Integrated Resource Plan 2020
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2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN NEW BRUNSWICK POWER CORPORATION Contents 1 Executive Summary ................................................................................................................. 1 2 Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 8 2.1 NB Power Strategic Objectives, Vision, Mission and Values ............................................ 8 2.2 Integrated Resource Planning Process ............................................................................. 9 3 Stakeholder Engagement ...................................................................................................... 11 3.1 Overview of Public Engagement Process ....................................................................... 11 3.2 Scope of Engagement ..................................................................................................... 11 3.3 Online Engagement Approach ....................................................................................... 12 3.4 In-person Engagement Approach .................................................................................. 12 3.5 Public Engagement Findings .......................................................................................... 13 4 Policy Considerations ............................................................................................................ 15 4.1 The Electricity Act ........................................................................................................... 15 4.2 Electricity from Renewable Resources Regulation – Electricity Act ............................... 15 4.3 Greenhouse Gas Regulations ......................................................................................... 17 4.4 NB Power’s Mandate...................................................................................................... 22 5 Economic Assumptions ......................................................................................................... 23 5.1 Consumer Price Index .................................................................................................... 23 5.2 Electric Utility Construction Price Index ......................................................................... 23 5.3 Foreign Exchange Rate ................................................................................................... 23 5.4 Weighted Average Cost of Capital ................................................................................. 24 6 Fuel and Electricity Market Price Forecast ........................................................................... 25 7 Load Forecast ........................................................................................................................ 28 7.1 Residential ...................................................................................................................... 28 7.2 General Service .............................................................................................................. 30 7.3 Industrial ........................................................................................................................ 30 7.4 System Losses ................................................................................................................. 32 7.5 Peak Demand ................................................................................................................. 33 2020 Integrated Resource Plan 7.6 Load Forecast Results ..................................................................................................... 34 8 Existing Resources ................................................................................................................. 35 8.1 Generation Resources .................................................................................................... 35 8.2 Transmission & Interconnections .................................................................................. 39 9 Capacity Planning Reserve Criteria ....................................................................................... 41 9.1 Intermittent Resources .................................................................................................. 41 9.2 Intermittent Resource Planning Capacity Contribution ................................................. 42 9.3 Load and Resource Balance ........................................................................................... 44 10 Supply Side Resources .......................................................................................................... 46 10.1 Supply Options ............................................................................................................ 46 10.2 Capital and Operating Cost Assumptions ................................................................... 49 10.3 Distributed Energy Resources .................................................................................... 50 10.4 Small Modular Reactors ............................................................................................. 50 10.5 Results of Supply Analysis........................................................................................... 51 11 Energy Smart NB ................................................................................................................... 55 11.1 ESNB Historical Impacts .............................................................................................. 56 11.2 Looking Ahead ............................................................................................................ 58 12 Analysis & Results ................................................................................................................. 60 12.1 Methodology .............................................................................................................. 60 12.2 Emission Reference Case Calculation ......................................................................... 60 12.3 Base Case Analysis ...................................................................................................... 62 12.4 Final Integration Results ............................................................................................. 65 12.5 Greenhouse Gas Regulation Analysis ......................................................................... 68 13 Sensitivity Analysis ............................................................................................................. 73 13.1 Capital Cost Sensitivities ............................................................................................. 74 13.2 Fuel and Market Prices Sensitivities ........................................................................... 75 13.3 Load Forecast Sensitivities.......................................................................................... 78 13.4 Distributed Energy Resource Sensitivities .................................................................. 79 13.5 COVID-19 Scenario...................................................................................................... 82 2020 Integrated Resource Plan 14 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................... 84 14.1 Action Plan for Next Three Years ................................................................................ 85 15 Appendices ............................................................................................................................ 86 15.1 Appendix 1: Assumptions ........................................................................................... 86 15.2 Appendix 2: Status of Policy and Regulation Considerations ..................................... 88 15.3 Appendix 3: Project and Operating Cost Parameters ................................................ 90 15.4 Appendix 4: Provincial Load Forecast Details ............................................................. 91 15.5 Appendix 5: Small Modular Reactors ......................................................................... 92 15.6 Appendix 6: Comparison to 2017 Integrated Resource Plan ..................................... 94 2020 Integrated Resource Plan 1 Executive Summary NB Power has a vision of providing sustainable energy for future generations of New Brunswickers. Many important factors contribute to bringing that vision to life, while still providing reliable, safe and competitively priced energy for all New Brunswick homes and businesses. The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) paints a robust, long-term picture for New Brunswick’s energy supply and demand, with a continued focus on reducing NB Power’s greenhouse gas emissions profile. By providing a 20-year outlook, the plan ensures NB Power will make the best short- and long- term energy decisions for customers. It balances supply-side (generating stations) with demand side (customer level) options while seeing NB Power stay ahead of minimums set in federal and provincial regulations, and recognizing the corporation’s mandate and the provincial Electricity Act. The IRP also continues NB Power’s environmental leadership and responsibilities in an evolving energy landscape. As a Crown corporation, NB Power is owned by New Brunswickers. It is important to involve New Brunswickers in the planning process for the 2020 Integrated Resource Plan. In late 2019, NB Power engaged New Brunswickers, including First