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Automobile OVERWEIGHT March 29, 2019

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Automobile OVERWEIGHT March 29, 2019 Industry Note Automobile OVERWEIGHT March 29, 2019 Key takeaways from the 2019 Seoul Motor Show Auto/Auto Parts/Tire Jang Moon-su Major issues and conclusions +822-3787-2639 - The 2019 Seoul Motor Show, despite the lack of a new perspective which confirms changing trends, did showcase the [email protected] following: 1) an improving mix and new model strategies to recover domestic sales; 2) cutting-edge technologies characterized by green and autonomous vehicles; and 3) the auto industry’s move toward establishing an infrastructure to expand mobility services. - 2019 to witness a series of new volume model launches (Hyundai Motor Sonata and SsangYong Korando) as well as strengthening green car and SUV lineups, which should help improve product mixes and boost sales volumes. Industry and stock outlook - Concerns over Hyundai Sonata and potential SUV mix deterioration at Kia to dissipate. 1) Sonata’s mass production to resume in early May; HEV and turbo models to help the company to achieve its 2019 domestic sales target of 80,000 units. 2) SP2 and Mohave to ease worries over Kia Motors’ lineup and help improve its product mix in 2H19. 3) SUV’s growing share of sales and increasing content to nudge up Hyundai Mobis’s ASP and boost core parts sales. - We recommend Mobis for its fat A/S margins and earnings visibility, Hyundai for its new model momentum in the near term. 2019 Seoul Motor Show showcases major carmakers’ new models and strategies 1. Keywords: sustainable, connected, mobility - Theme: sustainable and intelligent mobility revolution; green evolution through sustainable energy, intelligent cars, a new vision of mobility - Participants: 162 finished car makers, auto parts suppliers and others, including Hyundai Motor Company (005380.KS, BUY), Kia Motors (000270.KS, BUY), SsangYong Motor (003620.KS, not rated), and Tesla. Exhibition: six Korean names and 15 foreign carmakers showcased 154 models, including 36 new cars. 36 new cars unveiled; focus is on domestic mix improvements and volume recovery 1. Strategic direction 1) Model strategies to improve domestic mix and recover volume - Hyundai: 1H19 key model Sonata’s design philosophy, convenience features, and lineup expansion (HEV, turbo) - Kia: Mohave, a model that can help improve the domestic SUV mix; a new SP2; and a new green concept car - SsangYong: full-change model of Korando and the plans to expand its green car lineup - Renault Samsung; targets to recover market share by launching the XM3 - GM: plans to expand lineup especially with SUVs such as Traverse, Colorado, and Tahoe 2) Technological development with green and autonomous cars - Green cars: Hyundai Sonata Hybrid, Kia’s Imagine concept, SsangYong Korando hybrid, Tesla/Mercedes- Benz/BMW green models, Hyundai Mobis/BYD/JATCO green technologies - Autonomous driving/mobility: SK Telecom (017670.KS, BUY), Mobis (012330.KS, BUY) and Kia showcased cutting-edge technologies and concepts INDUSTRY NOTE 2. Brand highlights 1) Hyundai: Sonata Hybrid, 1.6 turbo lineup - Sonata Hybrid: improved mileage (by 10%), roof solar panel, annual mileage up by 1,300km - Sonata 1.6 turbo: parametric jewel pattern grille, 180 horsepower smart stream 1.6 turbo engine, eight-speed A/T 2) Kia: Mohave Masterpiece and SP2 volume concept car - Mohave Masterpiece: Mohave F/L volume concept car, bold outer design change and cutting-edge convenience technology - SP Signature: SP2, a small SUV that shares the same platform with Hyundai’s Kona (worldwide debut) - Imagine by Kia: crossover EV concept, logo change, 21 ultra-high pixel overlay display (Asian debut) - R.E.A.D. system technology: short for real time emotion adaptive driving -> Expected to improve Kia’s SUV mix 3) SsangYong: Korando full model change - Plans to develop EV and hybrid models off Korando - Would be Korea’s first semi-medium-size SUV EV targeting 400km run on a single charge; development of hybrid model is also under way -> New volume models to boost market share; plans to expand green car lineup off volume models 4) Renault Samsung: XM2 Inspire - Production to begin in 1H20 at Busan factory, contributing to a recovery of utilization rate - Entering a new segment with a crossover SUV to help recover market share - Renault Master Bus (domestic launch scheduled for 2019) and EZ-PRO (autonomous car) 5) GM Korea: SUV-led lineup expansion to help recover domestic market share - Traverse (large SUV), Colorado (mid-size pickup truck) to debut in 2H19, Tahoe (full-size SUV) - Expanded lineup to be unveiled at the beginning of 2020 -> Plans to reduce dependence on sedans and strengthen its SUV lineup to overcome domestic issues and the previous model’s failure 6) Mobis: gearing up to become a green/autonomous/mobility technology specialist - Displayed the parts for a mobility concept, motorization (bi-directional charger, 48V mild hybrid system), connectivity (KRELLL sound, digital cluster), and autonomous driving (intelligent head lamp, electronic power steering, parking assistance system) -> Widening the scope of business to cover not only actuators but intelligent auto parts and software 7) SK Telecom: a string of state-of-the-art technologies to help establish a mobility ecosystem - Autonomous-enabling technologies such as 5G modules, single photon LiDAR, HD map update; preparing to establish a mobility service -> Widening business scope utilizing the synergy within the group from telecom infrastructure-based semiconductors to energy (battery) and automotive services Stronger lineup (volume models, green cars and EVs) to improve mix and boost volume 1. Concerns over Hyundai Sonata and Kia’s SUV mix deterioration to dissipate - Sonata’s mass production to resume in early May; the addition of HEV and turbo models to help Hyundai achieve its 2019 domestic sales goal of 80,000 units. - SP2 and Mohave to ease worries over Kia’s aging car lineup and help improve its product mix in 2H19 - SUV’s growing share of sales and increasing content to nudge up Mobis’ s ASP and boost core parts sales 2 Auto/Auto Parts/Tire Chang Moon-su +822-3787-2639 / [email protected] 2. We recommend Mobis for its earnings stability and Hyundai Motor for its fast earnings recovery - We like Mobis for its fat A/S margins and earnings visibility; Hyundai Motor for its new model momentum in the near term 3 INDUSTRY NOTE Investment rating and target price history Two-year price chart: Hyundai Motor Company Date Rating TP Difference (%) Average High/low 18/11/02 BUY 150,000 - -100.0 (KRW) 18/11/05 BUY 150,000 -32.1 -27.7 250,000 18/12/04 BUY 150,000 -32.0 -27.7 18/12/05 BUY 150,000 -27.6 -18.0 200,000 19/01/03 BUY 150,000 -27.5 -18.0 150,000 19/01/04 BUY 150,000 -27.0 -18.0 19/01/09 BUY 150,000 -24.5 -12.7 100,000 19/01/25 BUY 150,000 -23.5 -12.7 Hyundai Motor 19/02/07 BUY 150,000 -23.4 -12.7 50,000 Target price 19/02/08 BUY 150,000 -22.4 -12.7 19/02/28 BUY 150,000 -22.3 -12.7 0 16.12 17.03 17.06 17.09 17.12 18.03 18.06 18.09 18.12 19.03 19/03/05 BUY 150,000 -22.3 -12.7 19/03/06 BUY 150,000 -21.6 -12.7 19/03/29 BUY 150,000 - - Investment rating and target price history Two-year price chart: Kia Motors Date Rating TP Difference (%) Average High/low 18/10/29 BUY 37,000 -23.4 -22.4 (KRW) 18/11/02 BUY 37,000 -22.6 -20.1 70,000 18/11/05 BUY 37,000 -21.8 -17.6 60,000 18/12/04 BUY 37,000 -21.7 -17.6 50,000 18/12/05 BUY 37,000 -17.6 -8.5 19/01/03 BUY 37,000 -17.5 -8.5 40,000 19/01/04 BUY 37,000 -16.8 -5.8 30,000 19/01/09 BUY 40,000 -12.0 -8.4 20,000 Kia Motors 19/01/28 BUY 40,000 -11.7 -8.4 Target price 10,000 19/02/07 BUY 40,000 -11.6 -8.4 19/02/08 BUY 40,000 -10.8 -7.5 0 16.12 17.03 17.06 17.09 17.12 18.03 18.06 18.09 18.12 19.03 19/03/05 BUY 40,000 -10.8 -7.5 19/03/06 BUY 40,000 -11.9 -7.5 19/03/29 BUY 40,000 - - Investment rating and target price history Two-year price chart: Hyundai Mobis Date Rating TP Difference (%) Average High/low 18/11/02 BUY 290,000 - -100.0 (KRW) 18/11/05 BUY 290,000 -36.6 -32.6 400,000 18/12/04 BUY 290,000 -36.7 -32.6 350,000 18/12/05 BUY 290,000 -35.5 -29.1 300,000 19/01/03 BUY 290,000 -35.5 -29.1 250,000 19/01/04 BUY 290,000 -35.1 -29.1 200,000 19/01/10 BUY 290,000 -33.9 -25.9 150,000 19/01/28 BUY 290,000 -33.1 -22.4 Hyundai Mobis 100,000 19/02/07 BUY 290,000 -32.9 -22.4 Target price 19/02/08 BUY 290,000 -31.7 -22.4 50,000 19/02/27 BUY 290,000 -31.5 -22.4 0 16.11 17.02 17.05 17.08 17.11 18.02 18.05 18.08 18.11 19.02 19/03/05 BUY 290,000 -31.4 -22.4 19/03/06 BUY 290,000 -30.8 -22.4 19/03/29 BUY 290,000 - - 4 Auto/Auto Parts/Tire Chang Moon-su +822-3787-2639 / [email protected] Compliance note • The author(s) of this report does(do) not have any interests in the company(ies) covered herein.
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