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Why Trump – and How Far Can He Go?
The Forum 2015; 13(4): 541–558 William G. Mayer* Why Trump – and How Far Can He Go? DOI 10.1515/for-2015-0038 Introduction Like most pundits – and most political scientists – I did not see this one coming. I was not terribly surprised when, on June 16, 2015, Donald Trump announced that he was running for president. As more and more presidential debates are held before the first primary, and as more and more of these debates are nation- ally televised, we have gradually begun to produce a set of candidates who enter the presidential race not because they have a realistic chance of winning their party’s nomination, but because it is a good career move. They get a boatload of free publicity, and if they were not running for president, it is not clear what else they’d be doing. So it was no great surprise that Donald Trump, who absolutely craves public- ity, decided to get into the race. And since early presidential polls do not measure much except name recognition, I was not surprised that the first national poll conducted after his announcement found that he had the support of 11 percent of the country’s Republican identifiers. The shock is how much support he has gained since then, and how long he has held on to it. According to the realclear- politics website, which collects results from all the major polls and then com- putes a running average, it was July 20 when Trump first broke into the lead in the national polls of Republican identifiers, at which point he was supported by, on average, 17 percent of party adherents. -
Panel of Journalists Explores Nation's Dramatic 2012 Election Campaign
Panel of Journalists Explores Nation’s Dramatic 2012 Election Campaign Panelists Mike Allen Chief White House Correspondent Politico Charlie Cook Editor and Publisher “The Cook Political Report” Chris Wallace Anchor “Fox News Sunday” Judy Woodruff Senior Correspondent “PBS News Hour” Moderator David Rubenstein President The Economic Club of Washington October 11, 2012 Excerpts from the Panel Discussion What Went Wrong for President Obama in the First Debate? Mr. Cook: “The President looked to me like a team that was vastly overconfident, that didn’t fear or respect his opponent and didn’t take it very seriously.” Ms. Woodruff: “I keep thinking of The New Yorker cartoon with Romney standing there and an empty chair….” Mr. Allen: “When you’re President, it’s been four years….since anybody has gotten in your grill.” Mr. Wallace: “I wasn’t a bit surprised that Romney did as well as he did. He did 23 debates in the Republican primaries that lasted 43 hours.” Will the Republicans Gain Control of the Senate? 1 Mr. Cook: “A year-and-a-half ago, I would have said a 60, 70 percent chance of Republicans taking a majority. Now I’d put it down maybe around 40 (percent).” Mr. Allen: “We think whoever gets the White House will get the Senate.” Mr. Wallace: “Right now, I think the conventional wisdom and the Charlie Cook wisdom is it’s probably less than 50-50 that the Republicans will take the Senate.” Can the Democrats Gain Control of the House? Mr. Cook: “It’s a real long shot.” Ms. -
Benghazi.Pdf
! 1! The Benghazi Hoax By David Brock, Ari Rabin-Havt and Media Matters for America ! 2! The Hoaxsters Senator Kelly Ayotte, R-NH Eric Bolling, Host, Fox News Channel Ambassador John Bolton, Fox News Contributor, Foreign Policy Advisor Romney/Ryan 2012 Gretchen Carlson, Host, Fox News Channel Representative Jason Chaffetz, R-UT Lanhee Chen, Foreign Policy Advisor, Romney/Ryan 2012 Joseph diGenova, Attorney Steve Doocy, Host, Fox News Channel Senator Lindsay Graham, R-SC Sean Hannity, Host, Fox News Channel Representative Darrell Issa, R-CA, Chairman, House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform Brian Kilmeade, Host, Fox News Channel Senator John McCain, R-AZ Mitt Romney, Former Governor of Massachusetts, 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee Stuart Stevens, Senior Advisor, Romney/Ryan 2012 Victoria Toensing, Attorney Ambassador Richard Williamson, Foreign Policy Advisor, Romney/Ryan 2012 ! 3! Introduction: Romney’s Dilemma Mitt Romney woke up on the morning of September 11, 2012, with big hopes for this day – that he’d stop the slow slide of his campaign for the presidency. The political conventions were in his rear-view mirror, and the Republican nominee for the White House was trailing President Obama in most major polls. In an ABC News/Washington Post poll released at the start of the week, the former Massachusetts governor’s previous 1-point lead had flipped to a 6-point deficit.1 “Mr. Obama almost certainly had the more successful convention than Mr. Romney,” wrote Nate Silver, the polling guru and then-New York Times blogger.2 While the incumbent’s gathering in Charlotte was marked by party unity and rousing testimonials from Obama’s wife, Michelle, and former President Bill Clinton, Romney’s confab in Tampa had fallen flat. -
Orchestrating Public Opinion
Paul ChristiansenPaul Orchestrating Public Opinion Paul Christiansen Orchestrating Public Opinion How Music Persuades in Television Political Ads for US Presidential Campaigns, 1952-2016 Orchestrating Public Opinion Orchestrating Public Opinion How Music Persuades in Television Political Ads for US Presidential Campaigns, 1952-2016 Paul Christiansen Amsterdam University Press Cover design: Coördesign, Leiden Lay-out: Crius Group, Hulshout Amsterdam University Press English-language titles are distributed in the US and Canada by the University of Chicago Press. isbn 978 94 6298 188 1 e-isbn 978 90 4853 167 7 doi 10.5117/9789462981881 nur 670 © P. Christiansen / Amsterdam University Press B.V., Amsterdam 2018 All rights reserved. Without limiting the rights under copyright reserved above, no part of this book may be reproduced, stored in or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise) without the written permission of both the copyright owner and the author of the book. Every effort has been made to obtain permission to use all copyrighted illustrations reproduced in this book. Nonetheless, whosoever believes to have rights to this material is advised to contact the publisher. Table of Contents Acknowledgments 7 Introduction 10 1. The Age of Innocence: 1952 31 2. Still Liking Ike: 1956 42 3. The New Frontier: 1960 47 4. Daisies for Peace: 1964 56 5. This Time Vote Like Your Whole World Depended On It: 1968 63 6. Nixon Now! 1972 73 7. A Leader, For a Change: 1976 90 8. The Ayatollah Casts a Vote: 1980 95 9. Morning in America: 1984 101 10. -
History of Southern Football Page16
Distribution Agreement In presenting this thesis as a partial fulfillment of the requirements for a degree from Emory University, I hereby grant to Emory University and its agents the non-exclusive license to archive, make accessible, and display my thesis in whole or in part in all forms of media, now or hereafter now, including display on the World Wide Web. I understand that I may select some access restrictions as part of the online submission of this thesis. I retain all ownership rights to the copyright of the thesis. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis. Christian Wayne April 11, 2017 The Manifestation of Southern White Identity in Southeastern Conference (SEC) Football By Christian Wayne Dr. Kim Loudermilk Adviser American Studies Dr. Margaret McGehee Committee Member Dr. Susan Ashmore Committee Member 2017 The Manifestation of Southern White Identity in Southeastern Conference (SEC) Football By Christian Wayne Dr. Kim Loudermilk Adviser An abstract of a thesis submitted to the Faculty of Emory College of Arts and Sciences of Emory University in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the degree of Bachelor of Arts with Honors American Studies 2017 Abstract The Manifestation of Southern White Identity in Southeastern Conference (SEC) Football By Christian Wayne This work examines the football teams of the Southeastern Conference (SEC) and how they are reflections, projections, and bastions of southern white identity. By exploring a history of how a southern, white identity was created in the American South, we can understand how and why football became the cultural institution it is in today’s American South throughout the twentieth century and into present-day. -
DEMOCRATIZING the DEBATES a Report of the Annenberg Working Group on Presidential Campaign Debate Reform
DEMOCRATIZING THE DEBATES A Report of the Annenberg Working Group on Presidential Campaign Debate Reform TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION: THE ISSUE 5 THE GOAL OF REFORM: DEMOCRATIZING THE DEBATE PROCESS 7 Expanding and Enriching Debate Content 8 Broadening the Accessibility of the Debates 18 Improving the Transparency and Accountability of the Debate Process 20 CONCLUSION: 23 APPENDIX ONE: PROCESS 25 Working Group Biographies 26 APPENDIX TWO: SPONSORSHIP 31 APPENDIX THREE: YOUNGEST GROUP LEAST LIKELY TO WATCH MOST OF DEBATE 35 APPENDIX FOUR: 1960-2012 HOUSEHOLD RATINGS TRENDS: PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES 36 APPENDIX FIVE: ELEMENTS IN MEMORANDA OF UNDERSTANDING 37 APPENDIX SIX: AUDIENCE REACTION STUDIES 43 NOTES 47 Democratizing the Debates 3 INTRODUCTION: THE ISSUE The Annenberg Debate Reform Working Group (for Since 1960, transformational shifts in television biographies of members see Appendix One) was created viewing – the plethora of cable channels, Internet by the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University streaming, and other methods of viewing video of Pennsylvania to explore ways to increase the value content – have dramatically eroded the power of and viewership of presidential general election debates, the “roadblock.” Nielsen data show that the percent of taking into account the ways in which the rise of early U.S. TV households viewing the debates has declined voting, the advent of social media, establishment of from 60% in 1960 to about 38% in 2012.2 Additionally new media networks, changes in campaign finance, and Hispanic media now attract substantial audiences. In the increase in the number of independent voters have both the July sweeps of 2013 and 2014, the number one altered the electoral environment.1 It would be difficult network among both those 18-49 and those 18-34 was to overstate the significance of these changes. -
How a Race in the Balance Went to Obama
How a Race in the Balance Went to Obama Doug Mills/The New York Times President Obama, with his family, returned to the White House on Wednesday, after a bruising re-election fight with many twists and turns. By ADAM NAGOURNEY, ASHLEY PARKER, JIM RUTENBERG and JEFF ZELENY Published: The New York Times National Edition, November 7, 2012, P1, P14 Seven minutes into the first presidential debate, the mood turned from tense to grim inside the room at the University of Denver where Obama staff members were following the encounter. Top aides monitoring focus groups — voters who registered their minute-by- minute reactions with the turn of a dial — watched as enthusiasm forMitt Romney spiked. “We are getting bombed on Twitter,” announced Stephanie Cutter, a deputy campaign manager, while tracking the early postings by political analysts and journalists whom the Obama campaign viewed as critical in setting debate perceptions. By the time President Obama had waded through a convoluted answer about health care — “He’s not mentioning voucher-care?” someone called out — a pall had fallen over the room. When the president closed by declaring, “This was a terrific debate,” his re-election team grimaced. There was the obligatory huddle to discuss how to explain his performance to the nation, and then a moment of paralysis: No one wanted to go to the spin room and speak with reporters. Mr. Romney’s advisers monitored the debate up the hall from the Obama team, as well as at campaign headquarters in Boston. Giddy smiles flashed across their faces as their focus groups showed the same results. -
Guest Speakers January 1, 2018 Through May 20, 2021
5 Guest Speakers January 1, 2018 through May 20, 2021 Elizabeth Acevedo, National Book Award-winning poet and author Stuart Agnew ’12, Peace Corps volunteer Alexandria Police Forensics Team Harry Alford and Ajit Verghese, co-founders, humble ventures Azza Altiraifi, disability justice advocate Imam Naeem Baig, Dar Al-Hijrah Islamic Center The Rev. Captain Andrea Baker, U.S. Army chaplain Kimberly Belflower, playwright and fellow at Emory University Dr. Matt Bellace, comedian and expert in neuropsychology Guido Berguido, director, ADOPTA Panama Rainforest Dr. Deb Berry P’16 ’19, Georgetown University research scientist; Matt Collins, National Institutes of Health fellow; Maureen Colburn, executive director, Just Tryan It; Dr. John Marshall ’79 P'11, chief of hematology and oncology, Medstar Georgetown University Hospital; Liza Marshal P’11, cancer survivor; Dr. Victoria Sardi-Brown, co-founder, Mattie's Mom Tamela Blalock ’98, executive at National Cooperative Business Association CLUSA International Richard Blanco, poet Rep. Don Beyer, U.S. House Representative James Blue ’87, producer, PBS NewsHour Scott Boehm P’20, retired U.S. Army, U.S. Department of Defense expert Dr. Kathleen Boggs, NASA Megan Bracy, associate director for community integration, U.S. Commission for Refugee Integration Alison Broadbent, physician assistant Arthur Brooks, best-selling author, Atlantic magazine columnist Mark Brown, public speaker Ray Brown, educator, former EHS faculty Tyler Brown ’99, political consultant Dee Buchanan, former Republican Capitol Hill staffer, and Amy Andryszak, former Democratic Capitol Hill staffer 5 6 James Carville P’16, Democratic strategist, and Mary Matalin P’16, Republican strategist Mary Kate Cary, former speechwriter for President George H.W. -
Stuart Stevens, Romney's Chief Strategist and Svengali, Was Driving to Oxford on a Warm Evening in Late April
Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics and Public Policy Discussion Paper Series #D-80, September 2013 Did Twitter Kill the Boys on the Bus? Searching for a better way to cover a campaign By Peter Hamby Shorenstein Center Fellow, Spring 2013 CNN Political Reporter Research Assistant: Karly Schledwitz Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License. Stuart’s lament Stuart Stevens, Romney’s chief strategist and all-purpose svengali, was driving to Oxford on a warm evening in late April. A sixth-generation Mississippian whose first job in politics was an internship for then-congressman Thad Cochran in the 1970s, Stevens had just flown in from Los Angeles, where he is developing a television project for HBO, to appear on yet another panel looking back on the 2012 campaign. The latest one was being hosted by an old pal, the reporter and author Curtis Wilkie, a veteran of eight presidential campaigns who now teaches journalism at the University of Mississippi. Stevens has never been shy about discussing—or decrying—the state of the political news media. Almost every reporter who covered the 2012 race can recall waking up to find a late-night email from Stevens bemoaning a story, or tweet, about Romney. A number of his compatriots on the Romney campaign, including communications director Gail Gitcho, spokeswoman Andrea Saul, and Deputy Campaign Manager Katie Packer Gage, were also known to fire off barbed emails to reporters about tweets they saw as silly or unfair. Stevens’ missives were often more whimsical or esoteric than mean, but it was clear he harbored some deep resentments about the press and its treatment of his candidate. -
From Edmund Burke to Donald Trump
International Social Science Review Volume 97 Issue 2 Article 16 June 2021 Extended Commentary: The Devolution of Conservatism: From Edmund Burke to Donald Trump Ronald J. Berger Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.northgeorgia.edu/issr Part of the Anthropology Commons, Communication Commons, Economics Commons, Geography Commons, International and Area Studies Commons, Political Science Commons, and the Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public Administration Commons Recommended Citation Berger, Ronald J. (2021) "Extended Commentary: The Devolution of Conservatism: From Edmund Burke to Donald Trump," International Social Science Review: Vol. 97 : Iss. 2 , Article 16. Available at: https://digitalcommons.northgeorgia.edu/issr/vol97/iss2/16 This Response or Comment is brought to you for free and open access by Nighthawks Open Institutional Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in International Social Science Review by an authorized editor of Nighthawks Open Institutional Repository. Extended Commentary: The Devolution of Conservatism: From Edmund Burke to Donald Trump Cover Page Footnote Ronald J. Berger is a professor emeritus of sociology at the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater. This response or comment is available in International Social Science Review: https://digitalcommons.northgeorgia.edu/issr/vol97/iss2/16 Berger: Extended Commentary: The Devolution of Conservatism: From Edmund Burke to Donald Trump The Devolution of Conservatism: From Edmund Burke to Donald Trump There is much talk these days about the need to find unity and common ground in our politics so we can come together and “get things done” for the American people. But for this talk to be anything more than facile, we need to delineate the ideological viewpoints that are in need of communicative discourse. -
Governors and the Presidency: How They Campaign, How They Govern
A New Report Presented by the Eagleton Instute of Polics Center on the American Governor GOVERNORS AND THE PRESIDENCY: HOW THEY CAMPAIGN, HOW THEY GOVERN Walter Shapiro Fellow, Brennan Center for Jusce; presidenal journalist and author Jill Lawrence Naonal columnist for Creators Syndicate and contribung editor to U.S. News and World Report Table of Contents Page The Polling Pendulum 3 On the Trail 4 The Executive Edge 5 The Outsiders 6 On the Record 8 The National Security Dilemma 11 The State of the States 12 The Incumbent as Campaigner 13 The Gubernatorial Difference 14 Governors and the Presidency: How They Campaign, How They Govern "No governor in the nation was more responsive to the challenge of the depression. And he combined executive decision with political address. He faced a Republican legislature hostile to public power, labor, conservation, and social reform. Yet his use of the radio to rouse the folks at home often forced legislators to accept measures they initially opposed." – "The Crisis of the Old Order" by Arthur Schlesinger Jr. The governor, of course, was Franklin Roosevelt. Embedded in that quotation is a theory – or perhaps a myth – that has influenced American politics for the past eight decades. And that is there is no better preparation for the White House than serving as governor, preferably in tumultuous times. Elected governor of New York in November 1928, FDR was just mastering the levers of power when the stock market collapsed less than a year later. In response to the economic crisis, he was the first governor to set up a statewide relief agency and he pioneered putting the jobless to work on state conservation projects. -
CDMC2012 Timeline.Pdf
Date Event 1/22/2010 Governor Mitt Romney wins New Hampshire Straw Poll. 10/1/2010 Rahm Emanuel announces that he will resign as White House Chief of Staff. 2010 midterm election -- Republicans pick up 63 House seats, 6 Senate seats, 11/2/2010 and 6 governors. New Jersey Governor Christie says nothing "short of suicide" will stop questions 11/4/2010 about him running. Governor Sarah Palin confirms she is talking to her family about running for 11/17/2010 president. Robert Gibbs announces he will step down as White House Press Secretary the 1/5/2011 following month to become an outside advisor to the Administration. 1/12/2011 Herman Cain forms exploratory committee. 1/28/2011 Rep. Mike Pence announces he won't run for president. David Axelrod leaves his post as White House Senior Adviser in order to focus 1/28/2011 on running the reelection strategy. 2/3/2011 Rep. Paul Ryan announces Republican budget with $35B in cuts. 2/10/2011 Donald Trump attends CPAC. 2/12/2011 Congressman Ron Paul wins CPAC Straw Poll. 2/22/2011 South Dakota Senator Thune declines to run. U.S. Justice Department announces it won't enforce the Defense of Marriage 2/24/2011 Act. 3/3/2011 Congressman Newt Gingrich forms informal exploratory committee. 3/3/2011 Buddy Roemer forms exploratory committee. 3/21/2011 Tim Pawlenty announces exploratory committee. Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann expected to form a presidential 3/24/2011 exploratory committee. Obama delivers foreign policy address responding to critics on Libya 3/28/2011 intervention.