Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences (PJSS) Vol. 31, No. 2 (December 2011), pp. 273-298 Degree of Migration and its Way: A Case Study of Potwar Zafar Jamal Ph.D Scholar, Department of Economics, The Islamia University of Bahawalpur, Bahawalpur Muhammed Ashraf, PhD Former Chairman, Department of Economics, The Islamia University of Bahawalpur, Bahawalpur Abstract Migration both in and out of the county has been playing an imperative function in reshaping the dimensions of distribution as well as redistribution of human settlement. Since independence in 1947 till now, Pakistan has been receiving a huge number of migrants from neighboring countries. These immigrants have added considerably to urbanization and growth of population in Pakistan, particularly in the Punjab and Sindh provinces. Keywords: Potwar; Migration; Immigrants; Immigration Population; In-migration; Out-migration; Rawalpindi; Jhelum; Attock; Chakwak; Islamabad; Punjab; KPK; Sindh; Balochistan; Development I. Introduction The significance of migration towards influencing growth as well as downfall of people and in the modification of demographic features of the origin region and destination region has been acknowledged since long Henery &, Jacab, (1975). Economic and social circumstances of the area also affect pattern of migration in respect of their size, source, and destination. There is a especially close relationship amongst mortality, fertility, size and structure of population, migration as well as economic development along with factors such as political environment and natural calamities in the areas Bouge and Zachariah (1962). Migration causes many changes both negative and positive in socio- economic and political fabrics. The migration inclinations of people towards Potwar area have been affected by three main historical phenomenons. First of all, division of sub-continent followed by creation of Pakistan as sovereign country in the year 1947 culminated in the immigration of more than 1, 00,000 people from India to Potwar area G.O.P (1961) and Abbasi (1987). Shifting of capital in 1959 from Karachi to Islamabad was the second socio- economic/political phenomenon. The Soviet Union invasion of Afghanistan in 1980 was the third main political factor had become the major cause of migration of round one hundred thousand refugees from Afghanistan to Potwar region Population Census Organization, G.O.P (2005). Though, the refugees have got themselves settled in all parts of Pakistan, a considerably huge quantity of them have been inhibiting in rural as well as urban localities of Potwar region, East West Population Institute, (1982). In addition to migration as main causes of reshaping the size of population, births and deaths too have played a significant part in the demographic history of Potwar. There are three forms of migration i.e. (i) inter districts (ii) inter provinces and (iii) immigration to 274 Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences Vol. 31, No. 2 abroad, Ansly and Demny (1966). As a result, the current trend of migration includes peoples’ movement from one to another district within area of Potwar and rest of the country. II. Pattern and Inclination of Migration According to the census of 1961, net migration recorded from the Potwar area was -120.952 thousand persons. Inflow and outflow, figure-wise considerably high, were 106.599 and 227.551 thousands persons correspondingly, which show that a higher number of families and areas were open to ‘push and pull’ factors which, in it turn means important alterations in social and economic conditions of the affected areas plus households are revealed in (Addendum-I & III) . Outflow current was more than the inflow, to the extent of -120.952 thousand persons as shown in Table-1 Table 1 Potwar: Migration Pattern (1961, 1981 & 1998) Population in (000) S.NO Census In-migration Out-Migration Net Inter-censal Year migration 1 1961 106.599 227.551 -120.952 2 1981 522.231 544.827 -22.596 3 1998 1293.081 241.187 1051.894 Source: Population Census Organization 1961, 1981 & 1998 Censuses Reports of Pakistan, Government of Pakistan, Islamabad. The number of persons getting in and out of the area under study during the period i.e. 1961-81 was higher than the number observed in the year 1961. Whereas immigration recorded a five time growth over the last level recorded in 1961. Out migration grew two times only but it was still larger than immigration in total terms of -22.596 thousand people. Hence, the tendency of pre-1961 was upheld, although loss in the population rate slashed owing to out-migration. The period from 1981 to 1998 saw turnaround of immigration tendency, whereas number of immigration in the year 1998 was more than double than in the year 1981. Out-flow number was of the last level in the year1981, culminating in total inflow of 1051.894 thousand people, which was above the off-set of total outflow of last a few years (Fig-1). Fig-1: Migration Pattern (1961, 1981 & 1998) 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1961 1981 1998 -200 Cens us Year In M igration Out M igration Source: Table-1 Net Inter-censal M igration Zafar Jamal, Muhammed Ashraf 275 a. Intent of out Migration From the year 1981 to 1998 the intent of the out-migrants from Potwar is significant. As mentioned in Table-2, migrants from Potwar region were brought down in 72 districts of the country in 1981 whereas similar number of migrants recorded in 1998 was 112. In 1981, the Abbottabad district located in the province of KPK was the single highest receiver of out-migrants of Potwar are given away in (Addendum–III & IV), whilst similar position was upheld by the district of Lahore in the province of Punjab. Data of Karachi in the province of Sindh and Quetta in the province of Balochistan has been given in Table -2 and shown in Fig-2. Table 2 Potwar: Province Wise Distribution of Out –Migrants (1981 & 1998) S. No Administrative Unit Out- Migrants Population in (000) Population & Population & Percentage -1981 Percentage -1998 1. Punjab 227.727 145.222 (48.18) (60.21) 2. Sindh 133.804 78.087 (28.29) (32.37) 3. KPK 94.252 11.594 (19.92) (4.80) 4. Balochistan 17.100 6.284 (3.61) (2.62) Total 472.883 241.187 (100.00) (100.00) Source: .Population Census Organization 1981 & 1998, Census Reports of Punjab, KPK., Sindh and Balochistan, Government of Pakistan, Islamabad Fig-2: Province Wise Distribution of Out –Migrants (1981 & 1998) 70 60.21 60 1981 1998 50 48.18 40 32.37 30 28.29 Percentage 19 . 9 2 20 10 4.8 3.61 2.62 0 Punjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan Administrative Unit Source: Table-2 276 Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences Vol. 31, No. 2 b. Mechanisms of Internal Migration The escalation of out-migrants from the area of Potwar in the year 1988 was much more than in the year 1981. Related proportions of various districts also noticed modification in the census held in 1998. The related proportion of the lead cities i.e. Peshawar, Abbottabad and Kohat in out-migrants from Potwar region noticed a big downfall from 1981 to 1998. The same was the case with Karachi. However, average proportion of the districts of Gujranwala, Sargodha and Faisalabad scaled down during the period from 1981 to 1998 as exhibited in Table -3 and Fig-3 and also shown in (Addendum–IV). Table 3 District Wise Distribution of Out Migrants (1981 & 1998) S. No Administrative Units Out-Migration Population in (000) Population & Population & Percentage (1981) Percentage (1998) 1 Abbottabad 34.793 7.079 (7.35) (2.93) 2 Peshawar 29.286 8.390 (6.19) (3.47) 3 Kohat 23.049 0.192 (4.87) (0.07) 4 Sargodha 24.972 14.482 (5.28) (6.00) 5 Faisalabad 16.246 8.722 (3.43) (3.67)) 6 Gujranwala 19.081 19.021 (4.02) (7.88) 7 Gujrat 17.683 12.188 (3.74 (5.05) 8 Sialkok 21.978 10.318 (4.65) (4.27) 9 Lahore 51.712 33.196 (10.93) (13.76) 10 Multan 19.163 0.994 (4.05) (0.41) 11 Muzaffargarh 14.934 0.408 (3.15) (0.16) 12 Dadu 5.729 4.332 (1.21) (1.80) 13 Hyderabad 8.270 10.761 (1.74) (4.46) 14 Karachi division 104.559 32.524 (22.11) (13.50) 15 Quetta 6.668 1.069 (1.4) (0.66) 16 All other districts 74.760 76.971 (17.27) (31.91) Total 472.883 241.187 (100.00) (100.00) Source: As cited at table 2. Zafar Jamal, Muhammed Ashraf 277 Fig-3: District Wise Distribution of Out Migrants(1981 & 1998) 35 30 19 8 1 19 9 8 25 20 15 10 5 0 Administr ative Units Source:Table-3 c. Directions of Internal Migration and Immigration District of Rawalpindi received biggest quantity of immigrants in Potwar area at the ratio of 59.8 % in the year 1981 as well as 53.24 % in the year 1998 are shown in (Addendum–I & II). The corresponding number of the district of Islamabad is 24.51 % in the year 1981 and 32.07 % in the year 1998. According to the census of 1998 the districts of Islamabad and Rawalpindi were responsible for more than 85 % of entire in- migration into Potwar region both from inside as well as outside of Pakistan. There are many factors that elucidate this focus. Soon after partition of sub-continent in 1947, Rawalpindi got a huge proportion of refugees from India, Gosal (1961). Later, the transferring of capital from the city of Karachi to Islamabad and also developmental activities that were carried out there as well as immigration of Afghan refugees in enormous number have been the main factors, as given in detail in Table-4 and shown on Fig-.4.