Scientists for Global Responsibility
Newsletter No. 28 November 2003 The Risk of Nuclear Terrorism
Frank Barnaby explores the ways in which terrorists could seek to use nuclear material. This paper was presented at the SGR Conference “Nuclear Weapons: Issues for UK Policy” in September (see p16). Mass killing by weapons of mass terrorists would probably prefer to set destruction may fit well into the off a nuclear explosive, perhaps using Armageddon and apocalyptic visions a stolen nuclear weapon or more of some religious groups, Christian likely using a nuclear explosive and Islamic, some of which believe fabricated by them from acquired that they are under divine instruction fissile material. Terrorists would be to maximise killing and destruction. satisfied with a nuclear explosive There is, therefore, clearly a danger, device that is far less sophisticated some would say an inevitability, that than the types of nuclear weapons terrorists will acquire, or develop and demanded by the military. Whereas fabricate, and use weapons of mass the military demand nuclear weapons destruction – chemical, biological or with predictable explosive yields and nuclear. very high reliability, most terrorists Plutonium would be satisfied with a relatively Recent experience - for example, the primitive nuclear explosive. use of nerve agents by the AUM group in Tokyo and the use of anthrax • attacking a nuclear-power reactor [continued on p8] in the USA - shows that terrorist to spread radioactivity far and biological and chemical weapons are wide; unpredictable and difficult to use effectively (i.e. to give a large number • attacking the high-level of casualties). Effective dispersal of radioactive waste tanks at a Contents both biological and chemical weapons reprocessing plant to spread the is difficult. This suggests that radioactivity in them; News from SGR 2 chemical and biological weapons will • attacking a plutonium store at a Elsewhere in the News 7 not well serve the purposes of the new reprocessing plant to spread the Articles terrorists. plutonium in it; To fulfil their aims, therefore, future Nuclear Weapons 10 • stealing or otherwise acquiring a Awareness Programme new terrorists are more likely to make nuclear weapon from the arsenal nuclear attacks than biological or of a nuclear-weapon power and An End to the UK’s 11 chemical ones. Nuclear attacks are not detonating it; and Nuclear Weapons only more likely to succeed but their Armageddon nature is likely to appeal • attacking, sabotaging or hijacking Stormy Times for 13 to fundamentalists. a transporter of nuclear weapons Climate Research or nuclear materials; and Nuclear terrorism Sociobiology of 14 • making and detonating a Vaccination There are number of nuclear terrorist radiological weapon, commonly Conference Reviews 16 activities that a terrorist group may called a dirty bomb, to spread become involved in: radioactive material. Book Reviews 17 • stealing or otherwise acquiring Apart from a dirty bomb, all of these Events 20 fissile material and fabricating types of nuclear terrorism have the and detonating a primitive potential to cause large, or quite large, nuclear explosive; numbers of deaths. Of them, nuclear
Scientists for Global Responsibility Newsletter, November 2003 • 1 News from SGR
A few words from the Director..
Stuart Parkinson The tragedy of the Iraq war struck jeopardised if he continued push such We've also highlighted some of the home to the scientific community a GM sceptic line on the panel. Again wider concerns on arms (see p4), with the suicide of Dr David Kelly, we find strong pressure being brought climate change (see p3), and science the UK's leading biological weapons to bear on scientists who are unwilling policy (see p6). We are making good expert, in July*. Dr Kelly had become to fall in with the prevailing political progress on our project embroiled in the Government battle and commercial thinking on an issue. 'Understanding the military influence with the BBC over the level of spin in on science and technology', which is These cases show yet again how its September dossier on Weapons of beginning to throw up some important important it is that powerful political Mass Destruction (WMD). The case is new data (see p5). Our publications and commercial interests which 'bend' an extreme example of the problems on ethical careers in science and scientific evidence to justify faced by scientists involved in work technology have proven to be even unpopular policies need to be with high political or commercial more popular over the past few challenged by concerned scientists stakes. months, and our work has attracted and citizens through organisations like some very positive media coverage. It is clear now, following the SGR. revelations from the Hutton inquiry Finally, you'll find with this issue SGR has continued to work across set up to examine the circumstances some inserts: these and other issues. On the leading to Dr Kelly's death, that his question of WMD, SGR's conference concerns (and those of SGR as • A few copies of SGR's new on 13th September saw two respected outlined in our briefing, 'Why the war membership and promotional commentators, Dr Frank Barnaby and on Iraq is a warning for the planet') leaflet. (We hope you like the Prof John Finney, speak on 'The risk about the way the Government was new eye-catching design!) Please of nuclear terrorism' and 'An end to using the evidence were justified. The give these to friends and the UK's nuclear weapons' threat from Iraq's WMD was indeed colleagues, or put them on a respectively - and articles based on being over-sold to justify a political noticeboard at your place of work their talks can be found on p1 and p11 decision, i.e. to go to war, that had or study - remember, non- SGR has also lent its support to the already been taken. scientists can also join SGR as 'Nuclear weapons awareness associate members. The parallels between this case and programme', a coalition of UK that of the GM science review panel, organisations which aims to make • A membership questionnaire. We which hit the headlines around the nuclear disarmament a high priority would like to your views on same time, are disturbing. In the latter political issue in the UK (see p10), SGR's activities and the services case, scientists Prof Carlo Leifert of and to the 'Biological weapons on offer to members, so please Newcastle University and Dr Andrew prevention project', an international fill this in and return it to the Stirling of Sussex University also coalition which is working towards SGR office. We intend to use the found themselves at odds with some the abolition of these weapons. responses to help improve SGR's powerful political and commercial effectiveness across all its work As part of the national 'GM Nation' interests. Prof Leifert resigned from areas. debate (which resoundingly came out the review panel in June feeling that
2•Scientists for Global Responsibility Newsletter, November 2003 SGR AGM 2003
Patrick Nicholson The AGM took place at the SGR increasing membership in order to National Co-ordinating Committee Conference at Friends House in capitalise on and expand SGR 2003-4 London on September 9th. activities was stressed, with members being asked to take away new SGR Chair Phil Webber Phil Webber (Acting Chair) opened promotional material and invite new Treasurer Jenny Nelson the AGM with brief comments about members to join. The election of the Secretary Tim Foxon major developments during the year. National Co-ordinating Committee Members Alan Cottey SGR now has a part time (50%) took place. All those standing were Patricia Hughes Executive Director and a part-time elected (see below). Patrick Nicholson (50%) researcher (Chris Langley). Eva Novotny The Administrator's part time post has Updates were then given on specific Vanessa Spedding been expanded from 40% to 50%. SGR activities including the ethical
Following acceptance of the minutes careers guide and briefings, and the of the previous AGM, the Annual research project on vested interests in
Report was presented to the meeting. science and technology. Chris
In addition to internal expansion, SGR Langley summarised some highlights has been increasingly active in terms from his research to date on the of conferences, lectures, website Military Influence project. presence, media-work, lobbying and
Climate Change and Energy
Stuart Parkinson August saw extreme temperatures take any serious action to reduce the The issues I've raised above continue across Europe, with England USA's huge greenhouse gas emissions to feature in SGR outputs on this recording its highest temperature despite spending tens of billions on topic. For example, in recent months since records began [1]. In France the the war in Iraq. Or the media could I've been able to raise these concerns heat was estimated to have caused at have focused on Russia dragging its in two of my presentations: 'The least 11,000 extra deaths [2]. Across feet over ratification of the Kyoto science and politics of climate change' Europe the conditions allowed major Protocol, and hence preventing the on a training course for Foreign forest fires to rage. Unsurprisingly treaty coming into legal force. Instead Office staff; and 'Tackling climate this sparked a discussion on whether much of the mainstream media change - the role of the engineer' at the cause of the extreme weather was decided to engage in a debate about the annual conference of the Women's global warming. The answer from whether global warming is really just Engineering Society. We shall most climate scientists, as on many due to changes in the Sun's output and continue to press the case for occasions before, was along the lines not greenhouse gases at all. While concerted action to tackle climate of 'we can't say for sure that this there are still some scientists who change. particular event has been caused by believe this - and it is important that
Scientists for Global Responsibility Newsletter, November 2003 • 3 Arms and Arms Control
Phil Webber Obviously the main activity over about the Government's justifications A New Arms Race? recent months in this area has been for the war were well-founded. Also, The US continued to test elements of our annual conference on ‘Nuclear it seems is clear now, following the its planned missile defence Weapons: Issues for UK Policy’ revelations from the Hutton inquiry programme and continued its efforts which is covered on p16. Chris set up to examine the circumstances to convince others to take on part of Langley’s work on the Military leading to Dr Kelly's death, that his the 'defensive' shield. Depressingly Influence project is another major concerns about the way the many states now seem to have area of activity that is covered Government was using the evidence decided that they would like to be part elsewhere (p5). were justified. The threat from Iraq's of this project - or at least they have WMD was indeed over-sold to justify In terms of my own activity, I was refused to rule themselves out. For a political decision, i.e. to go to war, invited to speak at the Conflict example, Japan, Russia and Australia. that had already been taken. In my Research Society annual meeting in There is also support from some view, the Hutton enquiry also September at Hoddesdon Hertforshire European countries. Meanwhile strengthens the case for a much wider- on the topic of the war in Iraq. I took China successfully tested a new multi- ranging enquiry into how the the opportunity to develop some warhead missile precisely what is Government presented, influenced thinking about so-called asymmetric needed to swamp a missile defence and used intelligence information. conflict - where one side is heavily system and Pakistan tested a new The only arguments that I have seen armed and in normal terms has rocket capable of carrying a nuclear that seem to hang together are that overwhelming military superiority warhead. North Korea announced Blair took a strategic decision to and where the other is engaging in that it had processed enough nuclear support the US hoping that the UN guerrilla activity or "low level" material to make 6 nuclear weapons. would fall into line later. In his conflict. The post Iraq situation is an Reports indicated that Saudi Arabia approach to Parliament he did not example of this type of conflict. I was considering obtaining nuclear trust it to approve going to war with used our Iraq briefing (see weapons. all the facts. He therefore had to put
4 • Scientists for Global Responsibility Newsletter, November 2003 Understanding the Military Influence on Science, Engineering and Technology
Chris Langley The project began in earnest on 1st the MoD, and the MoD employs 40% University Technology Centres July, and is looking at how the of Government scientists. The (UTCs) in UK universities which also military sector - both government Government has also been involve military work. bodies and defence corporations - responsibility for the setting up Over the next few months my goals shape and direct science, engineering (starting in 2000) of the Defence will be to uncover more of this and technology (SET). The main Technology Centres (DTCs) and secretive world, and also to compare focus of the work is the UK, but Towers of Excellence which are the funding of military research with evidence from other countries will collaborations between the MoD, sustainable and non-offensive also be included. military corporations and universities. research. The DTCs currently involve 9 Despite being less than open about its universities. If you would further information on activities, it is clear that the the project, or would like to help (e.g. Government, especially the Ministry The military corporations also have by researching the military links of of Defence, plays a major role in huge power. BAE systems, for your university), please contact me. fostering links between scientists, example, sells equipment in 130 engineers and the military. One third countries to the tune of £12 billion
Thinking About an Ethical Career in Science and Technology
Stuart Parkinson The high demand for SGR's ethical The popularity of the publications has However she will be back in the New careers material continues unabated! been helped by some very positive Year and in the meantime we are We've now distributed a total of 2000 media coverage with articles in The planning to release a fourth briefing, copies of our three 8-page briefings Times, The Guardian, Ethical 'Is your career sustainable?' by Phil (on climate change, cleaner Consumer, Next Wave (youth science Webber, as this newsletter goes to technology and animal experiments) e-magazine) and several other press. since their launch in March, with the science/ green publications. Also, in Copies of SGR's ethical careers majority being electronically September, I took part in a live debate material can, as ever, be downloaded downloaded from our web-site. The on BBC Radio Scotland on ethical from our web-site
GM Issues
Eva Novotny In June and July, a national debate concerned about effects on the Harrogate and a local event in was held on the future of GM crops in environment. Cambridge. SGR also (as already the United Kingdom. There were reported in the preceding Newsletter) Included in the public debate were three strands: an Economics Review, sent the results of our research on several official public meetings a Science Review and a public debate. pollen transport by wind to the around the country. Many cities and The last of these provided an Science Review. The GM Science towns organised their own debates, opportunity for the public voice to be Review First Report has since been then sent their results to the review heard: the results include the facts that published, and we have responded to body. SGR participated in a number only 8% of respondents were happy to the section dealing with pollen of such debates: the Director spoke at eat GM food, that 95% of respondents transport and separation distances a public meeting in Lancaster and the were concerned about contamination required between crops to prevent GM Co-ordinator spoke at of non-GM crops and that 91% were contamination at a given level. We Glastonbury and Poole, as well as subsequently sent an Annexe, which attending an official event at Scientists for Global Responsibility Newsletter, November 2003 • 5 essentially reproduced the sent a copy to Cumbria County GM scientists, which they had calculations on which separation Council. The letter encouraged them, addressed to Tony Blair and other distances for maize are based, in their forthcoming debates, to vote ministers. demonstrating the shortcomings of against allowing GM plants to be
Science Policy
Stuart Parkinson In July the Office of Science and size of the R&D budget of the the expense of issues such as human Technology released "The Forward Ministry of Defence (MoD). In health, environmental protection and Look 2003" (OST, 2003) which is a 2002/03 it jumped to £2.6 billion, a social justice. Again SGR's ongoing summary of current and planned real term increase of 23% over the research in this area is detailing some Government-funded science and previous year which brought it back of the problems. For more information technology, including the Research up to the average level of the 1990's. on this work, please contact Jon Councils. It adds detail to the SGR issued a press release Goulding
Population, Consumption and Values
Alan Cottey The Study Group continues to format for items is 'few line snippets' become a member of the Study publish, normally monthly, its preferable with a web link. Longer Group, and anyone, SGR member or electronic newsletter. As editor, I items may also be submitted and not, may be on the e-mailing list of welcome submitted items, especially considered for dissemination in the newsletter. on population, a subject that continues whatever outlet is judged most
6 • Scientists for Global Responsibility Newsletter, November 2003 Elsewhere in the News
Aid is becoming politicised Pakistan test fires missile France is also looking at developing “mini-nukes”. “Humanitarian aid is becoming Pakistan's military claims to have The cost of maintaining France’s dangerously politicized” says the fired a short-range ballistic missile nuclear capability absorbs 10% of its latest World Disaster Report. One capable of carrying nuclear warheads. £23 billion annual defence budget. major ethical concern is the selectivity The rocket was named as the surface- Many think the money would be of emergency aid. Relief peaked at to-surface ballistic missile Hatf-III better spent on conventional forces to US$ 5.9 billion in 2000, but its global Ghaznavi, with a claimed range of up meet the rising number of distribution reveals a political rather to 290km. humanitarian tasks. than moral geography. In 2000, the Pakistan said the timing of the test northern Caucasus received 89 per It is not yet clear how this new was based on the country's own cent of its UN appeal, Somalia only strategy will be viewed in Washington missile defence needs and had nothing 22 per cent. Aid per affected person – as another attempt to exclude the to do with developments in the region. varied from US$ 10 for Uganda to US from Europe’s defence or as a US$ 185 in south-eastern Europe. Tension with India has eased this year welcome recognition of the dangers of Within weeks of the fall of Saddam, after the two countries moved close to rogue states. US $ 1.7 billion had been raised in war in 2002. However, renewed Daily Telegraph 28/10/03 relief for Iraq, while less than half that violence in Kashmir has slowed had been pledged for 40 million progress on peace talks. “18 years of lies” from Iran over starving Africans. India dismissed the test as nothing nuclear plans World Disasters Report 2003 new.
(CAAT), a reputable Christian-based Guardian, 22/10/03 group. BAE paid £120,000 a year for Summaries by Patrick Nicholson this. France to aim nuclear arms at
“We cannot understand why anyone military strategy by targeting its would wish to do this as we are a very nuclear missiles on “rogue states” that open organisation.” have weapons of mass destruction. Sunday Times, 28/9/03
Scientists for Global Responsibility Newsletter, November 2003 • 7 The Risk of Nuclear Terrorism
[continued from front page] A primitive nuclear explosive It is a sobering fact that the and are, therefore, more attractive fabrication of a primitive nuclear targets than the reactor building. Terrorists could make a nuclear explosive using plutonium or highly- explosive from highly-enriched Terrorists could target a reactor or enriched uranium would require no uranium or plutonium. The most spent fuel pond by: using a truck greater skill than that required for the simple nuclear explosive uses the 'gun carrying high explosives and production and use of the nerve agent technique' in which a mass of exploding it near a critical part of the produced by the AUM group and set enriched uranium less than the critical target; exploding high explosives off in the Tokyo underground. mass is fired, down a gun barrel, for carried in a light aircraft near a critical example, into another less-than- Terrorist attack on a nuclear-power part of the target; crashing a high- critical mass of uranium. The sum of station jacked commercial airliner into the the two masses is greater than critical. reactor building or spent-fuel pond; Instead of exploding a nuclear When they join together a nuclear attacking the power station with small weapon, a terrorist group may decide explosion occurs. arms, artillery or missiles and to attack a nuclear facility. It is occupying it; or by attacking the Highly-enriched uranium is harder to generally recognised that a terrorist power lines carrying electricity into obtain than plutonium. Therefore, group with significant resources could the plant. terrorists may go for plutonium. The attack and damage a nuclear-power gun technique cannot be used to plant. There is argument, however, Alternatively, a terrorist group may assemble a super-critical mass of about how much damage and how infiltrate some of its members, or plutonium in a nuclear explosive many people would be harmed by sympathisers, into the plant to device; implosion must be used. The such an attack. It is probably true that sabotage it from inside. A saboteur implosion technique can, however, be attacks on nuclear-power plants that may attack, for example, the systems used to assemble a super-critical mass could do a great deal of damage and cooling the reactor core or drain water of highly enriched uranium. In a cause many fatalities have a relatively from the cooling pond. This could nuclear explosive using the implosion small chance of success. But many cause the temperature of the reactor design, a sphere of plutonium or believe that the damage caused by and core to rise, resulting in a release of highly-enriched uranium is the number of people killed by a radioactivity from the core, or cause surrounded by conventional high successful terrorist attack on a the temperature of the spent fuel rods explosives. nuclear-power plant could be so to rise, again resulting in a release of catastrophic that even a small risk of radioactivity. When exploded, the high explosive such an attack is not acceptable. uniformly compresses the sphere of Terrorist attacks on high-level fissile material. The compression There are two potential targets in a radioactive liquid waste tanks or reduces the volume of the sphere of nuclear-power station for a terrorist plutonium stores at Sellafield fissile material in the core and attack: the reactor itself and the ponds It is hard to think of a nuclear terrorist increases its density. The critical mass storing the spent fuel removed from attack which could, at least in theory, is inversely proportional to the square the reactor. An attack on the reactor be more catastrophic than a successful of the density. The original less-than- could cause the core to go super- attack on the tanks at Sellafield that critical mass of fissile material will, critical (as happened during the 1986 contain the liquid fission products after compression, become super- accident at the Chernobyl reactor) or separated from spent reactor fuel critical, and a fission chain reaction cause a loss of the coolant that elements by the two reprocessing and nuclear explosion will take place. removes heat from the core of the plants. reactor (as happened during the A small group of people with reactor accident at Three Mile Island). A major concern after the September appropriate skills could design and 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in New York fabricate a crude nuclear explosive. Spent fuel elements are normally kept and Washington is an attack on The size of the nuclear explosion from in storage ponds for five or ten years Sellafield in which a large such a crude nuclear device is under three or so metres of water commercial aircraft, such as a Boeing impossible to predict. But even if it before they are either finally disposed 747 carrying a full load of fuel, is were only equivalent to the explosion of in a geological repository or sent to dived from a high altitude into the of a few tens of tonnes of TNT it a reprocessing plant where the liquid high-level radioactive waste would completely devastate the centre plutonium inevitably produced in the (HLW) tanks. A fully laden jumbo-jet of a large city. Such a device would, fuel elements is chemically separated travelling at between 200 and 300 however, have a strong chance of from unused uranium and fission metres a second would have a very exploding with an explosive power of products in the fuel elements. The large momentum and the crash would at least a hundred tonnes of TNT. ponds are normally built close to the have a huge impact. In addition, the Even one thousand tonnes or more reactor building. The buildings aircraft may be carrying about 150 equivalent is possible, but unlikely. containing the spent fuel ponds are tonnes of aviation fuel and the crash less well protected than the reactor would create a very fierce fire. 8 • Scientists for Global Responsibility Newsletter, November 2003 Highly radioactive liquid waste, fission products arising from the operations of the two reprocessing plants at Sellafield, is stored in 21 water-cooled tanks. Normally, at any one time, fourteen of these tanks are full of liquid fission products; the other seven are kept empty in case it is necessary to empty some of the other tanks. So far as the contamination of the human environment and damage to human health are concerned, the most important radioisotope in the HLW tanks at Sellafield is caesium-137 (Cs- 137). Based on figures published by NIREX in 1998 inventory, the total amount of Cs-137 in the HLW tanks is about 1,980 kilograms. For comparison, the Chernobyl accident released about 25 kilograms of Cs- 137. Each HLW tank, therefore, holds Senator Curt Weldon holds a CIA mock-up of a nuclear suitcase bomb about 6 times the amount of Cs-137 as The conventional high explosive is The explosion of a dirty bomb could that released by the Chernobyl used to spread radioactive result in the contamination of an area accident. contamination. A radiological weapon of a city with radioactivity. According to figures given by the does not involve a nuclear explosion. Decontamination is likely to be very United Nations Scientific Committee Any radioisotope could be used in a costly (costing millions of pounds) on the Effects of Atomic Radiation dirty bomb. But the most likely one to and take weeks or, most likely, many (UNSCEAR), the exposure of people be used is one that is relatively easily months to complete. Radioactive to the radiation emitted by the Cs-137 available, has a relatively long half- contamination is the most threatening released during the Chernobyl life, and emits energetic gamma aspect of a dirty bomb. accident produced a worldwide radiation. Suitable ones include Measures to counter nuclear collective radiation dose of 600,000 caesium-137, cobalt-60, and iridium- terrorism person-sieverts over a period of 50 192. Strontium-90, which emits years. The number of fatal cancers electrons (beta particle) and is To effectively counter nuclear produced by the Chernobyl accident is concentrated in bone, is also a terrorism it is important to prevent 30,000. possible candidate. terrorists from acquiring fissile materials, plutonium and highly Scaling up the calculated Sellafield The detonation of a dirty bomb is enriched uranium, to fabricate a release to the Chernobyl accident unlikely to cause a significant number primitive nuclear explosive and from suggests that a terrorist attack on the of casualties. Generally, the explosion acquiring significant quantities of HLW tanks could result worldwide in of the conventional explosive would radioisotopes, particularly caesium- about 170,000 fatal cancers per tank. most likely cause any immediate 137, strontium-90 and cobalt-60, to Depending on the strength and deaths or serious injuries. The build a radiological weapon. The direction of the winds at the time of radioactive material in the bomb protection of these radioactive the release of the radioactivity, these would be dispersed into the air but materials is clearly of the utmost deaths will occur in the United would be soon diluted to relatively importance. There are literally Kingdom, Ireland and parts of Europe low concentrations. If the bomb is millions of radioactive sources used and perhaps even further afield. exploded in a city, as it almost worldwide in medicine, industry and certainly would be, some people are Terrorist use of a radiological agriculture; many of them could be likely to be exposed to a dose of weapon used to fabricate a dirty bomb. They radiation. But the dose is in most are often not kept securely. The simplest and most primitive cases likely to be relatively small. A terrorist nuclear device is a low-level exposure to radiation would Making existing nuclear-power radiological weapon or radiological slightly increase the long-term risk of reactors less vulnerable to terrorist dispersal device, commonly called a cancer. attack is not very feasible although ‘dirty bomb’. A "dirty bomb" would storage ponds for spent fuel elements The main potential impact of a dirty consist of a conventional high could be more effectively hardened. bomb is psychological – it would explosive – for example, semtex, And greater care could be taken to vet cause considerable fear, panic and dynamite or TNT, and a quantity of a staff to make it more difficult for a social disruption, exactly the effects radioisotope. terrorist group to infiltrate people into terrorists wish to achieve. The public a nuclear-power station. fear of radiation is very great indeed, some say irrationally so. Scientists for Global Responsibility Newsletter, November 2003 • 9 The protection of a nuclear facility including, for example, the use of national agencies are the keys to good with, for example, fighter aircraft or encryption, frustrating the efforts of counter-terrorism intelligence. surface-to-air missiles is, to say the SIGINT. The intelligence and security least, not an easy task. If a terrorist The penetration of new terrorist agencies, in their fight against the new group hijacks a commercial aircraft groups by undercover intelligence terrorism, face an awesome task that on a regular flight path that takes it agents or double agents (human will require the acquisition of any new close to, for example, the Sellafield intelligence or HUMINT) is, technological developments relevant establishment and dives it on to a therefore, of critical importance. In to counter-terrorist activities, a close target in the nuclear facility, the time fact, counter-terrorism is likely to study of new terrorist threats, and, available to make sure that the aircraft succeed only if HUMINT can be perhaps most importantly, an really is attacking the facility and then made effective. This is why it is, to imaginative approach to the issues. to scramble fighter aircraft or fire say the least, not going to be easy to surface-to-air missiles is probably too Dr Frank Barnaby is a nuclear defeat the new terrorists. short to make a successful physicist, a former Executive interception. Experience shows that setting up Secretary of the Pugwash effective intelligence activities against Conferences on Science and World The importance of good intelligence terrorist groups is extremely Affairs and currently works for the The importance of effective challenging. Rivalries between Oxford Research Group. intelligence in countering nuclear intelligence agencies within countries Further information and references terrorism cannot be over estimated. and lack of cooperation in intelligence can be found in Dr Barnaby's new Monitoring the communications of matters between countries seriously book "How to Build a Nuclear Bomb: terrorist groups – the activity known reduce the effectiveness of And Other Weapons of Mass as signal intelligence (SIGINT) – has intelligence. Effective and single Destruction"(Granta Books, been crucial to this end. Modern leadership of national agencies and September 2003, ISBN 1862076243) terrorists can, however, take steps to international cooperation between protect their communication systems,
Nuclear Weapons Awareness Programme
Samia Khan briefly describes a new project aiming to keep nuclear weapons issues in the public eye. SGR has recently lent its support to this initiative. Representatives of the organisations strategy, has a number of distinct particularly effective, and that others listed below have been working on a elements such as a proactive will be able to build on this approach. collaborative initiative for several electronic resource, communications Samia Khan is Project Worker for the months, based on an original with parliamentarians, curriculum NWAP suggestion by Noble Peace Laureate development and youth education, Professor Sir Joseph Rotblat who and large scale VIP events that will Collaborating Organisations in the voiced his concerns that our efforts bring together internationally NWAP over the years to convince the British recognised scientists and public that nuclear weapons are a celebrities/media personalities to • Abolition 2000 dangerous liability, not a national highlight the urgency of the issue. • Atomic Mirror security asset, have been largely Additionally, each collaborating • BASIC unsuccessful. organisation will participate in a way • British Pugwash Group that makes use of its own particular • CND We agreed that a national, and indeed expertise. By pooling our resources in • Greenpeace international, public information/ a coordinated manner, the Programme • MEDACT education programme was necessary promises to make best use of the • Movement for the Abolition of to raise awareness of the grave capabilities of the concerned War dangers of present nuclear weapons organisations. policies, and to shift public perception • Oxford Research Group towards the merits of approaches to Although the public awareness work • Pax Christi global and national security that do we plan to undertake will of necessity • Quaker Peace Social Witness UK not involve nuclear weapons. be primarily focussed on the UK • Student/Young Pugwash public, we believe that the outcomes • Youth and Student CND Following initial research into the of the work will impact more widely • World Court Project British public’s knowledge of and on the activities of similar attitudes towards nuclear weapons, organisations in the EU, US and the collaboration is developing an elsewhere. By undertaking a public extensive public awareness awareness programme that is founded programme for the UK. The on solidly-based research, we are programme, that will be underpinned hopeful that the results will be by a well-researched communications 10 • Scientists for Global Responsibility Newsletter, November 2003 An End to the UK’s Nuclear Weapons
In this article based on his presentation to the SGR conference, John Finney argues that a decision should be made now not to replace the UK’s Trident nuclear weapons Background: does Britain need the NPT review conference in 2000. submarines. Consequently, a decision nuclear weapons? to replace the Trident submarines will Current status of UK nuclear be needed this decade. In 1995, a British Pugwash Group weapons (BPG) report addressed the question Prospects for multilateral progress The UK nuclear weapons programme of whether Britain actually needs today is based entirely on Trident. It The UK Strategic Defence Review nuclear weapons. According to that consists of 4 British-built submarines (1998) made it clear that the UK study, British nuclear weapons have carrying up to 16 US D5 missiles each wishes to see mutual, balanced and had no detectable influence on the with up to 8 British-made warheads. verifiable reductions in nuclear course of events. They represent less At least one submarine is on patrol at weapons. A year later, George than 2% of the NATO arsenal, they any time. They patrol in a reduced Robertson set a lead through our have deterred no enemies, and no state of alert, with notice to fire policy of minimum deterrence. serious consideration has ever been periods of days, and missiles not given to their use in any war the UK The 2000 NPT Review commits states routinely targeted. has been involved in. It was never to “accomplish” disarmament but reasonable to think that the UK would The UK has a stockpile of less than lacks the timescale to give the process use nuclear weapons in circumstances 200 warheads, but there has been no any meaning and impetus. There have that the US would not. Consequently, explanation of why the UK military been setbacks such as proliferation in the conclusion was that British chose this number. It may relate to India and Pakistan (and, arguably, nuclear weapons could be dispensed ability to penetrate missile defences Iran and Korea), US development of with, not because the Cold War was around Moscow. Warhead yield is “missile defence” and the US Nuclear over, but because of their uselessness about 100 ktons, with a lower yield Posture Review 2002. The latter spells ever since their introduction. option available (1-5 ktons?). We out an intention to maintain large have no information about possible stockpiles and develop new low yield Nothing has happened since 1995 to sub-strategic use scenarios. weapons. Furthermore there has been alter the basis for the above a failure of states to sign or ratify the conclusion. UK nuclear weapons were The Trident system has an operational Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, and of no use during the cold war and now lifetime of 30 years, and this is the UN Conference on Disarmament they actually have a negative value - determined by the design life of the is moribund. All in all, there is little i.e. they present us with additional submarines. The warheads can be reason at present to expect significant risks in terms of accident possibility maintained indefinitely in service progress towards multilateral and attracting pre-emptive strikes. through a programme of inspection, disarmament. Their retention is an incentive for refurbishment and remanufacture at others to acquire nuclear weapons. Atomic Weapons Establishment Public opinion in the UK (AWE) Aldermaston. The missiles The UK is legally committed to In terms of public opinion the salience can be upgraded (a US programme nuclear disarmament under the terms of nuclear weapons has all but exists). However, unlike the US, the of the Non Proliferation Treaty, and disappeared over the last 15 years (see UK has never implemented any life this was unequivocally confirmed at figure below). When polled a extension programmes for the
Scientists for Global Responsibility Newsletter, November 2003 • 11 substantial majority favours Britain tritium will be produced or procured • reduce the UK military plutonium retaining nuclear weapons as long as after the Chapelcross nuclear facility stockpile to the minimum needed other keep them. However, a 1999 closes in 2005, and fundamentally to see out Trident, with the MORI poll showed that two-thirds of reassessing the role of AWE, ending surplus being placed under Britons would support Blair taking a warhead design and production. Work international safeguards lead in negotiations to remove nuclear at Aldermaston could be redirected, weapons worldwide. expanding current work on • AWE should no longer retain a verification and other aspects of arms warhead design and development UK policy options control. It could contribute to facility So what policy options exist for the initiatives aimed at enhancing the • AWE work should be redirected UK to move forward on the nuclear security of nuclear materials in towards certification, nuclear weapons question? The UK could Russia. Conversion of Aldermaston to arms control, non-proliferation disarm unilaterally now. Or it could a fully defensive role could have a and disarmament work intensify work towards multilateral positive impact comparable to the disarmament, by pressing for a fissile 1956 decision to halt development of • Consider realigning stewardship- material cut-off treaty, promoting No chemical and biological weapons at related science towards civil First Use as NATO policy, or by Porton Down. Another possibility research. encouraging moves towards global could be civil redeployment of the John Finney is Professor of Physics at fissile material protection, control and AWE facilities in areas such as high University College London and accounting. Redirection of AWE and energy physics, lasers, materials Treasurer of the British Pugwash BNFL resources could contribute to sciences etc. Finally, there is the Group. the latter. Unilaterally, the UK could option of simply closing AWE reduce warhead numbers and clarify Aldermaston. This article was prepared from Prof. the rationale behind the number Finney’s slides by Patrick Nicholson, Conclusions retained, or adopt a No First Use SGR newsletter editor. national policy. The UK government should decide For further information see the and announce that the UK will not On the other hand, the UK could British Pugwash Group report “An acquire a replacement for Trident decide now not the replace Trident end to the UK’s nuclear weapons” when its operational life expires about when its design life expires in 2020. published in 2002 and downloadable 20 years from now. This would establish a timetable to from
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12 • Scientists for Global Responsibility Newsletter, November 2003 Stormy Times for Climate Research
Clare Goodess explains the circumstances behind the resignation of half of the editorial board of the journal Climate Research How can the publication of one poor people had raised concerns over the paper in a scientific journal have review process. In all these cases, de caused the resignation of half the Freitas had had editorial members of its editorial board responsibility. (including the newly-appointed My main objective in raising the editor-in-chief) and have these concerns of myself and many others resignations had any effect? As one over the most recent paper was to try of the editors who resigned from to protect the reputation of the journal Climate Research at the end of July by focusing on the scientific rather 2003, these are some of the questions than the political issues. Though I that I am left pondering. was well aware of the deliberate The article in question (Soon and political use being made of the paper Baliunas, 2003) was published at the by Soon and Baliunas (well-known end of January 2003. It is in fact a ‘climate sceptics’) and others. Chris literature review of over 240 de Freitas has also published what can previously published studies of be regarded as ‘climate sceptic’ climate proxy records (such as tree views. rings, glaciers and ocean sediments) Eventually, however, Inter-Research covering the last 1000 years. It In the meantime, Hans von Storch recognised that something needed to contains some startling and (another Climate Research editor) and be done and appointed Hans von controversial conclusions, notably: myself had been receiving numerous Storch as editor-in-chief with effect “Across the world, many records unsolicited complaints and critiques from 1 August 2003. This would reveal that the 20th century is of the paper from many leading have marked a change from the probably not the warmest or a members of the international palaeo existing system, where each of the 10 uniquely extreme climatic period of and historical climatology editors works independently. Authors the last millennium’ and ‘Overall, the community. At the beginning of May can submit a manuscript to which ever 20th century does not contain the 2003, these had reached such a level of these editors they like. Hans warmest anomaly of the past that we raised the concerns with the drafted an editorial to appear in the millennium in most of the proxy editor who had processed the Soon next edition of Climate Research and records which have been sampled and Baliunas paper (Chris de Freitas) circulated it to all the other editors for world-wide.” and the publisher (Otto Kinne of comment. However, Otto Kinne then With conclusions like these, it is not Inter-Research). In response, de decided that Hans could not publish surprising that this paper (and a Freitas accused us of ‘a mix of a the editorial without the agreement of remarkably similar version published witch-hunt and the Spanish all of the editors. Since at least one of in Energy and Environment (Soon et Inquisition’. The publisher eventually the editors thought there was nothing al., 2003) attracted the attention of the asked to see the documentation wrong with the Soon and Baliunas White House administration. At least associated with the review of the paper, such an agreement was clearly one press release from the authors paper - which had apparently gone to never going to be obtained. In view deliberately fuelled this politisation of four reviewers none of whom had of this, and the intervention of the the paper and its conclusions. Internal recommended rejection. Otto Kinne publisher in editorial matters, Hans documents from the US concluded that the review process had understandably felt that he could not Environmental Protection Agency been properly conducted. take up the Editor-in-Chief position (EPA), now in the public domain, This left many of us somewhat and resigned four days before he was show that the Bush administration confused and still very concerned due to start his new position. I also attempted to get this paper cited in an about what had happened. The resigned as soon as I heard what had agency report on the state of the review process had apparently been happened. This turned out to be the environment. EPA staff members correct, but a fundamentally flawed day of Inofhe’s US senate committee blocked this by deleting all mention of paper had been published. These hearing and the news of the two climate change from the report. This flaws are described in an extended resignations was announced at the did not stop the anti-Kyoto lobby, rebuttal to both Soon and Baliunas hearing . Since then, another three however, and the Republican Senator (2003) and Soon et al. (2003) editors have resigned. James Inofhe from Oklahoma called a published by Mike Mann and 11 other So Climate Research (CR) has lost hearing of the Senate environment eminent climate scientists in July half of its editors and the five committee in late July to debate the (Mann et al., 2003). Hans von Storch remaining include Chris de Freitas. paper. and I were also aware of three earlier The latest twist in this story is an Climate Research papers about which Scientists for Global Responsibility Newsletter, November 2003 • 13 editorial by Otto Kinne in August’s The last few months have also taught – not proxy climate records, the topic edition of the journal (Kinne, 2003) me quite a lot at first hand about the that has caused such a storm. which cites the two conclusions of highly sensitive and political nature of Clare Goodess is a Senior Research Soon and Baliunas quoted earlier in the climate-change debate in the US. Associate in the Climatic Research this article and then states that “While Though I have been quite impressed Unit, University of East Anglia, where these statements may be true, the with some of the media coverage of she has worked since 1982. critics point out that they cannot be the whole affair. I had fairly lengthy concluded convincingly from the interviews with reporters from the References evidence provided in the paper. CR Wall Street Journal and The Chronicle Kinne, O., 2003: Climate Research: an article should have requested appropriate of Higher Education amongst others. unleashed worldwide storms. Climate revisions of the manuscript prior to The latter article in particular gives a Research, 24, 197-198. publication.’. very balanced and well-researched Mann, M.E., Ammann, C.M., Bradley, R.S., account of events. Briffa, K.R., Crowley, T.J., Jones, P.D., I will be watching Climate Research Oppenheimer, M., Osborn, T.J., Overpeck, J.T., with interest over the coming months Some journalists are digging even Rutherford, S., Trenberth, K.E. and Wigley, to see whether there are any changes deeper – into the sources of Soon and T.M.L., 2003: On past temperatures and in editorial practice and/or in the Baliunas’s funding. Their Climate anomalous late-20th century warmth. EOS, 84, 256. editorial appointments. Otto Kinne Research paper includes has published fairly extensively on the acknowledgements to NOAA, NASA Soon, W. and Baliunas, S., 2003: Proxy climatic and environmental changes of the past nature and quality of the science and the US Air Force, as well as to the 1000 years. Climate Research, 23, 89-110. review process – though from a rather American Petroleum Institute. Yet theoretical perspective. My NOAA flatly deny having ever funded Soon, W., Baliunas, S., Idso, C., Idso, S. and Legates, D.R. 2003. Reconstructing climatic experience over the last few months the authors for such work, while the and environmental changes of the past 1000 has been that practice does not always other two bodies admit to funding years: A reappraisal. Energy and Environment, meet theory. them, but for work on solar variability 14, 233-296.
The Sociobiology of Vaccination
Peter Nicholls explores public and personal responsibility in acceptance or rejection of the MMR vaccine For over 200 years it has been State thereby escapes responsibility MMR vaccination and autism and generally accepted that vaccination for public hygiene); and (vi) freedom bowel syndromes include both (1) protects the individual against of choice (no compulsion in medical medical (pathological, individual) and smallpox in the community. Yet treatment). epidemiological (global, societal) public acceptance of smallpox arguments; his use of statistics in vaccination, especially for children, emphasising public trends rather than was quite slow in coming, even individual risks echoes Wallace. against that hideous and dangerous Several web sites (cf. 8) offer advice disease. Why? The antivaccination that counters the bland official league was one of the strongest social denials. Governmental responses (cf. movements in late Victorian England, 9) raise the question of freedom of with many resisters fined or even choice again, as did 19th. century imprisoned for refusing vaccination vaccination acts. Are other diseases for their children (2). It recruited on the increase: asthma, autism and some famous supporters, most notably allergies? Are they, as Wallace would George Bernard Shaw (3) and most have argued, examples of niche significantly Alfred Russel Wallace Wallace showed that communities replacement? And if so, are they (4). embracing vaccination programmes linked to vaccination programmes? were statistically often more Wallace's arguments were based susceptible to smallpox attacks than Risk and benefit must always be a upon: (i) ideas about the organisation those who took alternative matter of personal calculation. of the living world (a "use for prophylactic measures. Eventually, Measles is an unpleasant disease but microbes in the scheme of life"); (ii) after a series of Royal Commissions not in the same league as smallpox. statistics (emphasising overall trends (5), to which he contributed (6), The Figure shows the decline in rather than differences between compulsion was abolished. My measles in the first three-quarters of vaccinated and unvaccinated - with parents, followers of Shaw, refused the 20th. century in the USA. The use legal compulsion it paid the infected me smallpox vaccination as a child. of this figure (in earlier linear to claim vaccination, and conversely, versions) by an independent web site with reputation to consider, it paid Today combined vaccination of (8) querying the official position on doctors to deny it); (iii) medicine children against mumps, measles and MMR, is strikingly reminiscent of (generalised vaccinia); (iv) evolution rubella (MMR) is analogously Wallace's use of global statistics. (niche replacement between criticised. Wakefield's strongly Some conclusions are clear - an early microorganisms); (v) politics (the opposed claims (7) for a link between 20th. century biennial oscillation of
14 • Scientists for Global Responsibility Newsletter, November 2003 measles outbreaks already died down vaccines are also of benefit to the References by the 1960's, before general medical sector of society, directly in 1. Jenner, E. (1798) Inquiry into the Causes and vaccination started. More strikingly, the case of pharmaceutical companies, Effects of the Variolae Vaccinae (London). measles mortality, serious in the early indirectly in the case of medical 2. ------(1875) Return; Vaccination Act 1867. 20th. century, declined steeply prior professionals. But the benefit(s) to the House of Commons, London. to such programmes and is unaffected actual or prospective vaccinee are less 3. Shaw, G. B. (1906,1915) The Doctors' by them. Vaccination had its greatest clear. Dilemma, Preface. effect in diminishing occurrence of Vaccination against smallpox (11) 4. Wallace, A. R. (1889) Vaccination Proved the disease to almost zero after it had was certainly not risk free. MMR Useless & Dangerous: From Forty-Five Years already fallen to very low levels. vaccination possibly involves some Of Registration Statistics E. W. Allen, 4 Ave Maria Lane London Calculation of risk - of disease and of risk. The most advantageous personal medicine (iatrogenic) - is not easy. It strategy, and a fortiori the strategy to 5. --- (1898) A Report on Vaccination and its results, based on the evidence taken by the will differ between common and adopt in protecting one's offspring, is Royal Commission during the years 1889-1897. uncommon diseases; between lethal therefore to try to remain Vol. I (text). New Sydenham Society, London. and non-lethal diseases; between unvaccinated amidst a vaccinated herd 6. Wallace, A. R. (1890) Testimony in Third general (infectious) and local - the 'defector' strategy of game Report of the Royal Commission appointed to (contagious) diseases; and between theoreticians, cf. (11). The advantage inquire into the subject of Vaccination, pp. 6- diseases threatening everyone and depends upon the several risks as well 35, 121-131. H. M. Stationery Office, Eyre & those threatening only a specific as the strategy followed by the herd Spottiswood, London. subgroup. One of the mistakes that itself. In the UK the take-up of the 7. A J Wakefield, S H Murch, A Anthony, J may have been made in combining the MMR vaccine by parents hovers at Linnell, D M Casson, M Malik, M Berelowitz, A P Dhillon, M A Thomson, P Harvey, A three vaccines was the inclusion of the 85-90% level, too low, say Valentine, S E Davies, & J A Walker-Smith anti-rubella as part of the package. epidemiologists, to control the spread (1998) Ileal-lymphoid-nodular hyperplasia, Previously given only to girls and of the diseases but interestingly non-specific colitis, and pervasive women of child-bearing age, the somewhere near the Nash equilibrium developmental disorder in children. The Lancet, disease is really only a threat to a strategies for the system with 351, 637-641. foetus and not to children or adults. A reasonable values for the payoffs. 8. Mintz, S. (2003) "Vaccination News" web sink of rubella therefore remained site. Reluctance to allow medical treatment < http://www.vaccinationnews.com/> amongst boys; they are being asked to of one's children, however slight the accept immunisation against 9. D. M. Salisbury & N. T. Begg (1996) evidence for danger, is undoubtedly something that does not threaten them Immunisation against Infectious linked unconsciously to other but another social group. Disease: Edward Jenner Bicentenary Edition strategies involving social cooperation (The Green Book). London: HMSO. We, selfishly, make calculations of and defection in our evolutionary past. 10. Gandon, S., Mackinnon, M., Nee, S. & benefits for ourselves. Parents, more There are inevitable tensions between Read, A. (2003) Imperfect vaccination: some altruistically, make such calculations morality, politics and biology in epidemiological and evolutionary for their children. MMR vaccine is a assessing risk informally and socially, consequences. Proc. Roy. Soc. B 270, 1129- benefit to society although even here as well as formally and technically. 1136. the possibility of partial immune The official world, alas, never seems 11. Bauch, C. T., Galvani, A. P., & Earn, D. J. protection encouraging appearance of to understand this. D. (2003) Group interest versus self-interest in resistant pathogen strains is a matter smallpox vaccination policy. Proc. Nat. Acad. Peter Nicholls, is at the Department Sci. 100, 19564-10567. for the authorities as well as the of Biological Sciences, University of individual (10). MMR and other Essex.
Measles statistics: USA 1912-1984. Semi-log plot;.replotted from ref. (8).
Scientists for Global Responsibility Newsletter, November 2003 • 15 Conference Reviews secure in the UK, this is not the case Barnaby and Prof. Finney. The close Nuclear Weapons: in the former Soviet Union. There relationship between the UK and the may therefore be arguments for using USA was brought up, and the fact that Issues for UK Policy up this stockpiled Russian fissile UK nuclear weapons to some extent material in MOX fuel. “shore up” US weapons, whilst the UK is technically dependent on the Scientists for Global Responsibility In response to a question about small US for its nuclear deterrent. Another Conference and AGM. nuclear weapons, Dr Barnaby pointed facet to this relationship is that the US out that these have long existed (e.g. Friends House, London, 13 is probably the only state capable of nuclear artillery) but the new weapons September 2003. posing a real threat to UK Trident offer greater accuracy and submarines on patrol. Stuart Parkinson, Director of SGR, penetration. opened the conference with a few There were concerns on the relevance Concerns were voiced about colluding words on the relevance of the of focussing on Trident when nuclear in generating an atmosphere of public conference theme in the context of capable cruise missiles can be fired fear rather than addressing the root ongoing world events. from just about any vessel. The causes of terrorism. We should government could ditch Trident but Frank Barnaby on nuclear become more sophisticated about the introduce new systems, possibly dual terrorism politics of the imagination. One use systems such as long range contributor thought that making a Frank Barnaby then spoke on the Risk missiles. Prof. Finney reiterated that nuclear weapon involved a great deal of Nuclear Terrorism. Dr Barnaby is a we should still consider what concrete of tacit knowledge that would be nuclear physicist, a former Executive steps can be taken now here in the beyond a terrorist’s grasp. Dr Barnaby Secretary of the Pugwash Conferences UK. In the context of the Non countered that, based on his and currently works for the Oxford Proliferation Treaty, he felt that the experience, creating a primitive Research Group. The full text of his decision not to replace Trident was implosion-based nuclear weapon talk appears elsewhere in this the way to go. newsletter (see p1), so will only be would not be difficult. He pointed out very briefly summarised here. that SGR was founded on ideas of Other points discussed included openness, and his attitude was to be worries about the non-proliferation Dr Barnaby outlined reasons for honest about the facts. issue being moved from an arms- supposing that terrorists may try to control and verification agenda John Finney on the UK’s nuclear develop nuclear, as opposed to towards a neo-conservative agenda of weapons biological and chemical, attacks. He military intervention and how SGR described a range of possible John Finney, Professor of Physics at could best contribute to progress scenarios for terrorist use of nuclear UCL and Treasurer of the British towards nuclear disarmament. and radiological weapons. Finally Dr Pugwash Group (BPG), gave a talk Another further comment was that the Barnaby discussed steps that could be entitled "An End to the UK's Nuclear International Atomic Energy Agency taken to counter nuclear terrorism, Weapons" based on the report of the reports to the Security Council on concluding that effective intelligence same name published by the BPG in proliferating states but not on states was of the greatest importance. His 2002. Again the talk is the subject of failing to honour their commitment to belief, however, was that terrorism an article elsewhere in the newsletter disarm under article VI of the NPT. It was impossible to prevent if the (p11), and will not be described in was suggested that we also need to terrorists were determined enough, details here. In essence, Prof. Finney focus on the Comprehensive Test Ban and that society should be prepared to argued that the government should Treaty, a key arena in terms of absorb attacks. decide now not to replace Trident redirecting scientific work, as well as when its design life expires in 2020. Questions from the floor followed, looking at the NPT. Prof. Finney This would be a useful and realistic and included several contributions on stated again that the focus of his talk step forward. He also suggested a the topic of the risks in the UK's was the NPT. export of mixed oxide (MOX) fuel number of additional steps the given its potential as a "dirty bomb" government should take including Following a short break, the SGR or as a source of plutonium for justifying warhead numbers, reducing AGM took place (see p3). After the nuclear weapons. Export of MOX military plutonium stockpiles, AGM the conference was brought to a contradicts stated government policy redirecting Atomic Weapons close by Stuart Parkinson who to reduce risks from nuclear terrorism, Establishment (AWE) Aldermaston thanked the all the speakers and and could be an important issue for towards arms control and verification participants for their contributions. work, and working towards a SGR to take up. Patrick Nicholson multilateral "no first use" agreement. Whilst plutonium and enriched uranium stockpiles are relatively Questions were then taken by both Dr
16 • Scientists for Global Responsibility Newsletter, November 2003 Book Reviews document having been submitted or, CAAT, should be a reference item on Regime Unchanged: as indeed it was, sidelined by the US. all peacenik bookshelves. It is There were quite a few mass media however unpleasant to read, not why the war on Iraq hits but only from around 7 March because it is poorly written, it is not; changed nothing reporting that Blix was ready to but the subject matter requires a submit the DWP document. strong stomach. It describes the countries and companies involved in Milan Rai predicts that the document Milan Rai the arms trade, as exemplified by the "will be effectively erased from recent arms fair in East London. As Pluto, 2003, 256pp, £10.99, ISBN 0 history, and relegated to the peripheral well as the usual information, 7453 2199 2 realm of footnotes and obscure presented clearly and quantitatively, specialist studies." In a later section, Here is a near-instant book which I there are nuggets new to this reviewer, pages 119 - 20, Milan, concurring think is nevertheless, in the few e.g. the two levels of invitees, the with ideas of Orwell and Chomsky, months since publication, well on its "gold" list invited by the UK discusses how effective can be the way to being vindicated by history. government (MOD), and the "silver" burying of accurate information under list invited by the private fair The book's radical scepticism about a mass of misrepresentation. I think organisers, appropriately named every aspect of the US-UK war that a good example of this kind of Spearhead. Israel, Croatia and the propaganda continually becomes more erasure is the public perception of the Ukraine, not invited by the MOD, orthodox. The case is set out in detail, reasons why the US dropped atomic were on the private list. A select few, with over 1000 references and notes. bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. such as Indonesia, have dropped off Such distortion in the case of the 2003 Just one section did puzzle me. A both lists. But most Middle Eastern war on Iraq is, in my opinion, much chapter called The Censored and African countries are happily less likely to succeed and indeed is Document refers to the Draft Work included. Tony Blair, like previous already being exposed widely, partly Programme, submitted by Hans Blix, PMs, goes from country to country indeed due to Milan Rai's own head of the UN Monitoring trying to sell British weapons. He does writings. Verification and Inspection it, he says, to support British Commission (UNMOVIC) to the UN And in his Introduction, Milan does manufacturing; attempts to sell Security Council on 17 March 2003. express qualified optimism about the spectrophotometers are rarer, despite This document sets out the key global anti-war movement, pointing the fact that medical equipment may unresolved disarmament issues and out, for example, that it "helped to lay be a bigger potential market than lists those tasks that would have to be the basis for a stronger movement arms. But the latter has one advantage; achieved for Iraq to be declared better able to prevent the next war." I it is about power. Cluster bombs are disarmed. Rai argues that the DWP consider this book to be part of that just symbols. Look at these lists; sense was "potentially pivotal" and the basis and I hope that many people will the mountain we have to climb. submission "an event that could have use it. I am going to register my copy Peter Nicholls changed the course of history". Wow, with www.BookCrossing.com and this is important, let's see the basis for give it to a friend. I hope to find, a few this assessment. Oddly, despite the years hence, that it has become a well- generally detailed referencing, there is travelled peace activist. The South African no reference - that I could find - which Deal: A Case Study in serves as source for this claim. Milan Alan Cottey goes on to refer to "this explosive yet the Arms Trade. virtually unknown document". Now, if it is only virtually unknown, surely we DSEi 2003: Campaign Against the Arms Trade, deserve a reference so that we, if we International Arms June 2003, 28pp, ISBN 0 9543329 3 are assiduous, can decide for 8 (other details as above) ourselves how explosive this Market document really is. I did check the South Africa achieved democracy in a bloodless revolution, which delighted web and within seconds found about Campaign Against the Arms Trade but surprised many of us who had 150 hits which were exactly relevant. (CAAT), 2003, 44pp, ISBN 0 followed that country's politics during The results are instructive. The DWP 9543329 3 8 document itself is easily available in the apartheid era. What we did not full from numerous UN pages. There £3 postage inc. from CAAT 11 fully recognise were the costs of that is a lot of commentary but it is wholly Goodwin St. London N4 3HQ or success, the internal trade-offs needed - as far as I could see from a fairly downloadable (free) from to avoid violence. The old South quick perusal - from anti-war NGO
Vigil Calling for the Release of Mordechai Vanunu You can become a member of SGR if you are a scientist Noon - 2.00 p.m., outside Israeli Embassy in London (jn. in the broad meaning of the word. Our members include of Kensington High St and Kensington Court). Organised biologists, chemists, engineers, geographers, by the Campaign to Free Vanunu and for a Nuclear Free mathematicians, physicists, psychologists, sociologists, Middle East. students, teachers and people working in electronics and computing. Tel: 020 7378 9324 Email: [email protected]
Website: www.vanunu.freeserve.co.uk If you agree with SGR's aims and want to support our work, but are not a scientist, you are invited to become an 3 December 2003 associate member. Contaminated without Consent Rachel Carson Memorial Lecture given by Sandra I enclose an annual membership subscription of £.... Steingraber at the Prince’s Foundation, 19-20 Charlotte I enclose an annual associate subscription of £.... Rd, London EC2A 3SG, 6.30pm for cocktails, £25. Organised by Pesticide Action Network UK. Rates: Tel: 020 7274 8895 £7.50 unwaged (minimum) Email: [email protected] £12.50 low waged 5 December 2003 £25 waged Strategic Nonviolence in an Age of Terror ... or 0.1% of annual income, if preferred Public lecture by Michael Randle (Dept. of Peace Studies, Brighton) at the Centre for Human Ecology, 12 Roseneath I enclose a donation of £.... Place, Edinburgh EH9 1JB, 18:00-19:30. (Please make cheques payable to Scientists for Global Tel: 0131 624 1972 Responsibility) Email: [email protected] Please send me information on how taxpayers can 5 – 6 December 2003 increase the value of donations Working for a peaceful future: Resisting the never- ending "War on Terrorism" Name ...... Address ...... Network for Peace Conference at Friends House in London...... Postcode ...... Telephone...... Tel: 020 7278 3267 Email ...... Email: [email protected] Website: www.networkforpeace.org.uk Signature ...... Date...... How did you hear about SGR? ...... 16 January 2004 Corporate Accountability and Environmental Justice Scientists for Public lecture by Duncan McClaren (Chief Executive, Friends of the Earth Scotland) at the Centre for Human Global Responsibility Ecology (address and contact details above), 18:00-19:30. PO Box 473, If you are attending any of these events, don't forget to take along a few SGR leaflets etc. Folkestone, Kent, CT20 1GS. This edition of the Newsletter was edited by Patrick Tel: 07 771 883 696 Nicholson. The opinions expressed within do not E-mail: [email protected] necessarily represent those of SGR. Web site: http://www.sgr.org.uk/ Please send contributions for the newsletter to
20 • Scientists for Global Responsibility Newsletter, November 2003