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Directors' Report 34 DIRECTORS’ REPORT Directors’ Report I. ECONOMIC BACKDROP AND BANKING ENVIRONMENT GLOBAL ECONOMIC around 3%. No deal-Brexit, lingering of In the industrial sector, GVA decelerated to trade tensions between the US and China 6.4% in H2 FY2019 from 8.1% in H1 and SCENARIO and more than expected tightening of 8.3% a year ago, pulled down by a fall in the global financing conditions remain the key growth of manufacturing activity, as subdued Global economic momentum eased risks to growth prospects. demand was reflected in a moderation moderately in 2018 with GDP growth in sales growth. Activity in the services estimated at 3.6%, as per IMF. Persistent sector picked up and became broad- moderation in China, owing to financial INDIA’S ECONOMIC based in H2 FY2019, boosted by resilience tightening amidst rising shadow banking in construction activity and acceleration and local government debt, coupled with SCENARIO in financial, real estate and professional continuing trade conflict with the US had a After decelerating sharply from 8.2% services and public administration, defence dampening effect on overall emerging market in FY2017 to 7.2% in FY18 and then to and other Services. and developing economies’ performance. 7.0% in FY2019, India’s GDP growth is expected to grow by 7.2% (RBI projection) Headline CPI inflation has declined sharply As far as developed economies were in FY2020. Going forward, several factors since mid-2018, driven by the sustained concerned, US economic activity picked appear crucial regarding economic fall in food inflation, the waning away of the up against the backdrop of fiscal stimulus. growth. First, private consumption is direct impact of house rent allowances for However, there now seems to be a expected to get a fillip from measures central government employees, and more question mark over the continuation of such as public spending in rural areas recently, by a sharp fall in fuel inflation. such momentum. The Euro Area grew less and increase in disposable income of Owing to that the average CPI inflation than expected, with uncertainty over Brexit households due to income tax benefits. for FY2019 stood at 3.43% compared to and threat of US tariffs on EU automobiles Second, resolution of stressed assets 3.58% in FY2018. taking a toll on their manufacturing sector. and decline in the level of nonperforming advances (NPAs) on Bank balance sheets The outlook for inflation may be impacted BRICS countries were also no exception is expected to improve credit flows, which by various upside and downside risks. The to this trend. For example, drag on mining, augurs well for economic activity. Third, major upside risks include: geopolitical construction and agriculture pulled down improving capacity utilisation, tailwinds tensions and supply disruptions in the economic growth in South Africa to a from lower oil prices and rate cuts are global crude oil market, volatility in mere 0.8%. Even economic activity in likely to support economic activity. Fourth, international and domestic financial Brazil remained subdued owing to truck projection of ‘near normal’ monsoon this markets, the risk of a sudden reversal drivers’ strike and restrained public and year with weak El Niño will be helpful for in the prices of volatile perishable food private consumption spending. food grains production and subsequently items, fiscal slippages and possibility of for food inflation. below-normal monsoon this year. Among Global merchandise trade is also the downside risks are: a sharper than expected to have slowed down markedly Nevertheless, a few downside risks also anticipated slowdown in global growth and to around 3.9% in 2018 from 4.7% in persist, both on the domestic and global its softening impact on crude oil and other 2017. Furthermore, as per the world fronts: (i) the slowing down of the global commodity prices, and the persistence of trade outlook indicator, which gives the economy may impact prospects of India’s a food supply glut. For FY2020, we expect “real time” information on the trajectory exports and the risk may get accentuated average inflation would be less than 4%. of world trade relative to recent trends, if trade tensions remain unresolved and (ii) the recent level of 96.3 (the lowest since investment has been supported largely by Against the backdrop of slowing global March 2010) indicates that trade growth government-led infrastructure spending trade and commerce-inhibiting trade in coming months will be below long term and there is now a dire need to boost tensions, India’s merchandise exports averages. private investment across sectors. (Y-o-Y) grew by 9.1% in FY2019 vis-à- vis 10.0% in FY18. An important feature Meanwhile, financial conditions tightened Growth in agriculture and allied activities of India’s export basket in recent years moderately in 2018 with monetary decelerated in H2 FY2019 on account has been a shift away from primary and normalisation in the advanced economies. of a number of factors operating in traditional low value-added exports to The US Fed raised the interest rate four conjunction viz., the poor performance of higher value-added manufacturing and times last year consequent to which capital the southwest and northeast monsoons, technology-driven items. This shift has outflows increased from developing lower water reservoir levels in the eastern imparted a measure of resilience to export economies. However financial volatility and western regions, low prices for demand in a hostile international trading has reduced after the Fed adopted a farm produce depressed by the supply environment. The Current Account Deficit dovish stance. glut caused by two bumper harvests in (CAD) increased to 2.6% of GDP during succession and the lack of agricultural Apr-Dec’18 from 1.8 % during Apr-Dec’17 Going forward, with waning fiscal stimulus markets to deal with large excess due to widening of the trade deficit on in the US and weaker European economy, supplies. As monsoon is projected to be account of higher oil prices. As oil prices global growth slowdown is expected near normal (due to weakening of El Niño), started moderating from November’18, to continue in 2019 with GDP growth of it may have positive impact on agricultural the CAD has moved down from 2.9% in production, going forward. Q2 FY2019 to 2.1% in Q3 FY2019. DIRECTORS’ REPORT 35 BANKING ENVIRONMENT With the sustained efforts, the Bank credit The external environment continues to has picked up momentum in 2018-19, after be challenging. IMF’s latest Financial The Indian banking sector has been remaining depressed for nearly two years, Stability Report observes that rising facing a large overhang of balance sheet and grown by 11.96%, its highest level in financial vulnerabilities point to elevated stress. In the year 2017-18, the persisting the last five years, compared to last year medium-term risks to financial stability. deterioration in asset quality necessitated growth of 10%. Aggregate deposits grew Accordingly, the trend to reorganise sharp increase in provisions and for the by 7.58% in 2018-19, compared to 6.2% foreign business in light of the emerging first time since 1993-94, the banking growth in 2017-18. The incremental credit challenges and new opportunities such system as a whole, particularly driven by flows are also getting increasingly broad- public sector Banks (PSBs), registered based, with services accounting for the as regional trade agreements will shape losses. highest share as against personal loans a the things to come. Your Bank has year ago. Credit growth to industry, which already taken many initiatives in this To manage the crisis, the regulator and has turned positive in November 2017 direction, such as reorganisation of its UK supervisor, RBI, has tried for the revival of after more than a year-long contraction, operations. Close monitoring of risk in all the banking system by following a three- has improved, particularly in respect of overseas operations will be pursued. pronged approach: (i) Through Asset Infrastructure, Chemical and Chemical Quality Reviews (AQRs) a fuller recognition products, Engineering and Petroleum, Lastly, the first quarter of current financial of stressed assets is nearing completion Coal products and Nuclear fuels. The year is punctuated by the results of general and provisioning is being policy-driven; (ii) share of credit to agriculture, however, elections. Once this short-term uncertainty In consonance, the implementation of a moderated. is cleared, the course of policy direction new framework for resolution of stressed will also be visible. With monetary policy assets under the overarching mandate The up-tick in credit growth is likely to be already accommodative, a low inflation of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code supported by the progress being made (IBC) is speeding up the de-stressing of under the aegis of the IBC in addressing coupled with manageable fiscal position, balance sheets and (iii) the Government stress on balance sheets of both corporates the future outlook of growth is positive. has undertaken steps for recapitalisation and Banks, recapitalisation of PSBs, and The risks in banking sector is likely to of the PSBs. Reflecting such resolution a positive outlook on the economy. The ebb with the resolution of large ticket IBC efforts, asset quality of the banking sector prevailing negative credit-to-GDP gap cases. This will create room for business currently appears to be on course to indicates that there is sufficient scope for expansion and structural transformation recovery as the load of impaired assets credit absorption and expansion in Bank of Banks. recedes; the first half-yearly decline in lending on a sustained basis. gross NPA ratio since September 2015 and improving Provision Coverage Ratio, being positive signals. Stress test results OUTLOOK suggest further improvement in NPA The last financial year was particularly ratio.
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