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Most Factsheet May 2021

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Most Factsheet May 2021 FACT SHEETst As on 31 May 2021 BUY RIGHT : SIT TIGHT Buying quality companies and riding their growth cycle Déjà vu: Is FY22 a new avatar of FY04? Navin Agarwal (MD & CEO - Mo�lal Oswal AMC) History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme. - Mark Twain The Ni�y 50 currently is up 77% from the Covid low of 8,600 in March 2020. This brings back memories of FY04, when the Ni�y almost doubled from 934 in April 2003 to 1,800 in April 2004. This sharp bounce actually sustained for the next four years, during which the Ni�y went up another 3x to 5,200 by April 2008. Which brings us to the key ques�on – Is FY22 a rhyme of FY04? In other words, can we see the upcycle in stock markets con�nuing? So, it’s an interes�ng exercise to discuss the similari�es between FY04 and FY22, and what it would take for the FY04-08 cycle to rhyme over the next four years. First the similari�es – GDP growth – coming off lows: FY03 GDP growth was a low 3.8%. FY04 was the year of recovery to 8% GDP growth, which sustained over the next four years. Likewise, FY21 GDP growth is es�mated to be an all-�me low of -8%, and FY22 a smart recovery at 10%+ Real GDP Growth (% YoY) 10.3 11.0 9.3 9.3 9.8 8.8 8.5 8.3 7.9 7.9 7.4 8.0 6.6 6.4 6.8 6.5 4.8 5.5 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21F FY22F -8.0 Source: MOSL, Data as on 31st May-2021. Corporate Profits recovery: FY04 Corporate Profit to GDP was a low 4.7% which rose all the way to 8% over the next four years. Similarly, FY22 Corporate Profit to GDP is expected to be low at 2.5% , which should rise over the next four years. Corporate profits to GDP has fallen to around same level as in 2002 Corp Profit / GDP (%) 7.8 7.3 6.3 6.5 6.3 5.4 5.5 4.7 4.8 4.3 4.3 4.4 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.0 3.2 2.9 3.1 3.1 2.2 2.5 1.8 2.1 E E E E E FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY20 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY25 FY24 FY23 FY22 FY21 Source: MOSL, Data as on 31st May-2021. Benign interest rate: In FY04, 10-year GSec yield was about 5.4%. Currently too it is a benign 5.9-6%. Robust fund flow: In FY04, FII flows were USD 9.5 bn, high by then standards. We ended FY21 with FII flow of USD 37 bn. Stable rupee, healthy forex reserves: In FY04, the rupee was stable around INR 45 to the USD with USD 150 bn of forex reserves. Currently, the rupee is holding itself around INR 75, with about 600 bn of forex reserves. On the currency front, the INR has displayed remarkable stability given the underlying record forex reserves (USD583b). The INR depreciated 0.7% in Feb’2021. The INR had its best �me during the Eurozone crisis, Taper tantrum, Yuan Low infla�on characterized Projected Fx growth – 2003-07 global bull run when the GDP and devalua�on - the Taper tantrum the period post 2015. The correla�on seen in the past corporate earnings growth were high and episode in 2013 drove the INR down INR has been rela�vely less suggests a rela�vely stable INR twin deficits – CAD, FD – were amongst sharply from 55 to 68 in just four vola�le despite several the lowest in two decades. Pre GFC peak months. This was a period of high global headwinds. FX infla�on and INR deprecia�on. reverses are surging. 90 in FX reserves 900 19 -4.5 2.8 8.9 -0.3 -2.0 2.6 8.4 -20.9 12.9 0.7 -12.4 -6.3 -9.4 -4.2 -5.7 2.2 -0.5 -5.8 -8.4 3.6 51 34 56 750 75 119 600 60 450 300 45 150 30 0 Mar'00 Mar'01 Mar'02 Mar'03 Mar'04 Mar'05 Mar'06 Mar'07 Mar'08 Mar'09 Mar'10 Mar'11 Mar'12 Mar'13 Mar'14 Mar'15 Mar'16 Mar'17 Mar'18 Mar'19 Mar'20 Mar'21 Mar'22 Mar'23 Mar'24 Mar'25 INR Change for the year Change in FX Reserves (USD b) Forex Reserves (USD b) (RHS) USD:INR Source: MOSL, Data as on 31st May-21. Having understood the similari�es between FY04 and FY22, it’s equally if not more important to assess what it will take for the FY04-08 rally to rhyme over FY22-26. Capex-led growth: This is arguably the single-most dis�nc�ve feature of the FY04-08 growth story. Fueled by global liquidity led demand, capital goods output growth went from -3% in FY01 to as high as 50% in FY07. This led to broadbased GDP growth, driving up discre�onary consump�on from a low -6% in FY02 to a high 33% in FY07. Cap goods output has contracted sharply Discre�onary consump�on has taken a hit as also seen in 2002 60 35 50 33.1 40 25 30 15 20 10 5 0 -10 -5 -20 -3.4 -12.0 -15 -6.3 -6.9 * * 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Capital goods output (%, yoy) Consumer durable goods output (%, yoy) Source: Spark Capital, Data as on 31st May-2021. Divestment Receipts (INR b) 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,000 1,000 947 421 477 503 500 388 294 377 320 170 246 228 181 259 17 21 36 32 44 16 5 6 0 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22BE Source: Spark Capital, Data as on 31st May-2021. Higher savings and investment rates: A corollary to capex-led growth is high savings and investment rate in the economy. Between 2002 and 2007, savings rate jumped 10 percentage points—from 25% of GDP to almost 35%. This figure currently stands at 30-31%, and needs to pick up going forward. The same is true of Investment to GDP which is down to sub-32% from almost 40% in FY08. 45.0 38.1 39.0 38.7 36.5 36.5 40.0 34.7 35.7 34.3 33.8 33.5 33.9 32.8 36.8 32.1 32.0 32.7 32.2 35.0 34.6 34.6 31.0 33.4 33.7 33.7 33.9 29.5 32.4 32.0 32.1 32.2 32.1 30.0 26.6 26.8 31.1 31.3 30.6 31.4 30.3 30.4 24.8 24.3 24.2 29.0 25.0 25.5 25.9 23.7 24.8 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21F FY22F Investments (% of GDP) Savings (% of GDP) Source: MOSL, Data as on 31st May-2021. Sustained Corporate Profit Growth & no major valua�on dera�ng: The nascent recovery in corporate earnings growth seen in 3Q and 4Q of FY21 need to sustain into FY22 and beyond. In terms of valua�on, market P/E is definitely higher than long-period average. But this can be explained by way of low interest rates and expected high growth rates. Further, even in terms of Market Cap to GDP, India is at around 100%. Many countries are at much higher levels. Ni�y EPS FY20-22: FY97-03: 3.5% CAGR FY03-08: 25% CAGR FY09-20: 6% CAGR 26% CAGR 872 750 FY97-FY20: 8% CAGR 535 483 426 449 472 369 405 416 397 315 348 236 281 251 247 184 131 169 75 84 71 75 73 78 92 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY97 FY21E FY22E FY23E Source: MOSL, Data as on 31st May-2021. NIFTY P/E (x) - 1 Year Forward 26 10 Year Avg: 18.8x 22 19.7 18 14 10 17 16 13 15 19 21 12 14 18 20 11 May- May- May- May- May- May- May- May- May- May- May- Source: MOSL, Data as on 31st May-2021. 559 Mcap/GDP (%) 324 304 222 180 129 136 133 131 102 79 World Taiwan Saudi Switzerland United Canada South Japan UK India China Arabia States Korea Source: Bloomberg, Data as on 31st May-2021. Risks to the hypothesis: The central idea of comparison is to draw inferences from history and iden�fy pa�erns, if any, and their probability of reoccurrence. There are a few inherent risks to this resemblance between FY04 and FY22.
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