Download Paper
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
KAREN L. JONES Karen L. Jones is a senior policy analyst and technology and market strategist at The Aerospace Corporation’s Center for Space Policy and Strategy. Jones has more than 30 years of experience across diverse industries, including federal government, information technology, telecommunications, remote sensing, satellite industry, environmental technology and services, oil and gas, mining, and renewable energy. Prior to joining Aerospace, Jones was a management consultant with Arthur D. Little and IBM Global Services. She has an M.B.A. from the Yale School of Management. MARTIN L. ROSS Martin N. Ross is an atmospheric scientist in Aerospace’s Launch Systems Division. Ross has over 30 years of experience performing research on the Earth’s climate and stratospheric ozone. He has managed airborne science campaigns for NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and is a contributor to international studies such as the United Nations’ quadrennial “Scientific Assessment of Stratospheric Ozone Depletion.” Ross has published over 60 scientific papers covering a wide range of subjects in atmospheric science and rocket engine technology. Ross earned his Ph.D. in planetary physics from UCLA. SAMIRA PATEL Samira Patel is a policy analyst at Aerospace’s Center for Space Policy and Strategy. Her research includes space policy issues, satellite applications and services, and the commercial space sector. Prior to joining the center, Samira supported the Commercial Remote Sensing Regulatory Affairs Office at NOAA, where she focused on remote sensing licensing and the Advisory Committee on Commercial Remote Sensing activities. She graduated with a bachelor’s degree in anthropology from the University of Chicago. ABOUT THE CENTER FOR SPACE POLICY AND STRATEGY The Center for Space Policy and Strategy is dedicated to shaping the future by providing nonpartisan research and strategic analysis to decisionmakers. The Center is part of The Aerospace Corporation, a nonprofit organization that advises the government on complex space enterprise and systems engineering problems. The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the author(s), and do not necessarily reflect those of The Aerospace Corporation, its management, or its customers. Contact us at www.aerospace.org/policy or [email protected] Summary Since the acquisition of Alaska, the United States has been an Arctic country. Politically, governance in the Arctic comprises the “Arctic Five” or countries with Arctic coastal areas, including the United States, Russia, Canada, Norway, and Denmark (Greenland). As a country with territorial claims north of the Arctic Circle at 66.3˚ North, the United States has political, economic, national security, environmental, and cultural interests across the region. Protecting these interests while supporting international cooperation has become increasingly complicated as the retreat of sea ice and warmer temperatures have expanded human activity in the region. Previously unnavigable land and ocean surface routes and coastal harbors have become available for shipping, resource extraction, and industrial development. Increased activity in these extreme northern latitudes has fueled demand for communication, navigation, and surveillance infrastructures to serve commercial, civil, and military needs. This paper provides an overview of U.S. Arctic policy and national interests and of the rapidly changing conditions in the region. It also describes how commercial satellite services can support Arctic stakeholders needs for faster and ubiquitous communications, timely domain awareness, and an improved means to accurately navigate and observe the region’s rapidly changing conditions. By fully optimizing existing and future space-based infrastructure, using low Earth, geosynchronous, and highly elliptical orbits, the United States can work cooperatively with other Arctic nations to build situational awareness, enhance operations, and strengthen a common rule-based order. Introduction including national security, economic, Approximately four million people live above the environmental, cultural, and international Arctic circle. While it is one of the most sparsely cooperation. populated places on the planet and a remote region known for cold and harsh conditions, there is a Fortunately, the polar region is developing at a time growing demand for infrastructure in the Arctic. when the space industry is moving from Facilities and services for space infrastructure in government-sponsored efforts to more commercial particular are not as available at parity as at lower enterprises. The market momentum provided by latitudes. Closing this infrastructure gap will serve commercial proliferated low Earth orbit (LEO) the United States on several strategic fronts, constellations, as well as geostationary equatorial 1 orbit (GEO) and highly elliptical orbit (HEO) of the planet, resulting in widespread permafrost satellites, will contribute to closing this melting.1 infrastructure gap. These capabilities are further enhanced through network convergence, data In the summer of 2019, the world experienced the sharing and fusion, and greater situational first ever recorded opening of both potential Arctic awareness, whereby stakeholders gain a broader, Ocean routes. (see Figure 1). This has been possible more insightful picture of the region. because sea ice, which plays an important role in the Arctic system, is melting quickly. Since 1979, when There is a growing sense of urgency as the changes data was first collected from passive microwave in the Arctic are accelerating at a time when the sensors onboard satellites, scientists have observed United States needs to advance security interests, a steady decline in the extent of sea ice— pursue responsible regional Arctic stewardship, and approximately 12.8 percent decline per decade work closely with our international allies to protect (measured during September).2 Moreover, the the Arctic environment. The 20 million square quality of Arctic sea ice has declined; thick multi- kilometers around the North Pole are experiencing year ice now accounts for only a small fraction of the effects of a warming climate even faster than the the summer ice coverage. Sea-ice loss models have rest of the Earth. Surface air temperatures in the predicted that the summer Arctic Ocean could be ice Arctic are rising at twice the rate relative to the rest free as early as 2030.3 Figure 1: The Arctic Region. The area north of the Arctic Circle (66.3° north latitude) includes vast expanses of ocean, ice, and some landmasses—including hundreds of major islands, thousands of minor islands, and the coastlines of five countries. 2 The addition of three other countries with land inside the Arctic circle but without Arctic Ocean coasts, Iceland, Sweden, and Finland, make up the “Arctic Eight.” These eight countries are permanent Member States of the Arctic Council, which was established by the 1996 Ottawa Declaration to promote cooperation, coordination, and interaction. In addition to the permanent Member States, other countries (mid-latitude states), and notably China, are accorded Observer status and six Arctic indigenous communities have Permanent Participant status, which includes full consultation rights in connection with the council’s negotiations and decisions. Approximately half of the Arctic population (two million) lives in Russia, which generates, depending on oil prices, between 24 and 30 percent of its gross national product (GNP) from Figure 2: GEO Satellite Line of Sight. Satellites in GEO its Arctic territory. By contrast, fewer than cannot provide coverage beyond 81°3’ maximum latitude; at this point a geostationary satellite is below the local horizon. At 68 thousand Americans live above the Arctic a practical level, a GEO satellite’s operational limits are Circle—and Alaska generates only 0.3 percent of several degrees lower due to receiver noise from atmospheric U.S. GNP annually.7 Even though the direct stakes refraction, frequency interference due to Earth’s thermal may seem comparatively low for the United States, emission, line-of-sight obstructions, and interference from the strategic importance of the Arctic cannot be signal reflections with ground structures.5 While configurations of land-based antennas and the beam-steering capabilities on underestimated. The polar region’s biodiversity, some GEO satellites can improve GEO performance between increasing importance for shipping routes, and 60° and 80°, serious challenges exist for areas approaching natural resource capacity are immense. Russia and 6 80° latitude. China are proactive as they assert their interests in the region. Russia for instance has extended its continental shelf claim (see “Arctic Territorial Background Claims” sidebar) and has increased its military Governance presence around the Arctic Ocean. Meanwhile The Arctic Ocean is largely governed by United China, a self-declared “Near-Arctic State,” has Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea ambitiously pursued plans for the “Polar Silk Road.” (UNCLOS), adopted in 1982. Politically, Both Chinese ambitions and Russian territorial governance in the Arctic comprises the “Arctic claims and strong military presence in the Arctic are Five” countries with Arctic coastal areas, including even more concerning as these two countries the United States, Russia, Canada, Norway, and collaborate, across diplomatic, economic, and Denmark (Greenland). UNCLOS specifies that security areas.8