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A U.S. Agency for International Development Office Or Nutrition Project Managed by the International Science and Technology Institute, Inc (a FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION MONITORING PROJECT'; . A U.S. Agency for International Development Office or Nutrition Project Managed by the International Science and Technology Institute, Inc. (ISTI) A TWO-TIERED EVALUATION OF AFRICARE'S PL480 PROGRAM IN GUINEA-BISSAU: Food Security Impacts of the Monetization Process, and of the Activities of the Tombali Region Rural Associations Supported by the Sale Proceeds CHRISTOPHER TANNER MARCH 1994 The study was funded by the United States Agency for international Development, Bureau for Global Programs, Field Support and Research, Office of Nutrition under the Food Security and Nutrition Monitoring Project (IMPACT) Contract No. DAN-5110-C-00-0013-QO, with Africare, Washington DC and Guinea-Bissau ft- CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I. INTRODUCTION 1 II. BACKGROUND 3 Introduction 3 National Food Supply and Policy 4 Food Security Responses 9 The Present PL480 Program in Guinea-Bissau 11 III. THE FOOD SECURITY IMPACT OF THE MONETIZATION 13 National Level Food Security 13 Disincentive Effects 13 The Food Aid Chain from Africare to Consumer 14 Bissau 15 Provinces 15 Costs and Benefits in the Food Aid Chain 15 Prices and Disincentive Effects 15 From Africare to Wholesaler 16 Intermediaries 17 Household Food Security Impact of Present Monetization 20 Price Impact 20 Dietary Impact 20 Women's Working Tune 21 Income Generation 22 Fuel Costs and Environmental Impact 22 Public Services: Health, Hygiene and Education 22 Efficiency: Hitting the Target 22 IV. THE FOOD SECURITY IMPACT OF THE TOMBALI TSRIP PROJECT 25 Background 25 Staff, Facilities, and Coverage 25 Operational Status 26 Factors Determining Food Security in Tombali 27 Production 27 Employment 28 Market Access and Costs 29 Public Services: Health, Hygiene and Education 30 The Food Security Impact of the TSRIP 32 The Impact of Specific TSRIP Activities 33 V. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 36 Food Security Situation and Issues 36 The Food Security Impact of the Program 37 r Discussion 37 The Rural Credit Scheme 40 The Food Security Initiatives Fund 44 Support to Nutrition Education 45 Final Comment 45 ANNEX ONE: FOOD SECURITY TRAINING AND MONITORING 47 ANNEX TWO: REPORT OF DR ABDU MANE ' 53 (Counterpart, Govt of Guinea-Bissau) Persons, Institutions and Firms Interviewed 65 Bibliography . 71 C/ A TWO-TIERED EVALUATION OF AFRICARE'S PL480 PROGRAM IN GUINEA-BISSAU: Food Security Impacts of the Monetization Process, and of the Activities of the Tombali Region Rural Associations Supported by the Sale Proceeds EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION This evaluation was carried out in March 1994 on behalf of Africare by the United States Agency for International Development, Office of Nutrition's Food Security and Nutrition Monitoring Project (IMPACT), in collaboration with the Office of Food for Peace. Given that a focus on and a strengthening of PVO Title II activities is likely under A.I.D. reorganization, and that a 1993 GAO report recommended that A.I.D. "develop and systematically apply methodologies and performance indicators to monitor and evaluate the impacts of food aid programs on food security" and "direct that missions and PVOs collect the data necessary for such evaluations", 1 the opportunity for IMPACT to collaborate with Africare in the design of a methodology for defining, monitoring, and evaluating the linkages between Africare's program objectives and food security was timely and useful. The evaluation thus had a dual purpose: to incorporate food security objectives more explicitly into the Africare Guinea-Bissau program; and to contribute to the global assessment and the development of appropriate monitoring systems for evaluating the future food security impact of US food aid funded programs. Africare has been implementing a PL480 Title II program in Guinea-Bissau since 1991. Wheat flour and vegetable oil are imported and monetized by Africare through direct sales to local traders. Local currency funds generated are then used to support small rural producer Associations in the southern region of Tombali, through the Tombali Sustainable Rural Initiatives Project (TSRIP). Food security is fragile in Guinea-Bissau, which has a very high under-five mortality rate of 250 per 1000 live births and a low birthweight rate of 18%, indicating serious malnutrition among women. General Conclusions Earlier evaluations of the Africare Title II program in Guinea-Bissau stressed the positive impact on national hard currency reserves and liquidity, and the sound organizational basis for sustainable rural development created through the Tombali Sustainable Rural Initiatives Project (TSRIP). The evaluations recommended extending both program components until 1998, and funding an expanded Tombali project through increased PL480 imports. 'General Accounting Office, July 1993. Food Aid: Management Improvements are Needed to Achieve Program Objectives, p. 6. i These recommendations are endorsed here, although it is clear that the food security impact of the project has been uneven. This is not surprising, given that the project was not conceived with food security objectives in mind. Nevertheless, evaluating the food security impact of the Africare program is a valuable exercise, and has resulted in recommendations for improving project design in order to achieve food security goals in a future phase. Monetization of Title II commodities has had a generally positive impact, and it is notable not only that PL480 food is having an important price stabilizing effect, but that it is also reaching right down to the poorest households at the end of marketing chains. It is, however, difficult to attribute real improvements in food security in Tombali to the TSRIP. Other factors are probably responsible: structural adjustment reforms, new roads, and the fact that many TSSlP-assisted Associations predate Africare's involvement. A solid foundation has been established for an expanded small scale rural credit scheme. The Africare program has also established an excellent base for genuine local level development supported by credit and investment funds created by the sale proceeds of the monetization. Adopting a wider view of food security, which incorporates non-food elements such as sanitation, road access, and education, will allow future project activities to have greater food security impact. The focus of future activities should be on unblocking constraints to improved productivity and greater income diversity based on existing farm and food processing strategies. With measures to strengthen the impact and benefits of credit assistance, not only can significant food security improvements be achieved for assisted populations, but small surpluses and savings can be generated for reinvestment and future growth out of poverty. National Level Food Security Underlying socio-economic processes are important determinants of longer-term food security in guinea-Bissau. These include: • a high population growth rate (2.6%) which, in spite of the notable rural exodus and urbanization now underway, is resulting in a growing rural population in absolute terms; • climatic change (a declining rainfall trend); • land enclosures by external (non-village) interests; • urban growth without accompanying increases in employment opportunities; • price inflation related to structural adjustment reforms (SAP); • an increasing workload for women as men leave to find work (in both rural and urban households). 11 The net effect of these processes is an intensification of agriculture on a diminishing resource base, with clear implications for rural household food security over the longer term as yields and farm based incomes decline. The same processes will reduce marketed national production in support of growing urban populations now dependent upon purchased food supplies, which will increasingly have to be provided by imported commodities. Yet Guinea-Bissau is still a fertile country with the resources it needs to feed its population. The food security issue therefore hinges around ensuring that poor households gain adequate access to basic foods through market and other direct distribution mechanisms, while initiating measures to counter the negative effects of agricultural intensification (raising yields and labor productivity) and supporting measures to improve land use and natural resource management. This evaluation of the Africare program, therefore, looks at food security impact at two complementary levels: first, ensuring adequate entitlement to food for poor households over the shorter term, while second, addressing the longer term concerns of food security which include the alleviation of poverty and measures to tackle the underlying causes listed above. National Food Security Policy This evaluation is also set in the broader context of Government of Guinea-Bissau (GOGB) food security policy. A review of current policy reveals how it focuses on a narrowly conceived supply-side view of food security, based only on cereals availability (principally rice, which is the main staple of most households). Policy has been preoccupied with raising national rice production and achieving national self-sufficiency, but has lately been modified to encompass food self-reliance based on a combination of national production and a stronger import capacity. This more balanced view gives great emphasis to new private sector development which can boost exports and underwrite national food import capacity. A cereals analysis shows the country moving towards national level food security in supply-side
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