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Dr Tom O'connor

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Dr Tom O'connor Does Ireland Need A New Left Party? Dr Tom O’Connor CIT Economic Justification for a New Left Party: Austerity and Move to Left Adding up all the public spending cuts and tax increases, known as fiscal ‘adjustment’ from 2008-2014 inclusive, the total is €31.5 billion. At least another 2 billion adjustment in 2015 to bring General Government Deficit down to less than 3% Ireland declared officially out of recession in September 2013, based on CSO growth data Austerity is happening and will be happening when Ireland is not and will not be in recession. The effect of austerity is cumulative= People going left Next 4 slides indicate the urgency for a new left party to respond to the continuing and future economic and social destruction EU Commission (June 2014) want austerity to persist for years after 2016; bringing down the deficit to zero combined with the eating up of tax revenue of 18-20% per annum will cumulatively heap for hardship beyond the limits of coping on millions in Ireland. Macroeconomic Indicators % of GDP 2013 2014 2015 2016 General -7.3 -4.8 2.9 2.4 Government Balance General 124.1 120 118.4 114.6 Government Debt Exchequer 11.3 9.6 6.0 2.9 Borrowing requirement (€ billion) General 206.9 204.7 209.4 211.6 Government Debt (€ billion Source: Dept of Finance (2014): Budget Fiscal outlook Servicing the Debt €Billion 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total 7.64 8.19 8,75 9.23 Interest on Govt Debt % Tax 19 20 21 21 Revenue Budget 2014 Fiscal Outlook Growth and Employment Annual % 2013 2014 2015 2016 Change Real GDP 0.2 2.0 2.3 2.8 Nominal GDP 1.2 2.9 3.7 4.4 Domestic 0.3 1.4. 1.1 1.2 Demand Contribution Exports -0.2 0.8 1.2 1.6 Contribution to Real GDP Growth Employment 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 Unemployme 13.5% 12.4 11.8 11.4 nt Basic Deprivation % Individuals 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Without heating at some 6.3 7.3 10.5 12.2 12.9 stage in the last year Unable to afford a 11.1 14.9 19.3 21.1 23.3 morning, afternoon or evening out in the last fortnight Unable to afford a roast 3.8 3.4 5.5 6.7 7.6 once a week Unable to afford to keep 3.7 4.1 6.8 6.8 8.5 the home adequately warm Unable to replace worn 13.3 16.3 20.3 21.7 24.5 out furniture Effects of Austerity on Politics ‘Politics without bases’(Whyte 1972) has eventually yielded. On the results of the Local and European Elections 2014, the ‘two and a half party system’ is gone. The European elections indicate the following first preference party support levels: FG (22%); FF (22%); SF (20%); Other parties/Independents (30%); Labour (5%). The final result for the Local Elections shows the following first preferences: FF (25%); FG (24%); Other Parties/Independents/Greens (28%); SF (15%) and Labour (7%). Left Gains on Back of Austerity People Before Profit 15 Council Seats Anti Austerity Alliance 14 Seats Sinn Fein 157 Labour 51 ‘Other’ 209 FF and FG the remainder of 949 European Elections: Marian Harkin, Luke ‘Ming Flanagan & Matt Carthy (SF), 3 of 4 in Mid West Dublin: Lynn Boylan (SF) and Neassa Childers- 2 of 3 South: Liadh Ni Riada (SF) 1 of 4 Current Dail Tommy Broughan (ex Lab); Joan Collins (Ind Left); Clare Daly (Ind Left); Luke Ming Flanagan (Ind); John Halligan (Ind); Finian McGrath (Ind); Catherine Murphy (Ind); Ruth Coppinger (SP); Maureen O’Sullivan (Ind); Tom Pringle ( Ind ); Roisin Shortall (ex Lab); Mick Wallace ( Ind ); Richard Boyd Barrett (PBP); Seamus Healy (TUAG); Joe Higgins (SP). These 15 could be broadly speaking classified as ‘left’ Assuming that the ‘Ming’ seat goes left; stays at 15 Shane Ross and Stephen Donnelly 11 of 28 total from FG (mainly new Reform Alliance) and FF gene pool. Responding Politically There are 15 Dail seats between SP, PBP and other left. The swing to ‘Other’ brings total 1 st preference in LE (28%) and European (30%) make was the biggest choice for voters and is consistent in opinion polls On the basis of cumulative dissatisfaction & future austerity; health crisis; housing and homelessness scandal; persistent high unemployment, the move to the left is not ‘soft’ and is likely to persist, despite govt spinning on some future economic improvements in short term which will have little impact in the face of continuing austerity. There is an appetite for a new party Combining this swing with the success of SF, AAA and PBP and the near wipe out of Labour in Local and European Elections, it seems clear that the electorate want a new left party. Structure of New Left Party With the economic, social and political basis for a new left party established, what might it look like? The left has real roots which have taken years to grow. There is no shortage of left parties; just unity! There isn’t in fact any political room for a brand new left party not emerging from long-standing public representatives Unless AAA and PBP forge a new Party made up of themselves and all other left Independent TDs (I believe this is unlikely), there are 3 options: 1. A formal Alliance between all current left independents, AAA and PBP in the Dail. 2. A new Party , possibly led by those independents who have left PBP & SP & the Labour Party and joined by other left independents who may wish to join them . 3. In the event of no. 2 occurring, an Alliance of SP, PBP and joined by other left independents who may wish to join them Future Dynamics Any of the 3 options would have to be replicated in Local Authorities across Ireland. There are over 200 independent councillors since LE 2014; the challenge for established left parties and public representatives is to reach out to the like-minded Left members of this cohort. The renewal of alliances or a new party at national level can inspire the Irish population A new alliance or Party at local level between the ‘established left’ Public Reps and new independent councillors can grow left support locally and produce candidates nationally to double the number of left TDs (ex SF) from 15 to 30 seats or more At such point, either all or some of these (depending on options 1-3) could coalesce with SF and FF to form the a left led coalition..
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