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2018 EU-Wide Transparency Exercise

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2018 EU-Wide Transparency Exercise 2018 EU-wide transparency exercise European Banking Authority (EBA) © Management Solutions 2019. All reserved All rights Solutions 2019. Management© www.managementsolutions.com Research and Development © Management Solutions 2019. Todos los derechos reservadosFebruary Página 2019 1 Index Introduction Aggregated results Results per country Outlook and recommendations Annex © Management Solutions 2019. All rights reserved Page 2 Introduction Context and objective In December 2018 the EBA published the results of the 2018 EU-wide transparency exercise, which provide detailed information on, among others, capital, leverage, risk weighted assets (RWA), P&L, credit risk, market risk, or asset quality Introduction • The EBA has been conducting transparency exercises at the EU-wide level on an annual basis since 2011. These exercises are part of the EBA's ongoing efforts to foster transparency and market discipline in the EU financial market, and complements banks' own Pillar 3 disclosures, as laid down in the CRD IV. • Further, the transparency exercises are, unlike the stress tests, disclosure exercises where only bank-by-bank data are published and no shocks are applied to the actual data. • In this context, the EBA has published the results of the EU-wide 2018 transparency exercise1, which will facilitate the consistent comparison and assessment of the resilience of banks across time and at a country and a bank-by-bank level. In particular, this document assesses the results relative to the potential impact on: • Capital (CET1 phase-in and fully loaded), taking into account the impact of the implementation of IFRS 9 • RWAs for credit, market and operational risk • Non-performing loans (NPLs) and forborne loans (FBLs) • P&L (net interest income, net fee and commission income and aggregate P&L) • Leverage ratio (LR) • According to the results of this exercise, the EU banking sector has continued to benefit from the positive macroeconomic developments in most European countries, which contributed to the increase in lending, further strengthening of banks' capital ratios and improvements in asset quality. Profitability remains low on average and has not yet reached sustainable levels. This Technical Note analyses the main 2018 EU-wide transparency exercise results focusing on the aggregated results across the EU, as well as on the results of the countries with the highest volume of assets within the banking system. 1. The results of this exercise are included in the Risk Assessment of the European Banking System – December 2018 (link) © Management Solutions 2019. All rights reserved Page 3 Introduction Main aspects (sample of banks, reference dates and sources of data) The 2018 EU-wide transparency exercise includes data from 130 banks at the highest EU level of consolidation for December 2017 and June 2018, based on FINREP and COREP Banks’ sample, reference dates and sources of data • 130 banks1 at the highest EU level of • More than 7,000 data Sample Sources consolidation, from 25 EEA countries2 of data points per bank, based on supervisory reporting data (FINREP, COREP) Reference • December 2017 and June 2018 dates Scope of application Number of banks per participating country: Germany: 20 Belgium: 6 Malta: 3 Spain: 12 Luxemburg: 5 Slovenia: 3 France: 11 Portugal: 5 Norway: 3 Italy: 11 Denmark: 4 Finland: 2 Sweden: 7 Greece: 4 Poland: 2 Netherlands: 6 Ireland: 4 Bulgaria: 1 UK: 6 Cyprus: 3 Estonia: 1 Austria: 6 Iceland: 3 Hungary: 1 Romania: 1 1. European Economic Area. 2. For further details on the list of participating banks, see annex 1. © Management Solutions 2019. All rights reserved Page 4 Index Introduction Aggregated results Results per country Outlook and recommendations Annex © Management Solutions 2019. All rights reserved Page 5 Aggregated results EU The CET 1 ratio moves from 14.6% fully loaded in December 2017 to 14.3% in June 2018 due to seasonality factors and the first application of IFRS 9. The Tier 1 and total capital ratios also decrease when comparing the data from December 2017 and June 2018 Capital CET 1 (%) Tier 1 and Total Capital Ratio (%) 19.07% 18.75% 14.87% 16.27% 16.03% 14.61% 14.51% 14.27% Dec.2017 Jun.2018 Dec.2017 Jun.2018 CET 1 transitional Tier 1 capital ratio (transitional) CET 1 fully loaded Total capital ratio (transitional) • At aggregated level, the EU banks’ CET1 ratio • Similar to the results for the transitional and fully have decreased for both transitional and fully loaded CET1, the transparency exercise shows loaded. In particular: that: • The CET1 transitional ratio decreased from • The Tier 1 capital ratio decreased from 14.9% to 14.5%; whereas 16.3% to 16.0%; whereas • The CET1 fully loaded ratio decreased from • The total capital ratio decreased from 14.6% to 14.3%. 19.1% to 18.8%. • This decrease is driven by different factors, • The dispersion among banks and countries has including seasonality (distribution of dividends), remained wide (i.e. 35% of the banks have a but also the first application of IFRS 91. total capital ratio below 17% in June 2018). 1. Data from supervisory reporting do not provide the first time application impact of IFRS 9 in CET1. However, the results from the EBA’s stress test exercise revealed that the impact of the move to IFRS 9 on banks’ aggregate CET1 capital ratio was -10 bps on a transitional basis and -20 bps on a fully loaded basis. © Management Solutions 2019. All rights reserved Page 6 Aggregated results EU The leverage ratio moves from 5.4% fully loaded in December 2017 to 5.1% in June 2018. Moreover, the total RWAs increases a 1,15% in June 2018 due to the increase in lending to households in credit risk, and the increased volatility of financial markets Leverage and RWAs LR (%) 5.55% • As of June 2018, the LR stood at 5.4% considering the 5.37% 5.31% 5.12% transitional definition of Tier 1; and at 5.1% if a fully phased-in definition of Tier 1 capital is used. Dec.2017 Jun.2018 • These results shows a decrease of 24 bps and 25 bps LR transitional for the LR transitional and fully loaded, respectively. LR fully loaded RWAs by risk type (€ bn) • The total RWAs have increased a 1.1% in June 2018, compared to December 2017. Credit and 11,249 11,378 market risks were the main drivers of the RWA 9,124 9,221 increase in 2018: • The increase in credit risk in the first half of 691 713 1,182 1,189 59 77 2018 (i.e. 1% since Dec.17) reflects the increase in lending to households and Total* Credit Market Operational Others non-financial company/corporate (NFCs). • The increase in market risk was significant Dec.2017 Jun.2018 (i.e. 3% since Dec.17) and most likely due to the increased volatility of financial markets. * Including, risk exposure amount for Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA). © Management Solutions 2019. All rights reserved Page 7 Aggregated results EU The NPL ratio moves from 4.1% in December 2017 to 3.6% in June 2018 due to the significant reductions of NPL sales, specially in the SMEs sector. The FBLs ratio also decreases from 2.60% in December 2017 to 2.30% in June 2018 NPLs and FBLs NPLs (%) • Asset quality has further improved as the NPL ratio1 of EU banks has decreased from 4.1% in December 2017 to 3.6% in June 2018. It is the 4.05% 3.58% lowest level since the NPL definition was harmonised across European countries in 2014, when the NPL ratio stood at 6.5%. • NPL sales contributed significantly to these reductions. However, Dec.2017 Jun.2018 vulnerabilities from downside risks to economic growth, revival of protectionism and elevated political risk remain high, which might jeopardise banks’ efforts to reduce NPLs. • SMEs are the sector in which banks have reduced their NPLs the most. FBLs (%) 2.60% 2.30% • Similar to the NPL ratio, the forborne loan (FBL) ratio has declined steadily, by 30 bps to 2.3% in June 2018 compared with December 2017. • The pace of reduction of both the NPL ratio and the FBL ratio is in line with previous quarters. Dec.2017 Jun.2018 1. Loans and advances (including at amortised cost and fair value) © Management Solutions 2019. All rights reserved Page 8 Aggregated results EU Net interest income (NII), net fee and commission income, and the aggregate P&L have declined in June 2018, compared with December 2017 P&L P&L (€ bn) Net interest income Net fee and commission income Aggregate P&L (€ bn) (€ bn) (€ bn) 356 178 174 119 89 71 Dec.2017 Jun.2018 Dec.2017 Jun.2018 Dec.2017 Jun.2018 • One of the key challenges for banks in recent years has been that they have not been able to increase revenues. This is also explained by asset reduction programmes in the years since the financial crisis. NII is the most important source of revenues for banks. • In this context, the 2018 transparency exercise shows that: • NII has decreased from 356 bn € to 178 bn € in June 2018, which represents a decline of a 50%. • Net fee and commission income has declines from 174 bn € to 89 bn € in June 2018, which represents a fall of 49%. • Aggregate P&L has decreased from 119 bn € to 71 bn € in June 2018, that represents a decline of 40%. © Management Solutions 2019. All rights reserved Page 9 Index Introduction Aggregated results Results per country Outlook and recommendations Annex © Management Solutions 2019. All rights reserved Page 10 Results per country Capital Spain experiences the greatest decrease of the CET 1 transitional ratio. Regarding the CET1 fully loaded, Italy registers the greatest decrease Capital CET 1 transitional (%) -0.85 bps -0.88 bps -0.35 bps -0.53 bps -0.07 bps 16.25% 15.40% 14.29% 13.94% 14.58% 14.51% 14.87% 14.51% 12.42% 11.54% 13.28% 12.75% Dec.2017 Jun.2018 Germany Spain France Italy UK EU CET 1 fully loaded (%) -0.43 bps -0.31 bps -0.36 bps -1.08 bps -0.24 bps 15.82% 15.39% 14.27% 13.91% 12.96% 14.58% 14.34% 14.61% 14.27% 11.38% 11.88% 11.07% Dec.2017 Jun.2018 Germany Spain France Italy UK EU Greatest impact across the five jurisdictions considered.
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