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Reducing River Export of Nutrients from Sub-Basins to Lake Dianchi in The

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Reducing River Export of Nutrients from Sub-Basins to Lake Dianchi in The Reducing river export of nutrients from sub-basins to Lake Dianchi in the future Chuan Ma MSc Thesis in Environmental Systems Analysis March 2019 By Chuan Ma (Feb. 2015) Supervised by: Water Systems and Global Change group: Dr. Maryna Strokal, Prof. Dr. Carolien Kroeze Environmental Systems Analysis group: Dr. Nynke Hofstra Course code: ESA-80436 Reducing river export of nutrients from sub-basins to Lake Dianchi in the future Chuan Ma Reg. No. 950525536090 MSc Thesis in Environmental Systems Analysis March 2019 Supervisor(s): Examiners: 1) Dr. Nynke Hofstra (ESA) 1st: Dr. Maryna Strokal [email protected] 2) Dr. Maryna Strokal (WSG) 2nd: Dr. Nynke Hofstra [email protected] 3) Prof. Dr. Carolien Kroeze (WSG) [email protected] Disclaimer: This report is produced by a student of Wageningen University as part of her MSc- programme. It is not an official publication of Wageningen University and Research and the content herein does not represent any formal position or representation by Wageningen University and Research. Copyright © 2019 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, without the prior consent of the Environmental Systems Analysis group of Wageningen University and Research. Summary Lake Dianchi is an important source of fresh water for human needs in Yunnan province of China. However, the water quality of the lake is poor, and the lake is highly eutrophic. Algal blooms happen frequently due to high concentrations of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N). This is because rivers export increasing amounts of N and P to the lake. As a result, the clean water availability for cities and agriculture has declined. High concentrations of N and P in the lake are largely related to intensive human activities on land. These are agriculture, urbanization and mining that add N and P to rivers which further export these nutrients to the lake. The local government has tried to reduce nutrient-related problems in the lake. However, the efforts do not work so well. Therefore, there is a need to better understand the effects of the environmental policies and technologies to reduce future river export of N and P to the lake and thus to reduce eutrophication problems. The objective of this thesis is to analyse the effects of environmental policies and technologies on reducing future river export of nutrients from sub-basins to Lake Dianchi. To reach the main objective, three research questions are formulated below: 1. What environmental policies and technologies exist to reduce nutrient pollution in Lake Dianchi? 2. What is the river export of nutrients to Lake Dianchi in the future? 3. What are the effects of environmental policies and technologies on reducing future river export of nutrients to Lake Dianchi? The first research question was answered through a literature review. Recent environmental policies and technologies to reduce water pollution of Lake Dianchi were reviewed. I implemented the MARINA-Lake model to answer the second and third research questions. MARINA stands for a Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs. The model was developed for China. This model has been recently implemented to Lake Dianchi for 2012 by Li et al., (2019). I used the version of Li et al., (2019) to quantify river export of dissolved inorganic (DIN, DIP) and organic (DON, DOP) N and P to the lake for 2050. For the second research question, SSP3 (the Shared Socio-economic Pathway 3) was used to reflect the worst- case conditions in the lake catchment. For the third research question, I developed four alternative scenarios relative to SSP3. The first alternative scenario assumes implementation of the current environmental policies in agriculture and sewage (CP). The second and third alternative scenarios assume implementation of advanced technologies to treat wastewater in sewage systems (AS1) and improved nutrient management in agriculture and mining (AS2), respectively. The fourth alternative scenario (AS3) combines AS1 and AS2. Environmental policies aim at reducing water pollution problems from agriculture, mining and sewage systems. Environmental technologies aim largely at increasing nutrient removal efficiencies of wastewater treatment in sewage systems. Two main directions of the environmental policies are identified: policies for improving nutrient management on land and policies for improving water quality. National environmental policies form the basis of the local policies for reducing nutrient pollution in Lake Dianchi. “Zero growth in synthetic fertilizer use after 2020” is an example of the national environmental policy for improving nutrient management on land. This policy sets targets for manure recycling (60% in 2020) and for zero growth in fertilizer use after 2020. An example of the local policy is “Lake Dianchi protection and management in 2018”. This policy sets water quality improving targets by 2020. There are local policies aiming to eliminate mining activities around the Lake Dianchi. In general, the local government aims to increase the number of people with sewage connections and thereby improve nutrient removal efficiencies. Current removal efficiencies (mostly are primary or secondary technologies) in the existing wastewater treatment plants do not match the requirement of recent policies (tertiary technology). According to SSP3, river export of nutrients to Lake Dianchi is projected to increase by 1.4-4.4 times between 2012-2050. Point sources are responsible for over half of the nutrients in the lake, except for river export of DIN where the use of synthetic fertilizers is also important. Over half of DON and 80% of DIP in the lake is expected to result from sewage systems in 2050. Direct discharges of manure and human waste is simulated to remain important sources of DOP in the lake. In general, agricultural-related sources are projected to be an important cause of DIN (synthetic fertilizers) and DOP (direct discharges of manure) in rivers of the middle and southern sub-basins. Mining is expected to contribute to DIP in the southern rivers. Sewage systems may contribute to DIN, DON, DIP and DOP in rivers of the northern sub-basins. Current policies are projected to reduce river export of nutrients to the lake by 2050 compared to SSP3, but not to below the level of 2012 (the CP scenario). This CP scenario assumes implementation of the following current policies: “Zero growth in synthetic fertilizer use after 2020”; “National urban sewage treatment and recycling planning in 13th Five-Year”; “Notice on closure, management and restoration of stone and sand quarries in Lake Dianchi valley and Xishan key protected areas”. The CP scenario projects lower river export of nutrients than SSP3 for three reasons. First, current policies are expected to increase the manure recycling rate and reduce direct discharges of manure to rivers in 2050. Second, the use of synthetic fertilizers is projected to reduce by 2020 and stay at the level of 2020 in 2050. This is different in SSP3 where the use of synthetic fertilizers is projected to increase by 26% from 2012 to 2050. Third, more people are projected to be connected to sewage systems, but with slightly improved nutrient removal efficiencies in 2050 compared to 2012 according to the CP scenario. In SSP3, nutrient removal efficiencies are assumed to be lower than in CP. It is possible to reduce future river export of dissolved inorganic and organic N and P to below the level of 2012 in the alternative AS3 scenario, because AS3 assumes implementation of both improved nutrient management in agriculture and best available technologies for wastewater treatment. This is different for AS1 (effects of best available technologies) and AS2 (effects of improved nutrient management in agriculture) where the reduction effects vary among nutrient forms and sub-basins. Improving treatment of the wastewater (AS1) is effective to reduce future river export of DIP and DON, especially in the northern part of the lake. Implementing improved nutrient management in agriculture (AS2) is effective to reduce future river export of DIN and DOP from the middle and southern sub-basins. Forbidding mining activities (AS2) is simulated to reduce river export of DIP from individual sub-basins in the south. The results of this thesis show the effects of the improved nutrient management in agriculture and improved technologies for reducing future river export of nutrients to Lake Dianchi. Implementing both policies and improved technologies projects to reduce nutrient pollution of the lake to below the level of 2012. This is promising. Results show that it is possible to reduce 41% of the gap between the nutrient pollution in 2050 and the critical nutrient level to avoid eutrophication. These insights are useful for policy-makers to formulate effective policies to reduce eutrophication of the lake. TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1: Introduction ........................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background .................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Nutrient sources .......................................................................................................... 1 1.3 Policies and technologies ............................................................................................ 2 1.4 Modelling nutrient export ..........................................................................................
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