General Conclusion

General Conclusion The world population surpassed one billion around 1800 and reached a second billion in 1930. The third billion was attained in 1960, the fourth in 1974, the fi fth in 1987, and the sixth in 1999. Additional billions added up at an accelerating pace in only 30, 14, 13, and 12 years, respectively. The fi r s t doubling of the world population between 1800 and 1930 took 130 years. The second doubling of the world population, from two to four billion, occurred in just 44 years. The seventh billion will be reached in 2011. This is likely to be the fi rst new billion that will not have been added more rapidly than the previous one. The world population will reach its eighth billion in 2024, i.e., 13 years after reaching the seventh billion mark. The third and most likely last doubling of the world population, from four to eight billion, will probably take 50 years. Therefore, despite the huge growth of the population in absolute terms between 1960 and 2011, the rate of growth of the world’s population has fi nally slowed down. The demographic transition, which has started at different times and has evolved at different speeds in different areas, has brought about striking contrasts between the various continents, regions, and countries of the world. Today, variations of demographic patterns and trends range from very high fertility to sub-replacement fertility situations, from very young to aging populations, and from immigration- open to immigration-shy countries. Populations of developing countries and least developed countries (LDCs) are still growing rapidly. Some very fast growing countries, like Yemen or Niger, will see a tripling or a quadrupling of their population in a mere 40 years. Their exploding populations will undermine their development prospects and could possibly threaten their existence as nation states. At the extreme end of the spectrum, developed countries have experienced a major slowdown of their demographic growth. Countries that experience fertility levels well below replacement, such as Germany and Japan will see their population age and dwindle. Sometimes, these countries are even confronted with negative population momentum, meaning that their efforts to increase fertility are failing to improve the balance between births and deaths because of unfavorable age structures. J.F. May, World Population Policies: Their Origin, Evolution, and Impact, 271 DOI 10.1007/978-94-007-2837-0, © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012 272 General Conclusion Overall, the world has become more demographically diverse than ever. The world population is also much more fragmented politically, into about 240 countries and territorial entities. After World War II large public health and immunization programs were launched in developing countries and the LDCs. These triggered spectacular declines in mortality and, as a consequence, an acceleration of population growth. Corrective measures were necessary, and they fi rst came in the form of family planning programs, initially in a few vanguard countries and thereafter in many developing countries. A network of national and international population institutions supported the large-scale diffusion of reliable contraceptives. The major international population conferences held in 1974, 1984 and 1994 further contributed to the internationalization of population issues and to defi ne new population and development paradigms. These eventually led to the advent of more formalized population policies. The main goal of these policies was to curb fertility in order to mitigate demographic growth and population pressure. These programs and policies were undeniably successful: they gave couples access to information and family planning services (even if millions of couples still do not have access to such services today). These policies and programs also benefi ted from important transformations in the economy and the role of women, as well as the upheaval of traditional attitudes relative to sexuality and reproduction. The fast transmission of new ideas, thanks to mass media and new means of communica- tion, accelerated the process. Nevertheless, initial population policies were too often top-down and driven by global targets. In some countries, they also resorted to coercion. The shift to individual concerns took place later, in the 1980s and 1990s. At that time, population policies became broader by including in their mandates reproductive health, follow- ing the recommendations of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) held in Cairo in 1994. The ICPD established that population objectives would be reached faster if couples’ and individuals’ needs were taken into account instead of imposing macro-demographic goals. Population policies also came to include a series of new issues, including women’s empowerment, the fi ght against poverty, and the protection of the environment. This inclusivity trend led to policies that were more open to international efforts in economic and social development, as well as poverty alleviation. The last 20 years have also seen the forging of a stronger relationship between human development policies (including those regarding population) and human rights considerations, partly to counter the past abuses of some family planning programs. Basic services in health, reproductive health, as well as education are now considered to be part and parcel of individual rights, even if fi nancial means are not always readily avail- able to fulfi ll these new ambitions. In recent decades, new challenges for population policies have emerged as well. In some countries of sub-Saharan Africa in particular, the HIV/AIDS epidemic could modify the completion of the demographic transition. Fast growing populations may face specifi c security challenges, triggered by the youth bulge and the diffi culties of providing employment to ever-larger cohorts of young men and General Conclusion 273 women. Although emigration trends will bring some benefi ts in the form of remittances in developing countries and LDCs, the heavy “brain drain” might also deprive these countries of much-needed human capital. Urbanization trends will also pose new challenges for social inclusion and equity. Finally, the major threat of global warming and climate change will affect poor people and poor nations disproportionately. Many developed countries, especially in Europe and Asia, are seeing rapid population aging triggered by low fertility levels and accelerated by longer life-spans. They will soon face the issue of depopulation. Policies to increase fertility have not yet proven very effective, especially in East Asia. Immigration fl ows that developed countries must accommodate and the diffi cult debate about replacement immigration are also stirring up nationalist refl exes and identity crises. Population policies, or the absence of such policies, will determine to a large extent the demographic evolution of human societies. For instance, the fulfi llment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) will depend on successful interventions to change demographic patterns and trends. In turn, these patterns and trends will affect efforts to eradicate poverty and reduce other social inequities. The attainment of global food security and nutrition goals, particularly in developing countries, will also be infl uenced by the success of population policies, as these projected outcomes are based on assumptions of declining fertility levels. It could also be argued that international security goals will depend on the results of policies aimed at mitigating the socioeconomic consequences of the youth bulge, such as uprisings and civil confl ict. In this age of globalization, it is tempting to imagine that population patterns and trends are shaped by transnational forces. Indeed, mass media, instant communi- cation, and international migration movements make our world smaller. All these phenomena exert a profound infl uence, even at local level. The international transmission of experiences between countries also helps to accelerate the design, adoption, and implementation of population policies. Nevertheless, population policies, or their absence, are still dictated mostly by processes that work at national level. At the end of the day, governments themselves will need to design policies to address their own demographic issues. Governments, with the support of their development partners, will need to implement the policies, after obtaining the agree- ment of their national public opinions. Policies on migration also need to be enacted by the states, either on the sending side or the receiving end, although this process can be facilitated by transnational agreements. The context in which population policies operate is determined by three major factors, namely the demographic issues that have to be addressed, the strategies that must be implemented, and the stakeholders who need to be mobilized. However, this context has changed considerably. Population policies are now confronted with a much larger range of demographic issues than before. Moreover, they are com- pelled to reassess their priorities and sharpen their intervention strategies. Three major issues need to be addressed before designing and implementing population policies. First, one must ascertain the very nature of population policies. Is obtaining public goods the paramount aim of population policy 274 General Conclusion interventions? Should taxpayers’ money be used to obtain these public goods?

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