1.1. Tomorrow’s Energy Scenarios 2019 consultation .........................................................7 1.2. Summary ....................................................................................................................7 2. Introduction .........................................................................................................................10 2.1. The grid ....................................................................................................................11 2.2. Single Electricity Market ...........................................................................................11 2.3. Strategy 2020-25 ......................................................................................................11 3. Scenario planning ................................................................................................................14 3.1. What are the Tomorrow’s Energy Scenarios? ..............................................................15 3.2. Why do we use scenario planning? ............................................................................16 3.3. Related EirGrid publications ......................................................................................17 3.4. Energy and climate policy .........................................................................................18 3.4.1. Electricity as an energy carrier .........................................................................19 3.4.2. Security of electricity supply ............................................................................20 4. Scenario storylines ...............................................................................................................22 5. Scenario building .................................................................................................................28 5.1. Changes from 2017 ...................................................................................................29 5.2. Scenario building ......................................................................................................29 5.2.1. Scenario evolution ..........................................................................................30 5.2.2. Design characteristics .....................................................................................30 5.2.3. Qualitative assessment ..................................................................................32 5.2.4. Quantitative assessment ................................................................................32 6. Demand mix .........................................................................................................................34 6.1. Total electricity requirement ......................................................................................35 6.2. Peak electricity demand ............................................................................................36 6.3. Energy efficiency .......................................................................................................38 6.3.1. Smart meters ..................................................................................................39 6.4. Residential and tertiary .............................................................................................39 6.4.1. Heat pumps ....................................................................................................39 6.5. Transport ..................................................................................................................40 6.5.1. Electric vehicles ..............................................................................................40 EirGrid – Tomorrow’s Energy Scenarios 2019 Ireland • Planning our Energy Future • Page b EirGrid – Tomorrow’s Energy Scenarios 2019 Ireland • Planning our Energy Future • Page c 6.6. Industrial ..................................................................................................................42 6.6.1. Large energy users ..........................................................................................42 7. Generation mix .....................................................................................................................44 7.1. Renewables ..............................................................................................................45 7.1.1. Onshore wind .................................................................................................45 7.1.2. Offshore wind .................................................................................................47 7.1.3. Solar photovoltaics .........................................................................................48 7.1.4. Biomass and waste .........................................................................................49 7.1.5. Marine ............................................................................................................50 7.1.6. RES-E ..............................................................................................................50 7.2. Fossil fuels ...............................................................................................................52 7.2.1. Peat ................................................................................................................52 7.2.2. Coal ................................................................................................................52 7.2.3. Oil ..................................................................................................................52 7.2.4. Gas .................................................................................................................53 7.2.5. Carbon capture utilisation and storage ............................................................54 8. Non-generation flexibility mix ..............................................................................................56 8.1. Interconnection ........................................................................................................57 8.2. Storage and Demand Side Management ...................................................................58 9. Locations .............................................................................................................................60 9.1. Ireland’s regions .......................................................................................................61 9.2. Generation locations .................................................................................................61 9.2.1. Onshore wind .................................................................................................62 9.2.2. Offshore wind .................................................................................................64 9.2.3. Solar PV ..........................................................................................................65 9.2.4. Gas generation ...............................................................................................65 9.3. Demand locations .....................................................................................................65 9.3.1. Large energy users ..........................................................................................66
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