Little Chance for House Majority Shift 5 Tossup Races, 6 in ‘Leans’ Leave Democrats with Little Chance of Regaining Majority by BRIAN A
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V21, 36 Thursday, May 12, 2016 Little chance for House majority shift 5 tossup races, 6 in ‘leans’ leave Democrats with little chance of regaining majority By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS – The Indiana House Republican super majority could be hanging in the balance on Nov. 8, but Speaker Brian Bosma isn’t going to be losing too much sleep over the notion of a “Speaker Scott Pelath,” even if a Trumpian disaster unfolds for the GOP. The Indiana House Horse Race begins with five seats in the “tossup zone,” all held by Republicans. In addi- tion, there are another five seats that in a neu- tral political year would “lean Republican” (and one Democratic seat) but could be susceptible to House Speaker Brian Bosma talks with Minority Leader Scott Pelath, but there an anti-Trump wave impacting down-ballot races. seems little chance the two will swap positions. (HPI Photo by Mark Curry) With Republicans holding a towering seats. A clean sweep would put Republican control in the 71-29 advantage, at this first analysis, the super majority 60-40 range, something the GOP achieved in the 2010 status could be in jeopardy by Democrats picking up four Continued on page 3 Donald’s wild, wild ride By CAMERON CARTER MONTICELLO, Ind. – I know, I know; you want to read another piece on Donald Trump about as much as I want to write one, but grant this one accommodation to our shared political reality. We’re going to be hearing and seeing and reading A LOT about “He’s more qualified in the sense “The Donald” over the next six months as he heads first to the that the American people want GOP convention in Cleveland this an outsider. She’s not an outsid- summer and then to televised de- bates this fall with Hillary Clinton. er. She’s not qualified and he is.” Buckle up, buttercup, it’s going to be a wild, wild ride. - Former Vice President Dan Grant this as well; all of Quayle, endorsing Donald the political soothsayers, all of the yammering heads on TV, all Trump this morning on of the campaign pros, even the NBC’s ‘Today Show’ new class of predictive political Page 2 data geek-demigod-gurus (e.g., Nate By definition, that leader was Silver), got Trump’s rise wrong, dead not going to come from this class wrong. Their conventional wisdom with which the American people are told us that Trump would never be the so frustrated. However, an “outsider” Republican nominee, so we need not would fit the bill nicely and many worry about this boorish ignoramus stepped forward in 2015 to claim the becoming the next leader of the free mantle. world. Presidential aspirants be- Wrong. Dead wrong. Worry gin with a small base of support, an is of no use at this time. itch to run and encouragement from Howey Politics Indiana How’d they get it so wrong? those around them (remember the WWHowey Media, LLC 405 And, why is Donald Trump, a man un- fish). However, their aspirations in Massachusetts Ave., Suite fit to serve as president by tempera- a “yuuuge” diverse country of 320 300 Indianapolis, IN 46204 ment and training, likely – yes, likely million people are mostly delusional, – to become our next commander in even for well-regarded, long-serving www.howeypolitics.com chief? Theories abound, but I think it comes down Brian A. Howey, Publisher to isolation, the power of Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington modern celebrity, and the Jack E. Howey, Editor ineffectiveness of the GOP as both a governing party Mary Lou Howey, Editor and loyal opposition to Maureen Hayden, Statehouse President Obama. In In- Mark Curry, photography diana’s primary last week, we saw all these forces culminate in Trump as the Subscriptions presumptive Republican HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 nominee. HPI Weekly, $350 A fish does not Ray Volpe, Account Manager know it is in water, and it is this public officials. They run to serve, 317.602.3620 phenomenon primarily that led to they run to promote an issue (or a the political class being blindsided by book), they run to stroke their egos, email: [email protected] the Donald (and perhaps to an even but mostly they just run and, like Contact HPI greater extent, Bernie Sanders, whose many a marathoner, they hit a wall. [email protected] time in the sun is, alas, coming to an The national infrastruc- Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 end). This class is isolated by geogra- ture needed to mount a successful phy, income, and everyday activities presidential campaign is daunting. The Washington: 202.256.5822 from the concerns of the hoi polloi. ability to pierce the public conscious- Business Office: 317.602.3620 Wherever located, they are isolated ness in a nation so vast and diverse at the far end of the bell curve from – whose modern, disintegrating media © 2016, Howey Politics the concerns of average Americans, is even more vast and diverse – is Indiana. All rights reserved. whose income has not risen in real simply beyond the capabilities of most terms in more than a decade. They campaigns. Unless they are already a Photocopying, Internet forward- live and breathe politics whereas the celebrity, a brand, like Donald Trump. ing, faxing or reproducing in average American is mostly far re- Trump’s national following any form, whole or part, is a moved from politics and simply wants as a reality TV star developed over violation of federal law without space to live and breathe. decades as a self-promoting real permission from the publisher. Polling data have shown estate developer, casino magnate and the country’s “right track/wrong track” book author. Like it or not, Trump is numbers severely upside down for an eponymous brand in the Ameri- many years and President Obama has can psyche, has been for years, and proven to be a polarizing figure during he’s far from bland. Blandness is his tenure. Our catatonic Congress Kryptonite to a national candidate in is less popular than genital warts. today’s media mix and the more expe- The conditions were ripe for a politi- rienced, sober and thoughtful candi- cal “revolution”; all it needed was a date will always struggle against the leader. bomb-thrower and the demagogue. It Page 3 has ever been so throughout history. Trump’s trump card gets complex when applied in the real world; the same can was … Trump! be said for social issues. The GOP needs new ideas and Finally, Trump sensed the void in a political party new leaders. Into the breach steps Donald Trump, who will that has been riven by factionalism and fanaticism to its now be the standard-bearer for a party that is struggling detriment and potential demise. During my entire politi- with its 21st century identity and very survival; call it end- cal career which began in the Reagan era, the GOP has state Republicanism. been an unstable alliance between fiscal hawks and social Trump is a crass celebrity who exploited the conservatives. One wing is laissez faire whose economic GOP’s internal divisions and will exploit the wider pub- doctrine extends to noninterference in the social affairs of lic’s abiding discontent with politicians unable to provide others (both figuratively and literally) while the other wing answers to economic distress and uncertainty. His policies would like to regulate personal morals and social conduct, are all over the map, but we should have learned by now even to the extremes of dictating the precise time and not to underestimate his appeal or ability. place one may poop or carry (or not) a child to term, re- Donald Trump is in a statistical tie with the deeply gardless of circumstance. Not much common ground there flawed Hillary Clinton in new polling in the swing states to discuss at the Lincoln Day dinner table. of Pennsylvania and Florida. He’s leading her in the swing This friction between those attracted to the state of Ohio. We have seen his type before, only less Republican Party for entirely different reasons has led to crass, but equally brash in his own, mellifluous way. That internal clashes that are increasing in frequency, serious- person, too, was an unlikely victor over Hillary Clinton and ness and result (see Lugar, Richard G.). While this plays calls 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue his home. v out nationally, we in Indiana have seen it up close and personal during the Pence years as debates over gay Carter is a recuperating lobbyist and long- rights, abortion and other “social” issues (e.g., needle ex- time political strategist who has worked on several changes) have played an out-sized role in Hoosier politics. state and national political campaigns. He is HPI’s At the same time, the doctrine of laissez faire economics national correspondent. Email him at hoosier1az@ seems to have played out and what is simple in theory mac.com. publican presidential candidate Donald Trump becomes so Indiana House, from page 1 toxic that it produces down-ballot carnage. Horse Race wave year. Another three Republican seats are “likely” for Status: Leans Soliday. the incumbent. The rest are considered “safe” for incum- HD7: Open. Justin Chupp (R) v. Joe bents. Taylor III (D). In the seat vacated by State Rep. So it would take a colossal 1964 type national David Niezgodski, Chupp polled 5,920 primary voters and wave to move the majority from Republicans to Demo- Taylor 5,495. Outlook: Democrats should hold on to this crats. If that dynamic takes place, we’ll reevaluate the list open seat.