Population explosion v s On 11 July 2010, people around the world will observe the 21st World Day. The main aim of this day is to increase people’s awareness on various issues related to population, such as the importance of , , , , and human rights. The latest addition to this is, of course, sustainable development. R Gupta analyses the dynamics of the ‘number game’ in relation to India’s sustainable development.

n India, a mockery can be made of explosion. “If there is electricity in every India’s population has exploded since any situation; a classic example being village, then people will watch TV till late independence. The United Nations (UN) Ithat of population explosion and the night, and then fall asleep. They would has projected in its 2004 revision of ways to control it. Ghulam Nabi Azad, not get a chance to produce children,” the Prospects that Union Minister of Health and Family Azad said. “When there is no electricity, India would surpass China’s population Welfare, recently announced his there is nothing else to do but produce by 2050. At present, the two countries intention to harness the ‘passion- babies,” he declared! together account for about 40% of the killing’ properties of late night In the wake of ‘such’ political will world’s total population. By 2050, India’s TV to help control population and decisions, it is no wonder that population will swell to 1.592 billion, while China’s will be contained at stresses also lead to the movement of For many poor families in India, a child is another mouth to feed, but provides two hands to work and 1.392 billion. poor families to towns (distress migration). bring money for the family. This is one of the key reasons for the unchecked rise of India’s population. While mega cities have emerged, urban WHAT WENT WRONG? slums are fast expanding. And this rapid Indeed, India is in the midst of a and unplanned expansion of cities has The consequences of this rapid population Management Institute (IWMI), which decades or so. In the foreword to the report, population explosion, despite being the resulted in the degradation of urban growth are starkly reflected in four estimates that aquifer depletion could Jamshyd Godrej, Chairman of the CII Green first country in the developing world to environment as well. It has widened the areas—poverty, changes in land use, reduce India’s grain harvest by one-fourth. Business Centre, said, “This report…shows initiate a state-sponsored family-planning gap between the demand and supply of environmental degradation, and over The prognosis continues with a warning that India is depleting its ecological assets programme in 1952. This initially led to a infrastructural services, such as energy, exploitation of natural resources. India’s of political anarchy, “Falling water tables in support of its current economic boom decline in the fertility rates from six births housing, transport, communication, massive population base (of which ample will likely lead to rising grain prices on a and the growth of its population.” per woman of child-bearing age to 3.5, but education, water supply, sewerage, and numbers live below the poverty line), scale that could destabilize not only grain The report has some other interesting the victory was short-lived. recreational amenities, thus initiating an unsustainable agricultural, with relatively markets, but possibly the government observations to make. While the overall The efforts to encourage family expeditious depletion of the precious small scope for further expansion of itself.” The scientists further intone, ecological footprint (EF) of the country is planning among the poor sections of the environmental resource base of the cities. agricultural land, and flawed industrial “The principal threat now may not be very high, the per capita footprint is still society suffered a setback in the 1970s, The impact can be seen in the form of practices make the relationship between military aggression from without but extremely low, ranking 125th amongst when the government sponsored a mass the deterioration in air and water quality, population pressure and environmental from within.” 152 countries. Clearly, this is because sterilization campaign, in which illiterate dwindling groundwater resources, degradation extremely strong. This doomsday prediction may the high population lowers the average. people were duped or paid to have mounting heaps of wastes, proliferation According to Lester Brown and come true as India is already living well But what is surprising is that the per vasectomies (permanent birth control for of slums, and so on. These, in turn, Brian Halweil, scientists at the United beyond its means. According to a report capita EF has actually fallen over the last males) or salpingectomy (removal of the contribute to urban poverty. States-based Worldwatch Institute, India’s Ecological Footprint: a business half-century. The report ascribes this to not fallopian tubes in females). Furthermore, Increase in urban population, and “overpopulation” is the major causative perspective of the Global Footprint only the rapid rise in population, but also the emphasis of the government’s family the consequent densely inhabited areas, factor of food scarcity and environmental Network (GFN) and the Confederation of to the reality that “while the standard of planning policy has recently changed has also lead to poor sanitation. Another degradation. They outline a gloomy Indian Industry (CII), India has the world’s living has improved for some, the majority towards educating women, rather than problem is malnutrition, which sometimes picture for India, “Well before hitting third largest ecological footprint, after are making due (sic) with less.” promoting the use of birth control goes hand-in-hand with the increase the one billion mark, the demands of the United States and China. Indians use Other than EF, the study also looks at measures, such as the use of condoms. in population, making humans more India’s population were outrunning its almost double the natural resources India’s water footprint (WF), or the water This is a slow and difficult process, susceptible to diseases and ailments. natural resource base. This can be seen within the country than it can sustain. The usage that is involved not only in direct especially in the rural areas where men Now, take this—according to the UN, over in its shrinking forests, deteriorating report further states that the capacity of consumption for drinking, irrigation, have a greater say in these matters than 55% of Indians will live in urban areas rangelands, and falling water tables.” nature to sustain Indians has declined and industries, but also in the making of the women. The result of all this is a by 2050! They quote the International Water sharply – by almost half – in the last few products that Indians consume (including never-ending population problem. imports). It appears that India has the THE CONSEQUENCES highest WF in the world, accounting for THE VICIOUS CIRCLE Growing at a rate of more than 1.6% a 13% of total global usage, given that we Inefficiencies in the Indian system exist year, India’s population accounts for about have 17% of the world’s population. Again, because most Indians are uneducated, 17% of the world’s people, while the however, the average WF per capita is and lack access to innovations, due to country occupies less than 3% of the land God! This so-called lower than that of many other countries. key reasons for the unchecked rise of population explosion The report points to the inefficiency of abject poverty and red-tapism. Indeed, area worldwide. Hence, it is no wonder that has left just no room poverty is one of the main reasons why India’s population. sustainable development is proving to to walk!!! Well, at least the water use in agriculture, and the fear of India has a mammoth environmental The circular link between poverty and be a Herculean task for the country. environmentalists have stopped serious crisis if India tries to significantly complaining about rising footprint. Poverty breeds big families and environment is an extremely complex According to the UN, the future vehicular ! expand crop production without reducing consequently, environmental degradation. phenomenon. Poverty and inequality generations of India may have to face the inefficiency. Asha Rane was a professor at the foster unsustainability because the poor, widespread shortages of food and water One can broadly divide the main Mumbai-based Tata Institute for Social who rely on natural resources more than if the country’s demographic growth does upshots of population explosion in India Sciences and now runs the Hamara Club, the rich, deplete natural resources faster, not slow down. Almost every measure under the following heads. a project, which helps children living on as they have no access to other types of of progress that India has made since the streets of Mumbai. In her day to day resources. The degraded environment, independence has been checked by its Agriculture work life, she comes across many families in turn, accelerates the process of growing population—food production has Most of the rural population in India is who believe in the “one mouth, two hands” impoverishment, as the poor depend trebled but many people remain hungry; engaged in agriculture, and hence, it is theory. For many poor families in India, directly on the natural assets. literacy has increased but so has the no surprise that the population explosion a child is another mouth to feed, but total number of illiterate people. In other has affected land and water resources the provides two hands to work and bring URBAN TRAGEDY words, the country is far from achieving most. Among all the countries worldwide, money for the family, especially as the Lack of opportunities for gainful its millennium development goals, thanks India faces the most acute pressure on parents grow old. This is one of the employment in villages and the ecological to the exploding numbers. agricultural land. Today, every million

28 terragreen julyjuly 20102010 terragreenterragreen july 2010 29 hectare of land supports 7.27 million Ironically, despite the expansion, less The impact on agricultural land varies from The consequences of this rapid population growth are starkly reflected in four areas— people! About 44% of the land is under agricultural land is available today to feed state to state. In states like Tamil Nadu, poverty, changes in land use, environmental degradation, and over exploitation of natural resources. cultivation—one of the highest in the each person in India, as compared to the where replacement level of fertility has world. Over the past 50 years, while India’s situation a few decades back. To add fuel to been attained, population growth rates are total population almost tripled, the total the fire, agricultural practices have changed much lower than in many other states; but the country’s position in the world in 235 million cu m, as against a sustainable pumping station, where someone area of land under cultivation increased for the worse. Agricultural intensification, the is high, which puts terms of population and forest resources. capacity of about 48 million cu m. The has removed a couple of bricks from by only about 20.27% – from 118.75 because of increasing cropping intensity, pressure on land. In states like Rajasthan, India possesses around 16% of the annual demand for industrial wood is the base to allow a steady flow of water to million hectares in 1951 to 142.82 million irrigation intensity, and excessive use of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh, world’s population and 15% of world’s about 28 million cu m, as against the pour out. hectares in 2001 – and thereafter, has not chemical fertilizers, has resulted in water population is growing rapidly, resulting livestock, but only 2.4% of the world’s production capacity of 12 million cu m. “In the last six years, it has been raining shown any substantial increase. The per logging, salinization, and alkalinization in increasing pressure on land and land land area and 1.7% of the world’s forest Destruction of forests also has a rippling much less. The population has increased, capita availability of agricultural land of croplands and eutrophication of water fragmentation. stock. Obviously, land and forest resources effect on the biodiversity, which is crucial but the water supply is the same,” in rural areas has declined consistently, bodies, and thus, reductions in biodiversity are not proportionate with the burden to maintain the ecological balance. says Chand Miya, the local committee from 0.638 hectares in 1950/51 to across the country. Many studies show Forests of population and livestock, and the chairman of the Durga Dham slum. 0.227 hectares in 2005/06, and is expected that most of the land India is degrading, The destruction of agricultural lands growing population is making matters Water Fifty years ago, Bhopal had a population to decline further due to population which is affecting the productive resource spells more trouble for the forests. worse with each passing day. The per India’s water situation can be gauged of 100 000; today, it is 1.8 million and growth, of course. base of the economy. Out of the total With land becoming unfit for agriculture, capita availability of forestland was about from Bhopal’s crisis, where 100 000 people rising. Scrambles and fights for water What is more, the expansion of geographical area of 328.7 million hectares, vast stretches of forests are being cleared 0.113 hectares in the 1950s, which has rely solely on the water tankers that have, thus, become everyday affairs. agricultural land has taken place at the 175 million hectares are considered to be for farmers’ use. The enormity of stress declined to 0.063 hectares in 2005/06! shuttle across the city. But not everyone The situation is the same in most expense of forest and grazing lands. land-degraded area. on forests in India can be judged from It is estimated that the livelihood of gets a tanker delivery. The city has other parts of the country. On an average, 70 million tribal and 200 million non-tribal 380 registered slums, but there are water withdrawal in the country is rural people in India is dependent on numerous other shanties where people estimated to be twice the rate of aquifer forests. Apart from fulfilling subsistence have to find their own means to get recharge, reducing the water table by Oh do not be silly! If these hu- needs, forests provide them with water. Some, like the Malviyas, tap into the 1–3 m every year. According to a 2009 mans had not cut those trees, we would have missed the chance of employment and monetary income. main supply. Others cluster around the study by the National Aeronautics and staying in these posh high-rise On the other hand, this large-scale ventilation valves for the main pipelines Space Administration (NASA), parts of buildings!!! I miss my home...the dependence exerts pressure on the green that stick up out of the ground from place India will soon face severe water shortages. lush green trees...the resource, leading to its degradation. to place, trying to catch the small amounts The study shows that in the country’s fresh air... Unregulated extraction of fuel wood of water leaking out. In the Balveer Nagar north-west regions, including Delhi, the is a major cause of forest degradation. slum, 250 families have no supply at all. water table is falling by about 4 cm per year. The current annual withdrawal of The women get up in the middle of the Over the six-year timeframe of the study, fuelwood from forests is estimated at night to walk two km to the nearest about 109 cu km of water were depleted

Kerala: a drift from the norm Kerala is an exception for India, as far as population control is concerned. The growth rate in the densely populated Kerala is nearing the zero mark, and in the coming years, the number of births and deaths in the state is expected to be equal! Couples with three or more children are being replaced by those with two or less. The fertility level in the state is already below the replacement level. “Though the birth rate is on the decline, the number of women in the reproductive age-group is still high, owing to the backlog from previous years and teenage marriages in certain sections. Once this backlog is cleared, Kerala will touch ,” says a recent study conducted by the Centre for Development Studies (CDS), Thiruvananthapuram. From an average of six children per woman in the 1950s, the fertility rate dropped to 2.8 in 1981 and 1.7 in 1996. This decline in female fertility is about 40%, as against a national average of 20%. Kerala’s Malappuram district has registered a whopping two-digit fall in the decadal rate of population growth. The main reason for the success of the family planning programme in Kerala is that, unlike other states, it did not target mothers directly. Family planning was made a part of the healthcare system, so that every woman who went to a hospital or dispensary to immunize her child returned with the small family message. Women, who were initially turned off by the aggressive targeting, began to respond positively towards the programme once it focused on the health of their children. Other influencing factors included education and land reforms. Today, an average Malayalee family prefers to invest in its children’s education in anticipation of long-term financial advantages. Changing social conditions also compelled couples to opt for smaller families; as more and more women started to work, sterilization became a good option.

30 terragreen july 2010 terragreen july 2010 31 from the study region, implying that If we continue on our current trajectory of population growth, even the most conservative more than double the capacity of India’s Some basic facts projections by the UNited nations suggest that by 2050, India will demand resources at double the largest reservoir is gone between 2002 1. Each year, India adds and 2008! more people to the rate at which the earth can regenerate them. To make matters worse, tapping into world’s population than deeper aquifers have exposed larger any other country. In 1997, population groups to health hazards there were almost as of life for its citizens? With bio-capacity way it is managed. Although agricultural “human beings are at the centre of concern like fluoride and arsenic contamination. many babies born in India being a limiting factor, how can India technologies can boost productivity, it can for sustainable development” – by taking At the other end of the spectrum, excessive (about 25 million) as in all safeguard its remaining natural resources, diminish biodiversity. Energy-intensive full account of how population and society use of water has led to water logging of Sub-Saharan Africa and while meeting the demands of a agriculture and heavy reliance on fertilizer interact with the natural environment. and increase in salinity in some parts of more than in China (21 million). growing population? use have increased agricultural yields, Way back in 1992, the UN Conference the country. Even surface water resources 2. Although the total fertility rate is declining by 42% since the mid-1960s, the Instead of harping on the use of late but at the cost of a larger footprint on Environment and Development have not been spared, with various continued increase in the number of women of reproductive age suggests continued night TV, the government can slow down associated with the increased inputs. also acknowledged that population studies showing that some 70%–80% of high numbers of births. Contraceptive prevalence has risen substantially, from 13% of population growth and eventually, reverse The need of the day is to preserve growth, rising income levels, changing the fresh water marshes and lakes in the married women using contraception in 1970 to 41% in 1993. Yet, close to 35 million it by helping families to choose to have the environs by protecting soil from technologies, and increasing consumption Gangetic flood plains have been lost in the married women have an unmet need for family planning. fewer children. Offering women access to erosion and other forms of degradation; will all have adverse impacts on the last 50 years. 3. HIV/AIDS in India is spreading fast. With an estimated 2–5 million infected people in better education, economic opportunities, safeguarding river basins, wetlands, and environment. Ensuring that there is mid-1996, India has more adults living with HIV than any other country. family planning, and healthcare facilities watersheds to secure freshwater supplies; no further deterioration is dependant Air 4. Indian states vary widely with respect to fertility, mortality, and contraceptive are proven approaches to achieving this. and maintaining healthy forests and upon the choices made by the Danger is also lurking in the air, literally. use. In general, there is a north/south gradient—most western and southern states These investments will also enhance the fisheries. Prevention or mitigation of the population about family size, lifestyles, More people also means more air have lower mortality, lower fertility, and higher contraceptive use. In the north, Uttar health and educational outcomes of those impacts of climate change can also help environmental protection, and equity. pollution. In India, the levels of suspended Pradesh is the most populous state, with high mortality, low contraceptive use, and families’ children. maintain yields, as can the elimination Availability of appropriate technology particles in 10 of the largest cities are the highest fertility. Bio-productivity and EF depend of the use of toxic chemicals that and commitment towards ensuring three to five times greater than the both on the type of ecosystem and the degrade ecosystems. sustainable development is increasing permissible standards of the World population of India was just over a billion conservative projections by the UN If the Indian government does not throughout the world. India must take Health Organization. and about 10 motor vehicles for every suggest that by 2050, India will demand put the human population at the core of heed of this now, as it can initiate steps to With growing population, the 1000 people—a total of roughly 10 million resources at double the rate at which the sustainable development agenda, check that the natural dependence on fossil fuel-based energy motor vehicles in the country. In 2020, the earth can regenerate them. However, its efforts to improve human well-being, of the environment is not damaged has also increased. And this has aggravated the population of India is expected to be reaching this level of consumption may preserve the quality of the environment, beyond recovery and the ecological the level of air pollution in India. Reliance about 1.3 billion, with about 44 motor be impossible, as the natural capital being and achieve sustainable development balance is, to a large extent, maintained. n on coal as the major energy source, for vehicles for every 1000 people, making used to enable this may well will fail miserably. This was also the first instance, has led to a nine-fold jump in a total of 57 million vehicles! More be depleted in the coming few decades. principle of the 1992 Rio Declaration – R Gupta is a Delhi-based freelance writer. carbon emissions over the past 40 years. vehicles means more air pollution, more Serious efforts to avoid an ‘ecosystem The government estimates that the cost fuel consumption, more traffic jams, and collapse’ must be taken by the Indian of environmental degradation has been more demand for road construction, government. While doing so, policy-makers running at 4.5% of the Gross Domestic which usually happens at the cost of need to consider that even after birth Product (GDP) in recent years. The low agricultural land. It is also associated with rates fall below the replacement levels, energy efficiency of power plants is a the problem of global warming. the country’s population will continue contributing factor. to expand for many years. Therefore, Vehicular emission is another menace, To sum up the critical question is that how can as evident from the number of registered If we continue on our current trajectory India ensure both continued economic motor vehicles in India. In 2000, the of population growth, even the most growth and a globally replicable quality

The mirror image Do not send any more people India is not the only country where one can see stark examples of how human existence is causing large-scale degradation. from Earth...even we have reached on the verge of And the Amazon lowlands in Ecuador is one of the most talked about examples. The region is one of the world’s 11 biodiversity exploding!!! hotspots. Much of this region, however, is witnessing rapid . This is due to the large influx of people, mainly from low-income, land-scarce rural areas, after it was connected by roads built by petroleum companies to lay pipelines and extract oil. Almost half of the region’s population was born elsewhere. High migration, combined with high fertility, has shot up the population by over double the national rate during the past few decades. Lake Chad in Africa is also a victim of human greed. It has lost 95% of its area in the last 40 years, not only because of drier weather but also due to increased demand for irrigation. Settled farmers have replaced the nomadic cultures and fishermen, who depended on its waters. Agriculture and industry have diverted large amounts of water, with sometimes disastrous effects on the lake. The Aral Sea’s fate is no different. It has been destroyed by the diversion of its feeder waters for irrigation. terragreen july 2010 33