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From Control to Influence: Cognition in the Grey Zone

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From Control to Influence: Cognition in the Grey Zone From Control to Influence: Cognition in the Grey Zone Report for the Pentagon Joint Staff Strategic Multilayer Assessment Group Nicholas D. Wright – v2 July 2017– From Control to Influence: Cognition in the Grey Zone The research described in this report was sponsored by the Strategic Multilayer Assessment Group as part of a SOCOM project on Gray Zone. Further information may be obtained from the Institute for Conflict, Cooperation and Security, University of Birmingham, UK. The Institute for Conflict, Cooperation and Security was established at the University of Birmingham, UK in 2012. Its key purpose is to promote a multidisciplinary approach to global security challenges. The University of Birmingham is one of the UK’s Russell Group of leading universities. Acknowledgements: Research assistance was provided by students at the University of Birmingham, namely Diana Dascalu, Kiran Manku, Fadhila Inas Pratiwa, Veronika Klymova, Brittany Atkinson and Juweria Ali. Stefanie Hills from Loughborough University and Oliver Fitton from Lancaster University contributed to the cyber conflict chapters. Dr Diane Dieuliis contributed a case study on lessons from public health communication. Page ii From Control to Influence: Cognition in the Grey Zone TABLE OF CONTENTS Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................................................................................................III LIST OF FIGURES .............................................................................................................................................. V LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................................................... V LIST OF BOXES ................................................................................................................................................. V EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................. VII CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................ 1 What is the Grey Zone, and what isn’t it? ..................................................................................................... 1 Strategy in the grey zone: the art of creating influence ................................................................................ 3 Five multiples of the grey zone ...................................................................................................................... 4 Overview of this report.................................................................................................................................. 6 PART I PRINCIPLES OF INFLUENCE IN THE GREY ZONE ...................................................................................... 7 CHAPTER 2: AUDIENCES IN THE GREY ZONE................................................................................................. 7 Knowing your audience - Thinking ‘outside-in’ ............................................................................................. 8 Approaches to thinking outside in. ................................................................................................................ 9 Factors shaping audience behaviour ........................................................................................................... 16 Recommendations ....................................................................................................................................... 22 CHAPTER 3: MESSAGES IN THE GREY ZONE ................................................................................................ 23 Fashioning messages ................................................................................................................................... 23 Content of messages ................................................................................................................................... 25 Context of messages .................................................................................................................................... 30 Recommendations ....................................................................................................................................... 31 CHAPTER 4: GREY ZONE MESSENGERS ....................................................................................................... 33 Messenger characteristics ........................................................................................................................... 33 Importance of networks .............................................................................................................................. 34 Finding and developing trusted messengers ............................................................................................... 35 Competition with other actors .................................................................................................................... 38 Recommendations ....................................................................................................................................... 40 Case Study: Dealing with Noise Lessons from Public Health ....................................................................... 42 PART II KEY PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS IN THE GREY ZONE ............................................................................ 45 CHAPTER 5: RISK AND AMBIGUITY ............................................................................................................ 45 Introduction to risk and ambiguity .............................................................................................................. 45 Risk and ambiguity at state and population levels ...................................................................................... 47 Confidence: uncertainty about judgements ................................................................................................ 51 Prospect Theory: risk acts differently for gains and losses? ........................................................................ 52 “Madman theory”: reputations for unpredictability ................................................................................... 52 Case: Iranian management of risk and ambiguity ....................................................................................... 53 Recommendations ....................................................................................................................................... 54 Selected Bibliography .................................................................................................................................. 54 CHAPTER 6: LEGITIMACY, FAIRNESS, HONOUR AND STATUS ..................................................................... 56 Page iii From Control to Influence: Cognition in the Grey Zone Perceived fairness in the Grey Zone ............................................................................................................ 56 Fairness: from “ought” to “is” ..................................................................................................................... 57 Legitimacy .................................................................................................................................................... 62 Status ........................................................................................................................................................... 64 Honour ......................................................................................................................................................... 65 Recommendations ....................................................................................................................................... 66 CHAPTER 7: NORMS AND NORM CHANGE – THE NEURAL PHENOMENON OF “PREDICTION ERROR” ........ 67 Norms are the “rules of the road” ............................................................................................................... 67 Norm Change ............................................................................................................................................... 68 Managing norm change: The neural phenomenon of “prediction error” ................................................... 69 Recommendations ....................................................................................................................................... 71 CHAPTER 8: DETERRENCE AND ESCALATION MANAGEMENT ..................................................................... 72 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 72 The neural phenomenon of “prediction error” ........................................................................................... 73 Controlling escalation involves not just minimising escalatory factors, but also positive accommodative and conciliatory gestures ............................................................................................................................. 73 Recommendations ....................................................................................................................................... 74 PART III CYBER IN THE GREY ZONE ................................................................................................................
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