Urbanization and Development Policy Lessons from the BRICS Experience

Human Settlements DiScussion PaPer : December 2012 Urbanization and development Policy lessons from the BRICS experience Gordon mcGranahan and George martine www.iied.org urbanization anD DeveloPment i Policy lessonS from tHe BRICS exPerience About the authors Gordon mcGranahan is a Principal researcher in the Human Settlements Group at IIED. e-mail: [email protected] George martine is an independent researcher specialising in urbanization, poverty and environment topics. e-mail: [email protected] Acknowledgements this paper draws heavily on the work of the authors of the country papers listed in the further reading section on page 25. this research was part-funded by UNFPa and part-funded by uK aid from the uK Government, however, the views expressed are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of the uK Government or UNFPa. Published by IIED, December 2012 mcGranahan, G., martine, G. Urbanization and development: Policy lessons from the BRICS experience. IIED Discussion Paper. international institute for environment and Development, london. iSBN 978-1-84369-898-2 http://pubs.iied.org/10622IIED Printed on 100 per cent recycled paper, with vegetable-based inks. international institute for environment and Development 80-86 Gray’s inn road, london Wc1x 8nH, uK t: +44 (0)20 3463 7399 f: +44 (0)20 3514 9055 www.iied.org introDuction Introduction Urbanization and urban growth are intricately intertwined with economic growth — and the BRICS are no exception. The BRICS’ vastly different individual experiences of ‘urban transition’ offer inspiring examples of how to seize urbanization’s opportunities, but also lessons on the pitfalls and problems inappropriate policies can bring. I 1 urbanization anD DeveloPment i Policy lessonS from tHe BRICS exPerience This Discussion Paper is part of a collaborative review of ‘Urbanization in the BRICS’ by IIED and UNFPA. The review aims to gauge urbanization’s role in the development efforts of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa and to identify the key policy implications for other developing countries. This project builds on our collaboration in preparing the UNFPA’s report State of the World Population 2007: unleashing the potential of urban growth, and on related research summarised in the book The New Global Frontier: urbanization, poverty and environment in the 21st century (Martine, McGranahan, Montgomery and Fernandez-Castilla (eds) 2008, Earthscan, London). Researchers prepared case studies (see Further reading on page 26) that examined how the speed and character of each country’s urban trajectory has influenced both past developments and future prospects. A further study is in preparation, focusing on how China’s approach to urban development has at once underpinned China’s economic success, and constrained attempts to achieve more socially and environmentally harmonious development. Other outputs from the project include: Learning from Urbanization in the BRICS, a IIED/UNFPA technical briefing published in December 2012, and a book planned for late 2013. The entire developing world is in the midst of a global urban the share of the population living in urban localities grows, often transition that, together with economic globalisation, is shifting sharply. This ‘urban transition’ process parallels the better- the economic loci of development. Economic power is drifting known ’demographic transition’, in which mortality and fertility southward, most notably towards the large and emerging rates both tend to fall as countries achieve economic success. economies of the ‘BRICS’: Brazil, Russia, India, China and The BRICS yield up some inspiring examples of how to seize South Africa. The BRICS’ integration into the world economy the opportunities that urbanization can provide, and how to has been well-scrutinised but the specific role urbanization pursue inclusive urban development. They also highlight the and urban growth processes played in these countries’ recent problems inappropriate policies bring. All these countries have economic and demographic transformation is still understudied gone through difficult periods during their urban transitions, and undervalued. and several still bear heavy burdens of past failures to process Examining these diverse urban transitions yields some powerful urban growth equitably and efficiently. lessons for other developing countries. This paper discusses The way urban growth is accommodated has enormous the individual experiences of each BRICS country, drawing out economic, social and environmental consequences. Cities issues other countries may face. have huge potential to ensure those consequences are History shows that as economic activity becomes more advantageous but making that happen demands an appropriate concentrated in some places, and as a country’s income rises, policy framework. The overriding lesson is that cities and nations must plan for inevitable urbanization, so as not to be left with an enduring legacy of inequalities and lost opportunities. 2 I introDuction Urban transitions amongst the BRICS The BRICS have long had imposing geography and Africa were comparatively early urbanizers, with roughly half demographics. Together, they account for around 29 per cent of their populations living in urban areas by 1960. Since then, of the world’s land area and they still account for 42 per cent Brazil has shown the most rapid urbanization, South Africa of world population, despite a slow decline in their population urbanized very slowly and then picked up in the 1990s with share. Recently, their economies have also begun to impose on the end of apartheid, while Russia urbanized steadily until the the world stage. Led by China, the BRICS countries accounted dissolution of the Soviet Union, and since has hardly urbanized for about 47 per cent of real growth in the gross world product at all. China and India had far lower levels of urbanization in between 2000 and 2010 (World Bank Development Data Group 1960, and they continued to urbanize slowly until the 1980s, 2011, using GDP in constant 2005 dollars at purchasing power when India’s rate of urbanization began to increase somewhat, parity). As a result, their combined share of gross world product and China’s took off. increased from 17 to 26 per cent. Their economic importance Rapid urbanization in the BRICS has generally been associated is expected to increase further in the coming years. Four of the with economic growth and a shift out of agriculture, while BRICS were listed in the planet’s ten biggest economies in 2010 sudden declines in urbanization rates have been associated and they are all expected to raise their ranking. with economic and social disruption. Nevertheless, BRICS The interdependence between urbanization and modern governments have often been very ambivalent about urbanization economic growth is well recognised, and urbanization and have even caused some of the interruptions, as with South processes have played crucial roles in the BRICS’ economic Africa during apartheid or China during the Cultural Revolution. ascension. Yet their urbanization trajectories differ vastly from Each also has somewhat different lessons to teach us about the one another. Figure 1 shows how Brazil, Russia and South opportunities and risks that urbanization can bring. Figure 1. Urbanization levels of BRICS countries 1950–2010 90 Brazil 80 70 Russia 60 South Africa 50 China 40 30 India Urbanization level 20 10 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: United Nations Population Division, World Urbanisation Prospects: The 2011 Revision I Brazil IV South Africa Rapid but resisted urbanization Apartheid’s urban controls and fragmented cities Page 4 Page 16 II China V India A delayed and then frenetic urban transition Ambivalence to urbanization makes for an uncertain future Page 8 Page 20 III Russia VI Conclusions Misplaced urbanization brings dislocation Accommodating urbanization and urban growth Page 12 efficiently and equitably Page 23 I 3 urbanization anD DeveloPment i Policy lessonS from tHe BRICS exPerience Brazil: rapid but resisted urbanization Brazil has more of its total population living in towns and cities than do most European countries. Yet Brazil’s leaders have often resisted urbanization, and previous governments’ failure to plan ahead created deep social and environmental problems. This thorny legacy has been too big to swiftly eradicate, even with Brazil’s highly regarded and much-copied pioneering city reforms. 4 I brazil: raPiD but reSiSteD urbanization i i By comparison to most other countries outside the ‘first’ or the trigger for Brazil’s rapid urbanization, took off after the ‘developed’ world, Brazil has urbanized quickly and massively. coffee economy crashed in 1929. By now, Brazil had rapid By 1950, urbanization had reached 36.2 per cent (Africa demographic growth, driven by falling mortality. Unable to and Asia reached comparable levels only in 2000 — at pay international debts or to import supplies, Brazil began 34.5 per cent and 37.1 per cent respectively). Brazil now producing industrial goods in the cities. This created a labour has a larger share of its total population living in towns and market, and started Brazil’s concentration of population cities than do most European countries. At the last count in ever-larger cities. But it was not enough to absorb the (the 2010 Demographic Census), over 84 per cent of its demographic surplus, and so migrants also moved to frontier population resided

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