Housing Trends Report Is Divided Into Five Subject Sections
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Trends in Somerville: Housing Technical Report September 2009 Mayor Joseph A. Curtatone City of Somerville Office of Strategic Planning and Community Development Housing Trends City of Somerville Comprehensive Plan Table of Contents Technical Report #4 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction Page 4-ii Housing Stock Page 4-1 Housing Tenure and Occupancy Page 4-16 Housing Prices Page 4-30 Housing Pressures Page 4-42 Public Support for Housing Page 4-58 __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ September 2009 Page 4-i Housing Trends City of Somerville Comprehensive Plan Report Introduction Technical Report #4 REPORT INTRODUCTION Somerville has not experienced a surge in homeownership during the last twenty years. Somerville’s housing stock is constantly changing. While the City’s • Since 2000, Somerville has experienced far greater rates of residential neighborhoods were largely built out by 1920, condominium activity (conversion of rental apartments to redevelopment of commercial, industrial and institutional lands has ownership condominiums, along with new construction of created new housing opportunities and challenges for the condo projects) than neighboring cities have. community. Even in Somerville’s established neighborhoods, • Like the rest of the metropolitan region, Somerville has profound shifts in household and family composition have occurred, experienced dramatic increases to housing prices since 2000. altering historical patterns of occupancy within residential units. Interestingly, the current recession has affected Somerville in Certain housing trends mirror changes observed at the national, state different ways than neighboring cities. and regional scales, while in other aspects Somerville has changed in • To date, the national foreclosure crisis has not impacted ways that are different even from immediate neighbors such as Somerville as acutely as many neighboring communities. Boston and Cambridge. However, foreclosures are on the rise, and mortgage lending data suggest that hundreds of Somerville households could be This report was prepared by the Mayor’s Office of Strategic Planning at-risk in coming years. and Community Development (OSPCD) in order to establish a solid • foundation of data from which to inform future policy decisions. While Somerville’s chronically homeless population appears Additionally, with the 2010 federal Census approaching, an to have decreased in recent years, the frequency of family understanding of previous housing trends will be critical to ensure an homelessness is increasing. accurate count of Somerville’s residents. Key findings of the report • Public support for housing in Somerville is strong, and the include the following: City has a large and diverse inventory of subsidized housing. Even so, demand for affordable housing continues to exceed • Two-thirds of Somerville’s housing units are located in small supply, challenging the City and its partners in the private, multifamily dwellings (two-, three- and four-family); no other public and nonprofit sectors. community in the region is so heavily weighted toward small multifamily structures. The Housing Trends report is divided into five subject sections. • Consistent with national and state trends, household and They are: family sizes have decreased significantly since 1950. This trend suggests that Somerville’s housing stock is being 1. Housing Stock occupied by fewer residents than in previous generations. 2. Housing Tenure and Occupancy • Like most other urban communities, Somerville is a city of 3. Housing Prices renters, with approximately two-thirds of housing units 4. Housing Pressures renter-occupied. Unlike many urban communities, 5. Public Support for Housing __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ September 2009 Page 4-ii Housing Trends City of Somerville Comprehensive Plan Report Introduction Technical Report #4 Data Sources and Methodology: Where time-series data is presented in this report, rigorous quality- assurance work has been conducted to standardize data. A primary data source for this report is the US Census. Census data allow consistent analyses of housing trends in Somerville as far back • All historical monetary values have been adjusted for inflation as 1880 (the date of the first decennial Census following Somerville’s to 2009 US dollars. incorporation as a city in 1872). The 2000 Census provides housing • Real estate sales data have been cleaned to eliminate “non- data that are extremely rich in detail; however, significant limitations arms-length deals” and emphasize fair market transactions. must be acknowledged: 1. The most complete Census data currently available was collected in 2000, and may not accurately reflect conditions Comparison with Other Jurisdictions: on the ground in 2009. 2. Annual estimates published by the Census Bureau since 2000 To provide context for Somerville’s housing changes, this report uses (the “American Community Survey”) offer significantly less a number of comparable statistics, including data at the national, detail and less accuracy than the decennial Census. The state, metropolitan and local scales. Most analyses provide data for margin of error for many of these datasets is very high. cities and towns that border Somerville, as well as several other 3. The Census is prone to undercounting specific groups of communities in the immediate vicinity whose historical development persons: low-income persons, young adults, non-English patterns and demographic profiles are relatively comparable to speakers, recent immigrants, and persons “doubled up” in Somerville’s: housing units. • Arlington A second major data source is the Somerville Assessing Department. • Boston Assessor’s data provide detailed information on real property, • Cambridge including structure type and condition, construction and • Chelsea rehabilitation activity, ownership characteristics, and property sales. • Everett Additional sources include federal and state agencies, primarily the • Malden US Department of Housing & Urban Development; and the • Medford Massachusetts Department of Housing & Community Development. The Greater Boston Housing Report Card (an annually-published collaboration between Northeastern University and the Boston Foundation) provides excellent real estate data for neighboring cities and towns. Data collected and published by local entities in the nonprofit, academic and private sectors are also included. __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ September 2009 Page 4-iii Housing Trends City of Somerville Comprehensive Plan Report Introduction Technical Report #4 A Note on Demographic Mapping: To enhance the readability of the Block Group maps, reference points such as streets and squares are not shown. Please see Reference Map 1 on the following page for an overlay of Block The US Census Bureau collects demographic data by household, but Group boundaries with the city’s street grid and major commercial aggregates the data to larger units before publication in order to squares. maintain respondents’ privacy. The most detailed data are generally published by “Block Group” (clusters of city blocks, generally containing roughly 1,000 residents). In 2000, the Census Bureau divided Somerville into 67 Block Groups, with total Block Group populations ranging from 425 residents to over 2,700. Block Group boundaries change from Census to Census. For example, the 1990 federal Census divided Somerville into 76 Block Groups. These administrative changes reflect the Census Bureau’s best understanding of conditions on the ground, and are often informed by recommendations from local governments. A critical finding of this report is that Census Block Group “3501001” (Assembly Square and The States neighborhood of East Somerville) should be subdivided into two new Block Groups for the 2010 Census. The Assembly Square portion of Block Group 3501001 (north of Interstate 93) currently has no residential land uses, while The States neighborhood is one of the city’s oldest and most densely populated residential and mixed-use districts. All of the maps included in this report show Block Group 3501001 divided along Interstate 93. The demographic information recorded by the Census Bureau for the Block Group is attributed to the southern portion to enhance its accuracy. This reallocation of data is critical to prevent any skewing of the demographic profile for these two neighborhoods. Futhermore, as the City implements its redevelopmment plans for Assembly Square, an accurate record of base conditions will be essential going forward. __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ September 2009 Page 4-iv )" Reference Map 1: Census Block Groups (2000) Medford Square Source = US Census Block Group Boundaries *Assembly Square Streets Block Group split for spatial accuracy Assembly Square Block Group ¯ M E D F O R D t S E V E R E T T h t r o s t i c R i N y v N M e r O P o w T d e r H G o u s e B N l v d Ball I Teele Square I t L n Square )" M J a S t R " E ) )" a y D F O Magoun q u e B r o a d w R e e A D s r S l v Assembly v Square t s p t A A H a Square o e )" m g t l e w e e l a l l o T n o l 9 d C l 3 S i M t e C W d A f o M )" r d N t B r B H i o a d w g S S a h l y O t R a t M Davis n d t l A S I T v S D l t Square s c )" e S S G E l s P e o l a G t w a r E l n m O S t r r i Sullivan S o l S t C r B t L H k r n i g h )" a Square l a n n a e d A a v t r d C Gilman h Porter )" e F t Square S C n S u m to Square m e r t ng S t S i I sh t a n H u W n n l i e a g r W S o m h B e r v i l l e A v w e l )" a t t y S R ton ing Union d sh Wa Square B e a c Mayor Joseph A.