Scientists for Global Responsibility Newsletter No. 28 November 2003 The Risk of Nuclear Terrorism Frank Barnaby explores the ways in which terrorists could seek to use nuclear material. This paper was presented at the SGR Conference “Nuclear Weapons: Issues for UK Policy” in September (see p16). Mass killing by weapons of mass terrorists would probably prefer to set destruction may fit well into the off a nuclear explosive, perhaps using Armageddon and apocalyptic visions a stolen nuclear weapon or more of some religious groups, Christian likely using a nuclear explosive and Islamic, some of which believe fabricated by them from acquired that they are under divine instruction fissile material. Terrorists would be to maximise killing and destruction. satisfied with a nuclear explosive There is, therefore, clearly a danger, device that is far less sophisticated some would say an inevitability, that than the types of nuclear weapons terrorists will acquire, or develop and demanded by the military. Whereas fabricate, and use weapons of mass the military demand nuclear weapons destruction – chemical, biological or with predictable explosive yields and nuclear. very high reliability, most terrorists Plutonium would be satisfied with a relatively Recent experience - for example, the primitive nuclear explosive. use of nerve agents by the AUM group in Tokyo and the use of anthrax • attacking a nuclear-power reactor [continued on p8] in the USA - shows that terrorist to spread radioactivity far and biological and chemical weapons are wide; unpredictable and difficult to use effectively (i.e. to give a large number • attacking the high-level of casualties). Effective dispersal of radioactive waste tanks at a Contents both biological and chemical weapons reprocessing plant to spread the is difficult. This suggests that radioactivity in them; News from SGR 2 chemical and biological weapons will • attacking a plutonium store at a Elsewhere in the News 7 not well serve the purposes of the new reprocessing plant to spread the Articles terrorists. plutonium in it; To fulfil their aims, therefore, future Nuclear Weapons 10 • stealing or otherwise acquiring a Awareness Programme new terrorists are more likely to make nuclear weapon from the arsenal nuclear attacks than biological or of a nuclear-weapon power and An End to the UK’s 11 chemical ones. Nuclear attacks are not detonating it; and Nuclear Weapons only more likely to succeed but their Armageddon nature is likely to appeal • attacking, sabotaging or hijacking Stormy Times for 13 to fundamentalists. a transporter of nuclear weapons Climate Research or nuclear materials; and Nuclear terrorism Sociobiology of 14 • making and detonating a Vaccination There are number of nuclear terrorist radiological weapon, commonly Conference Reviews 16 activities that a terrorist group may called a dirty bomb, to spread become involved in: radioactive material. Book Reviews 17 • stealing or otherwise acquiring Apart from a dirty bomb, all of these Events 20 fissile material and fabricating types of nuclear terrorism have the and detonating a primitive potential to cause large, or quite large, nuclear explosive; numbers of deaths. Of them, nuclear Scientists for Global Responsibility Newsletter, November 2003 • 1 News from SGR A few words from the Director.. Stuart Parkinson The tragedy of the Iraq war struck jeopardised if he continued push such We've also highlighted some of the home to the scientific community a GM sceptic line on the panel. Again wider concerns on arms (see p4), with the suicide of Dr David Kelly, we find strong pressure being brought climate change (see p3), and science the UK's leading biological weapons to bear on scientists who are unwilling policy (see p6). We are making good expert, in July*. Dr Kelly had become to fall in with the prevailing political progress on our project embroiled in the Government battle and commercial thinking on an issue. 'Understanding the military influence with the BBC over the level of spin in on science and technology', which is These cases show yet again how its September dossier on Weapons of beginning to throw up some important important it is that powerful political Mass Destruction (WMD). The case is new data (see p5). Our publications and commercial interests which 'bend' an extreme example of the problems on ethical careers in science and scientific evidence to justify faced by scientists involved in work technology have proven to be even unpopular policies need to be with high political or commercial more popular over the past few challenged by concerned scientists stakes. months, and our work has attracted and citizens through organisations like some very positive media coverage. It is clear now, following the SGR. revelations from the Hutton inquiry Finally, you'll find with this issue SGR has continued to work across set up to examine the circumstances some inserts: these and other issues. On the leading to Dr Kelly's death, that his question of WMD, SGR's conference concerns (and those of SGR as • A few copies of SGR's new on 13th September saw two respected outlined in our briefing, 'Why the war membership and promotional commentators, Dr Frank Barnaby and on Iraq is a warning for the planet') leaflet. (We hope you like the Prof John Finney, speak on 'The risk about the way the Government was new eye-catching design!) Please of nuclear terrorism' and 'An end to using the evidence were justified. The give these to friends and the UK's nuclear weapons' threat from Iraq's WMD was indeed colleagues, or put them on a respectively - and articles based on being over-sold to justify a political noticeboard at your place of work their talks can be found on p1 and p11 decision, i.e. to go to war, that had or study - remember, non- SGR has also lent its support to the already been taken. scientists can also join SGR as 'Nuclear weapons awareness associate members. The parallels between this case and programme', a coalition of UK that of the GM science review panel, organisations which aims to make • A membership questionnaire. We which hit the headlines around the nuclear disarmament a high priority would like to your views on same time, are disturbing. In the latter political issue in the UK (see p10), SGR's activities and the services case, scientists Prof Carlo Leifert of and to the 'Biological weapons on offer to members, so please Newcastle University and Dr Andrew prevention project', an international fill this in and return it to the Stirling of Sussex University also coalition which is working towards SGR office. We intend to use the found themselves at odds with some the abolition of these weapons. responses to help improve SGR's powerful political and commercial effectiveness across all its work As part of the national 'GM Nation' interests. Prof Leifert resigned from areas. debate (which resoundingly came out the review panel in June feeling that <[email protected]> against the commercialisation of GM the gaps in the evidence supporting *SGR issued a statement on David Kelly's case crops) SGR speakers spoke at three of GM agriculture were not being given on 24th July, which is available on our web-site the local debates and made a due attention because of industry bias at <http://www.sgr.org.uk/press/DavidKelly_ submission to the GM science review 24jul03.htm>. Paper copies can be obtained on the panel. Meanwhile Dr Stirling (see p5). from the SGR office. was privately warned that future funding of his research would be 2•Scientists for Global Responsibility Newsletter, November 2003 SGR AGM 2003 Patrick Nicholson The AGM took place at the SGR increasing membership in order to National Co-ordinating Committee Conference at Friends House in capitalise on and expand SGR 2003-4 London on September 9th. activities was stressed, with members being asked to take away new SGR Chair Phil Webber Phil Webber (Acting Chair) opened promotional material and invite new Treasurer Jenny Nelson the AGM with brief comments about members to join. The election of the Secretary Tim Foxon major developments during the year. National Co-ordinating Committee Members Alan Cottey SGR now has a part time (50%) took place. All those standing were Patricia Hughes Executive Director and a part-time elected (see below). Patrick Nicholson (50%) researcher (Chris Langley). Eva Novotny The Administrator's part time post has Updates were then given on specific Vanessa Spedding been expanded from 40% to 50%. SGR activities including the ethical Following acceptance of the minutes careers guide and briefings, and the of the previous AGM, the Annual research project on vested interests in Report was presented to the meeting. science and technology. Chris In addition to internal expansion, SGR Langley summarised some highlights has been increasingly active in terms from his research to date on the of conferences, lectures, website Military Influence project. presence, media-work, lobbying and <[email protected]> research. The importance of Climate Change and Energy Stuart Parkinson August saw extreme temperatures take any serious action to reduce the The issues I've raised above continue across Europe, with England USA's huge greenhouse gas emissions to feature in SGR outputs on this recording its highest temperature despite spending tens of billions on topic. For example, in recent months since records began [1]. In France the the war in Iraq. Or the media could I've been able to raise these concerns heat was estimated to have caused at have focused on Russia dragging its in two of my presentations: 'The least 11,000 extra deaths [2]. Across feet over ratification of the Kyoto science and politics of climate change' Europe the conditions allowed major Protocol, and hence preventing the on a training course for Foreign forest fires to rage.