Insights Into Future Electric Mobility

INSIGHTS INTO FUTURE ELECTRIC MOBILITY by I-Yun Lisa Hsieh B.S. in Chemical Engineering, National Taiwan University B.B.A. in Finance, National Taiwan University Submitted to the Department of Chemical Engineering in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Chemical Engineering at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY May 2020 © Massachusetts Institute of Technology 2020. All rights reserved. Author Department of Chemical Engineering May 8, 2020 Certified by William H. Green Hoyt C. Hottel Professor of Chemical Engineering Thesis Supervisor Accepted by Patrick S. Doyle Robert T. Haslam (1911) Professor of Chemical Engineering Chairman, Department Committee on Graduate Students 1 2 Insights into Future Electric Mobility by I-Yun Lisa Hsieh Submitted to the Department of Chemical Engineering on May 8, 2020, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Chemical Engineering Abstract Growing global awareness of the environmental impacts of combustion is accelerating electric vehicles (EVs) adoption. However, future sustainable mobility cannot be achieved without substantial changes in vehicle technology, consumer behavior, infrastructure systems, and policy. Great impacts and uncertainties are anticipated during the transition towards electric mobility. This thesis examines key areas of interest such as battery techno-economic characteristics, EV recharging ecosystem, dynamics behind the market evolution, the prospects and challenges for the transition to electrification, and the impacts of evolving EV policies. For example, given that the battery prices have been dropping rapidly in the past several years, a recurring question is how much lower battery prices can be expected to go. Greater production volumes and improvements in manufacturing efficiency will drive down costs, but the prices will eventually stabilize as they get closer to the cost of the materials they are made of. A 2-stage learning curve model is developed to investigate how the essential materials, especially expensive elements (lithium, nickel and cobalt) used in current battery technologies, will constrain the declining trajectory of production costs and set practical lower bounds on battery prices. Another big uncertainty surrounding EVs is whether they could really create a cleaner planet. EVs avoid tailpipe emissions of CO2 and air pollutants from fossil fuel combustion but may lead to greater emissions from the upstream stage of electricity generation, especially in the world’s largest EV market, China, where coal-fired power generation has been the backbone of the electricity supply. The current lifecycle emissions comparison for vehicles with different 3 powertrains is presented and how China’s sustainable mobility policy will affect future climate change, air quality, and public health is also explored. This thesis provides information that will help stakeholders anticipate and navigate some of the changes that lie ahead owing to a policy-driven shift from liquid fuels to electrification. The evaluation focuses mostly on private passenger vehicle sector, which in part reflects a recognition that this is the segment that is likely to be responding most proactively to the developments in advanced powertrains, alternative fuels, and environmental policies. Thesis Supervisor: William H. Green Title: Hoyt C. Hottel Professor in Chemical Engineering 4 Acknowledgement First and foremost, I would like to express my sincere appreciation to Professor William H. Green for his supervision and the insights at every stage of this work. He has been supportive and has given me a lot of freedom to explore my research work, making me more confident in my abilities to push boundaries. His gracious personality and advising style are examples that I will always remember and seek to emulate. My thesis committee members—Professors Robert C. Armstrong, Steven Barrett, and Sergey Paltsev—have brought complementary and helpful perspectives into our annual meetings. This interdisciplinary work is only possible due to their involvement and generous supports. I would like to acknowledge the financial support of the MIT Energy Initiative’s Mobility of the Future Study and Taiwan’s Think Global Education Trust Scholarship. It is from their support that I am able to spend the time to investigate the complex mobility systems. I feel very fortunate to be part of the Mobility of the Future Study: for me, the most attractive part is that the project involves more than one discipline of science, so I can not only hone my existing skills but also learn a lot from researchers I would never have a chance to interact with by staying in my department. Because I am the only graduate student from the Chemical Engineering Department in the team, I can work independently to address problems when coming up. Therefore, I would also like to thank Randy Field for his admirable leadership and persistence in pulling everything together, no matter how hard it is. I would like to extend my thanks to other members of the Mobility Study team, including John Heywood, Christopher Knittel, Chintan Vaishnav, Jinhua Zhao, Emre Gençer, Joanna Moody, Abbas Ghandi, Ashley Nunes, Paul Kishimoto, Jennifer Morris, Raymond Speth, Ian Miller, Rakesh Sridhar, and Dustin Weigl. It is a real pleasure to get to know Menghsuan Sam Pan, who has contributed to several chapters of this work. I thank him for his friendship as well as technical supports. I also thank my friends at MIT, both in my class and from Taiwan, for their company and their encouragement, helping me overcome all the difficulties in my Ph.D. life. I am also grateful to be part of the Green Research Group. Although I do not have a chance to collaborate with the other members in the group, I still want to thank all of them for being so friendly and keeping such a great research atmosphere. 5 I cannot express how grateful I am to my wonderful Taipei support team—especially Dad Jindar Hsieh, Mom Amy Lee, Sisters Elaine Hsieh and Shirley Hsieh—for their love and continuous confidence in everything I do. Finally, I want to express my special gratitude to my husband, Johnson Wen, for always being there for me right from the first day we met. We have shared so many beautiful moments together since kindergarten, from Taiwan to the USA; his support and unflinching care always bring me energy and inner peace. 6 Contents Chapter 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................... 16 1.1 Background ............................................................................................................................ 17 1.1.1 Benefits to electric vehicles ............................................................................................ 17 1.1.2 Electric vehicle market ................................................................................................... 18 1.1.3 Barriers to electric vehicle adoption ................................................................................ 18 1.1.4 Policies to promote EV deployment ................................................................................ 19 1.1.5 Mobility system growth and policies in China ................................................................. 20 1.2 Thesis overview ..................................................................................................................... 20 Chapter 2. Counterfactual prediction in vehicle demand: Incorporating multiple uncertainties into projections of Chinese private car sales and stock ................................... 23 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 25 2.2 Methodology and data .................................................................................................................. 26 2.2.1 Car stock and sales ................................................................................................................ 26 2.2.2 The car ownership function ................................................................................................... 28 2.3 Results and analysis ..................................................................................................................... 31 2.2.1 Parameter space for α, β, and γ .............................................................................................. 31 2.2.2 Private car stock .................................................................................................................... 33 2.2.3 Private car sales .................................................................................................................... 35 2.2.4 Sensitivity analysis ................................................................................................................ 37 2.4 Discussion ................................................................................................................................... 39 2.5 Extension ..................................................................................................................................... 40 2.6 Conclusion................................................................................................................................... 41 Chapter 3. Outlook for vehicle batteries: Practical limits on battery price reduction ......... 43 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................

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