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Fundamentals Steadily Improve As Lease Rates Rise

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Fundamentals Steadily Improve As Lease Rates Rise MARKETVIEW Manhattan Retail, Q3 2017 Rents continue to decline while available space stabilizes 119.8 4.9% $34.5B 340.1K *Arrows indicate change from previous quarter. Sources: The Conference Board, September 2017; NYS Department of Labor, August 2017; U.S. Census Bureau, Moody’s Analytics, June 2017; NYS Department of Labor, August 2017. MARKET NEWS • National Geographic Encounter: Ocean Odyssey opened at 226 West 44th Street. The first-ever experiential retail concept from National Geographic is an adaptive reuse of the New York Times’ former press room. 3-D media gives an immersive underwater experience without the use of ocean wildlife or aquariums. • Construction of Vessel—the public art installation centerpiece of the Hudson Yards development—is well underway, with six stories completed. Neiman Marcus, the anchor tenant of the million-square-foot-plus retail segment, plans to open its 190,000-sq.-ft. store in March 2019. • Despite opening a 35,000-sq.-ft. temporary store at 1466 Broadway, as well as leasing space at the Manhattan Mall in Herald Square in Q3 2017, Toys “R” Us has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. However, the retailer plans to continue operating its approximately 1,600 Toys “R” Us and Babies “R” Us locations globally as it undergoes restructuring. • Continuing the off-price expansion trend seen in 2017 so far, T.J. Maxx plans to venture into the Broadway section of SoHo. This is following a Q1 2017 lease for a Marshalls, one of T.J. Maxx’s numerous store formats, near the World Trade Center. • Quick-service restaurants are thriving. Chick-fil-A has announced that it will be opening its third store in Manhattan— a 12,000-sq.-ft. restaurant that will be the largest in the country. MARKET OVERVIEW 1 Q3 2017 CBRE Research © 2017 CBRE, Inc. | 1 MARKETVIEW MANHATTAN RETAIL ECONOMIC TRENDS LEASING ACTIVITY Figure 1: NYC Seasonally Adjusted Total Employment 4,600 4,429 4,400 4,200 4,000 3,730 3,825 3,800 3,600 3,400 All employees (thousands) employees All 3,200 3,000 Source: NYC Department of Labor, August 2017. Figure 2: Top Lease Transactions Tenant Size (Sq. Ft.) Address Neighborhood Industry Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. 47,892 11 Times Square Times Square Entertainment Toys “R” Us 36,396 1466 Broadway Penn Plaza/Herald Square Toys T.J. Maxx 29,210 483 Broadway SoHo Consumer Products Sparks Steak House 22,924 210 East 46th Street Midtown East Restaurant/Hotel Gap, Inc. 15,784 655 Third Avenue Midtown East Clothing/Textiles Sephora USA 15,700 1535 Broadway Times Square Cosmetics Multinational Technology Company 13,000 110 Fifth Avenue Flatiron/Union Square Computer Related Muji 12,991 127 East 59th Street Midtown East Clothing/Textiles Bluebird 10,000 10 Columbus Circle Columbus Circle Restaurant–Tablecloth TsuruTonTan 9,762 64 West 48th Street Rockefeller Center Restaurant–Tablecloth Totokaelo 8,918 190 Bowery NoLIta Clothing/Textiles Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2017. Q3 2017 CBRE Research © 2017 CBRE, Inc. | 2 MARKETVIEW MANHATTAN RETAIL AVAILABILITY − Figure 3: Most Active Neighborhoods by SF Leased | Q3 2017 Neighborhood Leased (Sq. Ft.) Number of deals Times Square 63,592 2 Midtown East 55,099 5 SoHo 50,454 8 Penn Plaza/Herald Square 46,871 4 Midtown West 25,371 8 Flatiron/Union Square 23,702 3 Tribeca 20,816 7 Upper East Side 19,209 9 Columbus Circle 18,135 4 NoLIta 16,772 3 Figure 5: Count of Direct Ground-Floor Availabilities Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2017. 250 Figure 4: Most Active Tenant Type by Transaction Count | Q3 2017 200 Tenant type Number of deals Leased (Sq. Ft.) 150 Restaurant−Fast Food/ 20 42,985 floor floor availabilities Quick-Service - 100 Clothing/Textiles 13 55,958 Restaurant−Tablecloth 11 45,123 50 Telecommunications 8 11,072 ground Direct 0 Retail Sales 6 22,598 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Fine Arts 5 6,997 Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2017. Apparel−Women’s 4 5,575 Pharmaceuticals 3 3,440 Health Care 3 10,150 Apparel−Unisex 3 11,068 Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2017. Q3 2017 CBRE Research © 2017 CBRE, Inc. | 3 MARKETVIEW MANHATTAN RETAIL AVERAGE ASKING RENTS Figure 6: Average Asking Rents | Q3 2017 Quarter-over- Year-over-year Corridor Parameters Q3 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2016 quarter change change Upper West Side Broadway | 72nd to 86th Streets $287 $308 (6.7%) $325 (11.8%) Upper East Side Third Avenue | 60th to 72nd Streets $295 $307 (3.8%) $333 (11.2%) Upper Madison Ave Madison Avenue | 57th to 72nd Streets $1,289 $1,417 (9.1%) $1,340 (3.8%) Plaza District Fifth Avenue | 49th to 59th Streets $3,412 $3,270 4.4% $3,025 12.8% Grand Central Fifth Avenue | 42nd to 49th Streets $1,023 $1,042 (1.9%) $1,239 (17.4%) Broadway & Seventh Avenue | 42nd to 47th Times Square Streets $2,086 $2,123 (1.8%) $2,225 (6.3%) Flatiron/Union Square Broadway | 14th to 23rd Streets $393 $340 15.5% $408 (3.7%) Flatiron/Union Square Fifth Avenue | 14th to 23rd Streets $406 $405 0.4% $354 14.8% Herald Square 34th Street | Fifth to Seventh Avenues $575 $632 (9.1%) $647 (11.1%) SoHo Broadway | Houston to Broome Streets $607 $667 (9.0%) $705 (13.9%) SoHo Prince Street | Broadway to West Broadway $771 $774 (0.5%) $798 (3.4%) SoHo Spring Street | Broadway to West Broadway $817 $828 (1.4%) $996 (18.0%) Meatpacking 14th Street | Eighth to Tenth Avenues $351 $356 (1.5%) $293 19.7% Gansevoort | Little West 12th Street | 13th Meatpacking Street | Ninth to Tenth Avenues $442 $481 (8.0%) $472 (6.3%) Meatpacking Washington Street | 14th to Gansevoort Streets $550 $550 0.0% $517 6.5% Downtown Broadway | Battery Park to Chambers Street $414 $421 (1.7%) $376 10.1% Aggregate All Corridors $711 $759 (6.4%) $820 (13.4%) Based on ground floor only, not inclusive of subleases. Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2017. Q3 2017 CBRE Research © 2017 CBRE, Inc. | 4 MARKETVIEW MANHATTAN RETAIL Figure 7: Aggregate Average Asking Rents | Quarterly $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 Q2 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2017. Q3 2017 CBRE Research © 2017 CBRE, Inc. | 5 MARKETVIEW MANHATTAN RETAIL RETAIL CORRIDORS Q3 2017 CBRE Research © 2017 CBRE, Inc. | 6 MARKETVIEW MANHATTAN RETAIL DEFINITIONS Availability — Space that is actively marketed; includes spaces for immediate and future occupancy. Asking rent — Average asking rent calculated using the straight line average for direct ground-floor spaces that have street frontage along one of the 16 corridors tracked by CBRE. Total available spaces — Based on available ground-floor space with street frontage that faces one of the 16 corridors tracked by CBRE. SOURCES 1. https://www.labor.ny.gov/stats/nyc/ 2. https://www.labor.ny.gov/stats/nyc/ 3. https://comptroller.nyc.gov/reports/nyc-economy-solid-growth- continues-in-2q2017/ 4. https://www.labor.ny.gov/stats/nyc/ 5. https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm CONTACTS Disclaimer: Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE..
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