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Comparative Assessment of Energy Options and Strategies in Mexico Until 2025

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Comparative Assessment of Energy Options and Strategies in Mexico Until 2025 IAEA-TECDOC-1469 Comparative assessment of energy options and strategies in Mexico until 2025 Final report of a coordinated research project 2000–2004 October 2005 IAEA-TECDOC-1469 Comparative assessment of energy options and strategies in Mexico until 2025 Final report of a coordinated research project 2000–2004 October 2005 The originating Section of this publication in the IAEA was: Planning and Economic Studies Section International Atomic Energy Agency Wagramer Strasse 5 P.O. Box 100 A-1400 Vienna, Austria COMPARATIVE ASSESSMENT OF ENERGY OPTIONS AND STRATEGIES IN MEXICO UNTIL 2025 IAEA, VIENNA, 2005 IAEA-TECDOC-1469 ISBN 92–0–111105–3 ISSN 1011–4289 © IAEA, 2005 Printed by the IAEA in Austria October 2005 FOREWORD Mexico is undergoing significant changes in the energy sector, in particular in the electric power sector, such as the restructuring of power markets; increasing emphasis on socio- economic and environmental impacts of the electric power system; and consideration of an higher role for energy technologies compatible with sustainable development. The Mexican Government has identified the need for ensuring a sustainable pattern of production, distribution and use of energy and electricity. In this context, a comparative assessment analysis is a prerequisite for planning of the future energy and electricity facilities of the country in order to make timely decisions. It requires the identification of the expected levels of energy and electricity demand and the options that are available to meet these demands, taking special note of the national energy resources and potential imported sources. Further analysis would be needed for the optimization of the supply options to meet the demand in the most efficient and economic manner with due consideration of the environmental impacts and resource requirements. In accordance with its mandate, the IAEA has developed a systematic approach along with a set of computer-based models for elaborating national energy strategies covering the analysis of all of the above aspects. Under its Technical Cooperation Programme, the IAEA provides assistance to its Member States to enhance national capabilities for elaborating sustainable energy development strategies and assessing the role of nuclear power and other energy options, by transferring the analytical tools along with training and providing expertise. The present report describes the results of the Comparative Assessment of Energy Options and Strategies until 2025 study for Mexico conducted by the Secretaría de Energía, in cooperation with several national institutions, in particular the University of México. The comprehensive national analysis focuses on energy and electricity demand analysis and projections, least-cost electric system expansion analysis, energy resource allocation to power and non-power sectors and environmental analysis. Because many of the assumptions made for the study are the result of expert consensus but have not been validated or endorsed by the Government, the present study should not be considered as the Energy and Electricity Master Plan for Mexico, but rather as a very real attempt to evaluate the possible evolution of the energy and electricity consumption under certain scenarios of socioeconomic and technical development. Likewise, the expansion plans of the electricity supply system delineated by the study should not be taken as the Government plan in this area. The findings of the study do, however, provide more insight as to the possible strategies for developing the power generating system and the necessary work to be undertaken to supplement the results of the study or to update it, if deviations are experienced in the principal hypothesis made for the study. It should be noted that the Secretaría de Energía, Mexico, was fully responsible for all phases of the study, including the preparation of the present report. The IAEA’s role was to provide overall coordination and guidance throughout the conduct of the study, and to guarantee that adequate training in the use of IAEA energy planning models was provided to the members of the national team. The IAEA officer responsible for this publication was Kee-Yung Nam of the Department of Nuclear Energy. EDITORIAL NOTE The use of particular designations of countries or territories does not imply any judgement by the publisher, the IAEA, as to the legal status of such countries or territories, of their authorities and institutions or of the delimitation of their boundaries. The mention of names of specific companies or products (whether or not indicated as registered) does not imply any intention to infringe proprietary rights, nor should it be construed as an endorsement or recommendation on the part of the IAEA. CONTENTS 1. SUMMARY......................................................................................................................1 1.1. Objectives and scope of the study ...................................................................... 1 1.2. Institutional setup............................................................................................... 2 1.3. Major assumptions of the study.......................................................................... 3 1.3.1. Demographic assumption....................................................................... 3 1.3.2. Economic assumption............................................................................. 3 1.3.3. Energy and environmental policies......................................................... 3 1.4. Energy and electricity demand-supply and emissions results ............................ 4 1.4.1. Reference case scenario results............................................................... 4 1.4.2. Alternative scenario 1 (limited gas supply scenario).............................. 7 1.4.3. Alternative scenario 2 (nuclear scenario) ............................................... 8 1.4.4. Alternative scenario 3 (renewables scenario) ......................................... 9 1.5. Least-cost plan for expansion of the electricity generation system.................... 9 1.6. Others................................................................................................................ 13 1.7. Conclusions ...................................................................................................... 14 1.8. Structure of full report ...................................................................................... 15 2. ECONOMY AND ENERGY ......................................................................................... 17 2.1. Background information................................................................................... 17 2.2. Energy resources............................................................................................... 17 2.2.1. Crude oil reserves ................................................................................. 17 2.2.2. Natural gas reserves .............................................................................. 18 2.2.3. Coal reserves......................................................................................... 20 2.2.4. Uranium reserves .................................................................................. 21 2.2.5. Hydro-electric resources ....................................................................... 21 2.2.6. Geothermal resources ........................................................................... 22 2.2.7. Wind resources..................................................................................... 25 2.3. Energy supply................................................................................................... 27 2.3.1. Crude oil production ............................................................................. 30 2.3.2. Natural gas production.......................................................................... 33 2.3.3. Coal production..................................................................................... 35 2.3.4. Uranium production.............................................................................. 36 2.3.5. Hydro-electric capacity and energy production.................................... 36 2.3.6. Geothermal capacity and energy production ........................................ 37 2.3.7. Wind capacity and energy production .................................................. 37 2.4. Energy consumption......................................................................................... 38 2.4.1. Oil sector (refineries, gas, fractionating plants) energy consumption.......................................................................................... 39 2.4.2. Power sector capacity, generation and consumption............................ 40 2.4.3. Power sector capacity ........................................................................... 40 2.4.4. Power sector generation........................................................................ 40 2.4.5. Power sector energy sources consumption ........................................... 41 2.4.6. Power sector transmission lines............................................................ 43 2.4.7. Power sector international commerce................................................... 43 2.4.8. End use sectors energy consumption.................................................... 44 2.4.9. Industrial sector energy consumption................................................... 46 2.4.10. Residential sector energy consumption ...............................................
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