ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION and CANADA's ENERGY DEBATE: RECONCILING ECONOMIC, ENVIRONMENTAL and POLITICAL AGENDAS? by Jessica
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ECOLOGICAL MODERNIZATION AND CANADA’S ENERGY DEBATE: RECONCILING ECONOMIC, ENVIRONMENTAL AND POLITICAL AGENDAS? by Jessica Bradley Submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts at Dalhousie University Halifax, Nova Scotia April 2019 © Copyright by Jessica Bradley, 2019 TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Figures………………………………………………………………………………….....vi Abstract………………………………………………………………………………………….vii List of Abbreviations Used………………………………………………………………..……viii Acknowledgements……………………………………………………………………………….x Chapter 1: Introduction……………………………………………………………………………1 Ecological Modernisation: Literature review …………………………………….............5 Complementary theoretical perspectives: modernisation theory and sustainable development……………………………………………………………………….6 Central components of EM………………………………………………………..8 Role of technology and economic actors………………………………………...10 Changing roles of the state……………………………………………………….12 EM discourse: embedding social and political ‘storylines’……………………...15 Institutional reflexivity…………………………………………………………...17 Weak vs. strong EM……………………………………………………………...17 Research methods……………………………………………………………………......20 Economic criteria………………………………………………………………...21 Environmental criteria…………………………………………………………...22 Political criteria…………………………………………………………………..23 Chapter outline……………………………………………………………………...........25 Chapter 2: Energy and environmental policymaking in Canada…………………………...........27 Energy policy in Canada…………………………………………………………………27 Climate change Policy in Canada …………………………………………………….....29 History of energy and environmental federalism in Canada …………………………....30 ii Business-as-usual: The Harper era ……………………………………………………...34 Changing narrative: The Trudeau era …………………………………………………...37 Petroleum-centered and green economy visions ………………………………………..39 Perspectives within the Canadian energy debate………………………………………..40 Business-as-usual (BAU)………………………………………………………..41 EM…………………………………………………………………………….....43 Strong EM……………………………………………………………………......45 Green radical ………………………………………………………………….....47 Chapter 3: The Petroleum-centrered vision: Challenges and opportunities…………………......50 The oil sands…………………………………………………………………..................50 Pipeline politics: Trans Mountain and Keystone XL …………………………………....53 Environmental politics in Alberta …………………………………………………….....56 Industry support for environmental legislation………………………………………......59 Technological innovation in the oil sands industry……………………………………...60 Carbon capture and storage (CCS)………………………………………………62 Economic, environmental and political criteria………………………………………….64 Economic criteria………………………………………………………………...64 Environmental criteria…………………………………………………………...67 Political criteria…………………………………………………………………..68 Regional interests and values…………………………………………….69 Distributional effects……………………………………………..……....71 Veto actors……………………………………………………………….73 Competition in contemporary energy federalism………………………..74 iii Historical rigidities………………………………………………………76 Chapter 4: The green economy vision: Challenges and opportunities…………………………..79 Defining a green economy…………………………………………………………….... 79 Provincial initiatives……………………………………………………………………..84 Criticisms of the petroleum centered vision…………………………………………......86 Lack of environmental foresight………………………………………………...86 The cost of inaction……………………………………………………………...86 Green energy revolution…………………………………………………………87 Missed economic opportunities…………………………………………………89 Regional disparity and “Dutch Disease”………………………………………..92 Pipelines: deepening our carbon dependence……………………………………94 Failure to consider First Nations…………………………………………………96 Recommendations from green economy proponents ………………………………......98 Eliminating subsidies……………………………………………………………98 Carbon pricing and regulations………………………………………………....100 Green energy technology and innovation………………………………………102 Economic, environmental and political criteria…………………………………….......103 Economic criteria……………………………………………………………….104 Environmental criteria………………………………………………………….107 Political criteria…………………………………………………………………108 Distributional effects……………………………………………………109 Veto actors……………………………………………………………...111 Historical rigidities……………………………………………………..112 iv Chapter 5: Conclusions……………………………………………………………………........114 Comparing economic challenges and opportunities……………………………………114 Comparing environmental challenges and opportunities…………………………….....118 Comparing political challenges and opportunities………………………………...........123 EM: Reconciling economic, environmental, and political agendas?...............................127 Bibliography………………………………………………………………………………........134 v LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Perspectives within the Canadian energy debate: two visions of energy development……………………………………………………………………41 vi ABSTRACT Like many modern industrialized nations, Canada is grappling with the need to maintain a stable, growing economy and to take meaningful action on climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This is particularly challenging in a resource-based economy and federalist state like Canada, where competing regional interests and a historical dependence on oil has made it difficult to legislate and implement long-term energy and climate change policies. Two visions for energy development in Canada have emerged within public discourse. The first advocates the continued and expanded development of Canada’s oil sands and new pipeline infrastructure to access overseas energy markets. The second proposes a re- conceptualization of the Canadian energy sector based on a phasing out of carbon-based fuels and expanded use of renewable alternatives to support a thriving green economy and meet international climate change obligations. Both visions promise an environment-economic win- win scenario where Canada’s growth imperative can co-exist harmoniously with sustainable environmental policy. Ecological Modernization (EM) theory is a school of thought which maintains that decoupling economic growth from its environmental impacts is possible through technological and institutional modernization processes. This thesis examines both visions of energy development through the lens of EM theory to determine the likelihood of each in achieving environmental, economic and political reconciliation. EM has been successful in helping to frame and understand how industrialized societies are changing their views of the environment and incorporating ecological considerations into policy decisions. However, this thesis finds that the current political climate in Canada remains unfavourable to the transformative institutional reforms necessary to implement a truly ecologically modern national energy strategy. From the Canadian perspective, EM’s promise of an environmental-economic “win-win” scenario appears to be outweighed by political challenges. vii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS USED AER – Alberta Energy Regulator AOSTRA - Alberta Oil Sands Technology and Research Authority BAU – Business as usual BCC – Business Council of Canada BNA – British North American Act CAT – Climate Action Tracker CAPP – Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers CCS – Carbon Capture and Storage CCF – Canadian Council of the Federation CDE – Canadian Development Expense CEE – Canadian Exploration Expense CERI – Canadian Energy Research Institute COP – Conference of the Parties COSIA – Canada’s Oil Sands Innovation Alliance ECCC – Environment and Climate Change Canada EM – Ecological Modernization ENGO – Environmental Non-Governmental Organization EPIC – Energy Policy Institute of Canada EU – European Union FDI – Foreign Direct Investment FQD – Fuel Quality Directive GA – Global Adjustment GDP – Gross Domestic Product GEA – Green Energy Act viii GHG – Greenhouse Gas IEA – International Energy Agency IISD – International Institute for Sustainable Development IMF – International Monetary Fund IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IRC – Indian Resource Council Mb/d – million barrels per day Mt – megaton MW – Megawatts NCCP – National Climate Change Policy NDC – Nationally Determined Contributions NEB – National Energy Board NEP – National Energy Program NRCan – Natural Resources Canada NRTEE – National Roundtable on the Environment and the Economy OECD – Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development PCF – Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change SDTC – Sustainable Development Technology Canada UCP – United Conservative Party UNFCCC – United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change WEO – World Energy Outlook ix ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to acknowledge the work of my supervisor, Dr. Anders Hayden, and thank him for his patience and support in completing this project. I would also like to thank my parents, and husband Paul for all their love and support. x CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION Canada has enormous energy potential; it is one of the richest countries in the world in terms of renewable and non-renewable energy sources. The prairies hold the potential to tap vast amounts of solar electricity, and Quebec, Manitoba and B.C. are rich in hydroelectricity reserves. In the north, untapped geothermal energy and natural gas remain underexplored but promising. On the east coast wind energy and natural gas are in great supply, and plans to harness the powerful tides of the Bay of Fundy through tidal-powered turbines are currently being explored. Meanwhile, Newfoundland and Labrador enjoyed a short-lived but lucrative offshore oil boom, and is currently building its hydro electric capacity. Since the turn of the century, however, the Canadian energy landscape