Leadership in Social Movements: Evidence from the “Forty-Eighters”
American Economic Review 2021, 111(2): 1–35 https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20191137 Leadership in Social Movements: Evidence from the “Forty-Eighters” in the Civil War† By Christian Dippel and Stephan Heblich* This paper studies the role of leaders in the social movement against slavery that culminated in the US Civil War. Our analysis is orga- nized around a natural experiment: leaders of the failed German rev- olution of 1848–1849 were expelled to the United States and became antislavery campaigners who helped mobilize Union Army volun- teers. Towns where Forty-Eighters settled show two-thirds higher Union Army enlistments. Their influence worked through local newspapers and social clubs. Going beyond enlistment decisions, Forty-Eighters reduced their companies’ desertion rate during the war. In the long run, Forty-Eighter towns were more likely to form a local chapter of the NAACP. JEL D74, J15, J45, J61, N31, N41 ( ) Between 1861 and 1865, the United States’ North and South fought each other over the issue of slavery in the American Civil War. One in five adult men, 2.2 mil- lion in the North alone, took up arms to fight in the Union Army. Fighting was costly on both sides. In total, 620,000 men lost their lives, as many as in all other American wars combined Hacker 2011, Costa and Kahn 2003 . At the same time, the finan- ( ) cial incentives to fight in the war were low. Union Army privates earned about $13 per month, less than a farmhand Edmunds 1866 , and payment was irregular. In the ( ) South, there were stronger economic motives at least for some, since the war was about the survival of Southern institutions and property Hall, Huff, and Kuriwaki ( 2019 .
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