PROJECT/PROGRAMME PROPOSAL TO THE ADAPTATION FUND PART I: PROJECT/PROGRAMME INFORMATION Project/Programme Category: Regular Project/Programme Country/ies: El Salvador Title of Project/Programme: Enhancing climate resilience of rural communities and ecosystems in Ahuachapán -Sur, El Salvador. Type of Implementing Entity: Multilateral Implementing Entity Implementing Entity: United Nations Development Programme Executing Entity/ies: Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (MARN) Amount of Financing Requested: $8,484,502.92 (in U.S Dollars Equivalent) Project / Programme Background and Context: National Background 1. El Salvador, has been identified by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as one of the countries with the highest sensitivity to climate change1. According to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC, the country is characterized by a high exposure to geoclimatic threats, resulting from its location and topography, exacerbating climate change induced risk and vulnerability of human settlements and ecosystems2. The Global Climate Risk Index for the period between 1997 to 2016, covering both human and economic impacts, ranks El Salvador 16th in the world, emphasizing the country’s high vulnerability to extreme climate events3. There is ample evidence of climate change and variability affecting all sectors of society and economy, at different spatial and temporal scales, from intra- seasonal to long-term variability as a result of large-scale cyclical phenomena4. A study from The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) found that between 1980 to 2008, an average of 1.5 natural disasters per year resulted in nearly 7,000 human casualties, affecting 2.9 million people, and costing US $470 million to the central government (amount that is equivalent to 4.2% of the Gross Domestic Product). The country of El Salvador spends an equivalent to 1.1% of its total GDP with dealing with climate change related impacts and infrastructure every year on average. 1 D. L. Hartmann, a. M. G. K. Tank, and M. Rusticucci, “IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, Climatie Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis,” Ipcc AR5, no. January 2014 (2013): 31–39, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324. 2 IPCC, “Climate Change, Adaptation, and Vulnerability,” Organization & Environment 24, no. March (2014): 1–44, https://doi.org/http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/IPCC_WG2AR5_SPM_Approved.pdf. 3 Sönke Kreft and David Eckstein, “Global Climate Risk Index 2014,” Germanwatch, 2013, 28, http://germanwatch.org/en/download/8551.pdf. 4 (Cai et al., 2015; Harger, 1995; Neelin et al., 1998; Takahashi et al., 2011; Torrence and Webster, 1999; Wolter and Timlin, 2011) 1 2. El Salvador is the most densely populated country in Central America (342 people per km²) with a population of approximately 6.46 million inhabitants, of which 52.9% are women5. The country’s territory totals 21,040 km², with a rugged topography (50% of total land mass has slopes of over 15%), highly erodible soils and the lowest per capita availability of freshwater in Central America5. According to the measurement of compound poverty6, 35.2% of the total Salvadoran households are poor, equivalent to 606,000 homes to approximately 2.6 million people. Similarly, the multidimensional poverty rate in rural areas is 58.5%, and 22.5% in urban areas. Thirty-eight percent of the country’s population resides in rural or non-urban areas, of which 20% are women7. In all the departments, other than one, over 50% of rural households are multidimensionally poor and as such are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change (Figure 1). Homes with this condition have the following deprivations: 37% food insecurity; 49% lack of access to drinking water;Multid 83.7%imens inoon aaccessl pove torty public incid ehealth.nce p e r region (% of households) Figure 1 – Incidence of Multidimensional Poverty per region in El Salvador. Source: DIGESTYC, 20156. 3. Sixty percent of the national territory is devoted to agriculture, which is the main source of livelihood for the rural population in the country. About 36% of the total country territory is arable land, with corn as the main subsistence crop, followed by rice, beans, oilseeds, and sorghum, and with the cultivation of coffee and sugar cane as major cash crops 4. The effects of climate change, as observed over recent years, have directly affected the productivity across the whole spectrum of the agricultural sector, with significant impacts on smallholder farming8. According to the last agricultural census, there are more than 325,000 producers of basic grains who work in land parcels of sizes ranging between 0.7-3 hectares. Not surprisingly, 52.4% of the farmers organize their agricultural activity in parcels averaging 0.7 hectares, with an average corn production of 1.427 kg/ha. This production may satisfy the immediate needs of a family household (requiring only 1,300 kg of corn per year), but is significantly lower than the national average production (2,575 kg/ha). Impact from extreme weather such as the tropical storm Mitch (1998) caused damages and total loss of US $388.1 million, with US $158.3 million (40.8% of the total) impacting the agricultural sector. The 2001, drought reported damages and loss for US $31.4 million and 81% for the farming industry. Hurricane Stan (2005) caused US $355.6 million in damages and loss, US $48.7 million and 5 Ministry of Economy; General Directorate of Statistics and Census –DIGESTyC; El Salvador: 2014; Estimates and Trends of Municipal Population 2005-2025 6 STPP and MINEC-DIGESTYC (2015). Multidimensional Measurement of poverty. El Salvador. San Salvador: Technical and Planning Secretariat of the Presidency and the Ministry of Economy, through the General Directorate of Statistics and Census. Compound Poverty: Takes into account the essential areas for human development and well-being. A total of twenty indicators around five essential well-being dimensions: a) education; b) housing conditions; c) work and social security; d) health, basic services and food security; and e) quality of the habitat. 7 STPP & MINEC-DIGESTYC, “Medición Multidimensional de La Pobreza. El Salvador.,” San Salvador: Secretaría Técnica y de Planificación de La Presidencia y Ministerio de Economía, a Través de La Dirección General de Estadística y Censos., 2015. 8 Minerva Campos et al., “Estrategias de Adaptación Al Cambio Climático En Dos Comunidades Rurales de México y El Salvador,” Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in Two Rural Communities in Mexico and El Salvador, no. 61 (2013): 329– 49, http://www.boletinage.com/61/16-CAMPOS.pdf. 2 13.7% of the total for the agricultural sector. The Tropical Depression Twelve-E (DT 12-E) in 2011 carried a price tag of US $306 million in damages and losses in the agricultural sector. Between 2014 and 2015, losses in agriculture, as a result of severe drought, costed the country more than US $140 million, with greater impact felt on subsistence crops (corn and beans), as well as in the dairy industry which lost more than 10% of its production. The sustained dry spell followed by high temperatures, has also caused severe damage to the health of human populations, to the broader agricultural sector, and the natural environment. Furthermore, the reduction or deficiency in rainfall over the period has also affected the availability and quality of superficial and underground water resources. 5. More needs to be done in order to adapt productive systems, diversify livelihoods, and enhance community resilience in the face of climate change, given the fact that, the impacts we see now will continue and will be exacerbated by the predicted increase in frequency and intensity of droughts as a result of higher temperatures and rainfall variability in the country9. The current situation showcases the lack of broad economic strength, low levels of diversification and technology, with direct consequences to flexible and effective adaptation. Extreme weather hazards and climate change in El Salvador 6. El Salvador is currently impacted by the effects of climate variability and change, with highly variable rainfall patterns, both spatial and temporal, which is leading to an increase in the number of extreme climatic events (i.e. tropical cyclones, floods and droughts). Over time, El Salvador has passed from experiencing one event per decade in the sixties and seventies, two in the eighties, four in the nineties, to eight extreme events in the last decade. This shows a shift from previous decades, when extreme events hitting the country would originate mostly from the Atlantic Ocean, and had its first wave of impacts mitigated by the land mass of neighbouring countries. This is no longer the case, since the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones originating from both the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans has increased over the past two decades (Figure 2). Figure 2 – Paths of tropical cyclones in the region between 1970-2011. Source: NOAA, 2012. 7. In 2010 the, UNDAC placed El Salvador as the most climate change vulnerable country in the world, with 95% of its population at risk from natural disasters. Overall, the most important historic trends on climate are here summarized, as follows (Table 1): 9 Ipcc, “Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis,” Ipcc AR5, no. March 2013 (2013): 2014, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.Summary. 3 Table 1 – Summary of historic climate trends in El Salvador. Historical climate trends since the 1950s include: Projected changes in climate by the 2050s include: ▪ A 1.3°C average increase in temperature ▪ Increased temperature of 1.4°–2°C, ▪ An increase of warm days and nights, ▪ Decreased precipitation by 2–15 percent, decreased cold days and nights, ▪ Longer and drier periods of drought, ▪ An increase of the frequency and intensity of ▪ Increased frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events, from 1 per decade weather and climate extremes, including (1960–1980) to 8 per decade (2000–2010); increased rainfall during hurricanes, since 2009, a series of extreme rainfall records ▪ Sea level rise of 18 cm by 2050 and 37– have been set; 44 cm by 2065.