Limerick Northern Distributor Road Project Phase 2

Lisnagry – Annacotty Action Group Submission May 2012

Limerick Northern Distributor Road Project Phase 2 Lisnagry-Annacotty Action Group

Document Control

Document Number 121-151 –R1

Revision Date Prepared Checked Approved

R0 (1st issue) 6.03.12 E McKendrick D Leahy E McKendrick

R1 (2nd issue) 9.05.12 EMcKendrick D Leahy E McKendrick

Approved for Issue by:

Emma McKendrick BEng CEng MICE MIEI MCIWEM

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Limerick Northern Distributor Road Project Phase 2 Lisnagry-Annacotty Action Group

Table of Contents Executive Summary...... 4 1.0 Introduction ...... 6 2.0 Review of Information Made Available to the Public ...... 7 2.1 Constraints Study Report...... 7 2.2 Preliminary Options Assessment / Project Appraisal of Route Options...... 7 2.3 Commentary on the Information Reviewed ...... 8 2.3.1 Need for the Scheme ...... 8 2.3.2 Route Selections and Objectives ...... 8 2.3.3 Justification for the Distributor Road...... 9 3.0 Consideration of Environmental Impacts ...... 10 3.1 Noise ...... 10 3.2 Air Quality...... 10 3.3 Soils & Geology, Hydrogeology...... 11 3.4 The Lower River Shannon –(cSAC); Site Code 002165 ...... 11 3.5 Flood Risk Management ...... 12 3.5.1 CFRAMS ...... 12 3.5.2 The Planning System & Flood Risk Management Guidelines...... 13 3.5.3 Strategic Flood Risk Assessment...... 15 3.5.4 Relevance of the Planning Flood Planning system & Flood Risk Management Guidelines (2009) to the Emerging Preferred Route ...... 16 3.5.5 Flood Mitigation Measures ...... 16 3.5.6 Clare County Development Plan 2011–2017, Chapter 9 Environmental ...... 16 3.5.7 Relevance of the Clare Co Co Development Plan to the Emerging Preferred Route ...... 18 3.5.8 Limerick County Development Plan 2010-2014...... 18 3.5.9 Pallasgreen Zinc Mine ...... 20 3.5.10 Historic Flood Events / Extents...... 20 Flooding on the River Shannon November 2009 ...... 20 Flooding on the River Mulcair ...... 21 General Impacts of Flooding on the Mountshannon Road ...... 21 3.5.11 Summary of the Impacts of Flooding...... 21 4.0 Economy ...... 22 4.1 Limerick – Clare Tunnel ...... 22 4.2 Killaloe Bypass, Shannon Bridge Crossing and R494 Improvement...... 23 4.3 Comparison of Route Corridor Options in Terms of Construction Costs ...... 24 4.3.1 Economic Analysis ...... 24 4.4 Summary of Economic Considerations ...... 26 5.0 Safety...... 27 6.0 Accessibility and Social Inclusion ...... 27

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Limerick Northern Distributor Road Project Phase 2 Lisnagry-Annacotty Action Group 7.0 Integration...... 28

8.0 Transport Modeling...... 28 8.1.1 Data Collection...... 28 8.1.2 Transport Model...... 28 8.1.3 Model Forecasting...... 28 9.0 Project Appraisal Balance Sheet ...... 29 9.1 Environmental Impacts of the Emerging Preferred Route Corridor ...... 29 9.2 Safety Impacts ...... 30 9.3 Economy ...... 30 9.4 Accessibility and Social Inclusion ...... 30 9.5 Integration ...... 30 9.6 Outcome of PABS...... 30

Appendix A Information in the Public Domain Public Consultation Documentation Mid-West Regional Planning Guidelines 2010 - 2022

Appendix B Drawing 121-151-003 Flood Extents Mapping (based on 2009 Flood) Drawing 121-151-004 Photographs of Flooding Route Map 01

Appendix C Route Proposed in the Fitzgerald Report for the Northern Distributor Road

Appendix D GSI Mapping – Bedrock Faults Ground Water Report Ground Water Bodies GSI National Draft Bedrock Aquifer Map GSI National Draft Generalised Bedrock Map GSI National Draft Gravel Aquifer Map GSI National Vulnerability Map GSI subsoil Data

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Limerick Northern Distributor Road Project Phase 2 Lisnagry-Annacotty Action Group

Executive Summary The Lisnagry-Annacotty Action Group engaged the services of PUNCH Consulting Engineers to prepare a written submission in relation to the Emerging Preferred Route Corridor for the Limerick Northern Distributor Road Phase 2 on their behalf. Much of the information included in the submission was compiled by members of the Action Group.

The submission primarily relates to the Emerging Preferred Route Corridor from where it crosses the Shannon River to its termination at Docking Point E on the Dublin Road, though an opinion on the need, economic viability and justification for the scheme is also included.

From a review of the Constraints Study report and other information provided to the Public it is apparent that:

• The Need for the scheme is largely based on documentation prepared pre 2008. The relevance of these documents to 2012 has not been tested or reviewed. • No consideration has been given to the impact of the Limerick – Clare Tunnel. The Limerick - Clare Tunnel now provides a link between the M7 and the N18 (Annacotty to Coonagh) and as such much of the objective of the Limerick Northern Distributor Road has been already met. • No consideration has been given to the cost to the exchequer in compensation payments to Direct Route, arising from under utilization of the Limerick - Clare Tunnel which will be exacerbated by the provision of a toll free alternative public road. • No consideration has been given to the fact that traffic levels within the city have reduced in recent years, - Traffic counts PUNCH have undertaken in recent times, would suggest that the traffic flows in Limerick today are more akin to those in 2003 - and that the population of the mid-west region between 2006 and 2011 is known to have grown by a mere 5%. • No consideration has been given to the fact that the Killaloe Bypass will provide a further new crossing over the Shannon (linking Clare to Limerick/ North Tipp). • No consideration has been given to the economical un-viability of constructing the route through circa 1.75km of flood plain where the last extensive flooding occurred in 2009. It is estimated that the cost of constructing through the flood plain will increase the construction cost by a multiple of four. Significantly, the Emerging Preferred Route option, because of its extra distance will; • entail very sizeable additional construction expenditure • result in additional travel time and an unnecessary increase in carbon emissions • increase existing congestion at the proposed docking point. • The land associated with Route C1 in Co. Limerick appears to have been excluded from the Constraints Study Report. • No consideration has been given to the Pallasgreen Zinc Mine which has the potential to increase flows in the Mulcair River. • No consideration has been given to the existing infrastructure (including bridge crossings) within the vicinity of the University and and its associated knowledge-based industrial zone. The selection of the Emerging Preferred Route Corridor for the Limerick Northern Distributor Phase 2 is considered to be premature for the following reasons: • The Catchment Based Flood Risk Management Study (CFRAM) for the watercourses included within the study area is yet to be completed. • No Strategic Flood Risk Assessment (SFRA) appears to have been undertaken to inform selection of a preferred route. • Funding has not yet been secured for the Scheme and the Government is not in a position to identify whether the road will proceed. Minister Leo Varadkar, stated on 16.02.12 that “it is unlikely the scheme will progress any further than route selection for some time”. In the interim, lands will be unnecessarily sterilised and communities affected by the proposal will be left in limbo. The value of properties / farms will be significantly reduced and property owners affected will be unable to sell their properties should they so wish. • The Lower River Shannon candidate Special Area of Conservation (cSAC) is yet to be assessed in the level of detail required to inform selection of a preferred route.

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Limerick Northern Distributor Road Project Phase 2 Lisnagry-Annacotty Action Group

Insufficient information has been provided to the public to assess/ understand the rationale behind why the particular route has emerged as the preferred route. Specifically, no information on the Route Selection Process has been provided, either in terms of the Preliminary Options Assessment or the Project Appraisal of Route Options.

A primary objective for the scheme is based upon the need to “enhance access to the University of Limerick and its associated knowledge based industrial zone”. Based on this objective, the Emerging Preferred Route Corridor is questioned as the docking point selected is furthest east of all of the options. Both Route C1 and Route D1 better meet the objective of enhancing access to the University of Limerick and its associated knowledge-based industrial zone.

As there are lands available that at are at lower risk of flooding, the Emerging Preferred Route does not pass the Box 4.1 Justification Test within The “Planning System and Flood Risk Management” Guidelines, published by the Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government.

It is apparent that site specific flood risk assessments were not undertaken as part of the Route Selection process and as such it is unclear what necessary measures must be taken to address the requirements of the Justification Test for Development Management (Box 5.1) as stated in The “Planning System and Flood Risk Management” Guidelines. In particular the Guidelines state:-

• “The development proposal will not increase flood risk elsewhere and, if practicable, will reduce overall flood risk; • The development proposal includes measures to minimise flood risk to people, property, the economy and the environment as far as reasonably possible; • The development proposed includes measures to ensure that residual risks to the area and/or development can be managed to an acceptable level as regards the adequacy of existing flood protection measures or the design, implementation and funding of any future flood risk management.”

The Distributor Road if built in this location will impact dramatically on the intrinsic character of the landscape and the quality of life experienced by the community. The road will act as a barrier to community movement and will result in changes in water quality and levels, air quality, noise and light levels. In addition to the indirect effects on land use (air, noise, visual etc), the construction and presence of a road in this location will result in both temporary and permanent effects on land use through the necessary land-take, the severance of the community and the reduction in the viability of a number of existing farms,. Therefore rather than creating accessibility and integration, it will have the reverse impact on the community. The impact on existing communities could be mitigated if either Routes C1 or D1 were chosen. In the context of competing national priorities, it is difficult to comprehend how the proposed Limerick Northern Distributor Road can take precedence over the crucial and urgently required Limerick / Cork motorway which is now being shelved.

In conclusion it is strongly recommended that any decision with regard to the route of the second phase of the Northern distributor Road be deferred until such time as: • The Need for the scheme is reassessed to consider the following: • The impact of the Limerick – Clare Tunnel and the future Killaloe Bypass • Review of current traffic volumes within Limerick & its environs • The existing infrastructure (including bridge crossings) within the vicinity of the University and and its associated knowledge-based industrial zone • The potential impact of the Pallasgreen Zinc Mine on the Mulcair River. • The funding mechanism for the route becomes clearer • The findings of both the CFRAMS and a SFRA are made available • Site Specific Flood Risk Assessments have been completed. • An Appropriate Assessment and/or Environmental Impact Assessment have been undertaken. In particular, the assessments need to address the cSAC and the conservation value of the designated species along each of the routes together with the hydrogeological /geological impacts of the the Emerging Preferred Route, which coincides with a regionally important aquifer (karstified) and a locally important aquifer.

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Limerick Northern Distributor Road Project Phase 2 Lisnagry-Annacotty Action Group

1.0 Introduction

The Lisnagry-Annacotty Action Group engaged the services of PUNCH Consulting Engineers to prepare a written submission in relation to the Emerging Preferred Route Corridor for the Limerick Northern Distributor Road Phase 2 on their behalf. Much of the information included in the submission was compiled by members of the Action Group.

The submission primarily relates to the Emerging Preferred Route Corridor from where it crosses the Shannon River to its termination at Docking Point E on the Dublin Road, though an opinion on the need, economic viability and justification for the scheme are also included.

The foreword to The NRA Project Appraisal Guidelines state that the Guidelines are

“… intended to guide road designers and the decision makers through the process of ensuring that the best choices are made and the best value for money is obtained on all national road projects. In short - The right project in the right place at the right time.”

The purpose of this submission is to demonstrate why, having reviewed the documentation made available to the Public, none of the above criteria have been met in relation to the Emerging Preferred Route Corridor for the Limerick Northern Distributor Road Phase 2.

Chapter 2 of the submission includes a review of the information made available to the public and an analysis of the “Need” for the scheme. The Chapter also considers whether the objectives of the scheme have been met and whether justification for a new Distributor Road has been demonstrated.

Chapter 3 gives consideration to the general Environmental Impacts and the assessment of the Management of Flood Risk.

Chapter 4 looks at the viability of Phase 2 of the Northern Distributor Road in terms of both the Cost Benefit Analysis and also of the construction costs of the 2.9 km section of road between the Shannon River Crossing and Docking Point E.

Chapters 5 to 7 respectively consider Safety, Accessibility and Social Inclusion, and Integration.

In addition, the submission considers the importance of Traffic Modelling in Chapter 8 and reviews the likely findings of a Project Appraisal Balance Sheet in Chapter 9.

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Limerick Northern Distributor Road Project Phase 2 Lisnagry-Annacotty Action Group

2.0 Review of Information Made Available to the Public

2.1 Constraints Study Report The NRA 2010 Project Management Guidelines describe in detail the six phases associated with the delivery of a new roads project from inception to completion. While the NRA Project Management Guidelines are the main guidance document, a number of other documents are to be used in conjunction with the documents referred to below: • NRA Project Appraisal Guidelines • NRA Cost Management Manual • NRA Construction Contract Administration Manual • NRA Environmental Assessment & Construction Guidelines • NRA Chargeability of Expenditure to National Road Grants 2010 The phases identified in the NRA 2010 Project Management Guidelines are as described below: Phase 1 Scheme Concept & Feasibility Studies Phase 2: Route Selection 1. Review of Phase 1 findings and deliverables 2. Constraints Study 3. Route Selection Process • Stage 1 - Preliminary Options Assessment Develop a number of feasible route options (typically 6 or more and including ‘Do- Nothing’ and ‘Do-Minimum’ alternatives) and carry out a Preliminary Options Assessment using a Framework Matrix (comprising the assessment criteria of Engineering, Economy and Environment). • Stage 2 - Project Appraisal of Route Options Carry out a Project Appraisal of these routes using the Project Appraisal Matrix (comprising the 5 Common Appraisal Criteria of Economy, Safety, Environment, Accessibility & Social Inclusion and Integration). • Stage 3 - Selection of a Preferred Route Corridor Following this, prepare a Project Appraisal Balance Sheet (PABS) for the Preferred Route as described in the NRA Project Appraisal Guidelines. Conduct a walkover of the Preferred Route Corridor and prepare a Route Selection Report Phase 3: Design Phase 4 Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) /Environmental Assessment Report (EAR) & The Statutory Processes Phase 5 Advance Works & Construction Documents Preparation, Tender & Award Phase 6 Construction & Implementation The purpose of a Constraints Study is to identify the nature and extent of significant constraints within a defined Study Area. The Constraints Study prepared for the Limerick Northern Distributor Road both maps and documents the constraints. However, the Constraints Study fails to convince the reader of either the need for the scheme or the justification of the scheme. In addition the Constraints Study area identified in the Constraints Study report is different to that presented to the public and published in the Route Options Brochure of June 2011.

2.2 Preliminary Options Assessment / Project Appraisal of Route Options Neither the Preliminary Options Assessment nor the Project Appraisal of Route Options were made available for review therefore it is unclear how the Emerging Preferred Route Corridor has been selected or how it best meets the objectives of the scheme.

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Limerick Northern Distributor Road Project Phase 2 Lisnagry-Annacotty Action Group

2.3 Commentary on the Information Reviewed

2.3.1 Need for the Scheme The “Need for Phase 2 Limerick Northern Distributor Road” of the Northern Distributor Road is described in both the Public Consultation Document and in the Constraints Study Report. The Constraints Study Report discusses the various documents which have identified the “Need for Phase 2 of the Limerick Northern Distributor Road”. These include The Limerick Planning, Land Use and Transportation Study‟(PLUTS) (1999), the Fitzgerald Report (2007), the National Spatial Strategy (2002- 2020), the National Development Plan (2007-2013) and the Mid-West Regional Planning Guidelines (2010 – 2012). With the exception of the Mid-West Regional Planning Guidelines, all of the documents listed above were prepared when Ireland’s economy was growing unsustainably. Given that traffic levels within the city have visibly reduced and the population of the mid-west region between 2006 and 2011 is known to have grown by a mere 5%, the relevance of documents prepared pre 2008 should have been tested or reviewed. No consideration has been given to the impact of the New Limerick-Clare Tunnel on the so called “Need” for the Scheme. The Constraints Study Report includes an extract from Section 6.1 of the Mid-West Regional Planning Guidelines 2010 – 2012 stating: “the Limerick Northern Distributor Road is a critical route linking the N7 and N18 to protect the City Centre, to enhance access to Shannon International Airport and its related industrial zone from eastern parts of the country, and to enhance access to the University of Limerick and its associated knowledge based industrial zone.”

The Constraints Study Report does not give any consideration to the fact the Limerick-Clare Tunnel now provides a link between the M7 and the N18 (Annacotty to Coonagh) and much of the objective of the Limerick Northern Distributor Road has been already met. In particular, no consideration has been given to the cost to the exchequer in compensation payments to Direct Route (c€4.45M pa X 23 Years), arising from under utilization of the Limerick – Clare Tunnel which will be exacerbated by the provision of a toll free alternative public road (refer also to Section 5.1 below).

The Fitzgerald Report (2007) states:- “A new road is currently planned to the north of the city linking the N7 to the Coonagh roundabout. The planned link road from the Coonagh roundabout to the Moyross Interchange should be ‘frontloaded’ and progressed as a matter of urgency. This will open up potential for mixed-use development in lands in, and adjacent to, Moyross and attract investment, allow for improved transport links, and facilitate greater linkage between the local community and other parts of the city.”

This objective will be met in its entirety by Phase 1 of the Limerick Northern Distributor Road

We do not believe that the “Need” for the Scheme has been adequately demonstrated.

2.3.2 Route Selections and Objectives With reference to the considerations noted above, the primary relevant “Need” for the scheme seems to be based upon:

“the Limerick Northern Distributor Road is a critical route linking the N7 and N18 to protect the City Centre, to enhance access to Shannon International Airport and its related industrial zone from eastern parts of the country, and to enhance access to the University of Limerick and its associated knowledge based industrial zone.”

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Limerick Northern Distributor Road Project Phase 2 Lisnagry-Annacotty Action Group

Based on the above objective, the Emerging Preferred Route Corridor is questioned as the docking point is furthest east of all of the options. Both Route C1 and Route D1 better meet the objective of enhancing access to the University of Limerick and its associated knowledge-based industrial zone. The constraints study states that the proposed development is in accordance with the Clare County Development Plan (2005-2011) the Limerick City Development Plan (2004-2010), the Limerick County Development Plan (2005-2011) and the Castletroy Local Area Plan (2009-2016). This is misleading as neither the Limerick County Development Plan nor the relevant local area plans (Castleconnell & Castletroy) make any specific mention of the Limerick Northern Distributor Road. In addition, the Clare County Council Development Plan only appears to talk of the road in the context of the University of Limerick. The Limerick County Council Zoning Map identifies a safeguard route. The route indicated commences at Knockalisheen Road and terminates at the roundabout on Plassey Road in the National Technological Park. This route would similarly better meet the above objective and is consistent with the Fitzgerald Report (2007). With reference to the Fitzgerald Report the route proposed linked Coonagh, Parteen and Moyross with the Technology Park and UL (see attached map in Appendix C). However the new proposed route has moved the road away from UL and the Technology Park. Moving the road further away from the City, UL and the Technology Park will result in very sizeable additional construction expenditure, unnecessary additional travel time, unnecessary increase in carbon emissions and an increase in existing congestion at the proposed docking point.

The Emerging Preferred Route Corridor does not best meet the Objectives of the Scheme.

2.3.3 Justification for the Distributor Road Having reviewed all of the documentation made available during the Public Consultation process the justification for spending hundreds of millions of scarce exchequer finance on the proposed Limerick Northern Distributor road either now, or in the foreseeable future, remains unclear.

The viability of building a new bridge across the River Shannon now or in the foreseeable future also remains unclear, given that the Government appears committed to providing a new river crossing linking Ballina and Killaloe. This scheme is at CPO stage.

Planning for more high-capacity roads around Limerick City (involving major works in County Clare and County Limerick) when the existing southern ring road and Limerick tunnel is not fully utilised appears not to have been adequately assessed, if at all.

In the Mid West Strategic Plan it appears that traffic volumes are interpolations based on the period 1996-2006, a time when Ireland underwent dramatic change and excessive developments in many areas. While it is usual to use the traffic growth forecasts produced by the NRA we believe they may result in artificially high projections as they do not take into account the downturn in the economy over the last number of years. Therefore, while traffic growth is being forecast, in reality traffic reduction is and has taken place since circa 2008. Traffic counts PUNCH have undertaken in recent times, would suggest that the traffic flows in Limerick today are more akin to those in 2003. Therefore even if budgetary constraints did not exist the justification in terms of traffic volumes is not adequately assessed.

If access from south Co. Clare to the University of Limerick is a concern, there is an existing vehicular bridge linking the North and South campuses. The upgrading of the “existing road network, including Larkin’s Cross, the Burlington Road and Garraun Road, to facilitate improved vehicular access to the Clare campus in the short to medium term, having regard to available capacities” (Clare Co. Dev. Plan P. 172) would be more financially viable.

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Limerick Northern Distributor Road Project Phase 2 Lisnagry-Annacotty Action Group

3.0 Consideration of Environmental Impacts The National Roads Project Management Guidelines (NRPMG) state that the Environmental Appraisal shall have regard to the impact of each route option under the principal headings of Air Quality, Noise & Vibration, Landscape, Flora & Fauna, Climate, Waste, Soils & Geology, Hydrogeology, Archaeology & Cultural Heritage, Non-Agricultural Properties and Agriculture. The Environmental Appraisal shall also have regard to the NRA Environmental Assessment & Construction Guidelines. An assessment of the Architectural Heritage should be undertaken in accordance with the “Guidelines for the Assessment of Architectural Heritage Impacts of National Road Schemes”.

The Distributor Road, if built in this location, would impact on the intrinsic character of the landscape and the quality of life experienced by the community. The road will act as a barrier to community movement and will result in changes in water quality and levels, air quality, noise and light levels. In addition, to the indirect effects on land use (air, noise, visual etc), the construction and presence of a road in this location will result in both temporary and permanent effects on land use through the necessary land-take, the severance of the community, the reduction in the viability of a number of existing farms and the loss of family homes.

3.1 Noise Road traffic is already a major source of noise pollution. With existing conditions in Lisnagry and Annacotty, the local community has already experienced an increase in noise levels after the M7 and southern ring road developments were completed. The proposed Limerick Northern Distributor Road would further increase the noise pollution in the area. While it is possible to locally limit the noise exposure, the acoustic energy will have to be dissipated.

The rural nature of the properties in the Lisnagry/Annacotty Area means that they will be sensitive to minor increases in background noise levels. Chapter 12 of the Constraints study notes “it is necessary to consider the location of the sensitive noise receptors so that throughout the Route Selection process the requirement to avoid them where feasible and minimise the impact on them in the second can be considered and weighted. This is done by routing of potential route corridors in areas where, in the first instance there are no sensitive receptors. The second option available is to use the existing topography and other natural features to hide the route from the sensitive receptors”. As noted in the Constraints Study report the study area is dominated by the relatively flat Lower River Shannon floodplains and as such the existing topography and natural features will provide limited screening in the context of the Emerging Proposed Route.

The Emerging Preferred Route Corridor is questioned as either Route C1 or Route D1 would have less impact on sensitive receptors.

3.2 Air Quality

The Lisnagry/Annacotty Community believe that road traffic is already a source of reduced air quality, resulting from the M7 and southern ring road developments. The proposed Limerick Northern Distributor Road would further reduce air quality in the area.

The Constraints Study Report notes that “an exercise has been undertaken to identify sensitive receptors within the Study Area, these include the many churches, schools and community facilities. In the majority of instances these sensitive receptors are located in proximity to urban areas or residential clusters and thereby in locations which would by their nature be difficult to locate a route corridor”. The Emerging Preferred Route Corridor is questioned as either Route C1 or D1 would have less impact on sensitive receptors.

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Limerick Northern Distributor Road Project Phase 2 Lisnagry-Annacotty Action Group

3.3 Soils & Geology, Hydrogeology The Emerging Preferred Route in the vicinity of Lisnagry/Annacotty is noted to coincide with a regionally important aquifer (karstified) and a locally important aquifer (bedrock which generally moderately productive). Reference should be made to the GSI Maps included in Appendix C. The Conceptual Model contained in Draft 2 of the Limerick City East GWB Description dated 5th January 2004, also included in Appendix C notes, the following:

• “The groundwater body is bounded to the north by the River Shannon, to the east by the contact with the karstified Pure Unbedded Limestone of Castleconnell GWB, to the SE and south by the karstified Pure Unbedded Limestone of the Ballyneety GWB, and by a surface water catchment boundary which is an implied groundwater divide in the west. The terrain is gently undulating over much of the GWB, with small hills occurring in the north and the SW. • Groundwater flow occurs along fractures, joints and faults in the limestone and volcanic rocks. There is likely to be an epikarstic layer at the top of the limestone, which acts to redistribute recharge in the subsurface and, in high water table conditions, is a very high transmissivity layer. The aquifers have low storativity. • Recharge occurs diffusely through the subsoils and at outcrop. Potential recharge may be rejected in areas where the water table is very close to the surface. Recharge will be inhibited by urban made ground in the north of the GWB.” Construction of a Distributor Road along the Emerging Preferred Route Corridor is therefore likely to have a negative impact on not only the potential recharge of the aquifer but also the water quality of the aquifer. In addition, with reference to the vulnerability map in Appendix C it is apparent that the route passes through a large area classified as having a high vulnerability and potentially localised areas classified as having extreme vulnerability and karst.

It is considered that either Route C1 or Route D1 would have a less significant impact on the existing Hydrogeology / Geology

Pollution of ground water and/or water courses or increased sediment loads are also of concern, though undoubtedly the overriding environmental impact, is the impact on the Flood Plain, as described in detail below in Section 3.5.

3.4 The Lower River Shannon – candidate Special Area of Conservation (cSAC); Site Code 002165 The Lower River Shannon candidate Special Area of Conservation (cSAC), site code 2165, as a whole is very large, occupying a total of 72 138 hectares. The cSACs form part of the EU Natura 2000 Network. The designation reflects the fact that the Lower River Shannon contains habitats of high ecological value and the presence of rare plant and animal species. Due to this designation, all due consideration must be given to reduce the construction and operational impact on the cSAC. It is recognised however, that in crossing the cSAC, all routes will impact to a greater or lesser extent on the cSAC, and that suitable mitigation measures must be provided to balance the effects of these impacts. The feasibility study conducted for the construction of the Shannon Bridge Crossing (Killaloe) states that the Annex I priority habitat, Alluvial forests, accounts for ≤1% cover of the total cSAC. Though legal backing for the cSACs is provided by EU Directive on the Conservation of Natural Habitats and of Wild Flora and Fauna (92/43/EEC; commonly known as the ‘Habitats Directive’) and transposed into Irish law by the European Communities (Natural Habitats) Regulations, 1997; S.I. No. 94 of 1997, the conservation value of the Alluvial forests at each of these route options is unclear. The land at route option D1 (blue route) adjacent to the River Shannon in the National Technological Park was farmed up

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Limerick Northern Distributor Road Project Phase 2 Lisnagry-Annacotty Action Group to approximately 20 years ago, and a walk of the area shows the area is ‘scrub’ rather than forested. An Environmental Impact Statement is critical to assess the conservation value of the site.

In order to progress with any river crossing in a cSAC, Article 6 (3) of the ‘Habitats Directive’ must be followed. Article 6 (3) of directive 92/43/EEC (the 'Habitats Directive') requires that any plan or project not directly connected with or necessary to the management of a Natura 2000 site but likely to have a significant effect thereon, either individually or in combination with other plans or projects, be subject to an appropriate assessment of its implications for the site in view of the site's conservation objectives. Though the legal status of the Lower Shannon cSAC is clear, a comprehensive Environmental Impact Statement of the route options is necessary to establish the conservation value of the priority habitat and species within. This should be undertaken before a preferred route is chosen. Given that ALL routes considered by the Constraints Study have the potential to impact on the cSAC it is considered that route selection is premature until more in-depth studies are completed by suitably qualified persons. In particular, through the preparation of an Appropriate Assessment / Environmental Impact Assessment.

It is considered that route selection of the Northern Distributor Road is premature until the cSAC is assessed in the Appropriate Level of Detail

3.5 Flood Risk Management

3.5.1 CFRAMS It is national flood policy that flood risk be managed in a catchment-based manner through a framework of Catchment Flood Risk Management Plans (CFRMPs). The CFRAM Studies involve the following work: - • Collection and analysis of data relevant to flooding within the Study Area • Identification, condition and performance assessment, of flood defence assets • Managing and / or undertaking any surveys necessary to provide the services required (such as topographical, channel, structural and defence asset surveys) • Analysis of the hydrology of the Study Area, including the development of an appropriate hydrological model for scenario impact analysis -Hydraulic analysis (including modelling) of the relevant waterbody and mapping of the flood hazard and risk zones • Determination of risks to human health, the environment, cultural heritage and the economy - Determination of flood risk management objectives for the Study Area as a whole, with particular emphasis on the areas of potentially significant or moderate risk, and the development and appraisal of possible flood risk management measures to achieve the defined objectives • Determination of an appropriate flood risk management strategy for the Study Area • Preparation of a Flood Risk Management Plan for the Study Area, and of reports on the findings of the Project The Office of Public Works are working in partnership with their consultants Jacobs, Local Authorities and other stakeholders to deliver the CFRAM Study for the Shannon River Basin District (RBD). Work on the study started in January 2011 and will be completed by December 2015. At an initial stage the CFRAMS will review the operating regulations and procedures of the control structures and dams on the River Shannon. In December 2013 the Flood Maps will be published. The Catchment Flood Risk Management Plans (FRMPs) will be published in December 2015. The plans will define the levels of existing and future flood risk in the Shannon RBD area and set out how this will be managed both now and into the future. The Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment (PFRA) prepared by Jacobs notes that the “Mulcair River also flows into the Shannon just above the channel restriction. This river is a fast-flowing river and during

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Limerick Northern Distributor Road Project Phase 2 Lisnagry-Annacotty Action Group flood times when it meets the Shannon flood water, the volume of water is such that it has nowhere to go, so it backs up to Springfield and Illaunyregan”. It is contested therefore that until the findings of the CFRAMs are made available route selection of the Northern distributor route is premature.

3.5.2 The Planning System & Flood Risk Management Guidelines In September 2008 “The Planning System and Flood Risk Management” Guidelines were published by the Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government in Draft format. In November 2009 the adopted version of the document was published. The Flood Risk Management Guidelines give guidance on flood risk and development. The guidelines recommend a precautionary approach when considering flood risk management in the planning system. The Key principles are as follows: 1. Avoid development in areas at risk of flooding; 2. If this is not possible, consider substituting a land use that is less vulnerable to flooding, and; 3. Only when both avoidance and substitution cannot take place should consideration be given to mitigation and management of risks.

It is clear that the Emerging Preferred Route Corridor as proposed within Co. Limerick contravenes these Guidelines

Therefore the core principle of the guidelines is to adopt a risk based sequential approach to managing flood risk and to avoid development in areas that are at risk. The Emerging Preferred Route Corridor is at high risk in Co. Limerick. The sequential approach is based on the identification of flood zones for river and coastal flooding. The guidelines include definitions of Flood zones A, B and C as noted below. It should be noted that these do not take into account the presence of flood defences, as there remain risks of overtopping and breach of the defences. Zone A (high probability of flooding) is for lands where the probability of flooding is greatest (greater than 1% or the 1 in 100 for river flooding and 0.5% or 1 in 200 for coastal flooding). Significant information is readily available regarding flood events in Co. Limerick of both the Mulcair River and the Shannon River at the location of the Emerging Preferred Route Corridor. All of which would indicate that the probability of flooding is such that the lands are located within Flood Zone A. As noted in the Guidelines: “most types of development would be considered inappropriate in this zone. Development in this zone should be avoided and/or only considered in exceptional circumstances, such as in city and town centres, or in the case of essential infrastructure that cannot be located elsewhere, and where the Justification Test has been applied”. Zone B (moderate probability of flooding) refers to lands where the probability of flooding is moderate (between 0.1% and 1% for river flooding and between 0.1% and 0.5% for coastal flooding) Zone C (low probability of flooding) refers to lands where the probability of flooding is low (less than 0.1% for both rivers an coastal flooding) Once a flood zone has been identified, the guidelines set out the different types of development appropriate to each zone. Table 3.1 of the Planning System and Flood Risk Management Guidelines for Planning Authorities gives a detailed classification of vulnerability of different types of development. Development of primary / essential infrastructure is classed as highly vulnerable development.

Exceptions to the restriction of development due to potential flood risks are provided for through the use of the Justification Test, where the planning need and the sustainable management of flood risk to an acceptable level must be demonstrated. This recognises that there will be a need for future development in existing towns and urban centres that lie within flood risk zones, and that the avoidance of all future development in these areas would be unsustainable.

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Limerick Northern Distributor Road Project Phase 2 Lisnagry-Annacotty Action Group

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Limerick Northern Distributor Road Project Phase 2 Lisnagry-Annacotty Action Group

3.5.3 Strategic Flood Risk Assessment

Strategic Flood risk Assessments (SFRAs) enable Local Authorities to undertake the sequential approach, including the Justification Test, to allocate appropriate sites for development and identify how flood risk can be reduced as part of the development plan process.

The Flood risk management plan arising from the CFRAM programme will normally heavily inform the SFRA. However, the guidelines note that in the absence of a CFRAMs, local authorities may need to commission extensive flood risk assessments, albeit at a strategic level.

Until a SFRA is undertaken, route selection of the Northern Distributor Road is considered premature

See below Justification Tests applicable at both Development Plan level and at Development level

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Limerick Northern Distributor Road Project Phase 2 Lisnagry-Annacotty Action Group

3.5.4 Relevance of the Planning Flood Planning system & Flood Risk Management Guidelines (2009) to the Emerging Preferred Route

Drawing No 121-151-003 included in Appendix B indicates the actual extent of the November 2009 flood.

While in the absence of the CFRAMs or a SFRA it is premature to speculate on the actual flood plain extents, it is clear from this map that all route corridors proposed impact on the existing flood plain. However, based on the available information both Route Option C1 or D1 would have significantly less impact on the Flood Plain as compared to the Emerging Preferred Route Corridor.

Box 4.1 above includes the Justification Test applicable to development plans. Given that there are lands available at lower risk of flooding, the Emerging Preferred Route Corridor would not pass the Justification Test. In addition, it is apparent that site specific flood risk assessments were not undertaken as part of the Route Selection process and therefore it is questionable whether measures are included to ensure that the development Justification Test can be passed.

3.5.5 Flood Mitigation Measures

Box 5.1 above includes the Justification Test for development management. Point 2 seeks justification that the proposal has been subject to an appropriate flood risk assessment that demonstrates:

(i) “The development proposed will not increase flood risk elsewhere and, if practicable, will reduce overall flood risk; (ii) The development proposal includes measures to minimize flood risk to people, property, the economy and the environment as far as reasonably possible; (iii) The development proposed includes measures to ensure that residual risks to the area and/or development can be managed to an acceptable level as regards the adequacy of existing flood protection measures or the design, implementation and funding of any future flood risk management measures and provisions for emergency services access”

In the absence of a Detailed Site Specific Flood Risk Assessment it is unclear how it is proposed to satisfy this objective.

The concern therefore is that lands which have never experienced flooding will now be at increased flood risk. Also, given that the there is a high water table in the area percolation areas associated with individual property septic tanks would be adversely affected by changes in the water table.

3.5.6 Clare County Development Plan 2011–2017, Chapter 9 Environmental Chapter 9 (Environmental) of the Clare County Council Development Plan 2011-2017, notes the following as strategic aims: • “To achieve an integrated and sustainable approach to developing the County, and to strike a balance between development and the prudent management of the environment and natural resources; • To enable the future sustainable development of the County by ensuring that future development is considered and managed against the risk of flooding; • • To minimise the level of flood risk to people, businesses, infrastructure and the environment.”

Information provided to date does not demonstrate how the Emerging Preferred Route will not increase the risk of flooding to people and the Environment

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CDP 9.15 Development Plan Objective: Strategic Flood Risk Assessment

It is an objective of Clare County Council:

“To ensure that proposals for development in areas where there is a risk of flooding, (based on the flood risk maps contained in Volume 2 of the Clare County Development Plan 2011- 2017, or any updated version), shall have regard to the OPW/DoEHLG planning guidelines The Planning System & Flood Risk Management (and Technical Appendices) – Guidelines for Planning Authorities (Nov 2009) and any future OPW flood assessment information, and such proposals must also demonstrate that appropriate mitigation measures can be put in place.”

Section 9.4 of the Development Plan notes:

“The Planning and Development Act, 2000 (as amended) introduced flood risk assessment into the planning process. This was subsequently augmented by the DoEHLG Planning Guidelines, The Planning System & Flood Risk Management (and Technical Appendices) – Guidelines for Planning Authorities (DoEHLG & OPW Nov 2009). The aim of the guidelines is to enable the future sustainable development of areas by ensuring that future development is considered and assessed against the risk of flooding. This will avoid development in areas identified as being at risk of flooding, with the consequent potential damage to property and the economy.”

It is unclear from the current route selection that these guidelines are adhered to

“The Planning Authority will have regard to these guidelines when preparing plans and assessing proposals for future development, including redevelopment, or the extension or intensification of existing uses. The Council will seek to ensure that any construction or reclamation project be required to be proofed to ensure flooding will not be a consequence of the development and that land reclamation will not impact on drainage regimes or hydrology including turloughs.”

The Development Plan is the mechanism through which national and regional policy and the Council’s strategic planning objectives and approach to flood risk will be implemented at local level. Clare County Council has sought to proactively manage flood risk in the County in accordance with DoEHLG Planning Guidelines, by strategically mapping the location of flood hazard in the County based on a fluvial (river) flood mapping and tidal (coastal) flood mapping process and by defining flood hazard in the County by zonal classification.

In addition, a flooding map survey has been carried out by the Council based on technical information, existing available historical data including maps, photos, archives, verbal descriptions and newspaper extracts. The data was collated and allowed the County to be mapped in terms of recent and past flooding events. Volume 2 Maps H1 – H12 of the Development Plan set out the flood risk maps. As noted in section 4.2.2 above, please refer to drawing no 121-151-003 included in Appendix B for flood extents identified.

CDP 914.12 Development Plan Objective: Flood Risk Management It is an objective of Clare County Council:

a) “To be guided by the objectives of and to implement the actions set out in The Planning System and Flood Risk Management (and Technical Appendices) – Guidelines for Planning Authorities (DoEHLG & OPW Nov 2009) and take into account implications of predicted sea level rise in the assessment of proposed developments along the Estuary; b) To ensure that all flood risk management assessments and projects are formulated and developed having regard to the Water Framework Directive and to the Habitats Directive Natura 2000 sites and associated water-sensitive habitats and species;

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Limerick Northern Distributor Road Project Phase 2 Lisnagry-Annacotty Action Group c) To require applications for proposed developments to demonstrate compliance with the Guidelines and carry out flood risk assessment in compliance with such Guidelines.”

3.5.7 Relevance of the Clare Co Co Development Plan to the Emerging Preferred Route It is apparent that the Clare County Council Development plan makes provision for minimizing the level of flood risk to people, businesses, infrastructure and the environment, together with managing against the risk of flooding. The Development Plan makes reference a number of times to The Planning System & Flood Risk Management (and Technical Appendices) – Guidelines for Planning Authorities (DoEHLG & OPW Nov 2009). It even notes that the aim of the guidelines is to enable the future sustainable development of areas by ensuring that future development is considered and assessed against the risk of flooding. Thus avoiding development in areas identified as being at risk of flooding, with the consequent potential damage to property and the economy.

The justification for the Emerging Preferred Route Corridor is questioned as both route options C1 and D1impact to a lesser extent on the flood plain.

3.5.8 Limerick County Development Plan 2010-2014 While the Limerick County Development Plan does not reference the Limerick Northern Distributor Road, the flooding flood management guidelines are relevant. Policy IN P11: Management of Water Resource “It is the policy of the Council to seek to ensure water resources and services are managed and planned, in association with other policies and objectives in this plan, to meet the following goals: a) To protect human health and the environment b) To facilitate the provision of proper water services for domestic and non-domestic requirements c) To support proper planning and sustainable development, including sustainable use of water resources. d) To ensure the danger of flooding risk is averted as far as possible and where flooding is inevitable its consequences minimised.” Policy IN P12: Catchment Management “In seeking the proper development and use of water resources and associated activities the Council will work with relevant authorities to better secure a consistent management approach across river catchments and river basin districts. Particular regard shall be had to the following: a) The Draft Shannon River Basin Management Plan and the South-Western River Basin District Management Plan in their respective areas of coverage. b) The Geological Survey of Ireland (GSI) ground water survey. c) The Heritage Council Lower Shannon Waterway Corridor Study, 2006, and d) The OPW in respect of Flood risk data, assessments, and Flood Risk Management Plans.”

Objective IN O35: Minimise threat and consequences of flooding “It is the objective of the Council to avert, or where this is not possible, to minimise the threat of flooding in new developments and existing built up areas. Priority will be given to the protection of vulnerable uses that would be seriously affected by the consequences of flood events. The Council will have regard to Government Guidelines, ‘The Planning System and Flood Risk Management’ and OPW data and advice in the assessment of all development proposals and any subsequent amendments.”

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Objective IN O36: Manage river catchments and surface water run-off “It is the objective of the Council to assist in the sustainable management of river catchments to reduce both the quantity of water run-off and its speed and unpredictability, allow rivers to take their natural flow, and allow flooding only to occur in lower sensitivity areas.” Objective IN 037: Screening for Flood Risk “It is the objective of the Council to continue to screen for flood risk as part of the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) process.” Objective IN O 38: Flood risk management and development “It is an objective of the Council to ensure that land uses are zoned, and developments allowed where there is minimum flood risk, prioritising the protection of certain land uses particularly vulnerable to the affects of flooding. To this end: a) The sequential approach to zoning and assessment recommended in ‘The Planning System and Flood Risk Management’, DEHLG November 2009 and any subsequent document will be adopted. b) The Council will work with the OPW to ensure up to date data and assessment, and to take a precautionary approach where there are gaps in data. Attention in particular will be given to the records and assessments of past flood events, the position of OPW benefiting lands, and the position of alluvial soils in establishing a preliminary estimate of risk. c) It is an objective of the Council to prepare a Strategic Flood Risk Assessment for relevant areas of County Limerick.” Objective IN O39: To minimise the impact of structures and earthworks on flood plains and river flow. “It is an objective of the Council in general not to permit development of the following types in or across flood plains or river channels unless it can be clearly demonstrated using flood impact assessments, that they would not create or exacerbate risk of flooding in sensitive locations such as: a) construction of embankments, wide bridge piers or similar structures. b) raising of ground levels where this would interfere with natural river flow or currents.” Objective SE O15: Water Quality “Development proposals in the Shannon Estuary Area will be required to have regard to the quality of the water resources in the area. They will be required to demonstrate that they will have no significant adverse consequences for water quality.” Objective SE O16: Flooding and Development “In areas that are at risk of flooding proposed development will have regard to the Planning System and Flood risk Guidelines and any future amendments or revisions to these guidelines” It is apparent that the Limerick County Development plan also makes provision for minimizing the level of flood risk to people, businesses, infrastructure and the environment, together with managing against the risk of flooding. The Development Plan also makes reference a number of times to The Planning System & Flood Risk Management (and Technical Appendices) – Guidelines for Planning Authorities (DoEHLG & OPW Nov 2009). Though Objective IN O39 is also of particular interest, as it aims to minimise the impact of structures and earthworks on flood plains and river flow. As noted above it is an objective of the Council “in general” not to permit development of embankments, wide bridge piers or similar structures or to permit raising of ground levels where this would interfere with natural river flow or currents in or across flood plains or river channels unless it can be clearly demonstrated using flood impact assessments, that they would not create or exacerbate risk of flooding in sensitive locations.

The justification for the Emerging Preferred Route Corridor is questioned again, as both Route options C1 and D1 impact to a lesser extent on the flood plain

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3.5.9 Pallasgreen Zinc Mine Minco Plc is a precious and base metals exploration and development company with silver projects in Mexico and zinc exploration in Ireland. Minco’s 23.6% jointly controlled operation with Xstrata Zinc covers exploration licenses, totaling 294 square kilometers located at Pallasgreen between Limerick and Tipperary. Drilling has resulted in the discovery of four sulphide lenses at Castlegarde, Tobermalug, Caherconlish South and Srahane West.

In July 2011, Minco reported that twenty one drill rigs were currently operating on the Pallasgreen property, all within the Caherconlish area. In the first six months of 2011, to the end of June, 139 holes were drilled or were in progress for a total of 47,000 metres.

Minco also reported that they were not in agreement with their partners Xstrata regarding the programme and budget and particularly to the allocation between infill and exploration drilling.

Xstrata had in 2010 indicated a potential start-up date of 2017 for a mine at Pallasgreen, with an indicative capital cost of US$300 million and with an indicated annual production of 160,000 tonnes of zinc.

For the year 2011, Xstrata proposed a 13 million, budget comprising additional exploration and infill drilling as well as a pre-feasibility study. The pre-feasibility study and related costs is budgeted at about 3 million, while the proposed 10 million drilling program is split about two thirds infill definition drilling and one third exploration drilling.

In recent days it now appears that Minco have decided to sell its minority stake in the Pallasgreen Mine to its partner Xstrata.

The potential impact on the Mulcair River is threefold: • Increased flows and levels in the Mulcair River • Water Quality • Water Temperature Mining below the watertable, and the requirement to over pump extracted water back into the Mulcair River, will significantly increase water flows and levels though insufficient information is available to quantify the volumes.

It is unclear whether consideration to the impacts of the Pallasgreen Zinc Mines has taken place when assessing the route corridors.

3.5.10 Historic Flood Events / Extents

Flooding on the River Shannon November 2009 The area along the proposed Limerick Northern Distributor Road Project has been subject to major flooding. The most recent major flooding event took place in late 2009. Drawing 121-151-003 included in Appendix B indicates the approximate extent of the flooding> Also included in Appendix B are photographs of the 2009 flood and a sketch indicating the flow path of the flood waters (Diagram 01) The extent of the flooding is exacerbated by the fact that both the Mulcair River and the River Shannon “share” a flood plain. As a result of flooding of both major rivers a considerable area of land, including a significant portion of the lands earmarked for the proposed Limerick Northern Distributor Road were flooded. Water levels in some parts reached up to two feet and many residents were only able to access their home by tractor (see Picture 1 Appendix B). The site levels indicate that if the proposed four-lane road is to function in a major flood plain, it would be required that the road be raised by at least 1.5 metres. However, whether the road would remain at its current level or if it were to be raised by 1.5 metres, both scenarios would have a major impact on local residents as the proposed road would contribute immensely to worsen floods (see

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Limerick Northern Distributor Road Project Phase 2 Lisnagry-Annacotty Action Group Route Map01 in Appendix B- Points B to D Levels change by 6m). Constructing the road to a higher level would also entail the construction of a higher level embankment. The higher level embankment would need to be introduced as shown on Route Map01 along points ABCD at a minimum of 8 metres at point B to a minimum of 2 metres at point D above the existing ground level. A number of scenarios would result should this course of action be pursued. If flooding on the River Shannon were to reach this embankment/dam (see Diagram 1 in Appendix B), there will be increased resistance to the flow of this large body of water resulting in a sharp increase in the area’s flooding (see Route Map 01 Ref1 Appendix B). The flood mass (Diagram 02 points A to B Appendix B) is 1.6 kilometres (based on photographs from the LCC flood report Nov/Dec 2009 file - see lcc_re_OT_0000011500.pdf).The proposed road would be the equivalent of a 1.6 Km dam through the centre of a flood plain on Ireland’s largest river. The increase in the flooding potential in the local area would have catastrophic results for both residential and industrial properties in the area. The main advancing body of water in a flood situation would likely approach the dammed area at an angle which would also create an additional flow of the water in direction of red arrow “ “ (see Diagram 1). This would create a funnel effect pushing up in the direction of Point D (see route Map 01).

Flooding on the River Mulcair Flooding on the Rivers Mulcair / Shannon is a major problem for Mountshannon Road residents as the Mountshannon Road is often impassable following heavy rains and/or flooding (see Route Map 01 Ref1). As recently as 2009 residences on the Mountshannon Road have been flooded. The construction of a proposed road at points ABCD (see Route Map 01) would restrict considerably the natural flood plain of the River Mulcair and hence increase considerably the risk of flooding in an already densely populated high-risk area. Further more serious flooding on the Mountshannon Road basin would be caused (see Diagram 01, link road E1 to D1).

General Impacts of Flooding on the Mountshannon Road There is a sewage pumping station located on the banks of the River Mulcair on the Mountshannon Road. Although the Mountshannon pumping station is outside the strict interpretation of the brief of the proposed road, the road will have an impact upon the pumping station. The Mountshannon pumping station collects wastewater from the Annacotty area and pumps it into one of the catchment perimeter trunk sewers feeding the WWTP. This is a small submersible installation with a control kiosk located on a reasonably large site so there is room for expansion or the addition of a balancing tank in the future.

Residents note that there are regular maintenance problems and that the pump house is blocked on a regular basis. In recent years, the pumping station has often flooded following heavy rains and raw sewage has entered the River Mulcair directly. In addition, there are also numerous examples of sewage emerging from manhole covers following heavy rains or when flooding occurs.

Furthermore, the indicated link between Route DI and the Emerging Preferred Route Corridor (link D1 to E1), as shown in the Limerick Northern Distributor Road, Public Consolidation leaflet, June 2011, spanning the River Mulcair, will further exacerbate the flood basin problem.

3.5.11 Summary of the Impacts of Flooding It is considered that until the findings of the CFRAMs are made available and a SFRA is undertaken, route selection of the Northern distributor route is premature. It is clear from the flood extent maps included in Appendix B that all route corridors proposed impact on the existing flood plain. However, based on the available information both Route Option C1 or D1 would have significantly less impact on the Flood Plain as compared to the Emerging Preferred Route Corridor.

On this basis the Emerging Preferred Route Corridor would not pass the Planning System & Flood Management Guidelines Justification Test. In addition, it would appear NO site specific flood risk assessments were undertaken as part of the Route Selection process and as such it is unclear therefore whether measures are included to ensure that the development Justification Test can be passed.

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Limerick Northern Distributor Road Project Phase 2 Lisnagry-Annacotty Action Group Both Clare County Council and Limerick County Council Development Plans make reference to The Planning System & Flood Risk Management (and Technical Appendices) – Guidelines for Planning Authorities (DoEHLG & OPW Nov 2009). In addition, Limerick County Council Development Plan has an objective which “in general” does not permit development of embankments, wide bridge piers or similar structures nor does it permit raising of ground levels where this would interfere with natural river flow or currents in or across flood plains or river channels unless it can be clearly demonstrated using flood impact assessments, that they would not create or exacerbate risk of flooding in sensitive locations. The justification for the Emerging Preferred Route Corridor is therefore unclear as both route options C1 and D1 impact to a lesser extent on the flood plain. The diagrams included on Drawing 121-151-003 in Appendix B, which are based on the November 2009 flooding, demonstrate the impact on the flood plain. Diagram 2 shows the location of the Emerging Preferred Route Corridor (A to B) as it extends through the flood plain, while Diagram 3 shows route D1 as it extends through the flood plain (A to B). It is also unclear whether the impacts of the Pallasgreen Zinc Mines have been taken into consideration when assessing the route corridors.

4.0 Economy Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) forms one element of the appraisal process for road infrastructure projects. CBA serves a number of functions at both the individual scheme level and when comparing different projects: • At the individual scheme level, the results of the CBA indicate whether a road scheme is economically viable; i.e. whether economic benefits resulting from the provision of a scheme outweigh the costs to construct and maintain it. Secondly, they can provide a comparison of alternative options, and • At the national level, the Government has finite resources to commit to road infrastructure improvements. The outputs from economic assessments allow different schemes to be compared and enable the schemes that provide best value to be identified. If the results of the CBA are to be used to prioritise schemes, then the assessments need to be carried out in a consistent manner.

The analysis of monetised costs and benefits is currently limited to the assessment of the following core impacts: • Changes in travel time; • Changes in vehicle operating costs; • Changes in tolls; • Changes in scheme costs and maintenance expenditure; • Delays during construction and maintenance; • Changes in accident costs, and • Changes in greenhouse gases.

4.1 Limerick – Clare Tunnel In relation to economic benefits, it has been reported that the company responsible for the development of the Limerick – Clare Tunnel (Direct Route (Limerick) Ltd.), have been compensated by the National Roads Authority (NRA) to the value of €4.45m in 2011 (Melia, 2012). This is due to the shortfall of 5,000 vehicles per day using the Limerick- Clare tunnel. If the proposed Limerick Northern Distributor road is sanctioned, this will result in a significant decrease in the number of vehicle’s using the Limerick – Clare Tunnel which will in turn, under the terms of the contract between the NRA and Direct Route (Limerick) Ltd., increase the compensation payment to Direct Route (Limerick) Ltd. annually. It has been publicly disclosed that the compensation contract clause will run to 2035 . If conservatively speaking, the Northern Distributor road was to decrease the current vehicles using the tunnel by another 1,000 vehicles a day; this would cost the exchequer an additional estimated €900K per annum. Extrapolating this figure over the remaining term of the compensation agreement with the NRA (23 Years) (Dwane, 2011), this could cost an estimated additional €20.7m to the taxpayer.

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Limerick Northern Distributor Road Project Phase 2 Lisnagry-Annacotty Action Group The cost a user of a transport facility is prepared to pay comprises of several elements, including any physical payments made (such as fares, tolls and vehicle running costs) and the value that the consumer places on his/her time. These elements are combined into an overall “generalised cost” of travel. It is highly improbable that either commercial or non-commercial motorists would travel on a tolled road when a suitable alternative public road will bring them to the same destination, in approximately the same time and with approximately the same vehicle running costs. It can therefore be concluded that the results of a CBA would indicate that the Northern Distributor Road is economically unviable as the economic benefits resulting from the provision of the scheme outweigh the costs to construct and maintain it.

4.2 Killaloe Bypass, Shannon Bridge Crossing and R494 Improvement Mid West Regional Planning Guidelines 2010 - 2022 The Mid West Regional Planning Guidelines have identified the need to improve linkages to Killaloe to allow for the promotion of small enterprises, agri-business and tourism and provide high quality residential locations close to a major city. The Guidelines specifically identify the need for “the link and new bridge between the Killaloe/Limerick route and Nenagh/Limerick route to facilitate access from the north west of the region to the gateway. This development will also involve the provision of a bypass for Killaloe”.

In February of this year, Clare County Council on its own behalf and on behalf of North Tipperary County Council has applied under section 51(2) (as amended by section 9(1)(e)(i) of the Roads Act 2007) to An Bord Pleanala (‘the Board’) for approval in relation to a proposed road development indicated in the figure above. In addition, a Compulsory Purchase Order has been made in respect of the proposed Road Development. As noted above the Government has finite resources to commit to road infrastructure improvements. The outputs from economic assessments allow different schemes to be compared and enable the schemes that provide best value to be identified. If the results of the CBA are to be used to prioritise schemes, then the assessments need to be carried out in a consistent manner. The additional bridge in Killaloe and its’ by-pass service the Gateway and therefore nullifies the need for the Limerick Northern Distributor Road. Given the scarcity of funding for road infrastructure the Limerick Northern Distributor Road is unlikely to proceed in the medium to long term. If this route becomes “the preferred route” then all land along the route corridor will be sterlised resulting in exponential devaluation of property and land.

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4.3 Comparison of Route Corridor Options in Terms of Construction Costs If the Northern Distributor Road was to proceed under it’s current remit, it would result in very significant financial implications for the Taxpayer. The Emerging Preferred Route is the longest route in Co. Limerick and therefore the more costly in terms of construction. Based on the overall length of the Emerging Preferred Route combined with the facts that it traverses circa 1.75km through a flood plain and bisects Mountshannon Road, it would appear that either route C1 or D1 would provide more economically viable options

4.3.1 Economic Analysis

Figure 1 - Emerging Preferred Route

Figure 1 depicts the Emerging Preferred Route from Docking Point E (Dublin Road/Cappamore junction) and to where the road crosses the Shannon. This route is approximately 2.9 Km long. Scenario 1 – Impact of Flood Plain Ignored Using approximations of 1Km of road costing €5m to build, this would cost the exchequer €14.5m to build. With the same section of the Emerging Preferred Route the Compulsory Purchase Order (CPO) would cost in the region of €1.1m. This figure consists of having to purchase approximately 49.5 acres of existing farmland and at least 1 home. The width of the River Shannon at the proposed Emerging Preferred Route Corridor crossing point is approximately 115 metres. With the bridge costs estimated conservatively at approximately €58K a metre (Carillion, 2004), the bridge would be approximately €6.6 m to build. An additional link bridge is on the Emerging Preferred Route Corridor that will span the Mulcair and link the road to the Plassey Park Road roundabout. This bridge is conservatively estimated at 50m long at a cost of €2.9m. Figure 2 depicts the estimated costing summary to bring the Emerging Preferred Route from Docking Point E to span the Shannon bring a total cost to the exchequer for this portion of the Northern Distributor Road to circa €25.2m.

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Limerick Northern Distributor Road Project Phase 2 Lisnagry-Annacotty Action Group

Item Indicative Cost Ignoring Floodplain

Road Costs 2.9 km @€5m per km € 14,500,000

49.5 acres approx CPO € 500,000

1 House and land to be purchased as part of € 600,000 CPO

115m bridge € 6,670,000

50m bridge span over Mulcair River € 2,900,000

Total Costs to bring Docking Point E to span €25,170,000 the Shannon

Figure 2 - Cost Estimations Emerging Preferred Route from Docking Point E to Shannon Crossing (ignoring impact of the Floodplain

Scenario 2 – Consideration given to the Impact of the Flood Plain The flood plain does exist and cannot be ignored. Therefore recognisance of it will need to be considered. It is clear from the mapping included in Appendix B that the Emerging Preferred Route is not only the longest of all of the routes being considered but that it also passes through the widest point of the flood plain. Based on the 2009 flood extents we estimate the extent of the flood plain to be a minimum of 1.75km. Therefore, using the same pricing criteria as noted for scenario 1, the actual cost to construct this 2.9km of road is likely to increase 4 fold to circa €111.0m. Figure 3 below depicts the estimated costing summary

Item Indicative Cost Taking Recognisance of Floodplain

Road Costs 1.15 km @€5m per km € 5,500,000

1.75 km crossing through flood plain @ €58k € 101,500,000 per m

1 House and land to be purchased as part of € 600,000 CPO

49.5 acres approx CPO € 500,000

50m bridge span over Mulcair River € 2,900,000

Total Costs to bring Docking Point E to span €111,000,000 the Shannon

Figure 3 - Cost Estimations Emerging Preferred Route from Docking Point E to Shannon Crossing (considering impact of the Floodplain)

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Limerick Northern Distributor Road Project Phase 2 Lisnagry-Annacotty Action Group

4.4 Summary of Economic Considerations As a result of the under utilisation of the Limerick-Clare Tunnel, compensation is being paid by the National Roads Authority (NRA) to Direct Route. It is therefore expected that the results of a CBA would indicate that the Northern Distributor Road is economically unviable as the economic benefits resulting from the provision of the scheme outweigh the costs to construct and maintain it. The Government has finite resources to commit to road infrastructure improvements. The outputs from economic assessments allow different schemes to be compared and enable the schemes that provide best value to be identified. In the case of the need for the Northern Distributor Road verses the Killaloe By-Pass, it is highly probable that the Killaloe By-Pass will be prioritised. Given the scarcity of funding for road infrastructure the Northern Distributor Road is unlikely to proceed in the medium to long term. Based on the assessment of the construction costs undertaken, the commencement point of the Emerging Preferred Route to where the route crosses the Shannon has a total estimated cost of €111.0m. The cost of constructing either route C1 or D1, whilst not calculated specifically are considered to be significantly less than the Emerging Preferred Route Corridor with specific reference to the cost of constructing through the floodplain. The Emerging Preferred Route Corridor is therefore seriously questionable in monetary terms as it will be the most expensive to construct. When this is considered, in conjunction with the fact that both Route C1 and Route D1 better meet the objective of enhancing access to the University of Limerick and its associated knowledge-based industrial zone, it becomes even more questionable.

References Carillion. (2004, October 1). Carillion Irishenco Ltd. . Retrieved from Carillion Irishenco Ltd. : http://carillionirishencoltd.buaconsulting.com/River_Shannon_Plassey_Campus_Developments_Ltd.ht m

Dwane, M. (2011, June 15). Truckers swerve Limerick Tunnel as NRA bails out operators. Retrieved from Limerick Leader: http://www.limerickleader.ie/news/business/truckers_swerve_limerick_tunnel_as_nra_bails_out_oper ators_1_2773067

Melia, P. (2012, Februrary 2012). Independant.ie. Retrieved from www.independant.ie: http://www.independent.ie/national-news/state-pays-120000-a-week-to-subsidise-road-toll-operators- 3024587.html

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Limerick Northern Distributor Road Project Phase 2 Lisnagry-Annacotty Action Group

5.0 Safety It is accepted that at this stage in the project a Feasibility Stage Road Safety Audit is likely to be all that was undertaken. In general this would have reviewed: • Consistency of standards with adjacent road network, especially at tie-ins • Secondary effects on surrounding road network • Where a preferred scheme is being chosen, relative safety performance of options • Routes • Impact of standard of route, related to design flows and speed, on safety • Overtaking opportunities • Consistency of junction arrangements, access control • Frequency of junctions (public and private) related to safe access • Horizontal and vertical alignments consistent with visibility requirements, both along the road and at junctions • Facilities for pedestrians, cyclists and equestrians • Provision for unusual aspects of traffic composition (heavy concentrations of particular types of road user), • or environment (e.g. sunrise / sunset glare, fog, or wind) The information made available during the Public Consultation process does not indicate whether the Mountshannon Road would be severed as a result of the proposed distributor road, or whether either an at grade or a grade separated junction is proposed. As the Route inadvertently has a secondary effect on the surrounding road network it is believed that this interface should have been given due consideration during the Feasibility Stage Road Safety Audit. In addition, with reference to Drawing CS-501 in Volume 2 of the Constraints Study Report, it is apparent that the Docking Point E1 corresponds with an area with a high number of road traffic accidents. In this regard Routes C1 or Route D1 would be considered more favourable.

6.0 Accessibility and Social Inclusion The Fitzgerald report identified a number of things that needed to be done to assist with the regeneration of parts of Limerick City, including section 3.4: “3.4 Improve access and infrastructure A new road is currently planned to the north of the city linking the N7 to the Coonagh roundabout The planned link road from the Coonagh roundabout to the Moyross Interchange should be ‘frontloaded’ and progressed as a matter of urgency. This will open up potential for mixed-use development in lands in, and adjacent to, Moyross and attract investment, allow for improved transport links, and facilitate greater linkage between the local community and other parts of the city.” Notwithstanding that this objective will be met in its entirety by Phase 1 of the Limerick Northern Distributor Road, the proposed road in that report linked Coonagh, Parteen and Moyross with the Technology Park and UL (see attached map in Appendix C). The logic of this is understood and accepted as creating better linkage with UL and the Technological Park, particularly as there is a road system and roundabout already in place in the Park to link with this proposed route. However, the Emerging Preferred Route Corridor has moved the road away from UL and the Technology Park, which contravenes the objectives of the scheme. Moving the road further away from the City, UL and the Technology Park, results in users having to travel further to avail of one of the main purposes of the road. In a recent article in the Clare Champion it was stated that Shannon Development did not want the road interfering with industry in the Plassey Technological Park. This objection is difficult to understand as a road to the Park should help with attracting and developing industry in the Park. The route through the Technology Park also has the added advantage of not interfering with private land owners & residents, with only publically owned non residential land being affected.

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Limerick Northern Distributor Road Project Phase 2 Lisnagry-Annacotty Action Group

7.0 Integration Transport integration impacts may arise where the project: • Provides a missing link in road networks; • Improves the linkage along key road corridors; • Improves the inter-connectivity between road and other modes; • Provides for public transport and non-mechanised modes, as well as private car and goods vehicle use, and • Provides access to other transport infrastructure such as ports and airports. As noted previously the opening of the Limerick – Clare Tunnel provided connectivity between Coonagh and the M7, hence it provided the missing link in the road network. The construction of the Northern Distributor Road would simply provide an alternative to the tolled route. It is reported that the road would include a cycle path to cater for non mechanised modes though no reference has been made to public transport in the Public Consultation Documentation.

8.0 Transport Modeling

8.1.1 Data Collection No information has been provided to the public with regards to the data collected to build the mode. It is therefore unclear whether the information was gathered through actual traffic counts, census data or some other source. Obviously, without this information it is not possible to critique the quality of that data used.

8.1.2 Transport Model No information has been provided to the public with regards to the transport model network prepared to date, it is therefore unclear if the model accounts of the existing N7- N18 motorway connection. Either way, the justification for a new a dual carriageway in terms of traffic volumes is unclear.

8.1.3 Model Forecasting The forecasting process needs to consider changes in the volume of trips using the network over time and changes to the network itself. While it is usual to use the traffic growth forecasts produced by the NRA we believe they may result in artificially high projections as they do not take into account the downturn in the economy over the last number of years. Therefore, while traffic growth is being forecast, in reality traffic reduction is and has taken place since circa 2008.

Traffic counts undertaken by Punch in recent times, would suggest that the traffic flows in Limerick today are more akin to those in 2003.

A further example of the difficulty of traffic growth forecasting is the Limerick-Clare Tunnel. The threshold for the new tunnel is 17,000 vehicles per day, while it has been reported that the actual level of traffic is circa 13,500 vehicles daily.

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9.0 Project Appraisal Balance Sheet As the actual Project Appraisal Balance Sheet (PABS) for the project has not been made available to the Public at this time, we have undertaken our own overview of the benefits of the Emerging Preferred Route Corridor over the extent that directly impacts on the Communities of Lisnagry / Annacotty verses Routes C1 and D1 (between the Shannon River and their connection to the Dublin Road). In line with the Common Appraisal Framework developed by the Department of Transport, we have considered the PABS for the following criteria:

9.1 Environmental Impacts of the Emerging Preferred Route Corridor The Emerging Preferred Route Corridor will have a negative impact on the Community in terms of: • Air quality • Noise and vibration • Landscape and visual quality • Biodiversity • Cultural heritage / Archaeology • Land use • Soils and geology • Water resources

While it is accepted that any new Distributor Road is likely to have some level of Environmental Impact it is contested that the impact on the local Community will be much more significant than either Route C1 or D1.

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The Distributor Road if built in this location would impact on the intrinsic character of the landscape and the quality of views experienced by the community. The road will act as a barrier to community movement and will very likely result in changes in water quality and levels, air quality and noise and light levels. In addition to the indirect effects on land use (air, noise, visual etc), the construction and presence of a road in this location will result in both temporary and permanent effects on land use through the necessary land-take, the severance of the community and the reduction in the viability of a number of existing farms.

Though the overriding environmental impact, as described in detail earlier in the report is the impact on the Flood Plain. Pollution of ground water and/or water courses or increased sediment loads are also of concern.

9.2 Safety Impacts Safety impacts would be considered to comprise the impact on road accidents and security of the road user. In this context all three route options could be considered to have a similar impact. However, with reference to Drawing CS-501 in Volume 2 of the Constraints Study Report, it is apparent that the Docking Point E1 corresponds with an area with a high number of road traffic accidents. In this regard Routes C1 or Route D1 would be considered more favourable.

9.3 Economy The impacts associated with the consumer’s surplus (time and vehicle operating cost savings) are likely to be similar for all 3 routes. However, the costs of the project are likely to be very different, particularly in light of the fact that the Emerging Preferred option Route is the longest route and also passes through circa 1.5km of flood plain.

9.4 Accessibility and Social Inclusion It is understood from the Fitzgerald report that the construction of the road was aimed at social inclusion. In this respect both Route C1 and Route D1 would appear to better achieve Social Inclusion as they meet the objective of enhancing access to the University of Limerick and its associated knowledge-based industrial zone.

9.5 Integration On the basis of the key objectives of the project as described above it is believed that both route C1 and route D1 better meet the transport integration objective given the connectivity with University of Limerick and its associated knowledge based industrial zone.

In terms of Land Use integration and Geographical Integration all three route options are considered to have a similar impact.

9.6 Outcome of PABS Given the nature of the route options we do not believe any of the Route options is “dominant” in the sense of being superior on all criteria. Rather, there are different merits to route options C1, D1 and the Emerging Preferred Route. The choice appears to be a trade-off between Environment and Economy.

It is accepted that final route selection will invariably involve a trade-off between one or more of the criteria. However, in order to make this trade-off, a balancing or weighting needs to be attributed to the various criteria. Given the very significant impact on the flood plain and the other impacts noted above we believe that these should be considered the predominant factors in the assessment. Therefore, our appraisal does not support the Emerging Preferred Route option, but rather indicates that either route C1 or route D1 would be preferable.

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Appendix A Information in the Public Domain

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Public Consultation Documentation The Limerick Northern Distributor Road - Phase 2, Public Consultation No. 2, Preferred Route Corridor Stage documentation notes the following:

Need for the Scheme The need for the scheme was identified in the Mid-West Regional Planning Guidelines 2010 - 2022’, prepared by the Mid-West Regional Authority which consists of Clare County Council, Tipperary North County Council and Limerick City and County Councils. The guidelines identified many strategic issues that required consideration in the future planning of the region including the need for the provision of a northern distributor road around Limerick City to support the development of the region.

The Fitzgerald Report ‘Addressing the issues of Social Exclusion in Moyross and other disadvantaged areas of Limerick City’ (April 2007) has recommended that a distributor road to the north of Limerick City be progressed to develop economic activity and end the isolation of this deprived area. The various local and county development plans published by Clare County Council and Limerick City and County Councils make provision for the delivery of the proposed road scheme.

Scheme Objective The fundamental objective of the scheme is, to provide a transport link between the eastern and western fringes of Limerick City and a link to South County Clare to facilitate economic development in this region.

It is envisaged that the Limerick Northern Distributor Road Phase 2 will be a dual carriageway, providing two lanes in each direction with pedestrian and cyclist facilities. All right turn manoeuvres directly off the dual carriageway will be prohibited and provided for by the introduction of roundabouts in conjunction with restricted left-in, left-out junctions and accesses.

The route corridor options, together with the feedback received from the public have been carefully assessed under the following five headings; • Environment. • Economy. • Safety. • Accessibility and Social Inclusion. • Integration.

What Happens Next? Following this Public Consultation period, an analysis of all views expressed and submissions received on the Emerging Preferred Route Corridor will be undertaken. If the Emerging Preferred Route Corridor is confirmed, the route corridor will be submitted to the Planning Authorities to safeguard the provision of Phase 2 of the Limerick Northern Distributor Road. The Preferred Route Corridor will be further developed during the design stage with the completion of an Environmental Impact Statement. The Statutory Orders and the Environmental Impact Statement will be published in advance of an Oral Hearing which may be required by An Bord Pleanála.

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Mid-West Regional Planning Guidelines 2010 - 2022

The Mid-West Regional Planning Guidelines 2010 - 2022’, section 6.1 Priority Transport Infrastructure, the guidelines note the Northern Ring Road as a priority stating:

Northern Ring Route for Limerick City linking the N7 and N18 to protect the City Centre, to enhance access to Shannon International Airport and its related industrial zone from eastern parts of the country, and to enhance access to the University of Limerick and its associated knowledge-based industrial zone;

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Appendix B Drawing 121-151-003 Flood Extents Mapping (based on 2009 Flood) Drawing 121-151-004 Photographs of Flooding Route Map 01

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Appendix C Route Proposed in the Fitzgerald Report for the Northern Distributor Road

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Limerick City Map

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Appendix D GSI Mapping – Bedrock Faults Ground Water Report Ground Water Bodies GSI National Draft Bedrock Aquifer Map GSI National Draft Generalised Bedrock Map GSI National Draft Gravel Aquifer Map GSI National Vulnerability Map GSI subsoil Data

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