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Asia COVID-19 & Vaccine Tracker 18 June 2021 Free to View Asia COVID-19 & Vaccine Tracker Economics - Asia Waiting to re-open Herd immunity timelines are getting closer and closer in Noelan Arbis Economist Asia, thanks to increased vaccine supplies The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited But pockets of concern still linger in the region, most recently Frederic Neumann in Indonesia and Vietnam Co-Head of Asian Economics Research The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited As many Western economies begin to re-open, much of Asia Maitreyi Das continue to have restrictions in place, dragging down growth Associate Closer to herd immunity Vaccination rates in Asia continue to rise, bringing forward timelines for herd immunity. Based on our estimate, at least 10 economies in the region (from eight a week ago) are now slated to achieve herd immunity by end-2022 (Chart 6). Moreover, mainland China, South Korea, Singapore, Japan, and Hong Kong could achieve herd immunity by year-end, assuming the current pace of vaccinations continues. As herd immunity inches closer, economies with excess vaccine supply are contributing to others in Asia. Japan has committed to donate at least one million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine each to Vietnam and Taiwan. It is also considering donating to Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Malaysia. Mainland China has also agreed to contribute 500,000 Sinovac doses to Malaysia. Vaccine efficacy concerns While things are broadly improving across Asia, there are still some pockets of concern. Indonesia's new cases are on the rise again weeks after the Eid Al-Fitr holidays (Chart 7). Vietnam's cases are also on the rise, most of which are in the business centre of Ho Chi Minh City (Chart 12). More worrying is that both Indonesia and Vietnam have cited the delta variant as the primary cause for the recent wave, bringing into question the efficacy of the vaccines administered in these economies. More than 350 Indonesian doctors have contracted COVID-19 despite being vaccinated with Sinovac. Dozens were reportedly hospitalized with high fever and declining oxygen saturation levels (Reuters, 17 June 2021). In Vietnam, 55 hospital employees tested positive for COVID-19 despite receiving two doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine (Vietnam News, 14 June 2021). The good news is that test results show a low viral load for the positive cases, with no symptoms. Waiting to re-open Despite rising vaccination rates, mobility restrictions remain largely in place across Asia. This is contrary to many Western economies that have managed to ease restrictions significantly in recent weeks. Average non-residential mobility in the US, for instance, is currently 10% above pre-pandemic levels. Mobility in Europe is also on the rise. In Asia, average non-residential mobility is nearly 19% below pre-pandemic levels. These numbers suggest that the economic recovery in Asia is likely to take longer than in many Western economies. This is an abridged version of a report by the same title published on 18-Jun-21. Please contact your HSBC representative or email [email protected] for more information. Disclosures & Disclaimer Issuer of report: The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Research at: https://www.research.hsbc.com Free to View ● Economics - Asia 18 June 2021 Asia COVID-19 and Vaccine Tracker Chart 1: Total confirmed vaccine doses by country and territory (% of population) Most economies have % of population secured enough vaccines to 400 reach herd immunity 300 200 100 0 AU NZ HK SK JN MA SG TA PH TH ID VN **IN *CH BA Oxford University Pfizer Janssen (J &J) Moderna Sinovac Novavax Gamaleya Research CanSino Biologics Bharat Biotech Sinopharm Corbevax Others Note: *CH = mainland China; Duke University's data does not include domestic supply for mainland China (not made publicly available), **Does not include domestic production. Source: Duke University Health Innovation Center, HSBC Chart 2: Vaccinations administered in Asia (per 100 persons) Singapore and mainland 50.0 46.16 43.21 China top the region in 45.0 vaccines administered 40.0 35.0 30.0 24.51 23.89 25.0 20.52 20.0 15.23 15.06 15.0 11.76 10.82 10.61 10.0 7.64 7.09 4.63 4.24 3.54 5.0 1.63 0.0 SI *CH KR HK AU JN IN NZ SL MA ID TH PH TA BA VN Note: *CH = mainland China. Source: Our World in Data, HSBC Chart 3: Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases per 1 million population Confirmed COVID-19 cases No of confirmed cases % (per 1 million people) in Asia 120,000 6.0 remain far below those in Western countries 100,000 5.0 80,000 4.0 60,000 3.0 40,000 2.0 20,000 1.0 0 0.0 US UK IN MA PH SG SL ID JN BA TH SK HK AU TA NZ VN *CH Cases per m Mortality rate Note: *CH = mainland China. Source: CEIC, HSBC 2 Free to View ● Economics - Asia 18 June 2021 Asia COVID-19 and Vaccine Tracker Chart 4: Daily vaccination rate per economy (7-day moving average) 7 dma 7 dma South Korea's daily 20,000,000 800,000 vaccination rate has 18,000,000 700,000 16,000,000 increased substantially in 600,000 recent weeks 14,000,000 12,000,000 500,000 10,000,000 400,000 8,000,000 300,000 6,000,000 200,000 4,000,000 100,000 2,000,000 0 0 CH* IN JN SK ID TH MA PH AU SL SG VN HK TA NZ BA Latest daily doses per m of population 1 week ago Latest daily doses per m of population 1 week ago Source: Our World in Data, HSBC. Note: *CH: Mainland China Chart 5: Daily vaccine rate per million of population Per m 16,000 South Korea now tops the region in daily doses per 14,000 million population 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 SK CH* JN SG HK MA AU SL TH NZ IN TA ID PH VN BA Latest daily doses per m of population 1 week ago Source: Our World in Data, HSBC. Note: *CH: Mainland China Chart 6: Projected timeline for herd immunity (75% of population), given the pace of daily vaccinations *CH The timeline to reach herd SK immunity is moving closer SG for many economies JN HK MA AU SL NZ TH IN ID TA PH VN BA Jan-21 Jul-21 Feb-22 Aug-22 Mar-23 Sep-23 Apr-24 Nov-24 May-25 Dec-25 Source: Our World in Data, HSBC. Note: *Grey indicates economies with herd immunity timelines beyond Dec 2025 3 Free to View ● Economics - Asia 18 June 2021 COVID-19 in Asia Chart 7: Indonesia Chart 8: Malaysia Confirmed cases Malay sia Daily change COVID-19 cases in Indonesia Confirmed cases Indonesia Daily change 2,500,000 18,000 800,000 10,000 are climbing, while 700,000 9,000 Malaysia's cases are 2,000,000 15,000 8,000 600,000 beginning to moderate 12,000 7,000 1,500,000 500,000 6,000 9,000 400,000 5,000 1,000,000 4,000 6,000 300,000 3,000 200,000 500,000 3,000 2,000 100,000 1,000 0 0 0 0 Feb-20 May-13 Aug-04 Oct-26 Jan-17 Apr-10 Feb-20 May-13 Aug-04 Oct-26 Jan-17 Apr-10 Daily change (RHS) Number of confirmed cases Daily change (RHS) Number of confirmed cases Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC Chart 9: Philippines Chart 10: Singapore Confirmed cases Philippines Daily change Confirmed cases Singapore Daily change New daily cases in the 1,400,000 18,000 70,000 1,600 Philippines remain elevated; 1,200,000 16,000 60,000 1,400 cases in Singapore remain 14,000 1,000,000 50,000 1,200 contained 12,000 1,000 800,000 10,000 40,000 800 600,000 8,000 30,000 6,000 600 400,000 20,000 4,000 400 200,000 2,000 10,000 200 0 0 0 0 Feb-20 May-13 Aug-04 Oct-26 Jan-17 Apr-10 Feb-20 May-13 Aug-04 Oct-26 Jan-17 Apr-10 Daily change (RHS) Number of confirmed cases Daily change (RHS) Number of confirmed cases Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC Chart 11: Thailand Chart 12: Vietnam Thailand's cases are Confirmed cases Thailand Daily change Confirmed cases Vietnam Daily change 250,000 12,000 12,000 525 beginning to moderate; 10,000 450 Vietnam's cases are 200,000 10,000 continuing to see spikes 375 8,000 8,000 150,000 300 6,000 6,000 100,000 225 4,000 4,000 150 50,000 2,000 2,000 75 0 0 0 0 Feb-20 May-30 Sep-07 Dec-16 Mar-26 Feb-20 May-13 Aug-04 Oct-26 Jan-17 Apr-10 Daily change (RHS) Number of confirmed cases Daily change (RHS) Number of confirmed cases Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC 4 Free to View ● Economics - Asia 18 June 2021 COVID-19 in Asia Taiwan's daily cases appear Chart 13: Mainland China Chart 14: Taiwan to be moderating Confirmed cases Mainland China Daily change Confirmed cases Taiwan Daily change 120,000 18,000 15,000 1000 100,000 15,000 12,000 800 80,000 12,000 9,000 600 60,000 9,000 6,000 400 40,000 6,000 20,000 3,000 3,000 200 0 0 0 0 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20 Feb-21 May-21 Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 Apr 21 Daily change (RHS) No of confirmed cases Daily change (RHS) No of confirmed cases Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC Chart 15: India Chart 16: Sri Lanka Confirmed cases India Daily change Confirmed cases Sri Lanka Daily change India's new cases continue to 32,000,000 480,000 250,000 4,000 trend downwards; Sri Lanka's 28,000,000 420,000 225,000 3,500 200,000 daily cases remain elevated 24,000,000 360,000 3,000 but are also on a downtrend 175,000 20,000,000 300,000 150,000 2,500 16,000,000 240,000 125,000 2,000 12,000,000 180,000 100,000 1,500 75,000 8,000,000 120,000 1,000 50,000 4,000,000 60,000 25,000 500 0 0 0 0 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20 Feb-21 May-21 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Nov-20 Feb-21 May-21 Daily change (RHS) No of confirmed cases Daily change (RHS) No of confirmed cases Source: CEIC, HSBC Source: CEIC, HSBC Chart 17: Japan Chart 18: South Korea New cases in Japan are Confirmed cases Japan Daily change Confirmed cases South Korea Daily change
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