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Integrated Model for Assessing Sustainability of Complex Systems

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Integrated Model for Assessing Sustainability of Complex Systems Gaya Gamage, Dr. Carol Boyle, Dr. Ir. Ron McDowall Methodology ‐ Concept Complex systems Sustainability assessments Results – Model Streamlined –> complete Conclusions Future work 3/12/2010 2 Step 1: Review complex systems literature to identify significant characteristics of complex systems = Criteria Step 2: Use identified criteria to evaluate existing sustainability assessment methods and models Step 3: Identify the most suitable existing methods with respect to the abilities of the methods to take the identified criteria into account Step 4: Develop a new model for assessing sustainability of complex systems by combining the most suitable methods Step 5: Test the model on case study product systems 3/12/2010 3 A complex system consists of large populations of independent, interacting and self-interested agents where behaviour of the whole cannot be explained by the behaviour of the individual parts (Sawyer, 2005). A Complex Adaptive System (CAS) is a system that is complex and adaptive giving it the ability to change and learn thus increasing chances of its survival. The Earth system is an example of a CAS (Holland, 1995), and organisations are CAS within the Earth system (Waldrop, 1992). 3/12/2010 4 “Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” (WCED, 1987, p. 43). Sustainability of CAS depends on our understanding of how the complex systems function with their numerous and various interactions and interconnections. 3/12/2010 5 Diversity Nonlinearity Dynamic Connectivity Self‐organisation Emergence Co‐evolution Resilience Holism 3/12/2010 6 “Fundamental unit of dynamic change” (Gunderson and Holling, 2002) (Image: Holling, 2007) 3/12/2010 7 Behaviour of adaptive cycles nested hierarchically within each other ‐ interconnectedness 3/12/2010 (Image: Holling (2004)) 8 Take complexity of the system into account by: Recognising the existence of multiple agents and system levels; Recognising interconnections and interdependencies; Taking system dynamics into account (time and space); Recognising system limits or thresholds; Recognising resilience and adaptive capacity; and Being holistic; and Be based on science where appropriate Help achieve scientific validity. 3/12/2010 9 26 existing sustainability assessment methods were evaluated Basic analytical Integrated methods Indicators Tools for sustainability methods Emergy Triple Bottom Line Well‐being Index Life Cycle Assessment Exergy The Natural Step Sustainability Performance Index Life Cycle Costing Sustainability assessment by Living Planet Index Social Life Cycle Assessment fuzzy evaluation (SAFE) Ecosystem Resilience Product Sustainability Index Risk Analysis Critical Limits and Critical Natural Barometer of Sustainability Environmental Sustainability Index Capital Ecological Footprint Genuine Progress Indicator Cost Benefit Analysis Genuine Savings Indicator Multi‐Criteria analysis Human Development Index Sustainable Process Index Carbon/water Footprint Dow Jones Sustainability Index 3/12/2010 10 The results of the evaluation showed that: The existing assessment methods or models were well adapt at assessing what they were designed to assess. However... Most existing methods did not take the criteria into account and hence were unable to assess sustainability of complex systems 3/12/2010 11 LCA and RA were chosen because: They are both analytical tools and can be used to assess for the sustainability criteria identified ; They have sufficient readily available literature and support including respective academic journals; The assessment methods have been standardized; Databases exist; Both assessment methods have been standardised; Both methods can be used to influence the future; The methods and results are widely communicated and accepted; and The methods have the necessary characteristics to be integrated where the two methods can complement each other. 3/12/2010 12 Integration of LCA and RA can be carried out in numerous ways. For the resulting model to be fully integrated, components of both methods should connect seamlessly. The existing frameworks for both models assist in this procedure. 3/12/2010 13 Goal and scope (establish context) Inventory Inventory analysis Impact assessment Identify risks Analyse risks Evaluate risks Risk treatment 3/12/2010 14 Streamlined sustainability assessment – reduced to three systems Time Environmental risks Environmental Impact source LCA Social risks impacts local/global Economic risks 3/12/2010 15 Time Environmental risks Social risks Environmental Impact source LCA impacts local/global Economic risks 3/12/2010 16 Sustainability assessment comprised of streamlined assessments per system Time Environmental Impact source Environmental risks LCA data impacts local/global Social risks Impact source Social LCA data Social impacts local/global Economic risks Impact source LCC data Economic impacts local/global 3/12/2010 17 In order to obtain a complete sustainability assessment, integration at each phase is required Risks Environmental risks Environmental, Social risks Social and Impact source Inventory Economic local/global impacts Economic risks Time 3/12/2010 18 1. Risks from smaller lower Complex system - Environment level systems (micro level) - risks within the product Societal system system as well as risks to the product system from Economic system systems below; 2. Risks from the larger upper level systems (macro level); Product system and 3. External risks from random disasters – risks from emergence. 3/12/2010 19 Product system within Mitigate risks Improved economic, identified, product social and analysed and system Environmental evaluated systems 3/12/2010 20 LCA and RA have the ability to take sustainability criteria into account. The hybrid model developed uses results from one component as input for the other and can be implemented on product systems, designs, etc. The model can be used as a streamlined version or more holistic (complete) version incorporating environmental, social and economic systems as per the strong sustainability concept. Treatment of risk may be instrumental in sustainability of product systems. The different levels of risk that needs to be treated for sustainability correspond with the concept of panarchy. 3/12/2010 21 Future work may be based on empirically testing whether treatment of risk identified by the model would lead to sustainability of a CAS such as a product system. Development of software for the hybrid method. Application of the method on different systems. 3/12/2010 22 Holland, J. H. (1995) Hidden Order: How Adaptation Builds Complexity, Helix Books: Reading, MA. Holling, C. S. (2004) From complex regions to complex worlds. Ecology and Society 9(1): 11. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol9/iss1/art11/ Holling, (2007) ‐ http://rs.resalliance.org/2007/02/27/ecosystem‐reality‐modelling‐ reflections‐pt‐5/ Sawyer, R. K. (2005) Social Emergence: Societies as Complex Systems, Cambridge, University Press, New York. Waldrop, M. M. (1992) Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Chaos and Order, Simon and Schuster, New York, NY. WCED, World Commission on Environment and Development (1987) Our common Future, Oxford University Press, Oxford. 3/12/2010 23 Question Time --- Thank you! 3/12/2010 24.
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