Ostrich 2004, 75(4): 295–308 Copyright © NISC Pty Ltd Printed in South Africa — All rights reserved OSTRICH ISSN 0030–6525 Please respond to queries in red — Thanks Climate change and birds: perspectives and prospects from southern Africa Robert E Simmons1*, Phoebe Barnard2, WRJ Dean1, Guy F Midgley3, Wilfried Thuiller3 and Greg Hughes3 1 Percy FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7700, Cape Town, South Africa 2 Global Invasive Species Programme, National Botanical Institute, Private Bag X7, Claremont 7735, Cape Town, South Africa 3 Climate Change Research Group, Ecology and Conservation, Kirstenbosch Research Centre, South African National Biodiversity Institute, Private Bag X7, Claremont 7735, Cape Town, South Africa *Corresponding author, e-mail:
[email protected] Global climate warming, now conclusively linked to anthropogenically-increased CO2 levels in the earth’s atmosphere, has already had impacts on the earth’s biodiversity and is predicted to threaten more than 1 million species with extinction by 2050. Climate change in southern Africa is expected to involve higher temperatures and lower rainfall, with less predictability and a greater frequency of severe storms, fires and El Niño events. The predicted changes to birds in Africa — the continent most at risk from climate change — have hardly been explored, yet birds and many other vertebrates face uncertain futures. Here, in one of the first focused analyses of the correlates of climate change vulnerability in southern African birds, we offer a wide- ranging perspective on which species may be most at risk, and explore which traits may influence the adaptability or extinc- tion risk of bird species.