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Is It Time for a Paradigm Shift in How Antarctic Tourism Is Controlled?

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Is It Time for a Paradigm Shift in How Antarctic Tourism Is Controlled? POLAR PERSPECTIVES No. 1 l July 2020 Tourists visiting Antarctica now have a wide variety of activities to choose from, including kayaking, wildlife watching, climbing, and camping overnight on shore. All photos courtesy of author. © Peter Carey Is it time for a paradigm shift in how Antarctic tourism is controlled? Peter W. Carey, Polar Institute Global Fellow Until the recent coronavirus pandemic upended is not new — calls for tighter controls on Antarctic the world’s economy and gutted global tourism, tourism have been made whenever visitor numbers Antarctica was an increasingly popular tourist took a big step up (e.g., Enzenbacher 1992, Liggett destination. A record high of about 74,000 people et al. 2011, Jabour 2013). In response to these calls, made the expensive trip there in the most recent the largely self-managed industry has adjusted how it summer season (November 2019-March 2020). This operates in the Far South. This has helped protect the is a 32 percent increase from the previous record environment, while allowing the industry to remain in high, set just one year before (IAATO 2020). The vast charge of its own commercial destiny. However, this majority of these visitors went only to the northern latest huge increase feels different, as if this step- end of the Antarctic Peninsula, traveling by cruise ship up in numbers is finally so big that it simply cannot from ports in South America. With the big increase in be accommodated by adjusting ship schedules and visitor numbers has come increasing concern for the juggling itineraries. With the pandemic forcing a environmental impacts of these tours. This concern pause in the upward trajectory of visitor numbers, is it time for a paradigm shift from visitor management CURRENT MANAGEMENT SCHEME to tourism regulation in Antarctica? Tourism, along with all other human activities in A HOT DESTINATION Antarctica, is currently governed by a suite of international agreements that collectively form To date, the number of tourists going to Antarctica the Antarctic Treaty System (ATS). Ship-based has been solely determined by market forces. tourism, which accounts for 99 percent of all That is, pretty much anyone with the desire, and Antarctic tourism, is also indirectly controlled enough money, can go. Antarctica is an expensive by the regulations of the International Maritime destination and the health of the world’s economy Organization (IMO), which sets standards for how has been a dominant factor in determining Antarctic ships operate everywhere in the world but has visitor numbers. Tourist numbers in Antarctica have additional regulations for ships in the polar regions been climbing steadily since the industry began (http://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/HotTopics/ in the late 1950s, but things really took off in the polar/Pages/default.aspx). early 1990s with only the global financial crisis of 2008 able to briefly interrupt this trend. Of the four 2019–2020 countries which historically send the most tourists Antarctic Tourism Statistics to Antarctica (United States, Australia, Germany, and United Kingdom), fluctuations in their respective +32% GDPs are correlated with changes in their visitor numbers (Bender et al. 2016). In the last decade, China has joined these top tourist nations, and their visitor numbers made up 11 percent of all Antarctic 74,401 tourists in this latest season. This is second only to the 36 percent market share of the United States (IAATO 2020). Pre-pandemic, tourist numbers were projected 2018–19 2019–20 to swell even further and cruise companies have prepared to meet this increasing demand by constructing more than twenty-nine new expedition- style cruise ships in the next three years. This will double the passenger capacity seen in 2018 (Cruise Industry News 2020) as these new ships join the forty or so vessels already plying their trade in Antarctica. However, a pandemic-induced world recession in 2020-21 will cool this trend, and once again it will be economic happenstance, not direct % % management, which controls visitor numbers. 36 99 USA passport holders travel by sea % depart from 99 South America Infographic © 2020, Peter Carey (may not to be used without prior written permission) Data source: IAATO 2020 POLAR PERSPECTIVES No. 1 l July 2020 While the ATS has struggled to make substantive While the ATS and IMO provide legally binding progress on tourism management, the Treaty Parties regulations that exert some control over ship- have put in place a number of recommendations borne tourism, the tourism industry itself also that help regulate tourist activities, including: setting adds operational elements to help manage their a maximum number of tourists allowed ashore at a own activities. These are mostly done through site at one time (100), setting a maximum number the International Association of Antarctica Tour of tourists a ship can carry if it wishes to make Operators (IAATO). Formed by a consortium of tour landings (500), providing detailed site guidelines for companies to self-manage their industry, IAATO some areas, and prohibiting landings at protected has been instrumental in shaping the way tourism sites. However, there are currently no restrictions is conducted in Antarctica. They have proved to be on the size of vessels visiting/sailing in Antarctic effective at lobbying the ATS and are frequently waters, nor on the related issue of how many consulted as an expert, contributing to meetings of passengers a ship can carry if it is not intending to the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Parties. Although make landings (so-called ‘cruise-only’ voyages). The joining IAATO is not mandatory for companies Treaty Parties set no limit to the number of ships or wishing to bring tourists to Antarctica, all current the number of visitors that can visit Antarctica in a operators have become members. season. For the most part, the ATS is happy to let IAATO Tour ships also must follow the regulations self-manage their own activities, and IAATO is implemented by the IMO, which sets safety and delighted to have so much say in their own destiny. environmental standards including, for example, This is a highly unusual arrangement: seldom do the requiring lifeboats be fully-enclosed and prohibiting companies profiting from a common-pool resource, ships from using or carrying heavy fuel oil when get to dictate how they consume that resource. operating south of 60° S. Heavy fuel oil is less However, as tourist numbers grow and are refined than the more expensive diesel fuel, and it perceived to put greater pressure on the Antarctic causes far more environmental damage if spilled. environment, this arrangement will be tested. The telephoto lens makes this ship look like it’s parked on the beach when in fact it is a safe distance offshore. Ships carrying less than 500 passengers are permitted to make landings in Antarctica. The green vest identifies a staff member who plays an important role in interpretation as well as crowd control. © Peter Carey POLAR PERSPECTIVES No. 1 l July 2020 Figure 1. The blue polygon is the same size on both maps. On the left, the polygon outlines the area where most ship-borne tourism takes place in Antarctica. On the right, the same-sized polygon is laid over the eastern United States for comparison. Map courtesy of map-frappe.com and Google Maps. TRAFFIC CONTROL Although Antarctica is larger than Europe, visitor 200 landings within a summer season that lasts activity on the continent is mostly confined to the about 120 days. One such site, Goudier Island, was area closest to South America, at the northwest tip visited by an average of about 150 tourists per day of the Antarctic Peninsula. Ninety-eight percent of during each of the past three seasons (IAATO 2019). all tourism on the continent takes place in a small zone only about 500 km (300 miles) in length (Fig. The ATS guidelines prohibit more than one vessel 1). It only takes 1-2 days sailing to reach this area visiting a site at the same time. Decades ago, when from the bottom of South America. Conveniently, only a few ships were operating, it was easy for this part of Antarctica is not only relatively close, it ships to stay out of the way of one another and also possesses spectacular scenery and abundant spread out spatially as well as temporally. But as wildlife. the number of ships increased, finding an available spot to land tourists became more difficult. In the And, within this small zone, tourist activity is further 2019-20 season there were forty-two tour ships (not concentrated at a few dozen landing sites where including commercial yachts) operating in the Antarctic the landscape is suitable for getting ashore safely. Peninsula, up from thirty-two vessels in the previous Hence, the vast majority of tourism traffic goes summer. By 2022, if all the newly-built vessels are ashore in just a handful of places, measuring about launched as expected, there will be about seventy 200 ha (494 acres) in total area (Bender et al. 2016). ships trying to find room in the same already-crowded This is the equivalent of about 350 football fields, tourism zone. or three times the area covered by Disneyland in California. Some of the busiest visitor sites can host POLAR PERSPECTIVES No. 1 l July 2020 However, with more ships on the horizon, it will only Regulation would allow limits to be get harder to follow an itinerary that does not clash set based on what the environment with other ships. can support, not on what the Further exacerbating this congestion is the capacity market will bear. This would be a of the port facilities in Ushuaia, Argentina, the city where most Antarctic cruises begin.
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