Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences (PJSS) Vol. 31, No. 2 (December 2011), pp. 273-298

Degree of Migration and its Way: A Case Study of Potwar

Zafar Jamal Ph.D Scholar, Department of Economics, The Islamia University of , Bahawalpur

Muhammed Ashraf, PhD Former Chairman, Department of Economics, The Islamia University of Bahawalpur, Bahawalpur

Abstract Migration both in and out of the county has been playing an imperative function in reshaping the dimensions of distribution as well as redistribution of human settlement. Since independence in 1947 till now, has been receiving a huge number of migrants from neighboring countries. These immigrants have added considerably to urbanization and growth of population in Pakistan, particularly in the Punjab and provinces.

Keywords: Potwar; Migration; Immigrants; Immigration Population; In-migration; Out-migration; ; ; Attock; Chakwak; ; Punjab; KPK; Sindh; Balochistan; Development

I. Introduction The significance of migration towards influencing growth as well as downfall of people and in the modification of demographic features of the origin region and destination region has been acknowledged since long Henery &, Jacab, (1975). Economic and social circumstances of the area also affect pattern of migration in respect of their size, source, and destination. There is a especially close relationship amongst mortality, fertility, size and structure of population, migration as well as economic development along with factors such as political environment and natural calamities in the areas Bouge and Zachariah (1962). Migration causes many changes both negative and positive in socio- economic and political fabrics. The migration inclinations of people towards Potwar area have been affected by three main historical phenomenons. First of all, division of sub-continent followed by creation of Pakistan as sovereign country in the year 1947 culminated in the immigration of more than 1, 00,000 people from to Potwar area G.O.P (1961) and Abbasi (1987). Shifting of capital in 1959 from to Islamabad was the second socio- economic/political phenomenon. The Soviet Union invasion of in 1980 was the third main political factor had become the major cause of migration of round one hundred thousand refugees from Afghanistan to Potwar region Population Census Organization, G.O.P (2005). Though, the refugees have got themselves settled in all parts of Pakistan, a considerably huge quantity of them have been inhibiting in rural as well as urban localities of Potwar region, East West Population Institute, (1982).

In addition to migration as main causes of reshaping the size of population, births and deaths too have played a significant part in the demographic history of Potwar. There are three forms of migration i.e. (i) inter districts (ii) inter provinces and (iii) immigration to 274 Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences Vol. 31, No. 2 abroad, Ansly and Demny (1966). As a result, the current trend of migration includes peoples’ movement from one to another district within area of Potwar and rest of the country. II. Pattern and Inclination of Migration According to the census of 1961, net migration recorded from the Potwar area was -120.952 thousand persons. Inflow and outflow, figure-wise considerably high, were 106.599 and 227.551 thousands persons correspondingly, which show that a higher number of families and areas were open to ‘push and pull’ factors which, in it turn means important alterations in social and economic conditions of the affected areas plus households are revealed in (Addendum-I & III) . Outflow current was more than the inflow, to the extent of -120.952 thousand persons as shown in Table-1

Table 1 Potwar: Migration Pattern (1961, 1981 & 1998) Population in (000)

S.NO Census In-migration Out-Migration Net Inter-censal Year migration 1 1961 106.599 227.551 -120.952 2 1981 522.231 544.827 -22.596 3 1998 1293.081 241.187 1051.894 Source: Population Census Organization 1961, 1981 & 1998 Censuses Reports of Pakistan, , Islamabad.

The number of persons getting in and out of the area under study during the period i.e. 1961-81 was higher than the number observed in the year 1961. Whereas immigration recorded a five time growth over the last level recorded in 1961. Out migration grew two times only but it was still larger than immigration in total terms of -22.596 thousand people. Hence, the tendency of pre-1961 was upheld, although loss in the population rate slashed owing to out-migration. The period from 1981 to 1998 saw turnaround of immigration tendency, whereas number of immigration in the year 1998 was more than double than in the year 1981. Out-flow number was of the last level in the year1981, culminating in total inflow of 1051.894 thousand people, which was above the off-set of total outflow of last a few years (Fig-1).

Fig-1: Migration Pattern (1961, 1981 & 1998)

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0 1961 1981 1998 -200 Cens us Year In M igration Out M igration Source: Table-1 Net Inter-censal M igration

Zafar Jamal, Muhammed Ashraf 275 a. Intent of out Migration From the year 1981 to 1998 the intent of the out-migrants from Potwar is significant. As mentioned in Table-2, migrants from Potwar region were brought down in 72 districts of the country in 1981 whereas similar number of migrants recorded in 1998 was 112. In 1981, the district located in the province of KPK was the single highest receiver of out-migrants of Potwar are given away in (Addendum–III & IV), whilst similar position was upheld by the district of in the province of Punjab. Data of Karachi in the province of Sindh and in the province of Balochistan has been given in Table -2 and shown in Fig-2.

Table 2 Potwar: Province Wise Distribution of Out –Migrants (1981 & 1998) S. No Administrative Unit Out- Migrants Population in (000) Population & Population & Percentage -1981 Percentage -1998 1. Punjab 227.727 145.222 (48.18) (60.21) 2. Sindh 133.804 78.087 (28.29) (32.37) 3. KPK 94.252 11.594 (19.92) (4.80) 4. Balochistan 17.100 6.284 (3.61) (2.62) Total 472.883 241.187 (100.00) (100.00) Source: .Population Census Organization 1981 & 1998, Census Reports of Punjab, KPK., Sindh and Balochistan, Government of Pakistan, Islamabad

Fig-2: Province Wise Distribution of Out –Migrants (1981 & 1998)

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60.21 60

1981 1998 50 48.18

40 32.37 30 28.29 Percentage 19 . 9 2 20

10 4.8 3.61 2.62 0 Punjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan Administrative Unit Source: Table-2

276 Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences Vol. 31, No. 2 b. Mechanisms of Internal Migration The escalation of out-migrants from the area of Potwar in the year 1988 was much more than in the year 1981. Related proportions of various districts also noticed modification in the census held in 1998. The related proportion of the lead i.e. , Abbottabad and in out-migrants from Potwar region noticed a big downfall from 1981 to 1998. The same was the case with Karachi. However, average proportion of the districts of , and scaled down during the period from 1981 to 1998 as exhibited in Table -3 and Fig-3 and also shown in (Addendum–IV).

Table 3 District Wise Distribution of Out Migrants (1981 & 1998) S. No Administrative Units Out-Migration Population in (000) Population & Population & Percentage (1981) Percentage (1998) 1 Abbottabad 34.793 7.079 (7.35) (2.93) 2 Peshawar 29.286 8.390 (6.19) (3.47) 3 Kohat 23.049 0.192 (4.87) (0.07) 4 Sargodha 24.972 14.482 (5.28) (6.00) 5 Faisalabad 16.246 8.722 (3.43) (3.67)) 6 Gujranwala 19.081 19.021 (4.02) (7.88) 7 Gujrat 17.683 12.188 (3.74 (5.05) 8 Sialkok 21.978 10.318 (4.65) (4.27) 9 Lahore 51.712 33.196 (10.93) (13.76) 10 19.163 0.994 (4.05) (0.41) 11 14.934 0.408 (3.15) (0.16) 12 Dadu 5.729 4.332 (1.21) (1.80) 13 Hyderabad 8.270 10.761 (1.74) (4.46) 14 Karachi division 104.559 32.524 (22.11) (13.50) 15 Quetta 6.668 1.069 (1.4) (0.66) 16 All other districts 74.760 76.971 (17.27) (31.91) Total 472.883 241.187 (100.00) (100.00) Source: As cited at table 2.

Zafar Jamal, Muhammed Ashraf 277

Fig-3: District Wise Distribution of Out Migrants(1981 & 1998)

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Administr ative Units Source:Table-3

c. Directions of Internal Migration and Immigration District of Rawalpindi received biggest quantity of immigrants in Potwar area at the ratio of 59.8 % in the year 1981 as well as 53.24 % in the year 1998 are shown in (Addendum–I & II). The corresponding number of the district of Islamabad is 24.51 % in the year 1981 and 32.07 % in the year 1998. According to the census of 1998 the districts of Islamabad and Rawalpindi were responsible for more than 85 % of entire in- migration into Potwar region both from inside as well as outside of Pakistan. There are many factors that elucidate this focus. Soon after partition of sub-continent in 1947, Rawalpindi got a huge proportion of refugees from India, Gosal (1961). Later, the transferring of capital from the of Karachi to Islamabad and also developmental activities that were carried out there as well as immigration of Afghan refugees in enormous number have been the main factors, as given in detail in Table-4 and shown on Fig-.4.

Table 4 Potwar : District Wise Internal Migration & Immigrants (1981 & 1998) Population in (000) Administrative Population & Population & Population & Units Percentages of Percentages of Percentages of total Internal Migrants Immigrants Migrants 1981 1998 1981 1998 1981 1998 Rawalpindi 247.115 581.554 60.786 129.250 307.901 710.804 (59.08) (53.24) (58.45) (64.37) (58.97) (54.98) Jhelum 45.415 50.810 24.527 15.094 69.942 65.904 (10.85) (4.65) (23.58) (7.52) (13.39) (5.70) Attock 23.236 82.558 80.08 6.368 31.244 88.926 (5.56) (7.56) (7.71) (3.18) (5.98) (6.87) - 27.141 - 2.575 - 29.716 (2.48) (1.28) (2.29) Islamabad 102.473 350.237 10.671 47.494 113.144 397.731 (24.51) (32.07) (10.26) (23.65) (21.66) (30.75) Potwar 418.239 1092.3 103.992 200.781 522.231 1293.804 (100.00) (100.00) (100.00) (100.00) (100.00) (100.00) Source: Population Census Organization 1981 & 1998, Districts Census Reports of Rawalpindi,, Jhelum, Attoct, Chakwal and Islamabad, Government of Pakistan, Islamabad

278 Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences Vol. 31, No. 2

Fig-4: District Wise International Migration & Immigrants (1981 &1998)

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60 M igrants 1981 In M igrants 1981 Out 50 M igrants 1998 In M igrants 1998 Out

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0 Rawalpindi Jhelum Attock Chakwal Islamabad

Adminis trative Units Source:Table-4

d. Sex Composition of Migrants The ratio of male/female, as documented for internal migrants as well as immigrants, is very larger than parallel ratios of entire population taken generally. In general, the process of adjustment in a new environment takes a long time. Most of in- migrants particularly those from within Pakistan as well as bordering countries may transfer their families to new houses, G.O.P (1998).

Sex pattern of permanent in-migrants at level of district is mostly similar to that of the regional pattern. Sex-ratio points out the males’ surplus in migrants during two periods under reference in entire districts. The city of Islamabad has shown the maximum proportion of sex immigrants i.e., 156 whereas the district of Attock has shown the lowest i.e., 109 in 1981. As against it, the order of sex ratio totally changed in 1998 and the district of Chakwal registered higher figure in population of male and female 340 than the district of Rawalpindi i.e., 146. The sex ratio of immigrants in the district of Jhelum was registered during the same census year According to the Population Census Organisation, 1981 internal migration of male population in district of Attock was 13.676 thousand and female population was 9.560 thousand. Male and female population of internal migrants in was 25.192 & 20.223 thousands respectively It shows that the internal migration in to the districts of Attock, Jhelum and Islamabad have been lesser than the migration in to Rawalpindi city.

In 1998, male and female ratio of in-migrants in the district of Attock was 140 with equivalent figure for Islamabad 128 whereas district of Rawalpindi with the ration of 111 was left behind. Districts wise detail of internal migration by sex of for the years 1981 & 1998 are given in Table-5 and also depicted in Fig.5.& 5.1.

Zafar Jamal, Muhammed Ashraf 279 Table 5 Potwar: District Wise Sex Composition and Sex Ratio of Internal Migrants (1981 &1998) Population in (000) Administrative Population & Population & Population & Units Percentages of Percentages of Percentages of total Internal Migrants Immigrants Migrants 1981 1998 1981 1998 1981 1998 Female Rawalpindi 105.284 276.025 25.306 52.540 130.590 328.565 (59.18) (54.58) (58.97) (62.85) (59.14) (55.75) Jhelum 20.223 26.421 9.616 7.935 29.839 34..356 (11.36) (5.22) (22.10) (9.49) (13.54) (5.83) Attock 9.560 34.379 3.817 2.845 13.377 37.224 (5.37) (6.81) (8.89) (3.43) (6.05) (6.33) Chakwal - 15.186 - 0.584 - 15.770 (3.00) (0.69) (2.67) Islamabad 42.808 153.697 4.171 19.683 46.979 173.380 (24.09) (30.39) (9.74) (23.54) (21.27) (29.42 Potwar region 177.875 505.708 42..910 83.587 220.785 589.295 (100.00) (100.00) (100.00) (100.00) (100.00) (100.00) Male Rawalpindi 141.831 305.529 35.480 76.710 177.311 382.239 (59.01) (52.10) (58.09) (65.46) (58.84) (54.33) Jhelum 25.192 24.389 14.911 7.159 40.103 31.548 (10.48) (4.15) (24.41) (6.11) (13.30) (4.48) Attock 13.676 48.179 4.191 3.523 17.867 51.702 (5.68) (8.21) (6.86) (3.00) (5.92) (7.34) Chakwal - 11.955 - 1.991 - 13.946 (2.04) (1.69) (1.98) Islamabad 59.665 196.540 6.500 27.811 66.165 224.351 (24.83) (33.50) (10.64) (23.74) (21.91) (31.87) Potwar region 240.364 586.592 61.082 117.194 301.446 703.786 (100.00) (100.00) (100.00) (100.00) (100.00) (100.00) Sex Ratio Rawalpindi 135 111 140 146 136 116 Jhelum 124 92 155 90 134 92 Attock 143 140 109 124 134 139 Chakwal - 79 - 340 - 88 Islamabad 139 128 156 141 141 129 Potwar region 135 116 142 140 231 119 Source: As cited at table-4

280 Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences Vol. 31, No. 2

Fi g-5: District Wise Female Composition of Internal Migration & Immigrants (1981 & 1998)

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0 1981 1998 1981 1998 1981 1998

Internal Migrant Immigrants Total Migrants

So urce: Tab le-5 Rawalpindi Jhelum Attock Chakwal Islamabad

Fig-5.1: District Wise Male Composition of Internal Migrations & Immigrants (1981 & 1998)

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So urce: Tab le-5 Rawalp ind i Jhelum Attock Chakwal Is la ma b a d

e. Inter-Districts Migrant and Relative Incidence Rate Migration allocation could be either high or small as compared to the size of population of any area. To have a relative analysis of districts, both in and out migrants relating their entire population, Table - 6 indicated an Index Relative Representation (IRR). The index examines the proportion in the inter-provincial in-out migrants. For completion of IRR, the percentage proportion of immigrants (in and out) to the tune of 100 times is considered by researchers in every province or region (times l00). The IRR of above hundred (100) means that, comparatively proportion of in-out migration of province is beyond its presentation in the populations of the country, Michael (1975). Whereas, Khan (1983) has argued that if IRR below hundred (100) replicates that in-out migration of province is below its representation in the population of the country or region. Zafar Jamal, Muhammed Ashraf 281 f. Index of Relative Representation The IRR of migrants (in and out) is considered by population of each region. The IRR of above 100 signifies that the comparative proportion of both in and out migration of a district is above its representation in population of the relevant district. The IRR of less than 100 implies the opposite are depicted in (Addendum-I & IV).

In 1981, the city of Islamabad recorded the maximum IRR of in-migrants 306, while district of Attock got this position with regard to out-migrants 127.9. The capital city of Islamabad was at the top in 1998 with IRR of 283.8, whereas the district of Jhelum got the leading position with regard to out-migrants with IRR of 207.9 in 1998, as given in Table-6 and depicted in Fig-.6.

Table 6 Potwar: District Wise Population Size and Share of Life-Time In & Out Migrants (1981 &1998) Population in (000) Admin. Pop. Migrants 1981 Migrants Pop. Migrants 1998 Migrants relative Unit 1981 relative Index 1998 Index of of Representation Representation (1998) (1981) In Out In Out In Out In Out Rawalpindi 2121.450 31.244 194.346 134.5 81.5 1083.725 710.804 88.119 380.2 250.9 (58.97) (35.67) (14.51) (54.99) (36.55) Jhelum 1434.612 69.942 208.658 45.6 126.9 936.957 65.904 62.674 41.9 207.3 (13.39) (38.29) (12.55) (5.09) (25.98) Attock 876.667 31.244 129.430 31.8 127.9 1274.935 88.926 36.038 41.1 87.6 (5.98) (23.77) (17.10) (6.88) (14.95) Chakwal - - - - - 3363.911 29.716 43.940 5.4 42.1 (45.06) (2.29) (18.21) Islamabad 340.286 113.144 12.393 306.9 31.2 805.235 397.731 10.387 283.8 40.3 (21.66) (2.27) (10.78) (30.75) (4.31) Potwar 4773.015 522.231 544.827 7464.763 1293.081 241.187 (100.00) (100.00) (100.00) (100.00) (100.00) Source: As cited at table-4

Fig-6: District Wise Population Size and Share of Life-Time In & Out M igrants (1981 &1998)

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60 M igrants 1981 In M igrants 1981 Out M igrants 1998 In M igrants 1998 Out 50

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0 Rawalpindi Jhelum Atto ck Chakwal Islamabad Administrative Units

Source: Table-6

282 Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences Vol. 31, No. 2 g. Year Wise Period of Life Time Migrants in Urban and Rural Areas of Potwar (1981 & 1998) The statistics of the length of constant dwelling at places of enumeration facilitate to aforesaid analysis as shown in Table–7. Above fifty percent of permanent migrants in the region of Potwar were residing at areas of enumeration beyond 11 years. As anticipated, majority of the migrants in two smaller districts is of short length, the overturn is correct in regard of two big districts as shown in (Addendum-VI). While duration of eleven years is kept out of the statistics, as shown in the section two of Table 7, variation of aforesaid inter-districts mostly vanish Fig.-.7, 7.1 & 7.2 This verifies that exclusive of migrants of long durations, (most of whom being immigrants) migration in Potwar region is getting impetus recently.

Table 7 Year Wise Urban & Rural Duration of Life-Time Migrants in Potwar (1998) Year wise Migrants (1998) duration of Population in (000) continuous Rawalpindi Jhelum Attock Chakwal Islamaad Potwar residence 5-Year 269.533 20.296 51.162 14.408 440.178 495.577 (37.91) (30.80) (57.53) (48.49) (35.24) (38.32) 10-Years 105.009 7.495 11.513 4.339 68.864 197.220 (14.77) (11.37) (12.95) (14.60) (17.31) (15.26) 11-Years & 336.262 38.113 26..251 10.969 188.689 600.284 above (47.32) (57.83) (29.52) (36.91) (47.45) (46.42) Total 710.804 65.904 88.926 29.716 188.689 1293.081 (54.96) (5.13) (6.87) (2.29) (30.75) (100.00) Urban 5-Year 247.567 15.429 32.086 3.128 105.778 403.988 (38.95) (32.84) (54.47) (36.41) (33.84) (38.01) 10-Years 95.650 5.229 8.424 1.531 50.276 161.110 (15.06) (11.13) (14.30) (17.82) (16.08) (15.16) 11-Years & 292.325 26.322 18.387 3.933 156.586 497.553 above (45.99) (56.03) (31.23) (45.77) (50.08) (46.83) Total 635.542 46.980 58.897 8.592 312.640 1062.651 (59.80) (4.42) (5.54) (0.80) (29.44) (100.00) Rural 5-Year 21.966 4.867 19.076 11.280 34.400 91.589 (29.19) (25.71) (63.54) (53.39) (40.42) (39.75) 10-Years 9.359 2.266 3.089 2.808 18.588 36.110 (12.44) (11.97) (10.28) (13.29) (21.84) (15.67) 11-Years & 43.937 11.791 7.864 7.036 32.103 102.731 above (58.37) (62.32) (26.18) (33.34) (37.72) (44.58) Total 75.262 18.924 30.029 21.124 85.091 230.430 (32.66) (8.23) (13.03) (9.16) (36.92) (100.00) Source: As cited at table 4

Zafar Jamal, Muhammed Ashraf 283

Fi g-7: Year Wise Continuous Duration of Life-Time Migrants in Urban & Rural Areas of Potwar (1998)

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0 Rawal pi ndi Jhel um Attock Chakwal Isl amaad Potohar Urban and Rural Migrants in (1998)

Source: Table-7 5-Year 10-Years 11-Years & above

Fig-7.1: Year Wise Duration of Life-Time Migrants in Urban Areas (1998) 60

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0 Rawalpindi Jhelum At t ock Chakwal Islamaad Pot ohar

Urban Migrants in (1998)

Source: Table-7 5-Year 10 - Y e a r s 11- Y e a r s & a b o v e

Fig-7.2: Year Wise Duration of Life-Time Migrants in Rural Areas of Potwar (1998)

70 5-Year 10 - Y e a r s 11-Years & above 60

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0 Rawal pi ndi Jhel um Attock Chakwal Isl amaad Potohar

Rural Migrants in (1998) Source: Table-7

284 Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences Vol. 31, No. 2 h. Investigation of Migrations Classification The province of the Punjab is the only biggest province that is receiving migrants from all over the country and sending them to Potwar region. District of Rawalpindi in Potwar region is the only biggest receiver of migrants from other areas of the country and sends them to rest of areas of the country as well as to abroad. A few districts of the country were at the top in the classification of migration according to the census of 1981, but their proportion was significantly below in accordance with census of 1998. Related statistics is presented in Tables -7 & 8 respectively and examined thoroughly as pursue (Addendum–V). i. IN-Migration In 1981, almost 47.72% of entire in-migrants to the region of Potwar had been from the province of the Punjab, which was followed by the province of KPK including FATA 17.81% as well as international immigrants with 13.68%. About 59% of entire in- migrants were in the district of Rawalpindi in 1981. The pattern of 1998 was altogether contrary to it. The province of the Punjab maintained its position with 56.82% proportion. The share of KPK including FATA was 21.02 %, Sindh 5.38% and Balochistan 0.89%. However, the share of international immigrants came down significantly with their proportion of 5.89 % in contrast to 13.68% in 1981. The province of KPK and FATA came out as the second largest pocket of migration to Potwar in 1998. District of Rawalpindi withheld its status as main receiver of in-migrant as depicted in Table 8, shown at Fig 8 & 8.1 and also exposed on (Map – 1 & 2).

Table-8 International & Province Wise Life Time In-Migrants in Potwar (1981 & 1998) Population in (000) Receiving Sending Are 1981 Area Punjab Sindh N.W.F.P & Balochistan AJK & International Not Total FATA N/Area Immigrants Reported Rawalpindi 144.016 6.321 61.683 2.259 17.832 42.954 32.836 307.901 (57.79) (51.65) (66.32) (69.72) (54.83) (60.11 (54.25) (58.95)

Jhelum 30.346 1.816 5.424 0.498 9.597 14.930 7.331 69.942 (12.19) (14.84) (5.83) (15.38) (29.49) (20.89) (12.11) (13.40)

Attock 12.878 0.941 7.138 0.074 0.992 7.016 2.205 31.224 (5.14) (7.68) (7.67) (2.28) (3.04) (9.81) (3.65) (5.95)

Islamabad 61.983 3.161 18.767 0.409 4.115 6.556 18.153 113.144 (24.88) (25.83) (20.18) (12.62) (12.64) (9.19) (29.99) (21.67)

Potwar 249.223 12.239 93.012 3.240 32.536 71.456 60.525 522.231 (47.72) (2.34) (17.81) (0.62) (6.23) (13.68) (11.60) (100.00)

Receiving Sending Are 1998 Area Punjab Sindh N.W.F.P & Balochistan AJK & International Not Total FATA N/Area Immigrants Reported Rawalpindi 383.473 35.835 151.025 7.549 86.484 42.766 3.672 710.804 (52.15) (51.48) (55.51) (64.99) (69.09) (56.59) (78.14) (54.93)

Jhelum 42.689 2.199 5.608 0.308 8.298 6.796 0.006 65.904 (5.80) (3.15) (2.10) (2.65) (6.62) (8.99) (0.13) (5.09) Zafar Jamal, Muhammed Ashraf 285

Attock 45.953 3.751 32..137 0.517 2.553 3.815 0.200 88.926 (6.25) (5.38) (11.82) (4.45) (2.03) (5.05) (4.25) (6.87)

Chakwal 21.109 1.697 4.062 0.273 1.754 0.821 0.821 30.537 (2.89) (2.45) (1.47) (2.36) (1.40) (1.08) (17.48) (2.38)

Islamabad 241..977 26.143 79.148 2.969 26.122 21.372 - 397.731 (32.91) (37.54) (29.10) (25.55) (20.86) (28.29) (30.73)

Potwar 735.201 69.625 271.980 11.616 125.21 75.570 4.699 1293.902 (56.82) (5.38) (21.02) (0.89) 1 (5.84) (0.38) (100.00) (9.67) Source: As cited at table-2 & 4

Fig-8: International & Province Wise Life Time In-Migrants in Potw ar(1981)

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90 Punjab Sindh NWFP & FATA 80 Balochistan AJK & N/Areas 70 International Imgrants Not Reported

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0 Rawalpindi Jhelum Attock Islamabad Potohar Administrative Unit

Source: Table-8

Fig -8.1: International & Province Wise Life Time In-Migrants in Potwar (1998)

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80 Punjab 70 Sindh NWFP & FATA 60 Balochistan 50 AJK & N/Areas Int e r na t io na l Img r a nt s 40 Not Reported

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So urce: Tab le-8 Receiving Areas

286 Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences Vol. 31, No. 2

Zafar Jamal, Muhammed Ashraf 287 j. Out-Migrantion In the flow of out-migration, the only biggest proportion 41.79% was the province of the Punjab in 1981 that grew up to 60.23% in 1998. The province of Sindh ranked at second position with 24.55% in 1981 as well as 32.37% in 1998. The proportion of KPK & FATA jacked down from 17.29% in 1981 and 4.80% in 1998. It is worth-mentioning that in 1981, only 13.21% out-migrants of Potwar region went abroad but no such statistics are available in the census of 1998, as highlighted in Table-9, shown on Fig -9 & 9.1 and also tinted on (Map-3 &.4).

Table-9 International & Province Wise Life Time Out-Migrants from Potwar (1981 &1998) Sending Receiving Area.1981 Area Population in (000) Other Punjab Sindh N.W.F.P Balochistan Total Countries & FATA Rawalpindi 22.611 72.615 47.224 45.797 6.099 194.346 (31.42) (31.88) (35.29) (48.58) (35.66) (35.68) Jhelum 32.103 108.022 38.660 22.235 7.638 208.658 (44.63) (47.43) (28.89) (23.59) (44.66) (38.29) Attock 12.792 44.285 44.288 24.844 3.221 129.430 (17.79) (19.45) (33.09) (26.38) (18.85) (23.75) Islamabad 4.438 2.805 3.632 1.376 0.142 12.393 (6.16) (1.24) (2.73) (1.45) (0.83) (2.28) Potwar 71.944 227.727 133.804 94.252 17.100 544.827 (13.21) (41.79) (24.55) (17.29) (3.16) (100.00) Sending Receiving Area 1998 Area Other Punjab Sindh N.W.F.P Balochistan Total Countries & FATA Rawalpindi - 43.493 37.771 3.816 3.039 88.119 (29.94) (48.37) (32.91) (48.36) (36.53) Jhelum - 50.213 10.546 1.066 0.849 62.674 (34.57) (13.50) (9.19) (13.51) (25.98) Attock - 19.070 14.361 1.451 1.156 36.038 (13.16) (18.39) (12.53) (18.39) (14.94) Chakwal - 29.622 12.117 1.225 0.975 43.940 (20.39) (15.53) (10.57) (15.51) (18.25) Islamabad - 2.824 3.292 4.035 0.265 10.387 (1.94) (4.21) (34.80) (4.23) (4.30) Potwar - 145.222 78.087 11.594 6.284 241.187 (60.23) (32.37) (4.80) (2.60) (100.00) Source: As cited at table-2 & 4

288 Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences Vol. 31, No. 2

Fig-9: International & Province Wise Life Time Out-Migrants from potwar (1981) 60

Rawalpindi Jhelum 50 Attock Islamabad Potohar 40

30

20

10

0 Other Countries Punjab Sindh NWFP & FATA Balochistan Sending Area Source: Table-9 Fig-9.1: International & Province Wise Life Time Out-Migrants from Potwar (1998)

70

60

Ot her count ries 50 Punjab Sindh 40 NWFP & FATA Balochistan

30

20

10

0 Rawalpindi Jhelum A t t ock Chakwal Islamabad Po t ohar Sending Area Source: Table-9

Zafar Jamal, Muhammed Ashraf 289

290 Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences Vol. 31, No. 2 III. Conclusion A conclusion of the study also shows that there had been not only huge in- migration in the district of Rawalpindi but net-migration as well. According to these facts and figures, people want to move back to places of their birth/origin at the culmination of the life cycle. It appears that ever-growing number of out-migration to the province of Sindh as well as in-migration within the twin city i.e. Rawalpindi and Islamabad must be taken into consideration by policy makers as well as planners when making developmental policies for the area. The government should formulate a comprehensive policy regarding migration within the provinces as well as districts. It should initiate development schemes at local levels in order to encourage people to stay at their birth places to avoid fast influx of migration.

Furthermore, the provinces and districts that have gained highest number of migration should have ample opportunities of employment generation. Moreover, civic amenities such as drinking water, electricity, housings, health, education and transport etc should be ensured to migrants and their families. It has been observed that population growth has affected net migration in every province, region and district. Statistics related to demography of an area points out changes on a larger scale in the division of an area. There has been huge migration to the districts of Rawalpindi and Islamabad owing to better civic amenities, more job opportunities and better income sources in comparison to other three districts in the Potwar region namely Attock, Chakwal and Jhelum. Such differences in the provision of basic amenities create forces of ‘Push and Pull’, which causes a huge influx of migration of different kinds. According to the research study, a few main trends of migration have been diagnosed by using data of birth place and migration period taken from census reports of the years 1961, 1981 and 1998.

A number of limitations relating to data sources have limited the research to some extent. The sources provided no statistics regarding factors and causes of migration as well as complete features of migrating persons. Authorities at district and provincial levels have not provided sufficient justification for migration. Owing to insufficient tabulation, the data of migration period could not provide estimation of migrants from rural to urban areas. Census of 1998 gives province-wise birth statistics as well as district-wise breakdown. According to breakdown of general tendencies of migration to the area of Potwar, flow of refugees especially after in the year 1947 is very significant. In the current study, refugees came from India have been termed as immigrants who have traveled into Pakistan with totally different motives as compared to migrations taking place within the country. The option of direction, timing, as well as objective involved in the movements of refugees in relation to in-migration is importantly unusual in the current scenario. District-migration in the Potwar region points out that 56.82% are from the province of Punjab and 21.02% from the province of KPK, while it has been very low with respect of Sindh and Balochistan in between 5.38% to 0.89% according to the census of 1998. Duration of constant dwelling at enumeration places also points out the above-mentioned pattern.

In case of dwelling duration of more than in ten years, the change in four districts vanishes and vast majority of migrants appears to have traveled during the period after 1981. It shows, the areas have been getting growth momentum as a whole in latest years. According to the research, the province of KPK & FATA achieved 17.29% in 1981 and 4.80% in 1998 out of the Potwar out-migrants, while, as against it, migration into the Zafar Jamal, Muhammed Ashraf 291 Potwar region from these areas had been 17.81% in 1981 and 21.02% in year 1998. Migration figures for the province of Sindh have been 24.55% in 1981 and 32.37% in 1998 as well as 2.34% in 198l and 5.38% in 1998 correspondingly. The reality is that the percentage of the Potwar’s migrants in the province of KPK is coming down, while the province of Sindh is having high migration from all over the country due to relatively better jobs opportunities. The province of Sindh has been more active in this regard than the province of KPK. The pull-factor working there is playing a big part in the Potwar’s migrants.

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Henry, S. & Jacob, S. (1975). The methods and materials of Demography. Washington D.C. US Government of Printing Office.

Bogue, D. J. & Zacharial, K. C. (1962). Urbanization migration in India in India Urban future. Bombay.

G.O.P., (1961). Census of Pakistan, Ministry of Home and Kashmir Affairs. Table No. 8, 3, 194-195 & 210-261.

Nasreen, A. (1987). Urbanization in Pakistan 1951-81. Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) Islamabad, Research Report Series No. 152, 40-41.

G.O.P., (2005). Census and Registration of Afghans living in Pakistan’ population. Census Organization Islamabad, 22 & 96-127.

East West Population Institute, (1982). Migration Urban Growth and Development Pakistan. East West Center Honolulu, Hawaii, 9(2), 1-12.

Gosal, G. S. (1961). Internal Migration in India a Regional Analysis India. 36, 106-121.

G.O.P., (1998). District Census Reports Attock, Chakwal, Islamabad, Jhelum and Rawalpindi. Population Census Organization, Islamabad, Table No. 17, 131,135-150.

Michael. G. (1975). Research on Internal Migration in the United States: A Survey. Journal of Economic Literature, 13, 379-433.

Khan, A. (1983), Trends and Patterns of Migration in Pakistan Cairo Demographic Centre. Unpublished M. Phil Thesis, 50-52.

Ansley, J. & Demery, P. (1966). Regional Model life Table and Stable Population. Princeton University press.

292 Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences Vol. 31, No. 2 G.O.P., (1961). Census and Registration of Afghans living in Pakistan. population Census Organization Islamabad, 22 & 96-127.

G.O.P., (1961). Ministry of Home and Kashmir Affairs. Census of Pakistan, 3, 194-195 & 210-261.

G.O.P., (1981). District Census Reports Attock, Islamabad. Jhelum and Rawalpindi. Population Census Organization Islamabad.

G.O.P., (1998). District Census Reports Attock, Islamabad. Jhelum and Rawalpindi. Population Census Organization Islamabad.

G.O.P., (1981). Provincial Census Reports of Punjab, N.W.F.P, Sindh and Blochistan. Population Census Organization Islamabad.

G.O.P., (1998). Provincial Census Reports of Punjab, N.W.F.P, Sindh and Blochistan. Population Census Organization Islamabad.

ADDENDUM- I

POTWAR: IN-MIGRANTS POPULATION (1981) Enumeratio BIRTH PLACE 1981 Population in (000) n Punjab KPK & Sindh Baloch Not Internal AJ & K Northern Other Immigra Grand Total FATA istan Reported Total Areas countri nt Total es Rawalpindi 144.016 61.683 6.321 2.259 32.836 247.115 17.004 0.828 42.954 60.786 307.901 Jhelum 30.346 5.424 1.816 0.498 7.331 45.415 9.258 0.339 14.930 24.527 69.942 Attock 12.878 71.38 0.941 0.074 2.205 23.236 0.992 - 7.016 8.008 31.244 Islamabad 61.983 18.767 3.161 0.409 18.153 102.473 3.783 0.332 6.556 10.671 113.144 Potwar 249.223 93.012 12.239 3.240 60.525 418.239 31.37 1.499 71.456 103.992 522.231 MALE Rawalpindi 82.962 35.617 3.460 1.508 18.284 141.831 10.746 0.579 24.155 35.480 177.311 Jhelum 15.793 3.641 0.994 0.215 4.549 25.192 6.404 0.215 8.292 14.911 40.103 Attock 7.776 3.781 0.805 0.047 12.67 13.676 0.497 - 3.694 4.191 17.867 Islamabad 35.249 11.956 1.721 0.239 10.50 59.665 2.621 0.212 3.667 6.500 66.165 Potwar 141.780 54.955 6.980 2.009 34.600 240.324 20.268 1.006 39.808 61.082 301.446 FEMALE Rawalpindi 61.054 26.066 2.861 0.751 14.552 105.284 6.258 0.249 18.799 25.306 130.590 Jhelum 14.553 1.783 0.822 0.283 2.782 20.223 2.854 0.124 6.688 9.616 29.839 Attock 5.102 3.357 0.136 0.027 0.938 9.560 0.495 - 3.322 3.817 13.377 Islamabad 26.734 6.811 1.440 0.170 7.653 42.808 1.162 0.120 2.889 4.171 46.979 Potwar 107.443 38.017 5.259 1.231 25.925 177.875 10.769 0.493 31.648 42.910 220.785 Source: G.O.P., (1981) Provincial Census Reports of Punjab, Sindh, KPK & Balochistan, Population Census Organization, Islamabad

Zafar Jamal, Muhammed Ashraf 293 ADDENDUM-II POTWAR IN-MIGRANTS POPULATION (1998) Enumeratio BIRTH PLACE Population in (000) n Punjab KPK & Sindh Balochistan Not AJ & K Northern Other Total FATA Reported Areas Countries Rawalpindi 383.473 151.025 35.835 7.549 3.672 84.065 2.419 42.766 710.804 Jhelum 42.689 5.608 2.199 0.308 0.006 8.136 0.162 6.796 65.904 Attock 45.953 32.137 3.751 0.517 0.2 2.444 0.109 3.815 88.926 Chakwal 21.109 4.062 1.697 0.273 0.821 1.679 0.075 0.821 30.537 Islamabad 241.977 79.148 26.143 2.969 - 24.438 1.684 21.372 397.731 Potwar 735.201 271.980 69.625 11.616 4.699 120.762 4.449 75.570 1293.902 MALE Rawalpindi 193.555 84.821 21.338 3.156 2.659 52.349 1.093 23.268 382.299 Jhelum 20.086 3.167 0.986 0.144 0.006 3.495 0.096 3.568 31.548 Attock 27.638 18.171 1.917 0.374 0.079 1.550 0.069 1.904 51.702 Chakwal 9.019 2.22 0.610 0.106 - 1.483 0.067 0.441 13.946 Islamabad 131.862 49.13 13.913 1.635 - 15.458 1.119 11.234 224.351 Potwar 382.160 157.509 38.764 5.415 2.744 74.335 2.444 40.415 703.786 FEMALE Rawalpindi 189.918 66.204 14.497 4.393 1.013 31.716 1.326 19.498 328.565 Jhelum 22.603 2.441 1.213 0.164 - 4.641 0.066 3.228 34.356 Attock 18.315 13.966 1.834 0.143 0.121 0.894 0.04 1.911 37.224 Chakwal 12.09 1.842 1.087 0.167 - 0.196 0.008 0.380 15.77 Islamabad 110.115 30.018 12.230 1.334 - 8.980 0.565 10.138 173.38 Potwar 353.041 114.471 30.861 6.201 1.134 46.427 2.005 35.155 589.295 Source: G.O.P., (1998) Provincial Census Reports of Punjab, Sindh, KPK & Balochistan, Population Census Organization, Islamabad

ADDENDUM-III POTWAR: OUT-MIGRANTS POPULATION (1981) Birth Place ENUMERATION Population in (000) Punjab KPK/ Sindh Balochistan Total Other Revised FATA Countries Total Attock 44.285 24.844 44.288 3.221 116.638 12.792 129.430 Chakwal ------Islamabad 2.805 1.376 3.632 0.142 7.955 4.438 12.393 Jhelum 108.022 22.235 38.660 7.638 176.555 32.103 208.658 Rawalpindi 72.615 45.797 47.224 6.099 171.735 22.611 194.346 Potwar 227.727 94.252 133.804 17.1 472.883 71.944 544.827 Source: As cited at addendum-I

ADDENDUM-IV POTWAR: OUT-MIGRANTS POPULATION (1998) ENUMERATION Birth Population in (000) Place Punjab KPK/ Other Revised FATA Sindh Balochistan Total Countries Total

Rawalpin 43.493 3.816 37.771 3.039 88.119 NA 88.119 di Jhelum 50.213 1.066 10.546 0.849 62.674 NA 62.674 AttocK 19.070 1.451 14.361 1.156 36.038 NA 36.038 Chakwal 29.622 1.226 12.117 0.975 43.940 NA 43.94 Islamabad 2.824 4.035 3.292 0.265 10.387 NA 10.387 Potwar 145.222 11.294 78.087 6.284 241.187 NA 241.187 Source: As cited at addendum-II

294 Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences Vol. 31, No. 2 ADDENDUM-V

POTWAR: NUMER OF OUT-MIGRANTS IN VARIOUS DISTRICTS OF PROVINES OF PAKISTAN (1981-1998)

KPK PROVINCE S.NO DISTRICT OUT-MIGRANTS Population in (000) 1981 1998 1. 0.01 0.01 2. Upper Dir - - 3. Lower Dir 0.117 - 4. Buner - - 5. Swat 0.918 0.811 6. Shangla - - 7. Malakand 0.006 0.002 8. Kohistan 0.065 0.022 9. Batagram - 0.0108 10. 1.406 0.033 11. Abbottabad 34.793 0.0709 12. Haripur - 0.666 13. 1.979 0.065 14. - 0.003 15. - 16. Peshawar 29.286 8.39 17. Nowshera - 0.444 18. Kohat 23.049 0.192 19. Hangu - 0.004 20. Karak - 0.011 21. 1.851 0.03 22. Lakki marwat - 0.08 23. D.I. khan 0.718 0.006 24. Tank - 0.061 Total: 94.252 11.594 Source: As cited at addendum- 1 & II

Zafar Jamal, Muhammed Ashraf 295 PUNJAB PROVINCE S.NO DISTRICT OUT-MIGRANTS Population in (000) 1981 1998 1. 6.36 1.476 2. Sargodha 24.972 14.482 3. Bhakkar - 0.975 4. Khushad - 2.269 5. Faisalabad 16.246 8.722 6. 4.074 3.561 7. T.T. Singh - 0.573 8. Gujranwala 19.081 19.021 9. Hafizabad - 0.714 10. Gujrat 17.683 12.188 11. Mandi Bahauddin - 7.343 12. 21.978 10.318 13. Narowal - 0.797 14. Lahore 51.712 33.196 15. 0.827 2.056 16. Okara - 9.624 17. 6.645 3.438 18. Vehari 4.249 2.343 19. 7.445 1.215 20. Pakpattan - 1.907 21. Multan 19.163 0.994 22. Lodhran - 0.286 23. Khanewal - 2.479 24. D.G. Khan 0.489 0.368 25. Rajanpur - 0.054 26. Leiah - 1.89 27. Muzaffargarh 14.934 0.408 28. Bahawalpur 5.11 0.71 29. Bahawalnagar 2.058 0.371 30. R. Y. Khan 4.701 1.462 TOTAL: 227.727 145.222 Source: As cited at addendum- 1 & II

296 Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences Vol. 31, No. 2 SINDH PROVINCE S.NO DISTRICT OUT-MIGRANTS Population in (000) 1981 1998 1. 1.371 0.537 2. 1.591 2.853 3. 7Shikarpur 0.531 0.765 4. 1.404 2.806 5. - 0.188 6. - 0.468 7. Nausharo Feroze - 0.111 8. Nawab Shah 3.276 4.28 9. Dadu 5.729 4.332 10. Hyderabad 8.27 10.761 11. 2.93 3.067 12. 1.161 2.134 13. Sanghar 1.832 2.154 14. - 0.024 15. Umerkot - 0.139 16. Tharparkar 1.150 1.927 17. Malir - 9.017 18. Karachi-E 38.650 4.879 19. Karachi-W 22.287 10.158 20. Karachi-S 43.622 9.331 21. Karachi-C - 8.156 TOTAL: 133.804 78.087 Source: As cited at addendum- 1 & II

Zafar Jamal, Muhammed Ashraf 297 BALOCHISTAN PROVINCE S.NO DISTRICT OUT-MIGRANTS Population in (000) 1981 1998 1. Quetta 6.668 1.609 2. Pishin 0.652 0.469 3. Qilla Abdullah 0.04 0.112 4. Chagai 0.274 0.3 5. Loralai 3.319 0.607 6. Musakhel - 0.003 7. Barkhan 0.05 0.013 8. Killa Saifullah - - 9. Zhob 0.525 0.472 10. 0.01 0.002 11. Kohlu 1.133 0.181 12. Dera Bugti - 0.029 13. Sibi 0.69 0.5 14. Jafarabad - 0.007 15. Nasirabad 0.267 0.011 16. Jhal Magsi - - 17. Bolan - 0.029 18. Kalat 0.114 0.21 19. Mastung - 0.14 20. 2.243 0.9 21. Awaran - - 22. Kharan 0.105 0.013 23. Lasbela 0.779 0.479 24. Kech (Turbat) 0.109 0.23 25. Panjgur Kateran - 0.004 26. 0.122 0.09 TOTAL: 17.1 6.284 Source: As cited at addendum- 1 & II

298 Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences Vol. 31, No. 2 APPENDIX – VI POTWAR: URBAN & RURAL DURATION OF LIFE-TIME MIGRANTS (1998) Year wise Migrants (1998) duration of Population in (000) continuous Rawalpindi Jhelum Attock Chakwal Islamaad Potohar residence 5-Year 269.533 20.296 51.162 14.408 440.178 495.577

10-Years 105.009 7.495 11.513 4.339 68.864 197.220

11-Years & 336.262 38.113 26..251 10.969 188.689 600.284 above Total 710.804 65.904 88.926 29.716 188.689 1293.081

Urban 5-Year 247.567 15.429 32.086 3.128 105.778 403.988

10-Years 95.650 5.229 8.424 1.531 50.276 161.110

11-Years & 292.325 26.322 18.387 3.933 156.586 497.553 above Total 635.542 46.980 58.897 8.592 312.640 1062.651

Rural 5-Year 21.966 4.867 19.076 11.280 34.400 91.589

10-Years 9.359 2.266 3.089 2.808 18.588 36.110

11-Years & 43.937 11.791 7.864 7.036 32.103 102.731 above Total 75.262 18.924 30.029 21.124 85.091 230.430

Source: As cited at addendum- 1 & II