William F. Banholzer Execu ve Vice President and Chief Technology Officer March 22, 2011
The Challenge of Taking a New Idea into a Commercial Business The Story of the Dow POWERHOUSE Solar Shingle
W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Damev 1 Global Megatrends
HEALTH & TRANSPORTATION & ENERGY CONSUMERISM NUTRITION INFRASTRUCTURE
W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Why Dow Solar?
Dow chooses to operate where materials science exper se drives success Energy Water Energy Storage Purification Generation
Dow Kokam
Superior Materials: Superior Materials: Superior Materials: Cathode Energy efficiency improvements Balance Of Systems Anode for reverse osmosis and ultra- Aesthe cs Electrolytes filtra on separa ons. Performance Separator Durability
W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Size is a Compe ve Advantage
• Ultra low viscosity • High heat resistance • Hydrocarbon based
Chip Underfill Formulated Dow Epoxy Systems Products Performance Products
EPOXY 12 Unique Building Blocks
W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame R&D Interests – Energy and the Environment
Audi R-10
Dow Building & Dow Automo ve Construc on: Systems: Energy Efficient Roof & Wall AERIFY™ Diesel Par culate Solu ons Filters
W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Poten al for Solar
Average Solar Radiation 1990-2004 Solar Capture Process W/m2 Efficiency Sugar Cane to Ethanol 0.60 0.30%
Energy Crop - Fermentation 0.70 0.32%
US Corn to Ethanol (gross) 0.32 0.16%
Algenol 4.0 2.0%
Wind Farm 4.0 2.0%
Concentrated Solar 3.2 1.6% Total solar energy on land = 697,000 EJ/year PV cell (10%) 20 10% 1300 x world needs! “I’d put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope Issues: we don’t have to wait un l oil and coal run out before we tackle that.” • Intermi ency Thomas Edison 1931 • Cost Adapted from Mines ParisTech / Armines ©2006 W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Dow Par cipa on in Solar
• PEG cu ng fluids • Ethylcellulose paste binder BIPV • Cleaning fluids & slurries • Light induced pla ng • CIGS • Flexible front sheet materials • Printed metalliza on • EVA replacements • TCOs for point contact • Back sheet materials • Barrier layers • Adhesives • CIGs inks • Printed metalliza on • Epoxies • Liquid acrylics • Adhesives • Thermoplas cs, • Performance plas cs • XL EVA encapsulant films • UV curable liquid encapsulants BAPV • Ion exchange resin • HTTF for dis lla on & reduc on • Ultra pure water & waste water • High Temperature treatment Thermal Fluids • Polycrystalline silicons • Epoxies • Monosilane gas for thin films CSP
W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Dow CSP
Concentrated Solar Power DOWTHERM™ A Heat Transfer Fluid • Established rela onships with important system OEMs • Proven ability to deliver high volumes to remote loca ons • Back integra on to key raw materials Addressable Market: 5,000 MW by 2020
Genera ng 400 MW of power in Spain and North America Supplying 250,000 homes with electrical power Reducing carbon emissions by 800,000 MT annually
W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Silicon Based Cells
Silicon Based Solar Dow PV Encapsulants & Backsheets • UV resistance • Electrical resis vity • Reduced water transmission • Feedstock Op ons • Chemical stability $500 MM/year market 30% annual growth $1B by 2011 • Adhesive • Po ng Agents Silicones: • Adhesive/Sealant Durable & Transparent Crystalline Polysilicon Cells • Frame sealing/bonding • Structural bonding • 6 decades of proven performance • Junc on box po ng agents • World class IP • Adhesives • HSC is leading world supplier • Encapsula on $3,200 MM/year market 20% annual growth Dow BIPV
NEW Addressable Market: ~$5B by 2015 compared to ~$1B for niche PV
W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Solar – The Same Challenges
PV cells alone do not make a business Thin films - a challenging space SOLYNDRA received: Excluding First Solar there are now More than $1 billion 170 companies in the sector and from venture capital more than $2 billion invested over 2 + years meframe. $535 million from DOE
$59 million in revenue < 100MW sold in 2008 $108 million of costs of goods sold 17.2MW of CIGS panels shipped- Bankrupt
h p://www.greentechmedia.com Greentech IPO Report: Past, Present and Top Ten IPO Candidates August 16, 2010 h p://seekingalpha.com/ar cle/211350-lessons-from-solyndra-s-failed-ipo www.gtmresearch.com/report/thin-film-2010-market-outlook-to-2015 Lessons From Solyndra’s failed IPO, Greentech Media www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/blog/post/2010/05/whats-coming-for-solar-thin-film
W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame h p://www.nrel.gov/analysis/pdfs/46025.pdf Major Obstacles to Residen al BIPV Adop on
Cost SunPower • Cost = $7.50-9.00/Wa installed • Requires premium s- les/concrete roofing les
Atlan s SunSlate •Cost = $13-$15/Wa •Requires premium roofing slates •Heavy (Si panels + fiber cement slate) •Labor intensive Roof Integrity/Warranty Installation Complexity
Aesthetics
W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Head to Head Compe on
W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame The Challenges of Supply
Channel Selection Markets Selection Builder Direct, Reroofing, Retrofit, Commercial, Building Material Distributor, Residen al, New Construc on Solar Integrator
Example: Solar Integrator / Residen al New Construc on
Solar Custom Bldr Home Integrator /Re-roofer Owner
Sell Design Custom Kit Site Utility Tech. Products Arrays Creation Assessments Permitting Interconnect Sales Installation
Requires: New Supply Chain (Packaging, Order Logis cs) Define Sales Loca on, Product Claims, Warranty, Product Awareness, Regional Codes & Standards, Installa on Guides, Inverter Selec on, Training, Data Monitoring Selec on, etc…. W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Codes and Standards
Thousands of In-house and Agency Tests UL790 TEST MIAMI DAMP HEAT 300,000 Man Hours Of Engineering CLASS A BEST RATING Building, Safety, and Performance Codes
MIDLAND SNOW & ICE HANDLING & INSTALLATION
HAIL & INCLEMENT PHOENIX DRY HEAT WEATHER
0443 (PV) UL 790 0445 Plas cs TAS 100-95 UL1897 UL 746 ASTM D635 ASTM E1929 UL 514 IEC 61646 ASTM DS2843 UL 1703 W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame ASTM DS2843
Success……. Or Failure?
h p:// econotwist.wordpress.com/ 2010/07/06/bp-rules-out-issuing- new-shares/
20 year life product Generates profit Excellent roofing properties Excellent electricity generation Strong consumer demand
W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Reliability is not op onal
First Solar is addressing a product which will cost hundreds of millions beyond its product warranty. The CEO, Mike Ahearn, referred to the product failure as a manufacturing excursion.
W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Reliability Targets
The Design Key ques on: Airline Events Where do you posi on New Product? ~99.99999% Balance cost and reliability
New product
Home wiring Reliability ~99.9957% Has the reliability target been Household Appliances ~ 92% established?
Electronics ~85% And does the test protocol validate the target?
W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Reliability Targets
Reliability Target Design Capability Process Capability Produc on
Is design capable of 20 yr Does process meet design Are process & design intent 20 yrs on the roof life? requirements? met in every part?
Weld joint Weld joint • System 1E-3 • Individual weld • Each joint 1E-4 1E-2 or 3.8 σ (2 welds/joint)
Set-point Airline Events Validate design ~99.99999% à Spec set Spec Control plan to Life 20 yr 3σ or 6σ? assure capability is Electrical Receptacle (per
Reliability per yr maintained home) ~99.9957% Field Stress Accelerated Condi on Stress Prototype parts - small “n” Produc on parts - large “n”
Concept to Commercializa on Expensive
W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Systems Approach
The Product
1 Shingle 1 String 1 Inverter 1 Grid ed array 10’s of Shingles 100’s of components 10’s End pieces 100’s Power electronics 100’s of Shingles
Establish performance & reliability targets based on system look
W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Reliable Process and Product Design
System Reliability Block Diagram PV String 1 Grid ed array 1 PV Lightning DC Wiring Inverter Meter AC Array Event Fused Distribution Disconnect Panel Sub-system 1 Inverter PV String 10’s End pieces 2 100’s Power electronics
PV Starter Module Connectors Row to Through 100’s of Shingles String Row Roof Component 100’s of connec ons 1000’s welds PV Electromigration Moisture Delamination Diode Resistance Resistance Impact Break Module Degradation Permeation Failure Conductive Connectors in buss 1000’s of discrete pieces and Short Adhesive or Connectors weld
System Component X Sub-system = Reliability Reliability Reliability
Robust Design for noise variables like environment and installa on W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Reliable Process and Product Design
Cost effec ve design requires sta s cal tolerance Accelerated Condi ons Worst case stack up is imprac cal Real Life Installa on Environmental variables Temperature, humidity, light, condi ons Required mean Field performance UV, array design, installa on impact power output of 1.5 X Raw Process Materials condi ons Molding adds
temperature, mech Stress Level Molding σ Use stress 0.98x ±1.2σ1 stress Raw Process Materials condi ons Months Years Lamina on improves contact, Laminate Packaging Adds temp, mech stress
Raw Process Materials condi ons Circuit adds Circuit Comple on resistance Stress Level
Raw Process Materials condi ons Incoming power distribu on
Cell (Design for a mean of 2-5 X) x ±σ σ 1 Required mean of X to succeed W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Calcula ng Accelera on Factors
W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Challenges of Material Design and Selec on
Materials Challenges Material Proper es & Design - Over 20 Materials With Different Material Proper es Modulus, CTE, Density, Elas c/Plas c Proper es, Fa gue, Aging Proper es, - Over 40 Interfaces Of Materials Interface Proper es…etc - Over 15 Assembly Steps Temperature, Stress, Strain, design…
Ver cal Displacement [mm] Over Mold Material PV ~5 mm Barrier
Temp. profile: 85 °C à 23 °C Calculated : 4.89 mm Understanding design-material interac on Minimizing Warpage Through FEA Energy (work) Balance On Mul ple Layers ∂Tij ∂Tij ∂X k 0 Equilibrium = = tiδuidS + fiδuidV = TijδEijdV ∂x j ∂X k ∂x j ∫S ∫V ∫V
1 ⎛ ∂ui ∂u j ∂uk ∂uk ⎞ Eij = ⎜ + + ⎟ Strain 2 ⎜ ∂X ∂X ∂X ∂X ⎟ ⎝ j i i j ⎠ Trac on Body Force Force ui = xi − X i Displacement W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Hydrostable Material Selec on
Connector Lifetime Analysis for 99.9999% Reliability Material life me analysis at 99.9999% reliability 100.00 • Tests conducted under mul ple
20 yrs Material 2: 95% LCB accelerated condi ons of Material 1: 95% LCB 10.00 temperature and humidity Material 2: Mean Material 1: Mean • Failure defined as 50% property T_Equivalent in Miami 1.00 change 20 Years • Accelera on factor calculated 0.10
Lifetime, years based on the me to failure at each stress condi on 0.01 • Performance of material 1 inadequate 0.00 310 320 330 340 350 360 370 380 390 400 • Confidence bounds at real stress Temperature, K wide à Handled for material 2 by shi ing the mean Component level tes ng used successfully to mi gate material degrada on risk in product
W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Stress Reduc on at the Interfaces
High Modulus Interface High Modulus Edge Frame Quan fy and minimize strain at interface Op ons Yielding limit FEA Design I Design II Results Material A 15 Material A Design 2 Yeild stress 0.9 10 Design 1 0.6 Design 2 5 0.3 Design I Design II
Stress (MPa) 0
0 20 40 60 (MPa) LevelStress 0 Strain (%) -50 -25 0 25 50 75 Yielding limit TemperatureDesign I (C) Design II Matl A Material B Design 1 Material B 20 30 Matl B 15 25 10 20 5
Stress (MPa) Stress 0 15 0 20 40 60 10 Strain (%) 5 0 Stress Level (MPa) LevelStress Materials Designs -50 -25 0 25 50 75 100 Temperature (C)
Explore design-material space to reduce stress at cri cal interface
W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame The Challenges in Building a Plant
Major Considera ons IPA Project Review • Clear Business Case and Alignment • Project Staffing • Site Selec on • Permi ng • Front End Loading • Subject Ma er Expert Input • Risk Assessment & Mi ga on Planning • IPA Project Reviews • Es ma ng and Schedule Management • Construc on Safety Management • Start Up Budget and Staffing Plan 1.2 Determine Size and Risk Sweet Risk • Larger capacity of first plant means: Spot $250 to – Low module cost -Lower flexibility $500MM – Standardiza on -Higher capital
-Higher risk Cost $ per wa -Higher base cost 0.7 50 Capacity (MW) 750 W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Intellectual Property Strategy – A Must
Over 2,800 Solar Claims Allowed In 2008 $$$ No FTO No IP Strategy License Fee Law Suits Lost Revenue Lost Capital
For a single product, Freedom to Operate and IP Requirements include: 30-40 patents 5 man years or more of effort $650MM in filing and Freedom to Operate $10MM in Maintenance Fees over 20 Years
W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame What Else Can Go Wrong?
Economy Changes Unplanned Codes Change Incen ves change Events Raw Material Supply
• Redesign Risk Assessment • Retool • Ra onalize 5 4 Launch? 3 Impact 2 • Verify 1 • De-Risk FMEA 1 2 3 4 5 • Cer fy Failure Modes & Effect Analysis Frequency
0 months 3 months 6 months
W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame 30 Alterna ve Sources
Silicon Based Solar Dow PV Encapsulants & Backsheets • UV resistance • Electrical resis vity • Reduced water transmission • Feedstock Op ons • Chemical stability $500 MM/year market 30% annual growth $1B by 2011 • Adhesive • Po ng Agents
• Adhesive/Sealant Silicones: Durable & Transparent Crystalline Polysilicon Cells • Frame sealing/bonding • 6 decades of proven performance • Structural bonding • World class IP • Junc on box po ng agents • HSC is leading world supplier • Adhesives • Encapsula on $3,200 MM/year market 20% annual growth W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame “Coming to a Roof Near You” The Challenge of Taking a New Idea into a Commercial Business The Story of the Dow POWERHOUSE® Solar Shingle
William F. Banholzer Execu ve VP and Chief Technology Officer The Dow Chemical Company March 2010 W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Abstract
The crea on of a financially successful product or process from an inven ve idea is quite complex. In this talk, the challenge of managing Dow’s $1.7 billion R&D budget, including project selec on, risk management, and por olio op miza on, will be addressed. The DOW POWERHOUSE™ Solar Shingle ( h p://www.dowsolar.com/ ) is a case study that illustrates the mul tude of decisions required to commercialize a new energy product. Managing the technical, market and supply chain risks and working with government and industry programs and codes are among the topics that will be discussed.
W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame Deciding What to Work On
What is the material & energy balance? What is the cost? Is it sustainable? Have we defined proper control volumes? What are the TECHNICAL risks? MARKET risks?
• Once you decide on a pathway – • failure is NOT an op on!
For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public rela ons, for Nature cannot be fooled. - Richard Feynman
W Banholzer 2012 Reilly Lecture Notre Dame