CLIMATE CHANGE BUSINESS JOURNAL® Climate Change Industry Awards for 2020 Volume XIV, No. 1-2-3 First Quarter 2021 CCBJ Business Achievement Business Achievement Awards and Executive Review Award Winners for 2020 Climate Change Business Journal® recognizes 2020 business achievements across limate Change Business Jour- a broad spectrum of categories in the climate change industry. The 32 recipients nal® presents its annual CCBJ of 2020 CCBJ Business Achievement Awards represent non-profits, associations, Business Achievement Awards and individuals, but mostly the large and small companies that have committed for outstanding business performance in their business assets to climate solutions and that made significant traction in C the market in 2020. Several award winners contribute executive Q&As to provide 2020. A live CCBJ Awards presentation ceremony, including comments by selected more details on their 2020 award and plans for the future, along with a diverse winners and free to the climate change in- set of newsmakers and analysts advancing climate change industry objectives 1-9 dustry community, was hosted by EBI on ICF Makes the Business Case for Climate Resilience Investment in Miami Beach Zoom on Friday, March 12, 2021. CCBJ with Key Involvement from Stakeholders and Project Partners 10 Awards are generally presented in person at EBI’s annual Environmental Industry Orion Environmental Uses GHG Emission Reductions to Drive Efficiency in Summit held in March of each year. Envi- Remediation Projects 12 ronmental Industry Summit XIX is sched- uled in person for September 22-24, 2021 WSP Triples its Client Base in its Climate Risk Adaptation and Resilience Services in Coronado, California. Congratulations Practice Area in 2020 with TCFD as a Major Driver of Client Demand 13 to the 2020 CCBJ Award winners, and Element Markets Continues Growth and Expansion to Houston HQ in a thanks to the review committee and all the Challenging 2020; Builds on Leadership in RNG and Closes TPG Partnership 15 companies that submitted nominations.

Note: Final 2020 CCBJ Awards in Siemens Energy and DOE Target the Hydrogen Market 17 certain categories may not be completely EA Engineering Science and Technology Doubles its Coastal Resilience Practice in adjudicated until Environmental Industry 2020; Sharpens Its Focus on Natural and Nature-Based Solutions 18 Summit XIX. EBJ Lifetime Achievement Awards and 50th Anniversary Awards Tetra Tech and its High Performance Buildings Group Take on Ambitious Goal of were presented during the February 11-12 Decarbonizing all 23 CSU Campuses 20 EBJ Award ceremony on Zoom, but also will be recognized at the Summit in Sep- American Forest Foundation Works With Family Forest Owners to Sequester and tember, or whenever the Summit panel of Store Carbon 21 deems it safe and appropriate to gather. International Institute For Applied Systems Analysis Pinpoints High Impact Areas In October-December 2020, CCBJ so- For Ecosystem Restoration 24 licited for nominations for the CCBJ Busi- ness Achievement Awards via e-mail, social Local Investment in Climate Change Adaptation & Resilience Increases Influence media, the EBI website, industry partners, of the Institute for Water and Environmental Resilience and Stetson University 26 events and word-of-mouth. Nominations were accepted in 200-word essays, and cat- A History of Oil; Scenarios for Energy & Power in 2030, 2040 & 2050 29 egories may have been adjusted depending on the volume of nominations or the num- S&P Global Market Intelligence Charts a U.S. Regional Path to Carbon-Free Power ber of worthy recipients. Final awards were Generation by 2035 31 determined by a committee of CCBJ staff Solar Posts Record Gains in Capacity Installations in 2020; Much More Growth to and CCBJ editorial advisory board mem- bers. Disclaimer: Company audits were not Come in the Global Market 34 conducted to verify information or claims Quarterly Feature: A Last Word on Climate Policy 36 submitted with nominations. 2 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021

Advancing Best Practices: Business Innovation: Clean CLIMATE CHANGE BUSINESS JOURNAL Climate Change Adaptation & Energy Distribution & Storage

ISSN 1940--8781 Resilience Jacobs and Yarra Valley Water, Mel- Editor- in-Chief Grant Ferrier bourne’s largest retail water utility, for Research Analyst Laura Carranza American Society of Adaptation Pro- using Yarra’s Aurora wastewater treat- Managing Editor Lyn Thwaites fessionals for supporting education and ment plant as a case study to explore the Contributing Editors best practices in Climate Change Adapta- relationship between both outputs from Adriana Blair, George Stubbs, tion & Resilience and managing climate Brian Runkel, Charles Helget, migration. ASAP members formed the electrolysis – hydrogen and pure oxygen. Andrew Paterson, Tom Aarts Climate Migration and Managed Retreat Analysis explored whether using oxygen Subscriber Services initiative in 2019 and in 2020 hosted a se- in wastewater treatment processes could Anika Rohlfes ries of workshops and forums (all online create enough savings for the wastewater Celeste Ferrier during the pandemic) for leaders, planners, treatment plant to effectively subsidize the designers, engineers, researchers and other cost of hydrogen and increase its commer- practitioners on topics ranging from man- cial viability. The findings indicated that Climate Change Business aging sea level rise at the world’s largest implementing a type of treatment technol- Journal® newsletter is published naval base in Norfolk, Va., the evolution of ogy that allows for the efficient use of pure in quarterly feature editions oxygen at the Aurora wastewater treat- and special supplements reinsurance markets in south Florida, ad- ment plant could deliver net capital and by Environmental Business dressing climate change risks and liabil- International Inc., 4452 Park ity for infrastructure, and pilot programs operating cost savings to Yarra Valley Wa- Blvd., Suite 306, San Diego, CA for the relocation of communities. ASAP ter compared to other treatment options. 92116. 619-295-7685 or email developed the New York State Climate At the same time, the guaranteed demand [email protected] Migration Modeling Accelerator that was for oxygen at Aurora was instrumental in © 2021 Environmental Business launched in November 2020 with NY En- enabling the co-located hydrogen facility International Inc. All Rights ergy Research and Development Author- to be commercially viable, while selling hy- Reserved. This publication or ity to support multidisciplinary teams to drogen within a competitive price range of any part may not be duplicated, develop models for forecasting climate-in- AUD$2-6/kg. Importantly, this result was reprinted or republished without duced migration within and to New York. achieved for ‘sustainable hydrogen’ – pro- the express written permission of duced using recycled water and renewable Advancing Best Practices: GHG the publisher. energy – highlighting the opportunity for Mitigation How to subscribe decarbonization without compromising drinking water resources. Annual corporate electronic Veolia North America and its Indus- access subscriptions to CCBJ trial Business unit for developing a way Business Innovation: Clean start at $995 (up to 5 users) for GE Renewable Energy to recycle wind Energy Distribution & Storage and up to $1,995 for more than turbine blades that are replaced during up- 20 users. Subscriptions may be grades and repowering. Veolia is process- LevelTen Energy for the launch of its available at discount to non- ing the blades as a raw material for cement, RE-Store™ Energy Agreement, an inno- profits, research institutions, utilizing a cement kiln co-processing tech- vative financial contract that enables corpo- and for individual or single-use rations and Load-Serving Entities (LSEs) subscriptions; nology. Once blades are removed from the wind turbines, they are sent to Veolia’s pro- easier access to the economic and risk-re- To order or for more information cessing facility where they are shredded, ducing benefits of energy storage projects. call (619) 295-7685 x 15, email then used instead of coal, sand, and clay Starbucks was the first to use an agreement [email protected], or go to www. of this kind to provide renewable energy ebionline.org, where you can also at cement manufacturing facilities. Nearly for more than 550 stores in California sign up for email newsletters. 90% of the wind turbine blade material is reused, and 65% of the blade weight with solar energy and utility-scale batter- replaces raw materials, and about 28% of ies. The agreement opens the door to bil- the blade weight provides energy for the lions of dollars of investment in large-scale chemical reaction in the kiln, leading to a energy storage projects by providing buy- 27% net reduction in CO2 emissions from ers a practical way to contract with storage the cement production process. developers, and by guaranteeing a revenue 3 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021 stream to developers to support project fi- Business Model Innovation: GHG Mitigation nancing. In addition to supporting project financing, as a financially-settled contract, CHANGE Environmental LLC for developing an innovative and strategic climate the agreement affords storage owners full change monitoring and carbon investment management process for Lehigh Hanson (a operational control, allowing projects to Heidelberg Cement company) plants in Canada and California. The project assessed the optimize all asset revenues (through ca- financial obligations and impacts that current emissions had on the financial structure pacity and ancillary services sales. With and stability of company earnings, having already paid millions of dollars for allocation an increasing number of merchant stor- credits. CHANGE Environmental developed a novel “environmental scorecard” strategy age projects seeking contracted revenues that looked at the past and current emissions for each of the plants and their allowable to complement their exposure to wholesale limits to provide insight into developing strategies for reducing the carbon footprints market volatility, LevelTen’s RE-Store™ for all facilities. The outcome included a massive reduction in GHG emissions, reducing Energy Agreement is breaking down a key credit purchases and the sale of allocations to clients to help them offset their emissions. barrier to project development. CCBJ Business Achievement Award Winners for 2020 CCBJ Award Category Company/Organization Consulting & Engineering: Low-Carbon Energy Practice AECOM Industry Leadership: Climate Change Adaptation & Resilience AECOM Advancing Best Practices: Climate Change Adaptation & Resilience American Society of Adaptation Professionals Consulting & Engineering: Energy & Carbon Management Antea Group USA Consulting & Engineering: Climate Change Adaptation & Resilience Arcadis Growth: Low-Carbon Energy Practice Arcadis Consulting & Engineering: GHG Mitigation CHANGE Environmental, LLC Partnerships & Projects CleanBay Renewables Inc. Growth: Climate Change Adaptation & Resilience EA Engineering, Science, and Technology, Inc., PBC COVID Resilience & Business Growth Element Markets Industry Leadership: Sustainability ERM Growth: Renewable Energy Fugro USA, Inc. Information Technology: GHG Mitigation Greater Than Financial Partnerships Hannon Armstrong Consulting & Engineering: Climate Change Adaptation & Resilience ICF Business Model Innovation: Clean Energy Distribution & Storage Jacobs Industry Leadership: Climate Action Plan Jacobs Project Merit: Climate Change Adaptation & Resilience Jacobs Industry Leadership: Individual Kevin Wilhelm Consulting & Engineering: Climate Change Adaptation & Resilience Kleinfelder Business Model Innovation: Clean Energy Distribution & Storage LevelTen Energy Information Technology for Renewable Energy LevelTen Energy COVID Resilience & Business Growth MicroBioGen Pty Ltd Project Merit: GHG Reduction in Remediation Orion Environmental Inc. Financing Innovation: Low-Carbon Energy Rincon Consultants, Inc. Mergers & Acquisitions Shell Australia Mergers & Acquisitions Sunrun Consulting & Engineering: Offshore Wind Tetra Tech, Inc. Project Merit: High Performance Buildings Tetra Tech, Inc. Advancing Best Practices: GHG Mitigation Veolia North America Mergers & Acquisitions Willis Towers Watson Growth: Climate Change Adaptation & Resilience WSP USA 4 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021

Consulting & Engineering: GHG Consulting & Engineering: change vulnerability assessment, adapta- Mitigation Climate Change Adaptation & tion planning, and resilient design proj- ects completed or underway in the Cities Resilience AECOM for its key role in developing of Boston, Cambridge, Medford, Somer- ville; Town of Hull; Massachusetts Port Network Rail’s Environmental Sustain- ICF for a groundbreaking 2020 project Authority (Massport); Massachusetts Bay ability Strategy, aiming to transform the to understand and communicate the busi- Transportation Authority (MBTA); and UK rail industry with the cleanest, green- ness case for flood resiliency investments the Upper Mystic River Watershed. Proj- est mass transport. The strategy sets am- in Miami Beach. The goal of the project ects build consensus, obtain funding, and bitious commitments, targeting Net Zero was to highlight the cost-effectiveness— implement resilience projects and policies Carbon, Climate Change Adaptation, in terms of impacts on property damages, and Kleinfelder’s technical innovation, ef- Biodiversity, Circular Economy and Air taxes, insurance payments, and tourism— fective communication, and results have Quality. In January 2020, the AECOM of various mitigation strategies against earned the company a strong reputation in team of ten joined Network Rail’s routes the costs of inaction. Methods included climate change adaptation & resilience. to support its Decarbonisation Taskforce, detailed analyses of the effectiveness of generating over 300 opportunities to help flood-reduction options and their effects Consulting & Engineering: meet carbon (-25%) and energy (-18%) on property values, insurance premiums, Offshore Wind reduction targets by March 2024. Getting and city operational costs, and modeling to Net Zero means doing new feasibility efforts to help City officials understand and Tetra Tech Inc. for supporting Domin- studies, investment cases, and procure- present the business case analysis of resil- ion Energy in becoming the first utility to ment for new energy assets like solar, ience investments. ICF’s team of Kimley- install offshore wind turbines in U.S. fed- batteries, hydrogen, EV infrastructure Horn, AIR, Brizaga, and Florida Atlantic eral waters. Under the Coastal Virginia and thinking about land use and natural University created citywide sea level rise Offshore Wind (CVOW) Pilot Project, systems in new ways. First steps involved and storm surge inundation maps, detailed Tetra Tech served as the lead environ- large buildings and identified 16.5% and stormwater flooding scenarios, a hedonic mental consultant for Dominion Energy’s represented a £16m investment with a less pricing model that captured the increased 12-megawatt offshore wind project located than 5-year payback. Fixes across all 200 housing value of adaptation measures, a 27 miles off the coast of Virginia and facil- buildings represented a £80m investment neighborhood-level cost-effectiveness case itated all federal and state permitting work and will deliver a 6% energy and 8% car- study, and a citywide business case analy- and construction compliance monitoring bon reduction. sis. Investment scenarios (no-action ver- and training. These two turbines were the Consulting & Engineering: sus public versus private) and stormwater first in U.S. federal waters and only the Climate Change Adaptation & events (King Tide, 5-year, 10-year, and second offshore wind turbines installed anywhere in the United States. Tetra Tech Resilience moderate hurricane events) enabled the city to right-size and prioritize its resil- guided many firsts with this project, in- ience investments. cluding approval of a Research Activities Arcadis for supporting entrepreneur- Plan, a first-of-its kind environmental ship and adaptation through its Tech- Consulting & Engineering: report that is the basis for the Bureau of stars program the Arcadis City of 2030 Climate Change Adaptation & Ocean Energy Management evaluation Accelerator that identified Irys as a high Resilience under the National Environmental Policy potential startup in the arena of climate Act; and issuance of the first right-of-way change adaptation & resilience. Since Kleinfelder for the completion and grant for renewable energy activities. 2019 Arcadis’ global partnership around deliverables on the Cambridge Climate the Irys people-centric community build- Change Preparedness and Resiliency Plan Consulting & Engineering: ing digital platform developed a two way (CCPR). Kleinfelder has worked on cli- Energy & Carbon Management “Cityshaper” tool that engages with peo- mate change projects since 2012, bridging ple to support more inclusive community consulting expertise, academic research, Antea Group for expanding its Sustain- building projects. In addition, Arcadis government policymaking, and commu- ability Consulting practice with on Sci- teamed with Irys to adapt their platform nity engagement to climate change vul- ence-Based Targets (SBTs) and supporting to COVID related data gathering in com- nerability, preparedness, and resiliency. the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi). munities. From self-screening data gath- Kleinfelder’s Climate Change Practice Antea works with many companies across ering to resource tracking to dashboarding has helped communities understand and various industries considering or setting and reporting. manage their risks with nearly 30 climate SBTs to align greenhouse gas (GHG) 5 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021 emissions reduction targets with most re- COVID Resilience & Business ate all employees and added to payroll. To- cent climate science guidelines. Antea’s tal research output declined by only 20% Growth expert team helps clients understand the in 2020, compared to a 50% reduction in background of science-based targets, in- the number of laboratory hours worked. Element Markets for successfully navi- cluding the global context of the initiative A positive outcome w the identification gating the challenges of 2020, finishing and the science behind it, walking compa- of previous lab bottlenecks that were ad- the year with growth in revenues and staff, nies through the applicable methodologies dressed through new equipment purchases, including several senior-level key hires, and aided in setting targets. Antea draws with continued higher laboratory worker and a move to new Houston offices to -ac on deep expertise in facilities optimiza- efficiencies even after COVID-19 is over. commodate growth. Founded in 2005, tion, renewables procurement, and energy Technical breakthroughs included a po- Element Markets is a renewable natural management to help companies define a tential solution to maximize the value of gas marketing and environmental com- strategy and drive improvements to meet excess renewable energy generated in areas modities company providing structured ambitious targets. Antea also leverages its of high insolation. environmental compliance and optimiza- strong, long-term relationship with CDP tion services with a track record in renew- Financing Innovation: Low- to help clients with a robust understanding able natural gas (RNG), low carbon fuels, Carbon Energy of the economic impacts of SBTs, includ- emissions, carbon, and renewable energy ing capital commitment, cost savings, and credit markets. RNG milestones in 2020 Rincon Consultants Inc. for assist- return on investment. included; 180,000 metric tonnes of green- ing the City of Berkeley with the Berke- Consulting & Engineering: Low- house gas reductions achieved on behalf of ley Existing Building Electrification Plan Carbon Energy Practice a county transit authority; A new RNG (BEEP) to retrofit the City’s building stock facility commissioning and pipeline injec- to utilize 100% electricity to fully leverage AECOM for progress on the design/ tion for a major swine RNG/utility joint SB100 and decarbonize the building sec- build of jetBlue’s electric vehicle charg- venture; Three hydrogen fuel pathways tor. The BEEP aims to drastically reduce ing infrastructure, the largest system for for RNG under California’s Low Carbon greenhouse gas emissions from buildings, electric ground service equipment at JFK Fuel Standard that had three of the top 15 improve the health of citizens, provide International Airport. Aviation’s contribu- lowest carbon intensity scores for LCFS long-term cost savings, allow for a more tion to global warming is increasingly in pathways as of December 2020. Element resilient and safer source of power, and to the spotlight, and with airports manag- Markets was a multiple first-place win- ensure these benefits are equitably distrib- ing unprecedented pandemic challenges, ner in the Environmental Finance Annual uted. This first of its kind project includes a aviation grid modernization will support Market Survey, including repeat “best” building-by-building energy model, analy- present and future pressures. Convert- designations across Renewable Identifica- sis of permit data, and local cost estimates ing 40% of jetBlue’s fleet from gasoline to tion Numbers (RINs), Regional Green- for electrification retrofits. Rincon and electric, AECOM’s services included a de- house Gas Initiative (RGGI), and Califor- their partners at the Rocky Mountain In- sign/build approach, equipment provision, nia Greenhouse Gas Markets. stitute found electrification retrofits to be management, and complete installation COVID Resilience & Business cost-effective in many situations, but with labor, including start-up, testing and com- higher upfront costs compared to natural Growth missioning of 38 four-port and two-port gas replacements. Through extensive out- charging stations for a total of 118 charg- reach work, Rincon and the Ecology Cen- MicroBioGen Pty Ltd for resilience in ing ports at the terminal. Immediate gains ter found these upfront costs to be a poten- the face of COVID-19 related lockdowns include zero tailpipe emissions, reducing tial equity impact. Using this feedback, a that led to a significant decrease in the carbon monoxide, ozone precursors and series of “equity guardrails” were developed global demand for transport fuels during particulate matter. The new system is tar- to ensure electrification strategies pro- 2020, negatively affecting revenue that re- geted to cut 4 million pounds (1,700 met- vided equitable costs, access to improve- lies solely on bioethanol sales. MicroBio- ric tons) of GHG emission per year. This ments, access to economic benefits, and Gen develops Saccharomyces cerevisiae project, in partnership with the New York to prevent displacement. These guardrails yeasts – living organisms – to produce bio- Power Authority, jetBlue, and the Port Au- shifted Berkeley’s electrification strategies fuels and a range of other products. During thority of New York and New Jersey, re- from moving fast, towards identifying the ceived a $4 million Voluntary Airport Low the worst of the pandemic, the company financing strategies and renter protections Emissions Program grant, the first award- managed to maintain the safety and loyalty that meet community needs. ed by the Federal Aviation Administration of employees, continued to fully remuner- to the Port Authority. 6 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021

Growth: Climate Change services, banking, information technology, edge and experience. This acquisition fits Adaptation & Resilience transport, aerospace and defense, luxury well into Arcadis’ ambition of creating sus- goods, lodging, engineering and construc- tainable and resilient societies; in addition, tion and government – to provide techni- it will also provide for fertile ground for EA Engineering Science and Tech- cal and strategic support for our clients talent development and knowledge shar- nology for the growth of its Coastal Re- to align with and implement the recom- ing at a time during which an increasing silience practice. Revenues of EA’s Coastal mendations of the TCFD. In 2020, WSP number of clients worldwide are pressing Resilience practice, focused on natural TCFD services grew from assessing align- forward on sustainability. and nature-based solutions, doubled in ment with the TCFD recommendations 2020 and added significant contract wins. Growth: Renewable Energy and benchmarking progress against peers, This accelerated growth is attributable to to understanding material and substantive increased need to conserve and restore Fugro USA Inc. for performing eight financial risks and opportunities, fully sup- coastal habitats and ecosystems negatively contracts for six offshore wind develop- porting TCFD filings and disclosures, and impacted by climate change and the ex- ment projects in the Atlantic in 2020. co-designing and implementing multi- panded availability of public funding to Projects involved a wide range of site char- year TCFD roadmaps to operationalize develop and implement resilience strat- acterization services, including: metocean sustainability and resilience into the fabric egies. In 2020, EA was awarded coastal studies to help reduce uncertainty in en- of client enterprises. Through these ser- resilience contracts in multiple market sec- gineering design, support project planning, vices, WSP works to advance their clients’ tors. Most significant wins include Na- and enhance operational safety and effi- TCFD journey by actively reducing green- tional Park Service (NPS) Coastal Engi- ciency; geophysical surveys to help ascer- house gas emissions, investing in clean, neering and Hazards Assistance, National tain seabed bathymetry, morphology, and renewable energy, managing physical acute Audubon Society, and as a team member to understand the sub-seabed layers and and chronic risks, adapting to the changes supporting a grant under National Oce- identify potential UXO; geotechnical in- already facing the world, and strengthen- anic and Atmospheric Administration’s vestigations to determine and manage the ing resilience across the enterprise, supply Ecological Effects of Sea Level Rise pro- ground risk associated with offshore wind chain, and within local host communities. gram. EA continues to be a major con- farms; and nearshore geotechnical inves- tributor in developing new and updating Growth: Low-Carbon Energy tigations to define power cable landfall existing guidance and decision-making Practice location. Completing this volume of new documents, such as updating NPS’s Beach work posed multiple challenges given the Nourishment Guidance and developing Arcadis for expanding its Sustainable Covid-19 pandemic. Fugro coordinated Department of Defense Legacy Program’s Urban Development and Energy Transi- closely with client and government rep- Cultural Resource Adaptation to Climate tion capabilities in 2020. In early 2020, resentatives, implementing multiple new Change guidance document. EA has be- Arcadis acquired Over Morgen, a fast- procedures to ensure the health and safety come a nationally recognized as a leader in growing Dutch consultancy company with of Fugro staff and its project stakeholders natural and nature-based responses – ap- 80 employees focusing on solving various throughout the field programs. Working in plying proven tactics that reduce life-cycle societal challenges by creating sustainable partnership with clients like Ørsted, May- protection costs by providing sustainable societies through an integrated approach flower Wind, and Atlantic Shores, we are long-term solutions. that combines area development and en- committed to helping US-based clients Growth: Climate Change ergy transition. Arcadis and Over Morgen permit and design offshore wind farms faster, while lowering construction and op- Adaptation & Resilience now combine their complementary capa- bilities to assist clients in creating sustain- erating risk. able environments. Over Morgen excels at WSP USA tripled the number of cli- Industry Leadership: providing integrated, innovative sustain- ents to which it provides climate risk, ad- Sustainability able solutions, with focus areas of sustain- aptation and resilience services in 2020, able energy strategies, sustainable mobility, and grew its related revenue by more than ERM for the successful launch and energy transition, smart cities, and sustain- 185% due in part to growth in its Task roll-out of The SustainAbility Institute by able urban development. Over Morgen Force on Climate-related Financial Dis- ERM, a thought leadership platform for complements Arcadis’ strengths in project closures (TCFD) services. Since 2015, delivering actionable insight to address realization, management, maintenance, WSP has partnered with over 20 differ- key sustainability challenges. For the past and cost management, as well as an exten- ent clients across industries — financial 50 years, ERM has been at the forefront sive global network and decades of knowl- of helping business integrate environmen- 7 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021 tal and social elements in ways that create Industry Leadership: Climate plant acceptance of the new Cutter Lat- value and minimize risk, supporting lead- Change Adaptation & Resilience eral Reach 21 Water Treatment Plant, in- ers at both a strategic and operational level. cluding 4 miles of raw and finished water transmission mains. With Jacobs as the Topics like supply chain management, hu- AECOM and a multi-disciplinary design-build lead, the 3.5-million-gallons- man rights, climate risk, ESG, and license team of academics and consultants for per-day greenfield project – which involves to operate are appearing on the agendas of authoring the New Zealand National Cli- the treatment and conveyance of water Boards and senior management and busi- mate Change Risk Assessment (NCCRA), from the Cutter Reservoir – will provide a ness leaders want guidance on addressing identifying the most significant climate clean, reliable and long-term water source them. The purpose of The SustainAbility change risks and identifying opportuni- for the Navajo and Jicarilla Apache com- Institute is to define, accelerate and scale ties and knowledge gaps to be addressed. munities along the Cutter Lateral. sustainability performance by developing The compressed 9-month delivery time- actionable insights for business, leading frame cut across assessment areas, diving Project Merit: GHG Reduction in to transformational change. In Novem- deep into issues in domain, accessing past Remediation ber 2020, the Institute launched “From regional and national expertise, and engag- Promise to Action on Net Zero” a series ing experts to network with multiple stake- Orion Environmental Inc. for the of executive interviews, reports, and events holder groups. New Zealand’s NCCRA accelerated shutdown of active remedial exploring how companies are translating provides the best available assessment of systems and the reduction in groundwater net zero emissions goals into practice, the risks to directly inform development of a monitoring at a complex site that yielded challenges they face, and the kinds of so- National Adaptation Plan. AECOM’s ap- a 99% reduction in sustainability indica- lutions they are developing to overcome proach engaged across five value domains, tors from 2016 to 2020, including green- them. and included national, regional, local agen- house gas and air emissions, water and Industry Leadership: Individual cies, Māori groups and iwi with over 400 energy usage, and accident risks. The site individuals engaged, contributing time, contains two active bulk fuel terminals Kevin Wilhelm, CEO of Sustainable knowledge and expertise. and a former retail gasoline station since Business Consulting, for his publication Project Merit: Climate Change 2016 with multiple water-bearing zones, of a new book to take on societal polariza- Adaptation & Resilience heterogeneous lithology, and residential tion entitled: “How to Talk to the Other and surface water receptors. Remedial Side: Finding Common Ground in the operations in 2016 included: Dual-phase Jacobs for acting as the design-build Time of Coronavirus, Recession, and Cli- extraction and oxygen injection systems; lead for the Cutter Lateral reach 21 water mate Change”. Kevin has worked over 200+ Monthly LNAPL monitoring and recov- treatment plant & conveyance pipelines organizations and has been dismayed by ery; and Quarterly to annual groundwater project in New Mexico. A 2009 Envi- our loss of the ability to relate, understand monitoring at 90 monitoring wells. Orion’s ronmental Impact Statement found that or even have conversations with people we sustainability initiatives optimize remedial groundwater levels for the city of Gallup don’t agree with – let alone come up with operations which resulted in: Natural at- has dropped 200 feet over the previous 10 the policy frameworks to solve the great tenuation rates in groundwater exceeding years, and that over 40% of Navajo Nation challenges of social justice, climate change calculated contaminant mass discharge households relied on hauling water to meet and Covid-19. Wilhelm’s roadmap offers rates sufficient to achieve remedial objec- their daily needs. Inadequate water supply real life case studies, practical tips and win- tives; and Regulatory approvals for reme- also impacted the ability of the Jicarilla win solutions for finding common ground dial system shutdowns and suspension of Apache people to live and work outside & shared value between Business & Envi- LNAPL recovery. A 2020 plume stability the reservation town of Dulce. To address ronmentalists, Republicans & Democrats, analysis resulted in regulatory approval for this critical adaption, resilience and envi- Climate Deniers & Advocate and even a 40 percent reduction in the monitoring ronmental justice issue, Congress autho- bridges the divide between Rural & Urban and analytical program. rized the $1.5 billion Navajo-Gallup Wa- America. The book reached the #1 Green ter Supply Project, as part of the Navajo Business best seller and made waves in and Nation San Juan River Basin NM Water outside the environmental industry, being Rights Settlement Agreement. The project featured on NBC, Fox News, the Seattle achieved a major milestone on October 1, Times, the Puget Sound Business Journal, 2020 with the substantial completion and and on over 25 podcasts including Earth 911’s one million+ followers. 8 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021

Project Merit: High Performance LevelTen Marketplace 4.0 delivers Industry Leadership: Climate Buildings new IT that makes it faster and easier Action Plan for renewable energy buyers and advisors to source and monitor PPAs. Version 4.0 Tetra Tech Inc. and its High Perfor- Jacobs for the 50th anniversary of Earth added: European projects, enabling re- mance Buildings Group for supporting Day release of its Climate Action Plan newable energy buyers to compare more California State University’s (CSU) cli- that outlines its commitments on climate than 4,000 PPA offers across 21 countries mate action plan which involves invest- change. 100% renewable energy, net zero North America and Europe; RFP Auto- ment to decarbonize existing utility infra- carbon for operations and business travel mation for buyers and advisors to compare structure for all 23 CSU campuses. With in 2020, and carbon negative by 2030 were submitted PPA proposals in scatter plots; Tetra Tech’s support, the CSU system can the major commitments. Jacobs completed and Performance Monitoring for REC realize a 70 percent reduction potential in its transition to 100% renewable energy tracking and settlement verification that natural gas consumption, meet their cli- for its operations, and achieved net-zero leverages direct data feeds and calculates mate action commitments, and support carbon emissions for its operations and historical and projected PPA settlement California’s goal to be carbon neutral by business travel in 2020. Additionally, Ja- payments and tracks the performance of a 2025. Campuses were prioritized for car- cobs published its carbon reduction targets company’s entire PPA portfolio in an on- bon-free heating systems using submeter to cover Scope 3 (indirect emissions) and line dashboard. data, inverse energy modeling, and predic- these have been approved by the Science tive analytics. Tetra Tech developed a cen- Information Technology: GHG Based Target Initiative. Joining over 300 tral utility plant scenario analysis planning Mitigation companies worldwide, Jacobs also signed tool and dynamic dashboards that allow the United Nations Business Ambition for campuses to optimize heat recovery strat- Greater Than for developing AI that 1.5°C – an urgent request to set ambitious egies and reduce GHG emissions. These unveils the factual and predictive risk and science-based emissions reduction targets dashboards enable stakeholders to better C02 emission per car in real-time. OEMs, aligned with limiting global temperature understand the multidimensional impacts fleets, insurance providers, and the new rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. of a carbon-free heating system and can be mobility use the platform to raise aware- Mergers & Acquisitions used to develop a long-term clean energy ness about safe and environmentally re- strategy. Tetra Tech also developed a sys- sponsible driving for everyday drivers as Willis Towers Watson (London, UK), tem-wide decarbonization framework that well as maintain better pricing of premi- a global advisory, risk management and consisted of policy reviews, mechanical de- ums, smart customer retention and tar- insurance brokerage company, for acquir- sign, technology assessments and energy geted customer acquisition. Through apps ing Acclimatise (Newark, UK), a climate modeling guidelines. with “gamification,” drivers are encouraged change adaptation advisory and analytics Information Technology for to contribute to lower CO2 emissions and services company, to meet growing de- Renewable Energy road safety. During 2020, Toyota Lexus mand from corporates, governments and rolled out its first loyalty program “Lexus financial institutions. The deal combines safe drive” in South East Asia. The solu- LevelTen Energy for the launches of Acclimatise’s climate modeling and ad- tion is entirely based on Greater Than’s Risk & Value 2.0 and LevelTen Market- aptation capabilities with Willis Towers service and AI platform. Since 2019, place 4.0 in 2020. Risk & Value 2.0 is a Watson’s natural catastrophe modeling, Greater Than has partnered with Federa- suite of online analytics that makes it easy risk management, re-insurance and in- tion Internationale de l’Automobile (FIA) for procurement managers to confidently vestment markets experience. Based in the and operates the yearly global event, the choose the best power purchase agreement UK and with teams in France, the United FIA Smart Driving Challenge, the world’s (PPA) for their organization, and success- States and India, Acclimatise has com- first global competition in smart driving. fully win internal stakeholder approval, a pleted more than 450 climate adaptation The 2019 season resulted in a reduction in key barrier in the PPA process. Factors af- consulting projects since it was founded CO2 emissions by 13.8% and related road fecting the value of a PPA include future in 2004. Acclimatise joins Willis Towers claims by 52% among participating driv- energy prices, the number of other renew- Watson’s Climate and Resilience Hub. ers, and results from the 2020 season being able energy projects expected to produce compiled. energy in the market, weather predictions and more, requiring ongoing access to for- ward energy price curves, weather models and other datasets. 9 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021

Mergers & Acquisitions Partnerships & Projects Financial Partnerships

Shell Australia (Brisbane, Australia) CleanBay Renewables Inc. (Annapo- Hannon Armstrong and European en- for acquiring Select Carbon (Cairns, Aus- lis, Md.), an enviro-tech company focused ergy giant Engie (Paris, France) for selling tralia), a company that specializes in de- on the production of greenhouse gas cred- 49% equity interest in a 2.3 GW U.S. re- veloping and aggregating carbon-farming its, organic fertilizer and renewable energy, newables portfolio to Hannon Armstrong projects throughout Australia. This was for partnering with Kiewit Corporation (Annapolis, Md.), a public company dedi- Shell’s first acquisition globally for its (Omaha, NE). Kiewit will design, engineer cated to investments in climate change Nature-Based Solutions business, which and build CleanBay’s Westover bio-refin- solutions. Engie will retain a controlling invests in forests, grasslands, wetlands and ery, which using anaerobic digestion will share and manage the 13 U.S. projects other ecosystems to reduce emissions and recycle more than 150,000 tons of chicken (nine onshore wind and four solar). In capture CO2 while benefiting biodiversity litter annually and convert it into renew- April 2020, Engie secured $1.6 billion tax and local communities. Shell’s goal is to able natural gas, electricity and a nutrient- equity commitments, bringing the total become a net-zero emissions energy busi- rich fertilizer product. The partnership will for the portfolio to almost $2 billion. “The ness by 2050. Carbon credits generated bring the “first utility-scale anaerobic di- size of the portfolio and the magnitude of through Select Carbon’s projects are of- gestion plant focused on agricultural feed- its tax equity financing—the largest ever fered for sale through the Australian Gov- stock to Maryland,” said Brad Kaufman, in the United States—demonstrates EN- ernment’s Emissions Reduction Fund and senior vice president, Kiewit. Construction GIE’s successful development in this mar- other markets, creating an additional rev- at the Westover facility will include more ket,” the company stated. enue stream for farmers and landowners. than $200 million of capital investment by Mergers & Acquisitions CleanBay. About the CCBJ Awards Rooftop solar company Sunrun (San Francisco, CA) for acquiring rival Vivint In October-December 2020, CCBJ solicited the environmental industry and climate change Solar (Lehi, UT) in an all-stock transac- industry via e-mail, social media, its website, industry events and word-of-mouth for nomi- tion valued at $3.2 billion. The combined nations for the CCBJ Business Achievement Awards. Nominations were accepted in 200-word companies were estimated to have a com- essays in either specific or unspecified categories. Categories may have been adjusted depending bined enterprise value of $9.2 billion. on the volume of nominations or the number of worthy recipients. Final awards were deter- Vivint Solar adds a direct-to-home sales mined by a committee of CCBJ staff and editorial advisory board members. Disclaimer: Com- channel to Sunrun’s platform. Residential pany audits were not conducted to verify information or claims submitted with nominations. solar has reached only 3% penetration in the United States, yet surveys show nearly EBI Report 4800: Climate Change Adaptation & Resilience Markets (up- 9 out of 10 Americans favor expanding the dated for 2021) focuses on the U.S. Climate Adaptation & Resilience Industry, use of solar power, Sunrun stated, noting led by consulting & engineering firms doing assessment, risk science, model- that “Consultative experience from trusted ing and planning. CCBJ estimates that Adaptation & Resilience services has sales advisors is important to educate cus- grown into a billion-dollar industry in the United States in 2020, with double tomers of the merits of solar energy.” Cost digit growth forecasted in consulting and substantial growth in contracting synergies are estimated at $90 million on as design and construction of adaptation measures are beginning in earnest. an annual basis. BloombergNEF estimates The global A&R consulting market already exceeds $2 billion, and the market that Sunrun and Vivint together currently is divided by risk, assessment, planning, design and construction specialists provide about 75% of new U.S. residential in each area. CCBJ’s assessment of climate change adaptation & resilience solar leases each quarter. markets identifies funded projects in a variety of regions conducted by utili- ties, states, ports, institutions, government agencies, non-profits, universities as well as a few well-placed consulting & engineering firms.

This 500-page report maps out the Climate Change Adaptation Industry & Resilience Markets into service and client breakdowns with market forecasts, and profiles of existing projects and companies engaged in the practice. 10 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021

ICF Makes the Business Case for Climate Resilience CCBJ Award: Consulting & Investment in Miami Beach Engineering Climate Change Adaptation & Resilience ICF is a global consulting services company with over 7,000 full- and part-time employees. ICF for a 2020 project to understand At ICF, business analysts and policy specialists work together with digital strategists, data sci- and communicate the business case for entists and creatives, combining industry expertise with engagement capabilities to help orga- flood resiliency investments in Miami nizations solve their most complex challenges. Since 1969, public and private sector clients have Beach. The project highlighted the cost- worked with ICF to navigate change and shape the future. effectiveness of various mitigation strat- Cassandra Bhat is a Senior Managing Consultant in Climate Resilience for ICF in egies against the costs of inaction using Florida. With over a decade of experience, she develops climate vulnerability assessment detailed analyses of the effectiveness of techniques and adaptation strategies that feed into core decision-making processes. Proj- flood-reduction options and their effects ects center around infrastructure, transportation systems, and community impact. Cassie on property values, insurance premiums, created the industry-standard transportation vulnerability assessment tools for the United and city operational costs. ICF’s team of States Department of Transportation, she conducted a first-of-its-kind climate risk as- Kimley-Horn, AIR, Brizaga, and Flor- sessment for the province of British Columbia and led a groundbreaking analysis of the ida Atlantic University created citywide business case for resilience investments in Miami Beach. Cassie is a member of the Trans- sea level rise and storm surge inunda- portation Research Board Standing Committee on the Transportation Needs of National tion maps, detailed stormwater flooding Parks and Public Lands and a friend of the Transportation Research Board Special Task scenarios, a hedonic pricing model that Force on Climate Change and Energy. She graduated from Harvard University with a captured the increased housing value of degree in Environmental Science and Public Policy. adaptation measures, a neighborhood- level cost-effectiveness case study, and a CCBJ: It sounds like an economic mod- CCBJ: Tell us about the four partners citywide business case analysis. Invest- eling project as much or more than the you listed on the project. What were ment scenarios (no-action versus public natural systems, but clearly your models their roles and what was their expertise versus private) and stormwater events had to depend on climate data and future that helped complete and communi- (King Tide, 5-year, 10-year, and mod- scenarios. Knowing ICF has expertise cate the work? erate hurricane events) enabled the city in climate information, what sources Cassie Bhat: Integration of expertise to right-size and prioritize its resilience did you draw from to have the highest across a wide range of technical domains investments. confidence in your Miami model ? was central to the success of this work. Our Cassandra Bhat: The City of Miami partners each played a critical role: • Brizaga provided expertise in both sea Beach uses sea level rise projections from level rise communication and resilience • Kimley-Horn and Associates per- the Southeast Florida Climate Change engineering. They developed and analyzed formed detailed hydrologic modeling that Compact for planning purposes. So, for adaptation strategies for individual home- showed the combined effects of sea level this project, we relied on those projections owners in the City, and also prepared final rise, heavy rain events, storm surge, and for future sea level rise, which are estab- public communication materials to share various infrastructure investment scenar- lished by an expert panel in the region. We the final results of the project. ios on flooding in the City. also reviewed historical tide gage data to • Florida Atlantic University’s Center estimate King Tide ranges. • AIR Worldwide is a leading catastro- for Environmental Solutions, via Dr. Co- phe modeling and risk assessment firm. lin Polsky, served as a key advisor and ex- CCBJ: What was the absolutely worst They modeled sea level rise effects on pert reviewer throughout the project. scenario, and how much economic storm surge and the associated expected damage does that scenario threaten? Or losses Citywide. Using the results of the ICF led the project overall and oversaw put another way, what was the highest Kimley-Horn stormwater modeling, they the integration of the different modeling estimated cost of inaction? also estimated the effect of the City’s pro- tasks. ICF also developed a hedonic model to estimate effects of flooding and invest- Cassie Bhat: The highest estimated cost posed investments on reducing annual ments on property values in the City, and of inaction is about $2 billion, driven pri- expected losses. Finally, they provided es- led the overall economic analysis to esti- marily by potential hurricane-related dam- timates of the overall change in average mate the combined economic impacts and ages (exacerbated by sea level rise), and annual losses—and associated insurance cost-effectiveness of different investment potential decline in property values from premiums—under the different invest- scenarios. more frequent tidal flooding. ment scenarios. 11 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021

CCBJ: We are seeing shoreline climate ments such as flood barriers offer nearly $3 done several projects to help them both resilience investments made by neigh- in benefits for every $1 invested. For indi- define what they mean by “nature-based borhoods along certain coasts. They are vidual residential homeowners, dry-flood- solutions” and understand the opportuni- increasing safety and quality of life, but proofing existing homes, and elevating any ties and challenges associated with it. For presumably they’re also adding value new construction or major renovations example, we developed an implementation to their homes and property, so tell us would be highly cost-effective. guide on nature-based solutions for coastal about your hedonic pricing model and highway resilience for the Federal High- how that estimate added value for the CCBJ: In South Florida are most of the way Administration (FHWA). We are also homeowner or community? seawall structures going to be built on exploring the use of nature-based solutions land or out in the water? in all of our municipal client’s adaptation Cassie Bhat: That’s exactly right. He- planning efforts. We expect to see con- donic pricing modeling is a statistical anal- Cassie Bhat: In the part of south Flori- tinued strong interest in this topic from ysis approach used to isolate how much da we were working in on this project, the our clients, be they federal, state, local, or people are willing to pay for a particular primary discussion is about seawalls on commercial, given the multiple benefits of housing or property characteristic. If non- land. That said, our analysis focused mainly nature-based solutions. environmental factors are controlled for, on other types of protections, including any remaining discrepancies in price repre- increases in stormwater pumping, road el- Many clients are hesitant to pursue sent differences in the good’s external sur- evation, and protective changes to private coastal nature-based solutions because roundings. In this case, we analyzed over 14 real estate. they can be very hard to permit. ICF has years’ worth of data on residential property significant expertise in environmental CCBJ: Assuming doing this work on sales to analyze the effects of parcel eleva- compliance and permitting and we look economic analysis around the value of tion and nearby road elevation—which are forward to helping more clients approach investment in resiliency and climate ad- measures for the property’s flood risk—on that process in a streamlined way to make aptation is convincing and bolster argu- its value, controlling for multiple other fac- it less daunting. ments to accelerate investment in many tors known to affect property values, such other jurisdictions, how do we best carry We also think a key strength of ICF as square footage, lot size, building age, that message to municipal and state and in advising our clients is that we are truly proximity to various amenities, and more. city governments? solution agnostic—we keep a very open The results of the model showed that mind and look to a broad range of solu- Cassie Bhat: It’s important to make the home prices are higher for parcels with tions (everything from land use planning business case in as simple and straightfor- more elevated surrounding roads (a 4.9- to infrastructure to nature-based solu- ward ways as possible, and also to empha- 14.1% increase per foot, depending on the tions to community capacity-building and size where results are universal or transfer- starting elevation), and for parcels with beyond). Then our role is to help clients rable, and where they are locally specific. higher average elevations (an 8.5-11.5% evaluate all of their options and find the For this analysis, obviously the specific increase per foot). These results suggest combination that meets their numerous effects of the City’s proposed investments that City’s investments to reduce road objectives. (increasing certain pipe sizes, installing a flooding would benefit nearby property specific pump station, etc.) are unique to values. Private investments in parcel el- CCBJ: Is there a case where you this project, but the broader messages that evation are also likely to increase property might partner with an investor or asset these types of investments to reduce flood- values. holder to monetize the environmen- ing can benefit property values, reduce in- tal and climate value of an ecosystem or CCBJ: Did you establish a priority of surance rates, reduce direct damages, and a defined natural asset? investments based on rate of return? improve quality of life are universal. Cassie Bhat: Yes. We currently work And are community-based smaller-scale CCBJ: Coastal resilience and natural or with institutional investors to identify investments in coastal protection at or ‘nature-based’ solutions have become risks from climate change to their natural near the top? popular terms. How does ICF brand its resource investments. Valuation of natural Cassie Bhat: The primary purpose of services or practices areas in this field? infrastructure can often be critical so that this analysis was not to evaluate or com- it is assessed in comparable terms to grey Cassie Bhat: I wouldn’t say we “brand” pare different investment types against one infrastructure. There are a range of eco- our services in this field in a particular way. another. That said, we did determine that, nomic techniques that we can apply for We have seen a lot of interest from our cli- at the neighborhood scale, private invest- this sort of valuation. R ents on this topic in recent years and have 12 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021

Orion Environmental Uses GHG Emission Reductions to While many regulatory agencies speak Drive Efficiency in Green Remediation Projects to the importance of GSR, we have seen variability in the degree to which they prioritize sustainability. For example with Orion Environmental Inc. was founded in 1994 with a mission to create a safer world for California’s Regional Water Boards, we its families and community. Today, this mission remains true in its approach to providing mean- have seen the level of importance set by ingful solutions to environmental problems. Headquartered in Long Beach, California, Orion Executive Officers, with some considering also has additional offices in Berkeley and Newbury Park, California, and Denver, Colorado. GSR highly important and others finding Orion provides leading edge site investigation, remediation, and environmental compliance ser- it less important than achieving maximum vices nationwide for clients in both the public and private sectors, including Fortune 100 compa- remediation. In the event that a particular nies, all while maintaining a perfect safety record. Orion is a certified California Small Business agency places less value on sustainability, Enterprise. Being small but thinking big is a fundamental tenet of Orion’s business operations. the principles can still be considered in- Michael Purchase, P.E., is Orion’s technical director with over 25 years of experience ternally and incorporated to meet agency in environmental consulting and is a registered civil engineer. He directs project teams requirements. Based on environmental throughout California and serves as Orion’s national account manager for a major oil footprint analyses, monitoring or reme- company. He has experience in wastewater engineering and compliance, assessment and dial methods may be altered and while still remediation of complex petroleum hydrocarbon and chlorinated solvent sites, and regula- achieving successful site cleanup. R tory agency negotiations including expertise in the application of risk-based environmen- tal standards. Mr. Purchase received a B.S. in environmental science from the University CCBJ Award: GHG Reduction in of California, Riverside, and an M.E. in civil engineering from Texas A&M University. Remediation rion Environmental Inc. for the CCBJ: Congratulations on achieving have shown that the impacts of alternative accelerated shutdown of active remediation Targets on behalf of your investigations or remedies often outweigh Oremedial systems and the reduction in clients, and also significantly reducing the environmental and social footprints of groundwater monitoring at a complex the carbon footprint of these projects. I continuing on an established path. site that yielded a 99% reduction in sus- imagine that reducing the use of energy tainability indicators from 2016 to 2020, intensive remediation technologies that CCBJ: Green remediation is certainly including greenhouse gas and air emis- have been proven effective over the years not an entirely new concept but do you sions, water and energy usage, and ac- involves a fair amount of risk analysis and believe that regulators are more in tune cident risks. The site contains two active contaminant modeling to support great- to the broader impacts of a remediation bulk fuel terminals and a former retail er use of natural attenuation and other project outside of just the contaminants gasoline station since 2016 with multiple methods. Has this been a significant part in question or contaminants of concern? water-bearing zones, heterogeneous li- of your practice area in remediation be- We have found regulators to be increas- thology, and residential and surface water sides the sample project for which you ingly amenable to factoring in green & receptors. Remedial operations in 2016 were recognized with our award? sustainable remediation (GSR) in reme- included: Dual-phase extraction and oxy- Thank you for highlighting projects that dial decisions. Human health protection gen injection systems; Monthly LNAPL are incorporating sustainability into deci- remains the highest priority, but sustain- monitoring and recovery; and Quarterly sion-making. Our client for this particular ability is a large piece of holistic site man- to annual groundwater monitoring at 90 project strongly values sustainable reme- agement. This can be helpful in gaining monitoring wells. Orion’s sustainability diation. That has helped provide an oppor- approval for trial system shutdowns or initiatives optimize remedial operations tunity to reevaluate remedial technologies revisiting shutdown criteria for example. which resulted in: Natural attenuation and closure strategies at a number of sites. In communicating with regulators, we rates in groundwater exceeding calculat- To improve sustainability, we have focused have received requests to share our data on ed contaminant mass discharge rates suf- on utilizing existing (generally extensive) GHG reductions as those metrics are val- ficient to achieve remedial objectives; and historical data sets to analyze plume be- ued alongside standards such as contami- Regulatory approvals for remedial system havior, remediation system effectiveness, nant mass removal. shutdowns and suspension of LNAPL and risk at sites. In some cases, additional recovery. A 2020 plume stability analysis data collection or remediation is necessary, CCBJ: How do you think this regulatory resulted in regulatory approval for a 40 but sustainability assessments (performed perception varies by region or by level of percent reduction in the monitoring and in planning and after project completion) government jurisdiction? analytical program. 13 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021

WSP Triples its Client Base in Climate Risk Adaptation and Emily Wasley: For over two decades, Resilience Services in 2020; TCFD is a Big Deal WSP’s Sustainability, Energy and Climate Change (SECC) team has been engaged in projects that relate to the TCFD, par- WSP USA is the U.S. operating company of WSP, one of the world’s leading engineering and ticularly projects that help our corporate professional services firms. Dedicated to serving local communities, we are engineers, planners, clients’ transition to a low- or zero-carbon technical experts, strategic advisors and construction management professionals. WSP USA de- economy. Since 2015, WSP’s SECC team signs lasting solutions in the buildings, transportation, energy, water and environment markets. has been conducting scenario analysis to With more than 10,000 employees in 170 offices across the U.S., we partner with our clients to assess and address climate-related risks help communities prosper. and opportunities. We started this type of Emily Wasley leads WSP USA’s corporate climate risk, adaptation and resilience prac- analysis with one of our largest clients in tice, bringing more than 16 years of experience in the climate change, sustainability, ad- the IT and software industry and have seen aptation and resilience fields. Through her experience, she has partnered with government consistent growth in this space since the entities, water utilities and Fortune 50 to 500 corporations to institutionalize climate TCFD recommendations were officially considerations into existing risk management, business continuity and sustainability ef- released in 2017. forts. Ms. Wasley serves as a west coast Future ReadyTM Advisor for WSP USA, Presi- However, in 2020, we experienced sig- dent of the Board of Directors for the American Society of Adaptation Professionals nificant growth in our climate risk, adapta- (ASAP), Chair of the Outreach and Connection Committee for Women in Climate tion and resilience services due to increas- Tech (WiCT), a fellow to the American Security Project (ASP), and a Blue Endeavors ing financial impacts from climate-related Ambassador. She holds a master of arts in environmental and natural resources policy risks, investor requests for enhanced trans- from George Washington University and a bachelor of arts in public policy and environ- parency and disclosure, regulatory changes, mental studies from Hamilton College. and demand for more sustainable and re- CCBJ: Congratulations on tripling your munities. There are many lessons we have silience goods and services. client base in climate risk adaptation learned through COVID that our clients and resilience services in 2020. It seems have synthesized to enhance their over- There is growing recognition of the demand for these services has been im- all enterprise risk management processes, impacts of climate change to the financial mune to COVID or do you think growth business continuity planning, and employ- sector — the value at risk of the global could have been even higher? ee wellness efforts. total stock of manageable assets could be from $4.2 trillion to $43 trillion between Emily Wasley: The year 2020 was truly We had several projects already under- now and the end of the century. Investors pivotal for many reasons. The global pan- way focused on climate risk and resilience rely on disclosure to assess portfolio risks demic was on the forefront of everyone’s prior to COVID hitting and we hired a cli- and before the TCFD framework was re- minds along with record-breaking wild- mate risk, adaptation and resilience leader leased, no consistent, effective or compa- fires, and political unrest and racial tension to lead and grow this practice in 2019, so rable method for disclosing physical and across the United States. The combination we were in a good position to be of ser- transition climate-related risks and oppor- of these factors led to increased urgency vice to our clients during these challeng- tunities existed. from publicly-traded and privately-held ing times. We believe the demand for our companies to enhance their environmen- climate risk, adaptation and resilience ser- The Paris agreement in 2015 demon- tal, social, and governance (ESG) efforts vices will continue to grow due to our ex- strated to investors and the business com- — going beyond sustainability to begin tensive experience aligning, implementing munity that governments worldwide were identifying and managing their climate- and advancing beyond the recommenda- beginning to take climate change seriously. related risks and opportunities through tions of the Task Force on Climate-related And market growth and customer demand resilience. Financial Disclosures (TCFD). related to resource efficiencies, innovation, resilience and economic advancements are I would not say these services are im- CCBJ: How early in the process did accelerating. The combination of these mune to COVID, but instead they are you get involved in the Task Force on drivers contributed to the overall growth services that have shown to be incredibly Climate-related Financial Disclosures in our client’s interest to align with and effective methods to assessing and manag- (TCFD)...and how substantial of a mar- implement the TCFD recommendations. ing systemic stresses and acute shocks to ket driver and compliance market do you The investor requests and government enterprise operations, employees, infra- believe it will be over time? structure, financial health, and host com- compliance are the most frequent drivers 14 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021 for our clients to align with TCFD. We CCBJ Award: Climate Change Adaptation & Resilience expect that to grow in the United States given the new administration’s increased WSP USA tripled the number of clients to which it provides climate risk, ad- focus on climate change and their com- aptation and resilience services in 2020, and grew its related revenue by more than mitment to make climate-related financial 185% due in part to growth in its Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclo- disclosures mandatory. sures (TCFD) services. Since 2015, WSP has partnered with over 20 different clients across industries — financial services, banking, information technology, transport, CCBJ: TCFD-related services were a aerospace and defense, luxury goods, lodging, engineering and construction and gov- significant driver you have noted, but ernment – to provide technical and strategic support for our clients to align with do you see an equal contribution from and implement the recommendations of the TCFD. In 2020, WSP TCFD services public disclosures and commitments of grew from assessing alignment with the TCFD recommendations and benchmark- carbon neutrality? ing progress against peers, to understanding material and substantive financial risks and opportunities, fully supporting TCFD filings and disclosures, and co-designing Emily Wasley: Absolutely. Overall, and implementing multi-year TCFD roadmaps to operationalize sustainability and our Sustainability, Energy and Climate resilience into the fabric of client enterprises. Through these services, WSP works Change services grew more than 40% in to advance their clients’ TCFD journey by actively reducing greenhouse gas emis- 2020 from 2019 levels after expanding by sions, investing in clean, renewable energy, managing physical acute and chronic risks, 45% over 2018 levels. We have seen a sea adapting to the changes already facing the world, and strengthening resilience across change in the marketplace over the last the enterprise, supply chain, and within local host communities. several years.

Expectations of stakeholders such as making these transitions. This involves on-the-ground actions in place to advance employees, customers, investors and com- not only informing effected communities their commitments to transition to a low- munity partners have moved well beyond about changes but also engaging them or zero-carbon economy and manage their simple disclosure to a demonstration of early in the planning and metrics develop- current and future climate risks and op- progress toward science-based targets and ment process. portunities. This takes time, resources and net zero. At the same time, the evolved leadership buy-in; however, as noted ear- Circling back to the question at hand, perception of sustainability as a central lier, investing in aligning with the TCFD one of the reasons that WSP has experi- part of business models rather than merely recommendations and enhancing enter- enced such significant growth in TCFD- a necessary cost center has altered the in- prise sustainability and resilience has prov- related services, broader public disclosure, ternal discussion about what needs to be en to be incredibly effective during time of targets and goal setting and actions to get done within the executive suite of our cli- uncertainty. to net zero is that clients have become ents. Those that had been waiting on the much more interested in a comprehensive, For example, not only do we conduct sideline are now anxious to get into the holistic set of solutions on which we can future scenario analysis to assess the po- game in a big way, and those who have deliver. tential financial impacts on assets, em- been in the game, gaining experience and ployees, operations, supply chains and host expertise while exploring where they fit in CCBJ: If we regard TCFD as mostly a communities, but we validate those analy- the overall effort, are making a significant ‘front-end’ planning and strategy exer- sis findings through site visits (which have push to more aggressive, holistic programs. cise, and later a ‘back-end’ reporting and been virtual because of COVID restric- Many of our clients are working hard benchmarking exercise, what about the tions) with the local facility engineers and to understand what carbon neutrality and middle of executing the major projects managers. These site visits allow us to hear net zero mean to them and the broader for carbon reduction, renewable energy, from the leads on the ground what they sectors in which they compete. An increas- and even generating carbon credits? have experienced historically related to cli- ing number are asking for our support in How big a commitment is WSP making mate change and extreme weather events expanding their influence across the value to those markets and to the engineering, and how they are addressing those im- chain, with their suppliers and downstream construction, contracting and operation pacts. The site visits then leads to specific to their consumers, including altering & maintenance project opportunities in recommendations to assess the feasibility products and services to wring additional the middle? of achieving carbon neutrality: investing in carbon out of the economy. And, of course, Emily Wasley: In order to truly align on-site renewable energy to achieve green- there is an exponential and long overdue with the TCFD recommendations, com- house gas reduction goals and enhance focus on ensuring equity and justice while panies need to have processes, policies and redundancies to energy sources; updating 15 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021 design standards; and retrofitting buildings Element Markets Continues Growth and Expansion to New to improve energy and water efficiencies Houston HQ in a Challenging 2020; Builds on its Leadership and resilience to extreme weather. in RNG and Completes a Partnership Deal with TPG So, although the TCFD recommen- dations are mainly focused on public Element Markets, LLC, is a leading renewable natural gas marketing and environmen- disclosure, there are significant behind- tal commodities company that applies its diverse expertise to provide structured environmental the-scenes actions taking place within compliance and optimization services to corporate and institutional clients. The company has organizations that are being implemented a successful track record within the renewable natural gas, low carbon fuels, emissions, carbon, on-the-ground now and reported out on in and renewable energy credit markets. Founded in 2005, Element Markets is headquartered in the future. Houston, Texas.

CCBJ: As corporations have gotten Angela Schwarz, Chief Executive Officer, joined Element in 2007. She has over two larger and larger in many industries and decades of experience in the energy industry, and closed over $3 billion of energy out- assumed larger market shares in their sourcing and infrastructure contracts with Fortune 100 companies in both the deregulated markets, one assumed that they would and regulated power and gas markets. Angela joined Element Markets as Vice President build internal capacity around some of of Development and under her direction, the Company built a successful development the functions related to environmental portfolio of wind, solar, methane, and greenhouse gas mitigation projects. In 2012, An- and climate risk and resilience man- gela was promoted to President and CEO and has led the company through the evolu- agement. However, it appears that the tion of the environmental commodities market place. Prior to joining Element, Angela Consulting & Engineering industry was Managing Director at Enron Energy Services (EES) responsible for running EES’s continues to grow and expand and offer commercial origination group. Following Enron’s bankruptcy in 2001, Angela worked more externalized services and many on behalf of the Creditor’s Committee until 2003 to manage the liquidation of some of of these larger corporations are indeed EES’s most valuable assets. She also held senior sales and operating positions at Trilogy outsourcing much of the analysis and and Honeywell. strategy at this point, and therefore may outsource the execution and operation Randall Lack is a successful entrepreneur within the environmental commodity and and maintenance of resilience programs alternative energy industries for almost two decades. In 2005, he co-founded Element in the future. Do you agree that as the and currently serves as Co-President. Mr. Lack’s extensive experience in structuring en- complexity of overall risk management vironmental commodity transactions including biogas, emissions, renewable energy cred- has increased, so has the market share of its, and greenhouse gases has eclipsed $1 Billion in total transactions completed, which outsourced services and the expert con- has led him to be recognized as one of the top executives in the environmental markets. sultants such as WSP and the climate Randall is an acclaimed speaker and media resource in the areas of Biomethane, Renew- change consulting industry? able Energy Credits, Greenhouse Gas Trading, Regional Emission Markets, and pending emissions legislation and was a founding Board Member of the Renewable Natural Gas Emily Wasley: Yes I agree! But the way Coalition. In 2013, Randall was awarded the recognition of 40 under 40 by the Houston we work with our clients is very much as Business Journal recognizing him as one of the most influential young people in business a true partnership. We are seeing more in Houston. He received his BBA in Business from the University of Houston. company’s hiring climate risk and resil- ience leads who are specifically dedicated CCBJ: Congratulations on your busi- With the lack of a federal mandate un- to aligning the company with the TCFD ness achievements in 2020 and growing der the past administration, corporate and recommendations and enhancing the in both revenues and staff. Would you institutional mandates stepped into the overall resilience of the company to cli- say that the carbon and biogas markets void. The first month of this administra- mate change and other systemic threats. have been immune to covid-19? Or what tion has confirmed an earnest commitment But while they are hiring a lead, there is a have been the major challenge points to to both global and national environmental continued and growing need for technical 2020 for Element Markets? stewardship, and with the continued sup- SMEs and experts to support those leads Angela Schwarz: Despite the initial port from the private sector, we expect hy- to analyze risks and feasibility for actions, market shocks across all sectors in March per-growth in the renewable fuels and low support planning and implementation ef- 2020, we see tremendous market momen- carbon manufacturing sectors. forts, and transform the business now and tum for decarbonizing the natural gas The initial COVID-related market dis- into the future. R complex as it pivots toward renewable ruptions with respect to major oil produc- natural gas. 16 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021 ers and the transportation markets required CCBJ Award: COVID Resilience & Business Growth in 2020 immediate rebalancing of our RNG posi- tions and almost daily communications Element Markets for successfully navigating the challenges of 2020, finishing the with all our RNG producers and off-tak- year with growth in revenues and staff, including several senior-level key hires, and ers. Adding to the challenge, this coincided a move to new Houston offices to accommodate growth. Founded in 2005, Element with a period when we were transitioning Markets is a renewable natural gas marketing and environmental commodities com- our offices to remote work. I am exception- pany providing structured environmental compliance and optimization services with ally proud of how our teams managed price a track record in renewable natural gas (RNG), low carbon fuels, emissions, carbon, volatility, compliance and systems balanc- and renewable energy credit markets. RNG milestones in 2020 included; 180,000 ing over the six-month period it took for metric tonnes of greenhouse gas reductions achieved on behalf of a county transit au- the markets to find some footing. I know thority; A new RNG facility commissioning and pipeline injection for a major swine we are emerging from COVID a stronger RNG/utility joint venture; Three hydrogen fuel pathways for RNG under California’s company having stood side by side with Low Carbon Fuel Standard that had three of the top 15 lowest carbon intensity not only our producers but with our off- scores for LCFS pathways as of December 2020. Element Markets was a multiple take partners as well. Zoom and Teams first-place winner in the Environmental Finance Annual Market Survey, including calls taking us into the homes of our em- repeat “best” designations across Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs), Re- ployees, clients, counterparties, and ven- gional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), and California Greenhouse Gas Markets. dors fostered an intimacy that I believe has forged new bonds that will serve us all well CCBJ: The growth in carbon neutral- CCBJ: We see that Element Markets as we navigate the post-COVID recovery. ity commitments made by corpora- counts Smithfield Foods, the world’s tions must be a strong market driver largest pork processor, global cosmetic CCBJ: How substantial was the fall for your business. Tell us how you have brand L’Oréal SA, and U.S. utility Do- of oil prices and any dynamics in oil integrated your services into these long- minion Energy among its clients. How and natural gas prices to your project term pledges and how you can use that are you evolving different value propo- development in 2020, and are we safe in as a platform to grow the business into sitions for different long-term strate- assuming that the price of conventional adjacent markets in the future? gies for companies like this in different fuels will have a decreasing impact on sectors? your business prospects over time? Randall Lack: We see a lot of oppor- tunity as more organizations are adopting Angela Schwarz: We have a team of Randall Lack: We are largely insulated carbon neutral pledges, and that offers the seasoned subject matter experts that track from the underlying commodity price, but ideal avenue for our combined solutions regulations, pricing, and compliance re- we are affected by the overall demand for across environmental product lines. For quirements to develop solutions for our the product, so the decrease in consump- instance, a company may initially seek clients. Regardless the sector our clients tion during COVID did affect the under- emissions credits to meet compliance re- reside in, they are all looking to achieve lying prices, but we made up for that with quirements, and as we build that trusted the greatest possible value and impact new volume coming online. relationship over time, we can present ways from their environmental compliance and voluntary sustainability investments. We Looking at today, the energy transi- to meet voluntary climate commitments, seek to cultivate deep, long-term relation- tion is underway and larger-scale efforts such as sourcing renewable natural gas or ships with our clients so we can anticipate to decarbonize our economy are going to high-quality verified carbon offsets to help their needs measured against where we see keep intensifying. The immediate actions progress a net zero goal. markets trending and regulations evolv- by the Biden administration signal that We have had a lot of success helping ing—and ultimately work toward securing the administration is committed deeply to fleet operators mine the full benefits of a cleaner, more sustainable future. climate policies that will incentivize low low carbon fuel programs like California’s and zero emissions energy sources. When LCFS. As these programs expand to ad- CCBJ: Production of animal waste must thinking about how things will evolve lon- ditional states increasing numbers of large be a large source of input material for ger term, one of the advantages of a renew- companies will seek to incorporate renew- biogas. Are you finding your engineers able fuel source like RNG is that it can be ables and low/zero-carbon fleets into their are having more success with relatively injected into existing natural gas pipeline operations and we are ready to help them uniform feedstocks or does a mix of infrastructure, which will help ease the optimize the value of that participation. multiple inputs create more consistent overall energy transition. output and biogas product quality? 17 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021

Angela Schwarz: We work with our kets. This was not a transaction we were Siemens Energy and DOE Target clients regardless of the feedstock to help seeking when we got to know The Rise the Hydrogen Market them achieve the lowest possible compli- Fund, and we quickly realized that they are ant Carbon Intensity (CI) scores for their a like-minded organization that will allow n March 2021, Siemens Energy an- respective projects through feedstock and us to take Element Markets to the next Inounced a U.S. Department of Energy data management as well as facility-specif- level. We are at a major inflection point in grant-funded project to study how its Si- ic engineering to optimize the value of the terms of sustainability investing and envi- lyzer electrolyzers could be combined with RNG. Agricultural waste projects yield the ronmental markets, and we welcome this hydrogen compression, storage and power lowest CI scores and sustainable environ- opportunity to accelerate and expand our plant controls technology to convert the mental impact; however, they are capital pursuits within these markets. Element Intermountain Power Project, a coal-fired intensive and more difficult to operate. is a good fit with The Rise Fund as their power plant in Utah. The 840-MW plant first U.S. carbon/renewable energy-based serves customers all the way to LA De- CCBJ: Do you expect a strong market investment, and we are excited to be a plat- partment of Water and Power, and is con- for merchant power plants in biogas sim- form asset for future growth in this space verting to turbines that will use natural gas ilar to how many wind farms built with with Rise. blended with 30% hydrogen, a proportion independent power producers and then that will rise to 100% hydrogen over the selling assets to the utilities? Is that a CCBJ: And finally, I note your involve- coming decades. logical pathway for biogas? ment in the hydrogen market. Was that The plant could become a source of part of the attraction to The Rise Fund Randall Lack: I do not think it follows ‘green hydrogen’ energy fueled by hydro- or do you have a multi-source clean the same path. The merchant power plants gen stored in underground caverns — pro- energy strategy long-term? could be built because of the advanced fi- vided systems to use renewable energy to nancial structures that existed as hedges. Angela Schwarz: Element perfectly convert water to hydrogen via electrolysis Some developers can afford to build mer- complements TPG and The Rise Fund’s and store it can combine in a cost-effective chant, and are being rewarded for their risk portfolio companies ranging from solar way. The grant is the latest of three grants taking, but overall, most of the projects developers and software providers, to EV to Siemens Energy to test its hydrogen need debt, and therefore some fixed priced charging networks, and electric bikes. The technology in the U.S., including a pilot off-take. Rise Fund plans to partner with Element with Duke Energy and Clemson Univer- Markets to support the high growth tra- sity, and another to design, build and test CCBJ: Congratulations on your trans- jectory of the company and to expand into a compressor system to integrate hydrogen action to partner with The Rise Fund, accelerating markets such as hydrogen. We into existing fossil fuel generation. Sie- TPG’s impact investing platform. How are always looking for new ways to opti- mens and global power giants Mitsubishi long was that deal in the making and mize our and our clients’ participation in Power, General Electric and Wärtsilä are what opportunities does that open up? existing and emerging clean energy mar- designing a new generation of turbines and engines to run on hydrogen. While Mit- Randall Lack: Thank you and this is an kets when and where it makes strategic R subishi won the contract to supply turbines exciting time for all of us at Element Mar- sense to pursue those opportunities. to Intermountain, “we have a good shot TPG’s The Rise Fund Acquires a Majority Stake in Element Markets to create the hydrogen” to fuel them, said Richard Voorberg, vice president of global n January 2021, The Rise Fund, a global impact investing platform managed by service operations for Siemens Energy. alternative asset firm TPG, announced it had acquired a majority stake in Element Notes: What is called brown hydrogen is MarketsI LLC, an independent marketer of renewable natural gas and environmental created through coal gasification. Grey hydro- commodities in North America. Element Markets is a provider of greenhouse gas gen is produced from natural gas using Steam reductions via offsets and renewable natural gas to several Fortune 100 companies. Methane Reforming (SMR) or Auto Thermal Founded in 2005, Element has transacted over 50,000,000 tonnes of greenhouse gas Reforming (ATR). Blue hydrogen uses carbon credits. Mike Stone, CIO of The Rise Fund, and Marc Mezvinsky, business unit part- capture and storage for the greenhouse gases ner within TPG, will join Element’s board of directors. The acquisition of Element produced in the creation of grey hydrogen. Markets represents The Rise Fund’s second recent investment in the climate trans- Green hydrogen production uses renewable formation and renewable energy space. In July 2020, The Rise Fund acquired 1 giga- energy, typically solar or wind powering wa- watt of solar PV projects from Trina Solar to anchor the portfolio of newly created, ter electrolysis where an electric current breaks Madrid-based Matrix Renewables. H2O into hydrogen and oxygen . 18 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021

EA Engineering Science and Technology Doubles its Coastal EA began formally using the term Resilience Practice in 2020; Sharpens its Focus on Natural coastal resilience in 2018 as part of the inception of our strategic practice area. As and Nature-Based Solutions recognized by our 2020 CCBJ award, EA’s Coastal Resilience practice area has expe- EA Engineering Science and Technology,Inc. PBC (Hunt Valley, Md.) is a 100% employ- rienced exponential growth, which reflects ee-owned public benefit corporation that provides environmental, compliance, natural resources, the increased attention that the term and and infrastructure engineering and management solutions to a wide range of public and private the practice itself holds within our indus- sector clients. EA reported $150 million in revenues in 2019, all in environmental consulting try. While use of the term coastal resilience & engineering. is likely to evolve over the coming years, we are proud to be a leader in the industry that Sam Whitin, CERP, Vice President and Director, Coastal Resilience—With over 20 promotes a more sustainable and produc- years of experience, Sam provides national leadership of EA’s coastal resilience practice. tive coastline—whatever the current defi- In this position, he is focused on developing and implementing nature-based and engi- nition of those efforts might be. neered strategies to improve ecosystems and communities for EA clients challenged by sea level rise and degraded habitats—for the present as well as the future. His experi- CCBJ: You say the coastal resilience ence includes projects such as coastal vulnerability assessments; dam removals; tidal estu- practice is focused on natural and ary enhancements to improve resiliency, water quality, and shellfish habitat; fish passage nature-based solutions. We at Climate through the installation of fish ladders and downstream passage; and floodplain habitat Change Business Journal recently took a improvements and rehabilitations. As an advocate for innovative technologies and meth- confident leap of faith to put definitional odologies, Sam is a nationally recognized expert on the beneficial use of dredged material parameters around what we call ‘Natural to restore coastal ecosystems. Sam holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Biology from Infrastructure’ and our role in civilized Bates College. He is a Certified Ecological Restoration Practitioner (CERP) through the communities to rebuild and restore Society of Ecological Restoration. and even operate and maintain natural CCBJ: I know the company has been quently use the term after Sandy, it was not infrastructure around us on behalf of performing work along the coasts and until then President Obama’s 2013 Execu- either a paying client or based on the rivers since the early 1970s, thanks to tive Order 13653 (entitled Preparing the contribution of that natural asset to the the moving presentation about your United States for the Impacts of Climate ocean or to the local ecosystem or to the founder Dr. Loren Jensen. How did the Change) that other federal agencies fol- atmosphere. Does EA look at natural term coastal resilience come about in the lowed suit and began incorporating the infrastructure the same way, and do you market and for your practice, and now term and the practice itself into their poli- plan to generate more and more reve- becoming common parlance amongst cies and decision frameworks. nues from the management and develop- the DoD and Army Corps of Engineers ment of natural infrastructure? The use of natural and nature-based and Bureau of Land Management? features is viewed as an integral compo- Sam Whitin: For the most part, EA Sam Whitin: Widespread use of the nent of this approach since these types does look at natural infrastructure in the term coastal resilience gathered signifi- of features have long been understood to same way and we certainly agree that valu- cant momentum after Superstorm Sandy be inherently more resilient. EA was well ing natural infrastructure is a daunting impacted a wide swath of the East Coast positioned to support this renewed focus task. As mentioned in the Fall 2020 edi- in 2012. This event coincided with a more on improving natural features along the tion of the CCBJ, we see the emerging pervasive acceptance by the public that cli- U.S. coastlines as we have supported as- field of the valuation of ecosystem services mate change would increase the frequency sessment and ecosystem restoration efforts as being a necessary first step in creating in which these types of storms would im- in coastal habitats since our company’s in- market drivers that fund efforts to create pact our coastlines and, as such, there was ception in 1973. Our “science to solution” or restore natural infrastructure. a recognition that the re-building process process reduces life-cycle protection costs One area where we hold a different by providing sustainable long-term solu- should develop infrastructure that would view than the authors is in defining natural tions—enabling coastal ecosystems and be more resilient to these significant infrastructure only as those natural systems communities to withstand and recover coastal events. While agencies like U.S. that are actively managed. I would sug- more rapidly from associated disruptions Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and gest that by discounting those unmanaged with comparatively less damage. Federal Emergency Management Agency natural systems, we miss the opportunity (FEMA) almost immediately began to fre- to value the ecosystem services that these 19 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021

CCBJ Award: Climate Change Adaptation & Resilience Sam Whitin: In regard to the CCBJ’s valuation of Earth’s services, I applaud the EA Engineering Science and Technology for the growth of its Coastal Resil- effort as it is important to recognize that ience practice. Revenues of EA’s Coastal Resilience practice, focused on natural and we are borrowing from future generations nature-based solutions, doubled in 2020 and added significant contract wins. This with our every action that results in a net accelerated growth is attributable to increased need to conserve and restore coastal negative impact upon natural assets. Re- habitats and ecosystems negatively impacted by climate change and the expanded garding where the value of certain natural availability of public funding to develop and implement resilience strategies. In 2020, assets fall in relation to one another, I am EA was awarded coastal resilience contracts in multiple market sectors. Most sig- particularly interested in where the “ice cap” nificant wins include National Park Service (NPS) Coastal Engineering and Hazards assets are comparatively valued. An initial Assistance, National Audubon Society, and as a team member supporting a grant thought relates to changing of the label “ice under National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Ecological Effects of Sea cap” to that of “cryosphere”, which is more Level Rise program. EA continues to be a major contributor in developing new and likely to convey the importance of services updating existing guidance and decision-making documents, such as updating NPS’s provided by permafrost and all glaciers as Beach Nourishment Guidance and developing Department of Defense Legacy Pro- compared to how a reader might com- gram’s Cultural Resource Adaptation to Climate Change guidance document. EA prehend services provided by just the “ice has become a nationally recognized as a leader in natural and nature-based responses cap”. Specific to the value of the cryosphere – applying proven tactics that reduce life-cycle protection costs by providing sustain- itself, and as briefly described in the Fall able long-term solutions. CCBJ column entitled ‘Putting a Price Tag on the Melting of the Polar Ice Caps’, the systems provide and would thereby be un- drivers as natural infrastructure banking, economic value assigned to the cryosphere able to compare the costs and benefits in there is plenty of activity being driven by is evaluated over a 40-year period. How- allowing climate change processes to al- public agencies that is not associated with ever, similar to atmospheric values, loss of ter one natural system in favor of another banking. Specifically, the FEMA Building these services is currently viewed as likely natural system. Resilient Infrastructure and Communities being irreversible, and as such I would sug- gest that just looking at a 40-year valuation For example, in the absence of manage- (BRIC) Grant Program is programed at period would significantly undervalue the ment actions and other anthropogenic fac- $500 million and contains requirements asset. tors, a coastal marsh in North Carolina will that score state and local government ap- plicants higher for the use of natural infra- migrate inland as sea levels rise. As those Additionally, the regulating services structure in their approaches to mitigating marsh areas are inundated, they convert to provided by the cryosphere such as meth- impacts associated with disaster events. open water habitat; and inland areas where ane and CO2 sequestration, moderating the marsh is migrating into are converted The Water Resource Development Act the rising of sea levels, and temperature from forested areas and into coastal marsh. (WRDA) of 2020 also mandates that US- controls when combined with the pro- Without classifying these unmanaged ar- ACE value natural infrastructure in the visioning services such as fresh water as- eas as natural infrastructure, we are un- cost/benefit analysis it undertakes as part sociated with glacial melt would seem to able to realize both the current ecosystem of its planning process. These examples are be closer in value to lakes/streams and for- services they provide and, perhaps more why EA expects to see continued revenue ests, both of which possess at least some importantly, the future ecosystem services growth related to natural infrastructure. potential for adaptation or resilience as that the unmanaged natural systems might compared to the likely irreversible degra- provide. In our experience, the most valu- CCBJ: We can distinguish ‘managed dation of the cryosphere. As suggested by able types of created, restored, or protected natural infrastructure’ and ‘monitored CCBJ, there are likely holes in any argu- natural infrastructure will be those systems natural infrastructure’ with the latter ment when discussing the general topic of that are able to adapt without management implying ‘unmanaged’ natural systems valuing ecosystem services, but the attempt action. that are still monitored and reported itself is certainly one that pays tangible on for their contribution. But what do dividends even if those dividends can’t yet However, either way you define natural you think about CCBJ’s natural infra- be confidently quantified. infrastructure, there is certainly a growing structure valuation estimates, the $33 market that is demanding services relating quadrillion and where riverine resources CCBJ: On a personal level, what are to the improvement of natural infrastruc- rank compared to atmospheric or oce- your favorite national parks? ture. While we wait on continued mar- anic or forest? R ket development related to such revenue Haleakala on Maui and Grand Teton. 20 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021

Tetra Tech and its High Performance Buildings Group Take long-term climate action and resiliency on Ambitious Goal of Decarbonizing all 23 CSU Campuses strategy. In addition to fostering more pro- active load control during parallel grid op- Tetra Tech is a leading consulting and engineering firm with 20,000 associates providings eration as campuses build out more solar & clear solutions to complex problems in water, environment, sustainable infrastructure, and re- storage, microgrids will provide necessary newable energy using the motto Leading with Science®. continuity of operations for our campuses in public safety power shutoffs (PSPF) in Brian Stern is a Regional Energy Director with Tetra Tech’s High Performance Build- 0wildfire risk areas, as well as other areas ings group based out of San Francisco, CA. Brian works to improve building performance where utilities have not made critical grid from initial concept through operation. He manages the California energy team that lead upgrades. The CSU system has supported net zero energy and high-performance building across the county. Brian has experience these efforts by establishing various master delivering large scale energy planning services for university clients including with CSU enabling agreements (solar, battery storage, Long Beach, Sonoma State University and the CSU Chancellor’s Office. etc.) and is currently working to develop CCBJ: The growth in higher education Stern: This is very much just the first Climate-Adapted Design Day standards. the last 20 years would imply that lots of step in the process of decarbonizing heat- the natural gas consuming infrastructure ing systems within the CSU system. In ad- CCBJ: Cities in California have banned on campuses is likely not old, so is there dition to the information data system, the the new installation of natural gas con- a significant economic hurdle to over- Decarbonization Framework has provided suming devices. Is this something that come when transitioning to carbon-free? other resources, guidelines and tools. This has impacted any of the 23 campuses is included a policy review, heating technolo- the CSU system? Brian Stern: The age and condition gy review, design guidelines/standards, en- of existing infrastructure differs greatly Stern: So far municipal natural gas bans ergy modeling guidelines and a life-cycle throughout the CSU system. The timeline in CA have not impacted the CSU sys- cost analysis tool. Campuses will use this for an economic transition to a carbon-free tem that much. Most of the initial policies framework to guide their future planning heating system will vary from campus to passed focused on residential homes and and implementation efforts and find over- campus based on these factors and many municipal owned facilities. However, these laps between deferred maintenance, energy others. All CSU campuses will provide a policies are expected to impact the CSU efficiency, and decarbonization. Project critical infrastructure assessment this year system in the future and are being care- phasing isn’t a linear process and there are to better understand the condition of their fully tracked and studied. For example, the multiple potential pathways. existing infrastructure and to establish a City of San Francisco just passed a natu- ral gas ban for all new construction build- long-term decarbonization roadmap. The CCBJ: How does the term microgrids ing which will impact SFSU. Some CSU CSU Decarbonization Framework proj- play into the strategy? ect will help to guide these campus spe- campuses have already established internal Stern: Energy resiliency and microgrids policies to prohibit the use of natural gas cific efforts. Replacement of equipment on R burnout is the standard practice and CSU will be a critical part of the CSU system’s for new construction buildings. is concentrating on doing so on a project- by-project basis (early retirement is typi- CCBJ Award: Project Merit: High Performance Buildings cally not an option). For this transition to Tetra Tech Inc. and its High Performance Buildings Group for supporting Cali- be economically viable, CSU needs to keep fornia State University’s (CSU) climate action plan and s investment to decarbonize things cost-effective and avoid additional existing utility infrastructure for all 23 CSU campuses. With Tetra Tech’s support, the investment in fossil fuel systems that will CSU system can realize a 70% reduction potential in natural gas consumption, meet result in future stranded assets. climate action commitments, and support California’s goal to be carbon neutral by 2025. Campuses were prioritized for carbon-free heating using submeter data, inverse CCBJ: It appears the first phase of the energy modeling, and predictive analytics. Tetra Tech developed a central utility plant project is largely an information system scenario analysis planning tool and dynamic dashboards that allow campuses to opti- deployment to allow campus administra- mize heat recovery strategies and reduce GHG emissions. Dashboards enable stake- tors to optimize their systems to reduce holders to better understand the multidimensional impacts of a carbon-free heating carbon emissions, but this must be the system and can be used to develop a long-term clean energy strategy. Tetra Tech also first step in total decarbonization cor- developed a system-wide decarbonization framework that consisted of policy reviews, rect? How are you going about achieving mechanical design, technology assessments and energy modeling guidelines. the long-term goal of Zero Carbon? 21 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021

American Forest Foundation Works With Family Forest ongoing measurement over time. For small landowners – this is just not feasible. The Owners to Sequester and Store Carbon Family Forest Carbon Program addresses the barriers owners of small forest hold- The American Forest Foundation (AFF) is a national non-profit conservation organiza- ings face in accessing carbon markets and tion that protects and measurably increases the clean water, wildlife habitat, and sustainable takes a different approach. Our Program is wood supplies that come from family-owned forests. AFF works with partners, leading busi- a performance-based approach, providing nesses, policymakers, and landowners directly, to address key issues such as conserving biodiver- upfront incentive payments to forest land- sity, reducing risk of catastrophic wildfire, and addressing the threat of climate change. owners to implement specific sustainable Nathan Truitt joined the staff of the American Forest Foundation in March 2013. As forestry practices that increase sequestra- VP of Strategic Partnerships, he designs forest conservation programs that meet the needs tion and storage of carbon. The carbon se- of companies, landowners, agencies, donors and other key stakeholders. Prior to joining questered is measured as the change over AFF, Nathan oversaw fundraising for the Izaak Walton League of America and Ameri- time, thanks to the practice. This is our key can Councils for International Education. He began his career in the non-profit world difference – we are looking at the positive working on international education and development, first as a Peace Corps Volunteer in change or additional carbon. Turkmenistan, and later as a Program, Country and Regional Director in Uzbekistan, Ser- bia and Kosovo. Nathan graduated from Pomona College in Claremont, California and CCBJ: What methods do you use to has a Master’s Degree in Philanthropy and Development from Saint Mary’s University in estimate payments to landowners and is Winona, Minnesota. He met his wife, Zalina, in Uzbekistan, and they live in Alexandria, there a graduated scale based on some VA, with their three children. kind of criteria? CCBJ: Give us some background on implement a comprehensive strategy to re- Truitt: The forest management prac- AFF and carbon. ducing their carbon footprint. Yet it has, to tices landowners are implementing are date, been undervalued, or difficult to value geographically specific to the forest types AFF: To start off, let me briefly explain in the case of small forest holdings. AFF in their given area, providing additional the connection between the American is looking to address this with our Family improved forest health and wildlife habitat Forest Foundation and the carbon space. Forest Carbon Program. benefits. Currently our program is being AFF is a conservation non-profit that piloted in Pennsylvania, with 2 practices – works to deliver meaningful conservation CCBJ: I am very interested in your new growing mature forests (allowing only lim- impact through the empowerment of fam- approach to developing forest carbon ited sustainable harvesting, ensuring the ily forest landowners. credits. What is your current criteria healthiest, fastest-growing trees are kept What I mean by this is, in order for for what qualifies as an acre of forest in in the woods) and enhancing future forests family forests to produce the benefits so- terms of vegetation or carbon fixture? (removing competing vegetation in order to allow quality, younger trees to grow bet- ciety values (habitat, clean water, carbon Nathan Truitt: AFF follows the stan- ter) – see page 18 of white paper. The pay- storage), they must be actively cared for. dard definition of a forest as set by the U.S. ments to the landowner for these practices This can be difficult as many landowners Forest Service – which is an acre of land are based on the cost of implementing the face challenges to caring for their land – that is covered in at least 10% canopy cover practice in that region. such as technical knowledge and the cost from trees or vegetation. In terms of the of management. Family Forest Carbon Program, for a land- CCBJ: Do you believe other credit pro- AFF is the only conservation organiza- owner to be eligible to participate in our grams could be developed which would tion working on a national level to bring program, they need to have a minimum of provide additional payments based on together policymakers, corporations and 20 acres, though most will have between habitats or watershed properties? conservation groups to empower family 40 – 1,000 acres. Truitt: There is opportunity to create forest owners to cultivate the conservation In terms of the carbon sequestration other credit programs in which landown- impact of their forests, and to ensure that calculation - the Family Forest Carbon ers are paid to enhance other conservation impact is valued, paid for, and supported Program is different than traditional car- values like habitat, yes. AFF is working to at scale. bon programs. In traditional carbon proj- develop these other conservation markets. Carbon sequestration and storage is ects, a landowner is responsible for com- Markets are critical to small landowners to a critical conservation value of forests – pleting a complex and costly forest carbon be able to generate income that they can valued by companies who are looking to inventory of their trees and must provide in turn put back into their land, in order 22 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021 to continue to develop and maintain a That said, the system is not yet perfect. Our goal is to work with a variety of healthy forest. We at AFF feel verification under interna- partners to scale this program across the tional standards is and must continue to be U.S., engaging 50 million acres in the pro- CCBJ: Tell us about the process to get a critical piece to developing a rigorous and gram by 2030. If we reach that scale, the approval for your carbon accounting credible carbon program, because it is that gross climate mitigation produced (before methodology from Verra’s VCS or Veri- process which ensures the climate benefit accounting for permanence, risk and leak- fied Carbon Standard (see box). of our various activities. age) would be between 50 and 100 million MTCO2e each year). If our estimates re- Truitt: The Verified Carbon Standard Furthermore, we believe we must work garding the trajectory of carbon pricing are from Verra (Washington, DC) has a very as a community of project developers, correct, that would represent a market of rigorous process for approval. AFF, in con- standards, verifiers, buyers and stakehold- between $750 million and $1.5 billion. junction with The Nature Conservancy, ers to continually “raise the bar” for what who is our partner in the program, began constitutes a credible carbon credit. Only CCBJ: Does AFF support direct rela- working on the methodology in 2018. We when we have clear, stringent standards, tionships between such sponsors and the began working with Verra on the valida- and a verification infrastructure that pro- private owners you have studied, or is tion of this methodology in 2019, so that vides assurance to buyers and stakehold- it more prudent to have a third party to we can offer companies verified carbon ers that those standards are being met and either transact the initial and then ongo- credits. exceeded, can markets effectively help cor- ing arrangements, or to verify ongoing porations interested in addressing residual The process includes written explana- carbon performance? emissions in their value chain. tion of the methodology that is examined Truitt: There are companies who are by their expert team, addressing concerns CCBJ: A possible purchaser of Forest creating their own forest carbon projects, and questions, a public comment period, carbon credits is for example Amazon or yet these are likely on tracts of land that are and a final review by an accredited third Microsoft seeking to offset its Carbon 5,000 acres or higher. Our expertise falls party. Along the way the methodology is responsibilities. How big a market do in engaging landowners with small forest continually improved in response to that you think this could be? 290 million holdings and developing programs that feedback. Our aim has been to design a acres times $10/acre is $3 billion a year... connect these landowners to the needs of methodology that not only allows family that is not preposterous is it? companies. Small landowners are often landowners to participate in these markets, the landowners most in need of markets as but also improves the accuracy and cred- Truitt: The market for forest carbon most family forest owners are not wealthy ibility of carbon measurements. We are has incredible potential, particularly when landowners, but average Americans. Thir- expected to receive approval in March of markets can be opened up to small land- ty-three percent of family forest owners this spring. owners. Voluntary carbon markets are see- fall below the U.S. median income. ing expansive growth across the private CCBJ: How has the verification busi- sector as companies take on leadership It would be difficult for a company to ness evolved over the last 20 years since roles in addressing their carbon footprint have the time and bandwidth to engage a the early clean development mechanism through operational efficiencies, reduc- large amount of small landowners whose and joint implementation programs and tions in emissions and when needed, car- collective acreage and carbon added up to various controversies about REDD? bon offsets. the desired amount that company is seek- ing to account for. That is where a program Truitt: The verification process has -ab Yet, the domestic carbon projects avail- like the Family Forest Carbon Program solutely improved and strengthened over able for investment are limited – being de- can come in. Our program provides a time. Since the early days of carbon mar- veloped almost exclusively on forest prop- charismatic value in that we are connect- kets, we have seen the establishment of a erties of 5,000 acres or more. Less than ing companies with these rural landowners core set of principles that guide the work 1% of current forest carbon projects are and supporting them and their communi- of creating carbon offsets, and the parallel on small forest holdings. Yet, family for- ties economically. development of a number of International est owners own the largest portion, or 36% standards that, through the verification of U.S. forestland. These landowners are CCBJ: What method would you use to process, provide independent assurance absence from current carbon markets due calculate the economic value of one acre that forest carbon projects are following to the high transactional costs and com- of forest? those principles in implementation. plexity, compared to the size of their land holdings. 23 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021

Truitt: It is difficult to do this, as the val- American Forest Foundation & Family Forest Carbon Program ue will differ based on region, forest type, age of forest and the proximity of markets. n August 2020, the American Forest Foundation released a white paper outlining I can tell you that the forest industry itself the case for working with family forest owners to sequester and store more carbon. directly and indirectly support 2.5 million ForestsI and other natural climate solutions have the potential for at least one-third of jobs and $109.4 billion in annual payroll. needed climate change mitigation to keep temperature increases under two degrees. Of the timber harvested annually in U.S., An ideal opportunity to implement natural climate solutions is through working 89% comes from private forests. forests — specifically improved management of existing forests and reforestation. AFF’s white paper examines the largest ownership group of forests in the U.S. – CCBJ: At Climate Change Business private and family-owned forests. Collectively holding 290 million acres, families and Journal we analyze the climate change individuals own 36% of all forestland, totalling 21 million individuals. The majority industry in nine major segments. What own smaller tracts between 20 and 1,000 acres, and 33% fall below the U.S. median areas of the climate change industry do income. AFF has found that family forest owners care about seeing their land remain you believe will see the most change, as a forest into the future and improving the health of their forest, but few imple- growth, disruption or international ment practices to increase the health and carbon sequestration ability due to lack competition in the 2020s? of information and resources, and most notably, the real and perceived high cost of Truitt: We expect to see growth across forest management and conservation. AFF’s Family Forest Carbon Program, created all climate change industry segments as by AFF and The Nature Conservancy aligns family forest owners and the private we see an increase in companies making sector, offering payments to landowners for implementing carbon-positive forest climate commitments and establishing management, producing verified carbon credits, as well as rural economic stimulus sustainability goals, even without federal and the enhancement of habitat for at-risk species. The program’s carbon accounting legislation or guidelines. It’s become a rec- methodology is on track for approval from Verra’s Verified Carbon Standard (VCS). ognized business practice. R

Verra’s Verified Carbon Standard Program egorized by their sectoral scope from renewable energy projects to land use projects (forest management). A VCS project data- erra, a Washington DC-based nonprofit corporation, de- base, lists registered projects and projects pursuing registration. velops and manages standards that help the private sector, countries,V and civil society achieve ambitious sustainable devel- VCS leads the way in developing frameworks to unlock the opment and climate action goals. Verra was founded in 2005 to carbon reduction potential of Agriculture, Forestry and Other provide greater quality assurance in voluntary carbon markets. Land Use (AFOLU) projects, and VCS has become the most Verra serves as a secretariat for the standards it develops and widely used standard in the sector. AFOLU projects fall under the programs it manages, as well as an incubator of new ideas the following categories: that can generate meaningful environmental and social value. • Afforestation, Reforestation and Revegetation (ARR) The VCS Program is the world’s most widely used voluntary • Agricultural Land Management (ALM) GHG program. Over 1,600 certified VCS projects have col- • Improved Forest Management (IFM) lectively reduced or removed more than 500 million tonnes of • Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation carbon and other GHG emissions from the atmosphere. Using (REDD) carbon markets, entities can offset emissions by retiring carbon • Avoided Conversion of Grasslands and Shrublands (ACoGS) credits generated by projects that are reducing GHG emissions elsewhere. The VCS Program ensures the credibility of emission • Wetlands Restoration and Conservation (WRC) reduction projects. Once projects have been certified against A challenge for AFOLU projects is appropriate handling VCS’ rigorous set of rules and requirements, project developers natural risks (fire, pests, hurricanes), internal management risks can be issued tradable GHG credits or Verified Carbon Units (eg, project management, financial viability) and external risks (VCUs). Those VCUs can then be sold on the open market (eg, community engagement, land tenure). VCS has partnered and retired by individuals and companies to offset their own with international experts to address these concerns through emissions. Over time, this flexibility channels financing to clean, the development of a pooled buffer account that holds non- innovative businesses and technologies. Verra’s role is to develop tradable credits to guard against any future reversals of issued and administer the program, providing oversight to all opera- VCUs. Project developers can search approved AFOLU meth- tional components of the VCS Program. VCS projects are cat- odologies, and can propose new methodologies for approval. 24 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis CCBJ: It seems that the primary Pinpoints High Impact Areas for Ecosystem Restoration mission of your most recent research is to prioritize ecosystem restoration The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is an interna- based on what will have the most cost tional scientific institute that conducts research into the critical issues of global envi- effective impact on carbon dioxide in ronmental, economic, technological, and social change that we face in the twenty-first the atmosphere and on biodiversity. century. Our findings provide valuable options to policymakers to shape the future of Is this what the researchers and au- our changing world. IIASA is independent and funded by prestigious research funding thors set out to do at the beginning agencies in Africa, the Americas, Asia, and Europe. or were there other objectives of the study? David Leclere is a Research Scholar with the IIASA Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM) Program, having joined in 2012. He contributes to several David Leclere: This is indeed the developments on the GLOBIOM land use model and investigates various topics focus of the article from Strassburg such as climate change impacts on agriculture, processes of agriculture expansion et al, and one of the activities we are and intensification, and impacts of anthropogenic land use on the climate, the involved in. While cost-effective land- nutrient cycles and biodiversity. He recently coordinated the “Bending the Curve based climate mitigation actions has Initiative”, an international network of about 60 persons and 46 institutions fo- been a topic of research at IIASA (in cused on advanced quantitative modeling techniques, and investigating future particular for the ESM & ENE pro- pathways towards ambitious targets for biodiversity. Dr. Leclere obtained an MSc grams, see for example Havlik et al in Fundamental and Applied Physics, and in Climate Environment interactions 2014, Frank et al 2018, Rogelj et al from the Paris-Saclay University, as well as a PhD in Environmental Science, also 2018, Roe et al 2019), the biodiversity from the Paris-Saclay University (AgroParisTech), France. component is a more recent focus. Piero Visconti is a Research Scholar with the Ecosystem Services and Man- The Strassburg et al analysis indeed agement program (ESM) at IIASA and an honorary research fellow with the intended from the start to look at these Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, UCL, and the Institute of 3 aspects of restoration (cost, biodiver- Zoology of the Zoological Society of London as well as an Academic Visitor sity and C sequestration), and follows with the University of Cambridge Conservation Science Group. He co-supervises from a similar analysis for Brazil only PhD students at each of these institutions. Dr. Visconti completed a PhD in (Strassburg et al NEE 2018). Piero Conservation Planning between James Cook University and the Global Mam- Visconti is also leading a similar analy- mal Assessment programme (GMA) at Sapienza University of Rome jointly in sis (spatial allocation optimization for 2011. From 2011 to 2012, he was a postdoc at the University of Rome and there- multiple goals) for the delineation of after at the Microsoft Research Cambridge Computational Ecology group and protected areas (see Jung et al. 2020), at UNEP-WCMC from 2015 to 2016. His research during this period focused and we have also looked at how to on understanding species responses to land-use and climate change and project- achieve ambitious goals for biodiver- ing these responses under future global change scenarios. For this research, he sity without jeopardizing food security developed analytical methods that integrate statistical models of distribution and (Leclere et al 2020). abundance of species that use presence data and species’ life-history traits, with CCBJ: You mention your sophisticated expert-based information on species habitat preferences. While at Microsoft, he multi criteria optimization platform as also developed methods to enable planning of conservation interventions under a key tool in developing these priorities. severe uncertainty, and methods to survey species’ cost-efficiently borrowing sam- Assuming that data inputs are crucial pling techniques from computer science. to the accuracy of outputs, how much Papers referenced in this article: progress has been made in digital uti- lization of data derived from satellites, Havlik et al 2014: https://www.pnas.org/content/111/10/3709 Frank et al 2018: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-03489-1 drones, and other forms of photography Rogej et al 2018: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0091-3 and scanning that you may have accessed Roe et al 2019: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0591-9 during the study? Jung et al 2020: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.021444v1.full David Leclere: This particular anal- Leclere et al 2020: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2705-y Laso_Bayas, 2020: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/9/11/446?type=check_update&version=2 ysis uses, among others, remote sensing data (the ESA-CCI land cover map 25 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021 from the European Space Agency) techniques, to better characterize eco- ployment of these technologies for to estimate what type of ecosystem is systems and human impacts is a very monitoring progress in ecosystem present at various places, and to what active field in which IIASA has been restoration? extent these ecosystems have been active, in particular within the ESM Steffen Fritz: There has been a tre- converted for human activities. program (Center for Earth Observa- mendous development in the last de- tion and Citizen Science, lead Steffen The field of using and fusing vari- cade in the field of remote sensing as Fritz). ous sources of gridded (remote sens- well as drone imagery. The availability ing from satellites, drones, etc.) and CCBJ: How much progress has as well as the spatial and temporal res- point-specific (pictures, crowd-sourced been made in these technologies olution of satellite data has improved human interpretation) data, in com- in the last decade and do we expect and satellite data is now freely available bination with artificial intelligence similar gains in the 2020s and the de- for data of 10-30 meter resolution.

IIASA Study Pinpoints High Impact Areas for Ecosystem Restoration For example Europe has committed with the Sentinel 2 Sensor to provide landmark study released in October 2020 by the International Institute for long term observations free of charge Applied Systems Analysis (Laxenburg, Austria) focused on identifying pre- of 10 meter resolution with a satel- ciselyA which destroyed ecosystems worldwide should be restored to deliver biodiver- lite overpass rate every 5 days for the sity and climate benefits at a low cost without impact on agricultural production. The next decade to come. This develop- study is the first of its kind to provide global evidence that where restoration takes ment is going to continue and in the place has the most profound impact on the achievement of biodiversity, climate, and future more and more even higher food security goals. The study focuses on the potential benefits of restoring both for- resolution data 1-5 meter which can est and non-forest ecosystems on a global scale. Previous research has emphasized be used for ecosystem monitoring will forests and tree planting, sometimes at the expense of native grasslands or other eco- become available. Also drone data for systems, the destruction of which would be very detrimental for biodiversity. both multi-spectral as well as lidar has become more affordable, e.g. a multi- Using a sophisticated multi-criteria optimization platform called PLANGEA—a spectral based drone which could ac- mathematical approach that finds “slam dunk” solutions to address multiple prob- quire up to 100 hectares costs around lems—in combination with mapping technologies, the researchers assessed 2,870 5,000 euro. million hectares of ecosystems worldwide that have been converted to farmland. Of these, 54% were originally forests, 25% grasslands, 14% shrublands, 4% arid lands, Those datasets play a critical role in and 2% wetlands. They then evaluated these lands based on three factors (animal monitoring the current ecosystem state habitats, carbon storage, and cost-effectiveness) to determine which proportion of and restoration activities. However, to lands would deliver the most benefits for biodiversity and carbon at the lowest cost derive meaningful classifications of when restored. satellite imagery and to better under- stand the ongoing processes within an “Integrated approaches that combine restoration efforts with a transformation of ecosystem it is important to measure our food system have great potential for navigating trade-offs between environmental on the ground also termed as in-situ and production objectives. Such approaches will be central to an effective post-2020 data. Ground reference data that can biodiversity strategy,” says study coauthor David Leclère, a researcher in the IIASA be used to calibrate and validate satel- Ecosystems Services and Management Program. The approach developed is already lite based maps is also becoming in- supporting implementation at national and local scales and provides compelling evi- creasingly available and openly shared. dence to policymakers seeking affordable, efficient ways to meet UN goals around More and more data is collected on biodiversity, climate, and desertification. the ground also with the involvement “The approach pioneered in this study shows the enormous potential for inte- of the general public. There have been grated spatial planning to deliver biodiversity and climate mitigation benefits from a number of citizen science projects habitat restoration, with negligible impacts on food production and the associated where citizens have contributed to economic sectors. Crucially, this approach is applicable also at national and sub-na- data collection and data analysis (see tional level and we look forward to assisting countries in implementing their own Laso_Bayas). restoration targets with similar approaches for the benefit of people and the environ- CCBJ: Your study summary re- ment,” concludes study coauthor and IIASA researcher Piero Visconti. ports on types of ecosystems that 26 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021 had been converted to farmland. But Local Investment in Climate Change Adaptation & could you share some regional pri- Resilience Increases Influence of the Institute for Water oritization as to continents where restoration would have the most cost and Environmental Resilience and Stetson University effective impact on atmospheric car- bon? In other words does most of Jason Evans, PhD, associate professor of environmental science and studies at Stetson the potential lie in Africa and South University and interim executive director of the Institute for Water and Environmental America, or is there also high value Resilience (IWER), is a climate change, flooding, sea-level rise and storm surge expert opportunities in North America and and researcher. He has conducted extensive research about environmental issues and has Europe? been published in numerous publications. Steffen Fritz:As for regional prior- IWER is collaborating with the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Admin- ities for restoration, if we look at where istration’s Office of Coastal Management and Sea Grant College Programs in Florida, most carbon could be restored, the Georgia and North and South Carolina to evaluate green infrastructure interventions priority regions are temperate Europe, for reducing flood risks. The research opportunity is made possible by funding from a southern and eastern Asia, the arc of $404,000, two-year Karl Havens Memorial South Atlantic Regional Research on Coastal deforestation on the SE border of the Community Resilience Grant. Dr. Evans provided his expertise to a dike project in Swan Amazon, converted former rainforests Quarter, North Carolina 10 years ago. The dike held up well during hurricanes Irene, Mat- of central America and the Caribbean thew, Sandy and Florence. Dr Evans works with the City of Satellite Beach on sea-level and converted peatlands and former rise adaptation planning efforts and analyses in support of moving its fire station to higher rainforests of Western Africa and the ground as well as developing recommendations for its drainage system. Congo Basin. Dr. Evans is also working on sea-level rise adaptation planning efforts with Martin and Monroe Counties, the Islamorada, Village of Islands, City of New Smyrna Beach and CCBJ: Please provide some context for City of Rockledge in Florida, as well as ollaborating with Chatham County and the City the International Institute for Applied of Savannah in Georgia. Systems Analysis. How big is your team and where does most of your funding CCBJ: Doctor Evans, it is apparent you graduate school in Gainesville at that time, come from? have witnessed and analyzed numerous and I’ll never forget those 6-8 weeks of IIASA: The International Institute hurricanes and big storm events in the what seemed like hurricane after hurricane for Applied Systems Analysis (IIA- South East throughout your career. Did impacting us. SA) is an international scientific in- you grow up in the region, and do you re- CCBJ: We have experienced a growing stitute that conducts research into the call memories of storms as a youth, and awareness of sea level rise and the ad- critical issues of global environmental, early motivations to study more about ditional threats it poses to areas suscep- economic, technological, and social the environment? tible to storm surges, particularly in the change that we face in the twenty-first Dr. Jason M. Evans: I grew up in Or- Southeast coastal regions. It is very en- century. Our findings provide valuable lando, FL, during the 1980s. Most of my couraging to see that you have engaged options to policymakers to shape the motivation in studying environmental sci- in sea level rise adaptation planning future of our changing world. IIASA is ence came from fishing with my grandfa- efforts with a number of counties and independent and funded by prestigious ther on many lakes and rivers across the cities in the area. You mention the recent research funding agencies in Africa, region. As for storms, the 1980s were actu- collaboration on a $404,000, 2-year the Americas, Asia, and Europe. R ally something of a “lucky” period where research project on coastal resilience For more information on IIASA and no hurricanes had a direct impact on cen- from the Karl Havens Memorial South access to more papers go to www.iiasa. tral Florida. However, I had an interest Atlantic Regional Research on Coastal ac.at or contact Ansa Heyl, Press Officer in tracking storms at a very early age and Community Resilience Grant program. and Editor, Communications and External diligently watched the Weather Channel Is this mechanism fairly typical of what Relations, [email protected] tel: +43 (0)2236 whenever storms were approaching. has been funding many of the other 807 574; mob: +43 (0)676 83 807 574; My first direct experiences with hurri- projects you have been involved with like Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria canes, though, came with the three storms Martin and Monroe County and cities - Charley, Frances, and Jeanne - that im- in Florida and Georgia? pacted peninsular Florida in 2004. I was in Jason Evans: Much of my own work 27 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021

(including the Karl Havens Memorial government or from grants from private engineer for such a scenario right now is project) in the sea-level rise adaptation institutions or what other sources? just prohibitively expensive. Nevertheless, and resilience fields has been supported considering of such dire scenarios is pru- Jason Evans: It›s a pretty wide mix of through the Sea Grant College Program. dent, especially when thinking about siting funding from local, state, and federal gov- Sea Grant is housed under the National of facilities - say like a nuclear power plant ernment sources. In Florida, state funding Oceanographic and Atmospheric Ad- - where we have very low tolerance for risk. through the DEP›s Office of Resilience ministration (NOAA), and there are Sea and Coastal Planning has been an increas- That›s a long way of saying that we are Grant programs active in all of the coastal ingly important source of funding for lo- making some progress, but these issues are and Great Lakes states. The overall pur- cal governments. Private foundation grants not easy. Green infrastructure practices are pose of Sea Grant is to bring knowledge have been important for initiating resil- especially appealing, because there are co- about coastal science issues, such as fisher- ience planning initiatives in certain areas, benefits - such as cleaner water, improved ies and resilience, directly to people living but the governmental funds are the most recreational opportunities, aesthetic beauty within coastal communities in partnership important driver of these initiatives right that improves property values, etc. - to with university researchers. now. those kinds of projects that also accrue im- I’m very proud to say that I have been mediately. In other words, even if we see a part of some groundbreaking resilience CCBJ: Do you believe there are some less sea-level rise than anticipated through planning work through direct support parameters around a consensus on the a green infrastructure design, there are still from Florida Sea Grant and Georgia Sea analysis regarding coastal resilience, as many other benefits. By contrast, if a com- Grant. NOAA’s Office of Coastal Man- well as the engineering and construc- munity overinvests in «grey infrastructure» agement, South Carolina Sea Grant, and tion options to be considered? Or is like sea walls or pumps because of fears North Carolina Sea Grant are also help- it still too early to draw any conclu- about sea-level rise, the money, in a sense, ing to fund the Karl Havens Memorial sions? Where are we towards standard is «wasted» if the dire scenario doesn›t projects as a regional model. But funding industry practices or best practices come to pass. And while grey infrastruc- for resilience planning projects is available around coastal resilience planning and/ ture - such as traditional sea walls - does from many other different sources, includ- or seawall construction using green have its place, it›s important to remember ing local governments, state governments, infrastructure? that over-hardening shorelines has sub- other federal agencies, and some private Jason Evans: There is an increasing stantial environmental costs in addition to foundations. technical consensus about the types of sce- the monetary expenses. Being «resilient» in the coastal zone requires should not be Other sources of funding that have sup- nario analyses that need to be performed, about a «fortress mentality» of bigger sea ported my work include Florida Depart- but there is less consensus about what are walls and pumps, but should entail deep ment of Environmental Protection’s Of- the appropriate engineering and construc- thinking about the short-term and long- fice of Resilience and Coastal Planning, tion options that should be employed. This term tradeoffs associated with any kind of Georgia Department of Natural Resources gets particularly tricky as we look further large investment. Coastal Resources Division, NOAA’s out into the future, as there is still a quite wide band of uncertainty about how much Coastal Zone Management Program, Ar- CCBJ: Where do you think we are with sea-level rise will occur over the next 80- thur Vining Davis Foundations, and Mon- deploying analytical technology for 100 years. We can say with absolute con- roe County’s Sustainability Department. coastal resilience, particularly drones, fidence that sea-level rise is already oc- In recent years, I have worked especially satellite imagery, lidar and other scan- curring, and we have very high confidence closely with the East Central Florida Re- ning to assess vulnerabilities or progress that the rate of sea-level rise is already gional Planning Council in developing on an ongoing basis? What were biggest increasing over what has been observed technical assessments and implementing breakthrough in the 2010s? What do you over the past century or so. But by the year planning initiatives for local governments expect in the 2020s? in Volusia and Brevard counties here in 2100, possible sea-level rise could reason- central Florida. ably be anywhere between 1.5 - 8 feet. A Jason Evans: Our elevation technology, rise of 1.5 feet would pose problems, but especially with widespread use of LIDAR CCBJ: For most of the climate adapta- adaptation through some engineering and sensors, has completely revolutionalized tion and coastal resilience planning adjustments is conceivable. But, frankly, it›s flood mapping. The level of precision and projects being done by cities or regions, very difficult to imagine how coastal com- accuracy from LIDAR is several orders of do you believe most of the source of munities could physically cope with a sea- magnitude better than what we had avail- the funding has been from the federal level rise of 8 feet. Accordingly, attempts to able when the first federal flood maps were 28 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021 developed back in the 1970s. High resolu- dilemma on how to adopt a sustainable EBI’s Reports & Datapacks provide tion aerial photography from drones, and strategy about ensuring residential and even ground-based mobile photography commercial assets in low level coastal market data and company informa- from sources such as Google Earth, also areas of the South East, and what they tion that includes forecasts, survey allows us to have a very good picture of should do about it in terms of offering results, and interviews with com- what›s potentially at high risk from flood- coverage or not or funding replacement panies, experts, and analysts, along ing. or not? with research on revenue generation, financial performance, and other vital What I expect to see in the 2020s is an Jason Evans: Most of the flood insur- industry information. Report files increased demand - on the part of the gov- ance within the United States is issued come in PDF and Datapacks in XLS ernment, insurers, mortgage holders, and through the National Flood Insurance bond rating entities - for more robust lo- Program (NFIP), which is a federally and each include up to 30 minutes of cal information about the conditions and funded program. The problem of certain phone support from EBI research. maintenance of drainage infrastructure. residential and commercial properties that • U.S. Environmental Industry DataPack This is one area where there are wide dis- have experienced «repetitive losses», but parities among local governments in terms have nevertheless been rebuilt in the same • Climate Change Industry DataPack of their technical capacity, resources, and location, is well-known as a major cost • Environmental Consulting & even basic data availability. drag on the NFIP. NFIP has to date not Engineering DataPack included climate change or sea-level rise For example, some local governments into the formulas for setting its premiums, • Remediation Market DataPack have highly sophisticated stormwater and there are some who argue that a pri- management programs that are well-fund- • Solid Waste Management DataPack vate flood insurance market - especially ed through assessed utility fees, have very now that we have so much better envi- • Haz Waste Management DataPack precise knowledge about the conditions of ronmental data as compared to where we their stormwater infrastructure, and con- • Environmental Industry Overview were five decades ago when NFIP was first duct routine maintenance and inspections established - is much better positioned to • The Global Environmental Market to keep their systems in good working or- factor those risks into actuarial tables. der. • Environmental Consulting & While we are starting to see a little Engineering Report Other local governments, by contrast, more private companies willing to offer • Remediation & Industrial Services do not have good records of their storm- flood insurance policies (especially in ar- water infrastructure and may not even • WaterView: Services & Equipment eas with low flood risk), I do not foresee know where some of their infrastructure NFIP being displaced as the dominant • Environmental Testing & Analytical is even located, much less how it currently player in flood insurance within the U.S. Services functions. Much of this «lost» infrastruc- any time soon. So I think there›s going to ture tends to be quite old and, from my ex- • Solid Waste Management, Resource have to be a broader conversation about perience in going out in the field to locate Recovery & Waste Management «buyer beware» within high-risk areas, and, some of these systems, is often in very poor Equipment frankly, some political decisions about how condition. the federal government responds to flood • Instruments & Information Systems losses in the aftermath of large disasters. While all of the newer technologies, • Air Pollution Control Equipment such as drones and high-resolution imag- Our traditional approach has been to offer ery, are obviously crucial tools, there is also federal disaster funds on top of insurance • Environmental Industry a high need for a lot of «old-fashioned» payments in support of rebuilding, often Summit Customary Dates: survey work to find, map, and inventory with little improvement over how things March in San Diego; May in the conditions of our drainage infrastruc- were built before the disaster occurred. I Texas; July in Seattle; November ture. There will be an associated need, in think there›s broad agreement that it›s fis- in DC, December in Boston. cally irresponsible to keep going down that my view, for substantial investments to up- • Environmental Industry grade many of these systems for resilience path, but it›s nevertheless very difficult to Summit XIX scheduled for purposes. implement policies that would essentially tell some communities that they are not September 22-24, 2021 in CCBJ: What is your opinion on the going to be rebuilt. R Coronado, California insurance industry and its ongoing 29 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021

A Brief History of Oil and WTI Spot Price Per Barrel of Oil: 1986 to 2021 Scenarios for Energy & 140 WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel) Power in 2030, 2040 & 2050 120

100 he history of the climate change in- dustry and the environmental indus- 80 tryT has put great importance on the price 60 of crude oil. While still important to im- pacting the economic dynamics of global 40 deployment of clean energy, and likely 20 more important in transportation sectors than power generation, the influence of the 0 price per barrel of crude oil is decreasing significantly as we get into the 2020s. Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20 Source: WTI Spot Price Per Barrel of Oil: January 1986-March 2021 A brief history lesson of oil prices on the chart at the right reminds us of the The USA passed Saudi Arabia and Russia ment in time, but the fundamental issue of relatively stable prices between 20 and 30 in annual oil production in 2013, and got future demand for crude oil is in question dollars a barrel throughout the 1990s and back in the oil export business in 2019. as the financial community and various to the mid 2000s in what we believe will stock and debt rating agencies continue Oil prices stabilized somewhat closer to inevitably be remembered as the end of the to issue risk warnings about the future for the $50 to $60 a barrel level after 2015 as era of cheap oil. Prices per barrel of West companies with concentrations of assets production stabilized and demand growth Texas intermediate cracked the $50 barrier in fossil fuels. Through the second half of rates from developing and transition econ- in late 2004 and did not take long to hit the 2020 oil prices surged back past the around omies decreased in the 2010s, compared $150 mark in early 2008. Almost universal the $40 and $50 marks, and hit $60 again with the high growth in demand in the positive economic dynamics in developed in early 2021. and transition economies in the 2000s, 2000s. The year 2020 will forever be known coupled with stagnating production from as the year of the Coronavirus and that was And whereas this recent history is in- OPEC cartel members were the principal the principal factor leading to the shocking structive, it will hardly be helpful for forces behind the run up in price. The -fi news of oil futures prices going into nega- forecasting the next 30 years out to 2050. nancial crisis, with its resulting decrease in tive territory in April 2020 for a brief mo- But this is exactly what the International demand for oil, led to the collapse in prices of more than a $100 a barrel in a matter of Global Production of Energy 1995-2050 months. 200

Consistent economic recovery and in- 180 creased demand brought prices up for a 160 sustained period between 2010 and into 140 2015. Increased output by the major ex- porting oil economies, coupled with the 120 increased worldwide production as a result 100 of the run up in price, and particularly the 80 entry of hydraulic fracturing or horizontal drilling techniques for domestic produc- 60 Oil Production: Rapid scenario in Exajoules tion United States, changed the dynamics 40 Natural Gas Production: Rapid scenario in Exajoules of the global oil economy. OPEC coun- Coal Production: Rapid scenario in Exajoules 20 tries led by Saudi Arabia flooded the mar- ket with supply with a major motivation 0 to lower prices and drive the frackers out 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 of business. This worked to an extent but Source: BP Energy Outlook 2050: September 2020, Energy Production: Rapid scenario in Exajoules the market dynamic was forever changed. 30 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021

BP Energy Outlook ‘Net Zero Scenario’ for Global Electricity Energy Agency, the U.S. Energy Admin- istration and other bodies continue to do, Generation by Source in TWh: 1995-2050 but wisely not frequently taking on price 20000 forecasts beyond their Short Term Energy Outlook. The BP Energy Outlook 2050 Oil Gas Coal released in September 2020 continues its 16000 Nuclear Hydro Biomass history of projections, and as depicted on Geothermal Wind Solar the chart on page 29 shows the peak of oil production and coal production 2018, the 12000 year of its most recent accurate final reck- oning. BP’s economists forecast production 8000 of coal halving by 2035, and oil by 2050, and BP continues to paint natural gas as the transition fuel, although peak produc- 4000 tion in the ‘rapid scenario’ forecast for nat- ural gas is the year 2035. The BP Energy Outlook develops three main scenarios – 0 Rapid, Net Zero, and Business-as-usual – 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 that provide a range of possible outcomes BP Energy Outlook ‘Business-as-Usual’ Scenario for Global Electricity to understand the range of uncertainties Generation by Source in TWh: 1995-2050 surrounding the ‘fundamental restructur- ing’ that BP expects will characterize the 20000 energy transition (see scenario explanation

Oil Gas Coal at the bottom of the charts on page 30).

16000 Nuclear Hydro Biomass The more ambitous Net Zero Scenar- io sees gas peaking in electricity in 2025 Geothermal Wind Solar with almost parallel contributions of wind 12000 and solar, each surpassing all other source around 2030, and together representing about 2/3 of electricity generation in 2040, 8000 compared to 20% in BAU. Nuclear plays a notable role in Net Zero with electric- ity generation expected to be twice that of 4000 BAU by 2050, but still only a fifth of the combined total of solar and wind in 2050. Nuclear presents more of a technology dis- 0 ruption potential than the other sources, 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 but carbon capture technology also could Source: BP Energy Outlook 2050: September 2020; charts developed by CCBJ from BP Energy Outlook data. change the equation significantly. Clearly The Rapid Transition Scenario posits a series of policy measures, led by a significant increase in carbon prices and a wide range of scenarios and options lie supported by more-targeted sector specific measures, which cause carbon emissions from energy use to fall by ahead with an important wild card being around 70% by 2050. This fall in emissions is in line with scenarios which are consistent with limiting the rise in global temperatures by 2100 to well below 2-degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. the prospects for a hydrogen economy that has gained traction in 2020 and 2021. BP’s The Net Zero Scenario (Net Zero) assumes that the policy measures embodied in Rapid are both added to and reinforced by significant shifts in societal behaviour and preferences, which further accelerate the reduction in outlook has only about 10% of total energy carbon emissions. Global carbon emissions from energy use fall by over 95% by 2050, broadly in line with a range from hydrogen in 2050 in Net Zero, but of scenarios which are consistent with limiting temperature rises to 1.5-degrees Celsius. advocates, notably the Hydrogen Council, The Business-as-usual Scenario (BAU) assumes that government policies, technologies and social preferences con- tinue to evolve in a manner and speed seen over the recent past*. A continuation of that progress, albeit relatively have a vastly more optimistic range of sce- slow, means carbon emissions peak in the mid-2020s. Despite this peaking, little headway is made in terms of narios. Hydrogen will be the subject of a reducing carbon emissions from energy use, with emissions in 2050 less than 10% below 2018 levels. feature in the next CCBJ. R Primary energy demand increases by 10% in Rapid and Net Zero over the Outlook and by around 25% in BAU. 31 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021 S&P Global Market Intelligence Charts a USA Wind & Solar Installed Capacity in MW in 2020 U.S. Regional Path to Carbon-Free Power and Project Capacity in Pipeline as of October 2020 Generation by 2035

U.S. Renewables Pipeline Remains Very Strong Solar Installed Pipeline, Wind, ccording to S&P Global Market Intelligence, the U.S. 110,000 113,000 currently has approximately 158,000 MW of installed windA and solar capacity - 113,000 MW of wind and 45,000 MW of utility-scale solar.

The current pipeline would increase capacity by 150% as S&P Installed expects about 123,000 MW of wind and 110,000 MW of solar Solar, Wind 45,000 capacity in the various stages of planning. Pipeline, In terms of emerging grid-scale energy storage and offshore 123,000 wind industries, nearly 9,000 MW of storage is tied to solar, 8,600 MW of stand-alone capacity in planning, and 28,000 Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence; derived from data in Path to Carbon-Free MW of offshore wind is required via state mandates. Power Generation by 2035

Path to Carbon-Free Power Generation by 2035: Wind & Solar Projects

Announced or in Early Development as of October 2020

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence; Data as of Oct 10, 2020

32 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021

Projected Generation Mix: ISO-NE and Projected Generation Mix: ISO-NE and NYISO (2020-2035)

NYISO (2020-2035)

ISO-NE: Renewable Portfolio Stan- dard (RPS) legislation is in place in all the seven states with New York, Maine, Mas- sachusetts leading the way. Combined with offshore wind capacity targets, this region is arguably the “closest” to being on the right path to achieve carbon-free by 2035.

Renewables plus hydroelectric and nuclear power are expected to make up almost 80% of generation in the region

by 2035. Only ~5,700 MW of wind and solar capacity is operating in the region but nearly 25,000 MW is in the pipeline.

~48,500 MW capacity would be needed to Projected Generation Mix: Western U.S (2020-2035) keep up with RPS targets by 2035.

Meeting aggressive offshore wind tar- gets combined with energy storage devel- opment and continued leverage of hydro- electric and nuclear power, could get this region close to carbon-free by 2035.

Projected Generation Mix: Western U.S (2020-2035)

Western USA: Aggressive renewable legislation in CA, NM, WA, and NV drives substantial renewable demand.

Strong renewable pipelines across the region outpace RPS requirements as de- velopers take advantage of the robust so- Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence; Data as of Dec 7, 2020 lar and wind resources in the region. 45%

renewable generation is possible with the Projected Generation Mix: Mid- Almost 75,000 MW of wind capacity current pipeline and legislation. Continent Region (2020-2035) compared to 6,800 MW of solar capacity is

S&P estimates the region to be over 70% in operation. However, interest in solar de-

carbon-free by 2035 in the current state of Mid-Continent Region: The mid-con- velopment has exploded with 45,000 MW play. 23,500 MW of wind and 21,400 MW tinent region includes ERCOT, SPP and in the pipeline and another ~60,000 MW of solar capacity operate in the region. An- MISO territories, which are aggressive in of wind capacity in planning. other 60,000 MW combined capacity is wind development. However only a hand- Renewed tax credits, corporate demand, expected in planning. About 43,300 MW ful of states have RPS legislation in place. battery storage, grid upgrades and RPS capacity would be needed to keep up with Due to the strong combination of vol- increases are key to achieving the carbon- RPS targets by 2035. Continued battery untary renewable builds in the TX/SPP free goal. storage deployment, utilization of hydro- region and RPS demand in MN/IL/MI, electric and nuclear power and/or some renewables may contribute up to 40% of other breakthrough technology would be the region’s generation by 2035. required to replace natural gas capacity.

33 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021

Projected Generation Mix: Mid-Continent Region (2020-2035) Projected Generation Mix: PJM (2020-

2035)

MD, NJ and VA have aggressive RPS standards but OH and PA are currently falling behind.

Despite having strong renewable legis- lation in a few states, the region is expected to reach only 25% renewable generation by

2035. Maintaining nuclear generation is

seemingly a must.

Roughly 14,000 MW of wind and so-

lar capacity is in operation and another 29,000 MW capacity is in development.

The region requires nearly 60,000 MW ca- Projected Generation Mix: PJM* (2020-2035) pacity to meet the RPS demand.

Continued interest in offshore wind, expansion of battery storage development, nuclear, and other emerging technology, such as carbon capture will be needed to draw closer to the carbon-free goal.

Projected Generation Mix: Southeast

U.S. (2020-2035)

The region has almost non-existent RPS legislation in place – only NC with

12.5% standard.

Large gap to make up for carbon-free generation – coal and natural gas are ex- Projected Generation Mix: Southeast U.S. (2020-2035) pected to make up almost two-thirds of power generation in 2035 on the current

path.

Solar outpaces wind development 10-1 and will likely to continue. Only 12,000

MW of solar capacity is in planning across the entire Southeast.

A complete overhaul of the energy

sector will be necessary to get closer to a carbon-free goal by 2035. Substantial leg- islative action will be needed and political

support will be required to change radical-

ly. Aggressive pursuit of solar and battery

storage with self-imposed utility goals will

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence; Data as of Dec 7, 2020 be a good start. R

*Note: PJM Interconnection is a regional transmission organization (RTO) that coordinates the movement of

wholesale electricity in all or parts of Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia and the District of Columbia.

U.S. Installation Breakdown • In 2019, new PV installations have had a fair geographic mix across the United States, though most capacity was Annual installed in southern states. – The U.S. solar market is becoming less dependent • The United States installed 13.4 GWDC of PV in 2019 and 5.9 GWDC in on California, as California’s 2019 market share was Q4, and cumulative capacity reached 76.0 GW. the lowest on record. – 2019 U.S. PV installations were up 24% y/y with the residential and – States with nascent markets five years ago are now utility-scale markets growing 16% and 38%, respectively, but the driving significant demand. In 2015, Texas and non-residential markets contracting 4%. Florida totaled 4% of new U.S. PV installations and 34 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021 in 2019 represented 20%. U.S. AnnualU.S. PV Solar Installations PV Installations by Market by Market Segment Segment Solar Posts Record Gains 16

in Capacity Installations in ) 14 2019 U.S. PV Installations by Region

DC Utility (13.4 GWDC) 2020; Much More Growth to 12 Non-Residential PV Florida Come in the Global Market 10 Residential PV Southwest 10% he U.S. solar industry installed a re- 8 13% Southeast cord 19.2 gigawatts (GWdc) of ca- 6 Texas 22% Tpacity in 2020, according to the U.S. Solar 10% 4 Market Insight 2020 Year-in-Review re- Northeast port by the Solar Energy Industries Asso- 2 California ciation (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie. For (GW Annual PV Installed 13% 0 23% Midwest the second year in a row, solar led all tech- 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Other 3% nologies in new U.S. electric-generating 5% NREL | 33 capacity added, accounting for 43%, and Sources:WoodSources: Mackenzie/SEIA:Wood Mackenzie/SEIA: U.S. Solar U.S. Market Solar MarketInsight: Insight:Q2 2020 Q2 2020cited. in the Q4 2019/Q1 2020 Solar Industry outpacing wind for the fifth consecutive Update published by National Renewable Energy Laboratory, year in new capacity installations. Accord- The United States installed 13.4 GWdc of PV in 2019 and 5.9 GW in Q4, and cu- ing to Wood Mackenzie’s 10-year forecast mulative capacity reached 76 GW. PV installations were up 24% in 2019 with residential in March 2021, the U.S. solar industry will and utility-scale markets growing 16% and 38%, but commercial contracting 4%. 2019 PV install a cumulative 324 GWdc of new ca- installations had a fair geographic mix, and the U.S. solar market is becoming less depen- pacity to reach a total of 419 GWdc over dent on California, as Texas and Florida represented 20% of new 2019 PV installations, the next decade, with added capacity hov- up from 4% in 2015. The U.S. solar industry installed a record 19.2 GWdc of capacity ering on the 25-30 GW range annually in 2020. well over the previous record of 15.1 GWdc set in 2016. California, Texas and from 2021-2026, and a surge of utility- Florida were the top three states for additions for the second straight year, and Virginia scale installation in 2026-2030. joined them as a fourth state installing over 1 GW in 2020: 27 states installed over 100 The balance between utility and distrib- MWdc. 8 GWdc of new installations in Q4 2020 marked the largest quarter in U.S. solar uted or residential, community, commer- history, making up for a pandemic dip in Q2. 5 GWdc of new utility solar power purchase agreements were announced in Q4 2020, bringing the volume of project announcements cial, and institutional remains the subject of • Despite tariffs, PV modules and cells are being varying scenarios, depending on the analyst in 2020 to 30.6 ModuleGWdc and the full and utility-scale Cell contracted Import pipeline to Data69 GWdc. imported at historically high levels. or the advocacy group making the forecast, Solar PV Module and Cell Import Data in $ and MW, 2016-2020 but it is clear the prospects for growth in all – 7.1 GW of PV modules were imported in Q1 2020. 1,000 5000 market segments is expected to be robust. – Another 0.8 GW of cells were imported in Q1 2020. Cells ($) Modules ($) 900 4500 Tariff Impact Hits Big in 2018 but Cells (MW) Modules (MW) – Starting on February 7, 2020, Section 201 tariffs 800 4000 dropped from 25% to 20%, although additional tariffs Minimal in 2020 700 3500 still exist for Chinese products. According to DOE’s National Re- 600 3000 • In addition to imports, First Solar’s 1.9 GW Ohio newable Energy Laboratory, the United States imported about $8 billion of solar 500 2500 manufacturing facilities continued to produce in

PV modules in 2016, and about $5 billion 400 2000 Q1 2020. in 2017 before the Trump Administration – First Solar reported operating at 75% capacity in late 300 1500 PV Imports Imports U.S. PV into($MM) imposed 30% tariffs in January 2018. PV Imports the U.S. PV (MW) into March and April. module imports dropped to about $2 bil- 200 1000 • The United States imported a little more than 250 MW of lion in 2018, but have since recovered and 100 500 data through Q1 2020 indicate a pace of PV cells per month in Q1 2020, which would translate into more then $8 billion in 2020 U.S. imports 0 0 about 3 GW per year. SEIA reported that at the end of 2019, the United States had 6.8 GW of PV module Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19

of solar PV modules. Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 assembly capacity, implying that the industry was Despite ongoing tariffs, PV modules Sources: Imports, by value and MW: U.S. International Trade Commission, 2020; PV Magazine (10/24/19) from the Q4 operating around 45% utilization rate. NREL | 57 - 2019/Q1Sources :2020 Imports, Solar by Industry value Updateand MW: published U.S. International by National Renewable Trade Commission, Energy Laboratory, 2020; operatedPV Magazine by Alliance (10/24/19). for and cells were being imported at histori Sustainable Energy, LLC, for the U.S. Department of Energy cally high levels before the pandemic in Chinese Generation Capacity Additions by Source

• In 2019, solar contributed 27% to new generation capacity in China • As China grows its electricity infrastructure, it has (30.1 GW) and 10% of cumulative capacity (205 GW). rapidly incorporated non-carbon sources of electricity – 2019 was the third straight year that wind and solar contributed more generation. than half of all new electric generation in China (51%); however, 2019 was – Since 2010, China has more than doubled its installed electric also the second year of a decline in combined new capacity additions. generation capacity, and at the same time, it reduced the – Chinese annual electric generation capacity additions have averaged 4–6 percentage of total coal and gas capacity from 74% to 59%. times greater than additions by the United States for the past 10 years. – From 2010 to 2019, new non-carbon generation capacity as a

35 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change percentage1st Quarterof total 2021 new capacity increased from 37% to 58%.

Chinese GenerationAnnual Capacity Capacity Additions Additions by (GW) Source, 2010-2019 Q1 2020: 7.1 GW of PV modulesCumulative and 0.8 Capacity (GW) 160 142 GW2,500 of cells were imported into the USA in Q1 2020. Starting on February 7, 2020, 2,011 140 121 125 125 123 1,900 111 15 111 Section 201 tariffs dropped from 25% to 1,777 120 Solar 2,000 1,652 96 11 20%, although additional tariffs still exist 174 205 Solar 92 34 1,521 130 100 84 53 Wind for Chinese products. 1,379 77 Wind 44 30 1,500 1,258 43 80 Hydro 1,063 1,147 28 Hydro Other In addition966 to imports, First Solar’s 1.9 60 GW1,000 Ohio manufacturing facilities con- Other Nuclear 40 tinued to produce in Q1 2020, operating Nuclear Coal and Gas 20 at 50075% capacity in April 2020. The United Coal and Gas 0 States imported a little more than 250 MW of PV cells per month in Q1 2020, 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0 or a pace 2010of close2011 3 GW2012 per2013 year.2014 SEIA2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 NREL | 8 Source: ChinaSource: Electric Council, China accessed Electric (2017, Council, 2018, 2019, accessed 2020) cited (2017, in NREL 2018, 2019, 2020). reported that at the end of 2019, the Unit- ed States had 6.8 GW of PV module as- In 2019, solar contributed 27% to new generation capacity in China (30.1 GW) and sembly capacity, implying that the industry 10% of cumulative capacity (205 GW). 2019 was the third straight year that wind and was operating around 45% utilization rate solar contributed more than half of all new electric generation in China, but 2019 was in module assembly. the second year of a decline in combined new capacity additions. Chinese annual elec- tric generation capacity additions have averaged 4–6 times greater than additions by the China continues to dominate global so- United States forGlobal the past 10 Annualyears. Since 2010, PV China Shipments has more than doubled by its electric lar markets, although Malaysia, Vietnam, generation capacity, and reduced the percentage of coal and gas capacity from 74% to 59%. and South Korea have made recent strides Global Annual PV ShipmentsRegion* by Region: 2010-2019 in the marketshare rankings. U.S. share has fallen from 6% in 2010 to less than 7% ROW 140 •1%In since 2019, 2016, global with JapanPV shipments and Europe wereon Taiwan similarlyapproximately declining slopes. 123 China’sGW— ownan increase do- of 39% South Korea 6% Vietnam 120 mesticfrom annual 2018. electric generation capacity Malaysia •additionsSince 2010,peaked inthe 2015, U.S. and share coal andof globalgas PV 5% China 100 haveshipments been less than declined a majority from of the around added 6% to less than Japan capacity in the years since. Less than 20% EU 1%. of new electric generation capacity the U.S. 4% U.S. 80 • Over the same time period: U.S. Share in 2020– China’s was from share natural of gas global for the PV first shipments grew time, and one would expect China will 3% 60 from 37% to 63%. soon near that figure. – Together the share of Malaysia, Vietnam, Percent of ShipmentsPercent 2% 40 (GW) Shipments Global Scenarioand planningSouth Korea remains went challenging from 8% to 24% (with for energyVietnamese futurists. The growth trajectory coming of the on rapidly during 1% 20 energy thestorage last industry four years). and battery tech- nology and costs is a significant unknown in 2021, but many believe it will follow the 0% 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 path of commercial deployment like wind Source: 2010-2019:*Note: Excludes Paula inventory Mints. “Photovoltaic sales and outsourcing. Manufacturer Capacity, Shipments, Price & Revenues 2019/2020.” SPV and solar before. Nuclear is also a player as Source: 2010-2019: Paula Mints. "Photovoltaic Manufacturer Capacity, Shipments, Price & Revenues NREL | 48 Market Research.2019/2020." Report SPV SPV-SupplyMarket Research. issued Report 8. April SPV 2020.-Supply8. April 2020. provider of consistent baseline power, par- In 2019, global PV shipments were approximately 123 GW—an increase of 39% from ticularly as small modular reactors (SMRs) 2018. Since 2010, the U.S. share of global PV shipments declined from 6% to less than gain in cost efficiency, safety and market 1%. Over the same time period, China’s share of global PV shipments grew from 37% to acceptance. Biogas and biofuels will also 63% and together the share of Malaysia, Vietnam, and South Korea went from 8% to 24%, retain significant roles as much of their with Vietnam coming on rapidly during the last few years. Data from the UN’s Comtrade feedstock consumption also represents system for commodity code 854140 (mostly PVs) in 2020 showed US imports of $10.5 other environmental benefits, and as the supply chains of wind and solar face fur- billion in 2020, up from $8.4 billion in 2019. China’s share of these imports was 5% the R last two years after a peak of 48% in 2011, and falling from 35% in 2-14 to 11% in 2018. ther scrutiny. 36 Climate Change Business Journal Market Intelligence on Climate Change 1st Quarter 2021 A Last Word on Climate Policy CLIMATE CHANGE BUSINESS JOURNAL Jan Walstrom, Senior Vice President of Strategy and COMPANY INDEX Solutions at Jacobs, responds to CCBJ’s model valuing natural infrastructure at $33 quadrillion AECOM 4, 5, 7 American Councils for International Education 21 Please comment on how you see CCBJ’s model on the American Forest Foundation 21 economic value of natural infrastructure relating to future American Security Project 13 climate and economic policy, and the integration of climate American Society of Adaptation Professionals 2, 13 economics into the global economic system. Antea Group 4 CCBJ’s conceptual model for the estimated monetary value Arcadis 4, 6 of natural infrastructure raises awareness of the need to pro- AIR Worldwide 10 Brizaga 10 tect the planet’s natural capital, but the reality is that value is California State University 20 dictated by willingness to pay, most often at the local level. For Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research 24 companies, willingness to pay (and acknowledge the true cost CHANGE Environmental 3 of operations) comes in the form of seeing and understanding CleanBay Renewables Inc. 9 the business risks associated with continuing their operations EA Engineering Science and Technology 1, 6, 18, 19 without change. As public and private entities internalize the Element Markets 5, 15, 16 idea that our natural capital is finite and it’s degradation by Engie 9 them – and society at large – increases their business risks, ERM 6 they will work toward more sustainable solutions in their op- Florida Atlantic University 10 erations. Fugro USA Inc. 6 Greater Than 8 How would such a system impact corporate sustainability Hannon Armstrong 9 strategy? ICF 4, 10 Institute for Water and Environmental Resilience 26 In the not too distant future, a company’s sustainability International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis 24, 25 strategy will be wholly integrated into their business strategy. Jacobs 2, 7, 8 There is no question that “green innovations” can lower oper- Kimley-Horn and Associates 10 ating costs, and in the short term provide a competitive ad- Kleinfelder 4 vantage. But going forward, the absence of an ESG strategy LevelTen Energy 2, 8 will decrease access to financial capital, and potentially imperil Matrix Renewables 17 a company’s license to operate. Growing awareness, influ- MicroBioGen Pty Ltd 5 ence and action by a broad spectrum of company stakeholders National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration 26 (regulators, investors, government officials, employees, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory 34 public at large) who will increasingly demand greater carbon Orion Environmental Inc. 7, 12 footprint accountability and the mitigation of associated eco- Paris-Saclay University 24 logical and social impacts, will become the new norm. Rincon Consultants Inc. 5 Shell Australia 9 What new services would the environmental industry of Solar Energy Industries Association 34 today be best served to provide? S&P Global Market Intelligence 31 Stetson University 26 Jacobs, in partnership with Biomimicry 3.8, offers a range Sunrun 9 of integrated planning, design and implementation services Sustainable Business Consulting 7 that: 1) assess the opportunity to incorporate specific natural Tetra Tech Inc. 4, 8, 20 capital solutions; 2) take into account change over time and The Nature Conservancy 22, 23 the ecological and socio-economic ripple effects and oppor- Trina Solar 17 tunities associated with natural capital-related decisions; and Veolia North America 2 3) facilitate achieving net positive performance. The days of Verra 22, 23 simply minimizing impacts are over; today, we need to cre- Willis Towers Watson 8 ate greater value, integrating regenerative best practices that Wood Mackenzie 34 WSP USA 6, 13, 14 improve the health and wellbeing of ecosystems and the com- Yarra Valley Water 2 munities who depend on them. R