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Slides Lecture 2 William F. Banholzer ExecuBve Vice President and Chief Technology Officer March 22, 2011 The Challenge of Taking a New Idea into a Commercial Business The Story of the Dow POWERHOUSE Solar Shingle W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Damev 1 Global Megatrends HEALTH & TRANSPORTATION & ENERGY CONSUMERISM NUTRITION INFRASTRUCTURE W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Why Dow Solar? Dow chooses to operate where materials science exper2se drives success Energy Water Energy Storage Purification Generation Dow Kokam Superior Materials: Superior Materials: Superior Materials: Cathode Energy efficiency improvements Balance Of Systems Anode for reverse osmosis and ultra- AestheBcs Electrolytes filtraon separaons. Performance Separator Durability W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Size is a CompeCCve Advantage • Ultra low viscosity • High heat resistance • Hydrocarbon based Chip Underfill Formulated Dow Epoxy Systems Products Performance Products EPOXY 12 Unique Building Blocks W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame R&D Interests – Energy and the Environment Audi R-10 Dow Building & Dow AutomoBve ConstrucBon: Systems: Energy Efficient Roof & Wall AERIFY™ Diesel ParBculate Soluons Filters W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Potenal for Solar Average Solar Radiation 1990-2004 Solar Capture Process W/m2 Efficiency Sugar Cane to Ethanol 0.60 0.30% Energy Crop - Fermentation 0.70 0.32% US Corn to Ethanol (gross) 0.32 0.16% Algenol 4.0 2.0% Wind Farm 4.0 2.0% Concentrated Solar 3.2 1.6% Total solar energy on land = 697,000 EJ/year PV cell (10%) 20 10% 1300 x world needs! “I’d put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope Issues: we don’t have to wait un2l oil and coal run out before we tackle that.” • Intermiency Thomas Edison 1931 • Cost Adapted from Mines ParisTech / Armines ©2006 W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Dow Parcipaon in Solar • PEG cung fluids • Ethylcellulose paste binder BIPV • Cleaning fluids & slurries • Light induced plang • CIGS • Flexible front sheet materials • Printed metallizaon • EVA replacements • TCOs for point contact • Back sheet materials • Barrier layers • Adhesives • CIGs inks • Printed metallizaon • Epoxies • Liquid acrylics • Adhesives • ThermoplasBcs, • Performance plasBcs • XL EVA encapsulant films • UV curable liquid encapsulants BAPV • Ion exchange resin • HTTF for disBllaon & reducBon • Ultra pure water & waste water • High Temperature treatment Thermal Fluids • Polycrystalline silicons • Epoxies • Monosilane gas for thin films CSP W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Dow CSP Concentrated Solar Power DOWTHERM™ A Heat Transfer Fluid • Established relaonships with important system OEMs • Proven ability to deliver high volumes to remote locaons • Back integraon to key raw materials Addressable Market: 5,000 MW by 2020 Genera2ng 400 MW of power in Spain and North America Supplying 250,000 homes with electrical power Reducing carbon emissions by 800,000 MT annually W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Silicon Based Cells Silicon Based Solar Dow PV Encapsulants & Backsheets • UV resistance • Electrical resisBvity • Reduced water transmission • Feedstock OpBons • Chemical stability $500 MM/year market 30% annual growth $1B by 2011 • Adhesive • Pong Agents Silicones: • Adhesive/Sealant Durable & Transparent Crystalline Polysilicon Cells • Frame sealing/bonding • Structural bonding • 6 decades of proven performance • JuncBon box pong agents • World class IP • Adhesives • HSC is leading world supplier • Encapsulaon $3,200 MM/year market 20% annual growth Dow BIPV NEW Addressable Market: ~$5B by 2015 compared to ~$1B for niche PV W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Solar – The Same Challenges PV cells alone do not make a business Thin films - a challenging space SOLYNDRA received: Excluding First Solar there are now More than $1 billion 170 companies in the sector and from venture capital more than $2 billion invested over 2 + years Bmeframe. $535 million from DOE $59 million in revenue < 100MW sold in 2008 $108 million of costs of goods sold 17.2MW of CIGS panels shipped- Bankrupt hkp://www.greentechmedia.com Greentech IPO Report: Past, Present and Top Ten IPO Candidates August 16, 2010 hkp://seekingalpha.com/arBcle/211350-lessons-from-solyndra-s-failed-ipo www.gtmresearch.com/report/thin-film-2010-market-outlook-to-2015 Lessons From Solyndra’s failed IPO, Greentech Media www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/blog/post/2010/05/whats-coming-for-solar-thin-film W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame hkp://www.nrel.gov/analysis/pdfs/46025.pdf Major Obstacles to ResidenCal BIPV AdopCon Cost SunPower • Cost = $7.50-9.00/Wa installed • Requires premium s-Bles/concrete roofing Bles AtlanBs SunSlate •Cost = $13-$15/Wa •Requires premium roofing slates •Heavy (Si panels + fiber cement slate) •Labor intensive Roof Integrity/Warranty Installation Complexity Aesthetics W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Head to Head CompeCCon W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame The Challenges of Supply Channel Selection Markets Selection Builder Direct, Reroofing, Retrofit, Commercial, Building Material Distributor, ResidenBal, New ConstrucBon Solar Integrator Example: Solar Integrator / ResidenCal New ConstrucCon Solar Custom Bldr Home Integrator /Re-roofer Owner Sell Design Custom Kit Site Utility Tech. Products Arrays Creation Assessments Permitting Interconnect Sales Installation Requires: New Supply Chain (Packaging, Order LogisBcs) Define Sales Locaon, Product Claims, Warranty, Product Awareness, Regional Codes & Standards, Installaon Guides, Inverter SelecBon, Training, Data Monitoring SelecBon, etc…. W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Codes and Standards Thousands of In-house and Agency Tests UL790 TEST MIAMI DAMP HEAT 300,000 Man Hours Of Engineering CLASS A BEST RATING Building, Safety, and Performance Codes MIDLAND SNOW & ICE HANDLING & INSTALLATION HAIL & INCLEMENT PHOENIX DRY HEAT WEATHER 0443 (PV) UL 790 0445 PlasBcs TAS 100-95 UL1897 UL 746 ASTM D635 ASTM E1929 UL 514 IEC 61646 ASTM DS2843 UL 1703 W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame ASTM DS2843 Success……. Or Failure? hp:// econotwist.wordpress.com/ 2010/07/06/bp-rules-out-issuing- new-shares/ 20 year life product Generates profit Excellent roofing properties Excellent electricity generation Strong consumer demand W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Reliability is not opConal First Solar is addressing a product which will cost hundreds of millions beyond its product warranty. The CEO, Mike Ahearn, referred to the product failure as a manufacturing excursion. W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Reliability Targets The Design Key queson: Airline Events Where do you posiBon New Product? ~99.99999% Balance cost and reliability New product Home wiring Reliability ~99.9957% Has the reliability target been Household Appliances ~ 92% established? Electronics ~85% And does the test protocol validate the target? W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Reliability Targets Reliability Target Design Capability Process Capability Producon Is design capable of 20 yr Does process meet design Are process & design intent 20 yrs on the roof life? requirements? met in every part? Weld joint Weld joint • System 1E-3 • Individual weld • Each joint 1E-4 1E-2 or 3.8 σ (2 welds/joint) Set-point Airline Events Validate design ~99.99999% à Spec set Spec Control plan to Life 20 yr 3σ or 6σ? assure capability is Electrical Receptacle (per Reliability per yr maintained home) ~99.9957% Field Stress Accelerated Condion Stress Prototype parts - small “n” ProducGon parts - large “n” Concept to CommercializaGon Expensive W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Systems Approach The Product 1 Shingle 1 String 1 Inverter 1 Grid ed array 10’s of Shingles 100’s of components 10’s End pieces 100’s Power electronics 100’s of Shingles Establish performance & reliability targets based on system look W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Reliable Process and Product Design System Reliability Block Diagram PV String 1 Grid Bed array 1 PV Lightning DC Wiring Inverter Meter AC Array Event Fused Distribution Disconnect Panel Sub-system 1 Inverter PV String 10’s End pieces 2 100’s Power electronics PV Starter Module Connectors Row to Through 100’s of Shingles String Row Roof Component 100’s of connecons 1000’s welds PV Electromigration Moisture Delamination Diode Resistance Resistance Impact Break Module Degradation Permeation Failure Conductive Connectors in buss 1000’s of discrete pieces and Short Adhesive or Connectors weld System Component X Sub-system = Reliability Reliability Reliability Robust Design for noise variables like environment and installa2on W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Reliable Process and Product Design Cost effecBve design requires stasBcal tolerance Accelerated CondiBons Worst case stack up is impracBcal Real Life Installaon Environmental variables Temperature, humidity, light, condions Required mean Field performance UV, array design, installaon impact power output of 1.5 X Raw Process Materials condions Molding adds temperature, mech Stress Level Molding σ Use stress 0.98x ±1.2σ1 stress Raw Process Materials condions Months Years Laminaon improves contact, Laminate Packaging Adds temp, mech stress Raw Process Materials condions Circuit adds Circuit CompleBon resistance Stress Level Raw Process Materials condions Incoming power distribuBon Cell (Design for a mean of 2-5 X) x ±σ σ 1 Required mean of X to succeed W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame CalculaCng AcceleraCon
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